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The 2017 French Parliamentary Elections

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The 2017 French Parliamentary Elections BRIEFING PAPER Number , 21 June 2017 By John Curtis The 2017 French parliamentary elections Contents: 1. Results 2. Background 3. What’s next for France? www.parliament.uk/commons-library | intranet.parliament.uk/commons-library | [email protected] | @commonslibrary 2 The 2017 French parliamentary elections Contents Summary 3 1. Results 5 1.1 Political party performance 5 1.2 Turnout 6 1.3 Demography of the new Parliament 7 2. Background 8 2.1 Assembly Elections 8 2.2 Political groups 8 2.3 Party funding 9 3. What’s next for France? 10 3.1 Challenges for Macron’s government 10 Economic reforms 10 State of Emergency 10 Political renewal and ‘corruption’ scandals 11 3.2 The other parties 11 Les Républicains (LR) 11 Parti Socialiste (PS) 12 La France Insoumise (LFI) 12 Front National (FN) 12 3.3 Impact on the UK 12 Contributing Authors: Noel Dempsey, Charts and tables Cover page image copyright: National_Assembly_of_France_-_panoramio by Jarosław Baranowski. Licensed by (CC BY-SA 3.0) / image cropped 3 Commons Library Briefing, 21 June 2017 Summary The 2017 French Parliamentary elections produced an emphatic win for President Macron’s La République En Marche (REM) party. They received 308 seats, and together with the Mouvement Démocrate (MoDEM) party which has joined them in government, they have a significant majority which should allow them to easily carry through their political programme. Turnout, however, was low, particularly in the second round of voting. Nearly 10% of those who voted in the second round spoiled their ballots or left them blank. 75% of the Members of Parliament elected to the National Assembly are new, and a record 39% of them are women. National Assembly elections are run using a two-round voting system. If no candidate achieves more than 50% in the first round, all candidates who achieve a certain threshold of votes (more than 12.5% of registered voters in that constituency), go through to a second round, where the candidate who gains the most votes is elected. Political groups can be formed by parties in the Assembly who can put together more than 15 members. Being able to form such groups gives them access to extra funding, and more influence on the workings of the Assembly. Political parties in France are largely funded by the State, and their funding is linked to their performance in the previous parliamentary elections. Large losses of votes and parliamentary seats, therefore, can have lasting impacts. All the other major political parties must now decide how they will approach the result of the elections. Les Républicains (LR), the main centre-right party, lost a large number of seats, but remain the largest opposition party. They have seen several of their senior figures join Mr Macron’s government. They must decide whether to support Mr Macron’s government in areas where they agree, such as reforms to the economy. The Parti Socialiste (PS), which was the largest party in the previous National Assembly, lost hundreds of seats and millions of votes. The combination of a large loss of state funding and several senior party figures losing their seats in the Assembly mean it may take them some time to recover from such a loss. Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise (LFI) movement, while having enough seats to form a political group in the Assembly, are still behind the PS grouping. While this small number of seats will prevent them from making a big impact in the Assembly, the increased funding that will come from their electoral performance may help them take their message direct to the public. The Front National (FN) increased their seats from 2 to 8, with Marine Le Pen gaining an Assembly seat for the first time. However, they 4 The 2017 French parliamentary elections have fallen short of the 15 seats required to form a party bloc in the Assembly, and they may struggle to make a significant impact on the chamber. There is a debate over what direction the party should take in the future, particularly its approach to France’s membership of the Euro and EU. Despite President Macron’s government’s significant majority, it faces challenges to enact its political programme. Economic reforms have proved difficult for previous administrations to pass, and parts of the reform package such as labour reforms are unpopular with the public. The resignation of three Cabinet Ministers following allegations of impropriety will put a renewed focus on Mr Macron’s promises to ‘clean up’ politics in the country. Mr Macron’s proposal to keep a State of Emergency in place and to adopt some of these powers into legislation, making them permanent, has also caused controversy, particularly among human rights groups. A recent bi-lateral meeting between President Macron and Prime Minister Theresa May suggests that despite the UK’s decision to leave the European Union, the countries will still cooperate on areas of shared interest, such as the challenge of removing extremist content from the internet. 5 Commons Library Briefing, 21 June 2017 1. Results 1.1 Political party performance President Macron’s La République En Marche (REM) party were the clear winners of the election, gaining 308 seats, and 43% of the votes in the second round. They needed only 289 seats for a parliamentary majority. Together with the 42 seats of the Mouvement Démocrate (MoDEM) party who will form part of their government, they will have a majority of over 200 seats. This is a remarkable performance from a party that was only formed in April 2016, and had never before put up a nation-wide slate of candidates. MoDEM, led by veteran centrist politician François Bayrou, who formed an electoral pact1 with REM, improved significantly on their 2012 performance where they gained only 2 seats and less than 1% of the vote. French National Assembly Elections: seats won by party 2012 2017 Party Group Party Abbrev. Number % Number % Centre La République En Marche! REM - - 308 53.4% Centre Democratic Movement MoDem 2 0.4% 42 7.3% Right The Republicans LR 194 34.1% 113 19.6% Right Union of Democrats and Independents UDI - - 18 3.1% Left Socialist Party PS 280 49.2% 29 5.0% Left Radical Party of the Left PRG 12 2.1% 3 0.5% National Front FN 2 0.4% 8 1.4% Othersa Others 87 15.3% 56 9.7% Total 577 101% 577 100% Note: a. Includes deputies who may be be part of wider parliamentary group; - indicates party didn’t stand/exist Source: French Government, Ministry of Interior, accessed 19 June 2017 Les Républicains (LR), lost 82 seats but remain the largest opposition party. They saw several of their senior politicians defect to Macron’s REM, and are currently without a permanent leader. 1 French centrist strikes deal with Macron on parliamentary candidates’, Politico, 13 May 2017 6 The 2017 French parliamentary elections The Parti Socialiste (PS) followed their very poor Presidential election result2, where their candidate achieved only 5 percent of the vote, with a similarly disappointing performance, winning only 29 seats, a loss of 251 from 2012. The party’s leader, Jean-Christophe Cambadélis, announced he would stand down as the results of the second round came in, having already lost his own seat in the first round.3 National Assembly Elections: 2nd round vote share La République En Marche! Democratic Movement The Republicans Union of Democrats and Independents Socialist Party Radical Party of the Left 2012 National Front 2017 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% The Front Nationale (FN) gained 8 seats, up from 2 in the 2012 election, which included a seat for Marine Le Pen, the party’s candidate in the Presidential election. This result falls short of the 15 seats required to form a political group in the Assembly (see Section 2 for the advantages this brings). La France Insoumise (LFI), the radical left grouping led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, gained 17 seats, enough to form a political group in the Assembly, with around 3% of the vote. Turnout at National Assembly Elections 1.2 Turnout Turnout (calculated as valid votes as a proportion of the electorate) 2012 was at a historic low, with less than 48% of the electorate turning out 60% in the first round, compared to 56% percent in 2012. 40% 56.3% 53.3% The abstention rate of over 60% in the second round was the highest 20% since the founding of the Fifth Republic in 1958. Turnout was nearly 0% 10 percentage points down on the first round, while in 2012 there was Round 1 Round 2 a drop of only 3 percentage points. Almost 10% of those who did vote 2017 left their ballots blank or spoiled. 60% Whether the low turnout is due to voter fatigue, as some have 40% 47.6% claimed, or the perceived inevitability of a Macron win as indicated by 38.4% the polls going into the elections, isn’t yet clear. 20% 0% Round 1 Round 2 2 See ‘The French Presidential Election 2017 (second round)’, Commons Library Briefing Paper 7962, 2 May 2017, for a full analysis of the results 3 Macron marches on as his party wins large majority in French parliament’, The Guardian, 19 June 2017 7 Commons Library Briefing, 21 June 2017 1.3 Demography of the new Parliament The demographic make-up of the new Assembly has seen significant changes, in large part due to the more diverse candidates put forward by Macron’s REM party. Three-quarters of the Assembly are new members and a record 223 of the 577 MPs are women4 - around 39%, compared to 32% in the House of Commons.5 There are now 39 members under 30 with the average age of members having dropped more than six years since 2012, decreasing from 54 to 48 years of age.6 4 French election: Macron team complete rout with Assembly win’, BBC News, 19 June 2017.
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