Provide Argentinians with abundant, clean and low cost energy, and transform our country in a World Class Energy Supplier through the massive and responsible development of unconventional resources and through the fast incorporation of renewables, reaching competitive costs for the development of the small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), the industries and the transport.
2 3 MMtoe TWh
4 Power distribution (data for AMBA) Renewable generation Thermal power generation
Upstream O&G Transport and distribution of Oil and Gas Total private investment
5 Power transmission and distribution Renewable energy Thermal power generation
Total public
Other O&G Transport and distribution of natural gas Nuclear
6 EUR / Well 631 kbbl/well Landing points/area 2.5/km2 (2.5/247 acres) MMbbl/Area 1.6 MMbbl/km2 (6.5 kbbl/acre) Unconventional Production 1,143 kbbl/day Plateau 2030 Reservoir to exploite in 25 years 10,434 MMbbl Exploited Area 6,614 km2 / 1.6 MM acres (30%)
EUR / Well 12.9 BCF/well Landing points/area 2.5/km2 (2.5/247 acres) BCF/area 32.25 BCF/km2 (0.13 BCF/acre) Unconventional Production 14.1 BCF/day Plateau 2030 Reservoir to exploit in 25 years 128.6 TCF Exploited Area 3,990 km2 / 987,643 acres (31%) 7 •
Acreage in Vaca Muerta per company
8
31 Pilots 1 Loma Campana YPF Development 2 El Orejano YPF 3 Aguada Pichana Este Total 4 Fortín de Piedra Tecpetrol 5 La Amarga Chica YPF 6 Bandurria Sur YPF 7 Cruz de Lorena - Sierras Blancas Shell 8 La Escalonada Total 9 Rincon de la Ceniza Total 10 Bajo del Choique - La Invernada ExxonMobil 11 Bandurria Centro PAE 12 Pampa de las Yeguas I ExxonMobil 13 Rincon del Mangrullo YPF 14 Aguada de la Arena YPF 15 La Ribera I YPF 16 La Ribera II YPF 17 Aguada Federal Wintershall 18 Bandurria Norte Wintershall 29 24 8 25 28 10 19 Aguada Pichana Oeste - Aguada de Castro PAE 20 Bajada de Anelo Shell 22 9 21 San Roque Total 12 2 21 22 Los Toldos I Sur ExxonMobil 17 18 23 Bajada de Palo Vista Oil & Gas 11 23 14 20 6 24 Bajo del Toro YPF 5 7 19 3 30 25 Cerro Arena YPF 15 1 26 Las Tacanas YPF 4 26 13 16 4 27 Las Tacanas Norte Pampa 27 28 Cerro Las Minas YPF 29 Salinas del Huitrin YPF 30 La Calera Pluspetrol 31 Puesto Rojas Phoenix 10
13 ~
14
Relentless progress through the years but still below potential
Vaca Muerta potential well for a 2,000 m lateral (solid dark line): • Targeted landing zone • Tighter cluster spacing • More clusters per stage
16 17 Notes: *Permian including original entry cost at US$15,000/acre | * Vaca Muerta entry costs based on recent YPF and GyP transactions Source: Wood Mackenzie Midland Permian average 2016-2018
GyP average
Source: Wood Mackenzie M&A tool
21 22 ✓ ✓ ✓
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ : ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ 23
27 28 29 30 31 31 1,600 1,500 250 1,500 NGLs
1,400 Unconventional 1,320 1,300 P1ND + P2 + P3 200 1,200 P1 Developed 1,100 1,012 1,000 870 150 900
800 750
700 648 650 100 600 560 488 500
400
300 50
200
100
- -
32 450 16 Chile: 10 (2019); 30 (2022). Brasil: 3 (2019); 9 (2022); 30 (2025). Associated gas (shale) Mundo (GNL): 40 (2023); 80 (2024); 120 (2025). 13.9 14.0 14.1 400 13.5 14 Unconventional 13.1 12.2 350 P1ND + P2 + P3 12 P1 Developed 10.5 300 10
250 8.4 8 200 6.7 6.3 5.8 5.3 6 150 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.2 4 100
50 2
- 0
33
35 2,500 35 Conventional Oil Conventional Oil
Conventional Natural Gas Conventional Natural Unconventional Oil Gas 30 Unconventional Oil Unconventional Natural 2,000 Gas Unconventional Natural
639 639 Gas
596 596
589 589
408 408
517 517 486 486 434 434 Associates
25 8
8
8
450 450
7
7 7
1,500 7 7
284 284 20
296 296
802 802
791 791
806 806
8 8
8 8
816 816
322 322
843 843
8 8
883 883
6
903 903
7 7
6 6
6 6 828 828
15 6
6 6 5
1,000 342
701 701
5
569 569
3 3
4
452 452 3 3
258 258 10
377 377
307 307
363 363
4 4
350 350
337 337
323 323
310 310
84 84
11 11
296 296
9 9
4
10 10
9 9
9 9
4 4
10 10 283 283
500 10
10 10
270 270
256 256
8 8
243 243
230 230 216 216
5 7
5 5
3 3
4 4
508 508
490 490
472 472
454 454
436 436
418 418
400 400
382 382
364 364
346 346
328 328
310 310 292 292
0 0
2021
2018
2019
2021
2018
2019
2027
2022
2025
2023
2028
2026 2029
2024
2027
2022
2025
2023
2020
2028
2030
2026 2029
2024 2020 2030 36 37 UPSTREAM MIDSTREAM DOWNSTREAM
(0.7 BCF/day each) 2023 = 1.4 BCF/day 2024 = 2.8 BCF/day approximately 3,900 gas wells 2025 = 4.2 BCF/day (production: 5.5 BCF/day = 2 TCF year)
(production:. 4.2 BCF/day)
(production: 1.3 BCF/day)
1.550 km2 => 12% acreage Vaca Muerta (gas window) 38 Bottom up estimation:
o
o
o
o
39 40
▶ ▶ ▶
200km recovery 250km new railway 391km upgraded To Chile Investments in Gas Transport
TGN
Finish Under construction
TGS Investments in Oil Pipelines
P. Hernández 200 OldelVal Medanito YPF-Tecpetrol Loma Campana Lago Pellegrini
Allen 120
Allen – Puerto Rosales pipeline expansion. 60MM USD. 85 • Current capacity: 157 MMbbl/day 60 • Expanded capacity: 220 MMbbl/day
Lago Pellegrini – Allen pipeline expansion. 40km. 30MM USD. • Current capacity : 145 MMbbl/day • Expanded capacity : 289 MMbbl/day
Lago Pellegrini – Medanito pipeline expansion. 120km. 50MM USD. According to the demand forecast, an additional investment of 50MMUSD is estimated in 2026 for the construction of a new section Lago Pellegrini-Medanito. Allen – Puerto Rosales pipeline expansion. Approx. 200MM USD. • 2021 Capacity: 220 MMbbl/day • Target capacity: 415 MMbbl/day
▪
▪
▪
50 Bidding Terms Bids:
Bid (usd) = WU x 5000 (usd/WU) + Bonus* (usd) WU : Working Units offered for 1st Exploration Period. Must be higher than or equal to Minimum Working Units *Bonus is accepted only if WU > Basic WU; to be paid 50% upfront + 50% end of 3rd year exchangeable for WU done in the first 3 years in addition to Offered WUs
Contract Terms
▪ ▪
▪
R factor = (ƩSales-ƩRoyalties)/(ƩE&A+ƩInvestments+ƩOPEX) 51
Investments in Power Transport •
•
•
•
• Now being bidded
• • • •
• • • o 1 o o
o 2 o
o 3 o
Production – MMBBL/d Demand – MMBBL/d Reserves – % Current situation
Capacity Expansion ❖ The exponential growth of non-conventional Oil production in Allen-Puerto Rosales Expansion Forecast Current: ~157 Mbbl/day Argentina motivates the study of the transportation system to identify 450 415 A 2023: ~415 possible bottlenecks and guarantee an adequate infrastructure 400 Mbbl/day planning. 350 ❖ Demand forecast for the period 2019-2023 shows the need to carry out 300 expansion works on the oil transport system. 266 250 220 200 157 Forecast ✓ TA-PR pipeline: Oil Transport System Expansion (OldelVal) 150 most relevant of
Flow (Mbbl/day) Flow 2017 the oil pipeline 100 126 system. 2018 Works needed to supply demand forecast (2019-26) 50 Capacity 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2018 Luján de Cuyo 2020 Year Pipeline Loma Campana – Lago Pipeline expansion 2021 P.Hernández Pellegrini. Lago Pellegrini – Next Steps Allen. (YPF+Tecpetrol) Pipeline expansion 2022 Transandino 60.000 E.B. Medanito – Re Commission de Pipeline expansión Señal Cerro Bayo. A.Mahuida Vaca Muerta Pipeline expansion 2026 Bajo El Choique Estación de Allen – Puerto Noroeste – E.B. 202 Bombeo Lago Rosales. Pipeline OldelVal Proposition 0 Pellegrini. Auca Mahuida. expansion Lago Pellegrini – 43km Crucero Catriel Cerro Bayo Pipeline expansion Medanito. ❖ New Contract Carrier regulation to enable firm offer transport Allen – Puerto Rosales. contracts. Medanito ❖ Time extension of Oldelval concession to match investment Current System: amortization period. La Escondida ✓ 887 Km. ✓ 1.706 Km pipeline. Estimated Loma Campana ✓ 8 Pump Stations Expected Results Lago Pellegrini Investment ✓ 8 Expansion spots 515MM USD ❖ Financial viability of oil pipeline expansions. L.Bastos ❖ More flexibility for producers to match transport contracts with Allen Chichinales C.C.C Chimpay Zorrilla P.Mahuida R.Colorado upstream projects. Algarrobo Salitral P.Rosales
C.I.P.H Centenario Challacó
Conventional production: • • o o o o o
Overall unconventional production profile o o o o o o o o o o o o o ´ Conventional Production: • • o o o o o
Overall unconventional production profile o o o o o o o o o o o o ´ 71 72 73 • •
Plant assumptions: • • • • • • • • • Transportation assumptions: •
• • • • Trucks assumptions: AMBA buses assumptions: Cars assumptions1:
• • •
• • •
• • •
• • • • • • • • •
•
• •
•
• Nominal power incorporated per year [MW]
76MUSD
81USD
203MUSD Precios adjudicados del Programa RenovAr Ronda 1 Ronda 1.5 Ronda 2
Todo Precio Promedio Ponderado: 54.72 USD/MWh Seleccionar ronda:
Tecnología Ronda
Solar Eólica Peq. Hidro Biomasa Biogás Biogás RS Ronda 1 Ronda 1.5 Ronda 2
h
h W
W 150 1.. 150
M
M
/
/
D
D
S
S
U
U
o
o
d
d
a
a
c
c
i
i d
d 100 1.. 100
u
u
j
j
d
d
a
a
o
o
i
i
c
c
e
e
r
r
P P 50 50 50
Solar Eólica Peq. Hidro Biomasa Biogás Biogás RS Ronda 1 Ronda 1.5 Ronda 2 0 20 40 60 80 100
Tecnología Ronda Potencia [MW]
Solar Eólica Peq. Hidro Biomasa Biogás Biogás RS
Tecnología ID Región Provincia Oferent e Nombre del proyect o Pot encia [MW] Precio adj. [USD/MWh] Biogás BG-01 Cent ro Córdoba BIOMAS CROP C.T. Río Cuart o 1 2.00 160.00 BG-02 Cent ro Córdoba BIOMAS CROP C.T. Río Cuart o 2 1.20 160.00 BG-03 Cent ro San Luis ACA / FERSI C.T. Yanquet ruz 1.20 160.00 BG-04 Lit oral Sant a Fe ADECO AGRO C.T. San Pedro Verde 1.42 158.92 BG-05 Cent ro Córdoba FECOFE / COOP. HUINCA R.. C.T. Huinca Renancó 1.62 160.00 BG-06 Lit oral Sant a Fe MARTÍN NACARATO / OTR.. C.T. Biogás Ricardone 1.20 118.00 BG-500 Lit oral Sant a Fe TANONI HNOS S.A. C.T. Bombal Biogas 1.20 165.00 BG-501 BSAS Buenos Aires ARREBEEF S.A. C.T. Arrebeef Energia 1.50 150.00 BG-502 Cent ro Córdoba POLLOS SAN MATEO S.A. C.T. Pollos San Mat eo 2.40 156.00 BG-503 Cent ro Córdoba ACZIA BIOGAS, S.L. C.T. James Craik 2.40 156.00 BG-504 Lit oral Sant a Fe ACZIA BIOGAS, S.L. C.T. Recreo 2.40 156.00 BG-505 Cent ro Córdoba ACZIA BIOGAS, S.L. C.T. San Francisco 2.40 156.00 BG-506 Lit oral Sant a Fe ACZIA BIOGAS, S.L. C.T. Bella It alia 2.40 156.00 BG-507 BSAS Buenos Aires PACUCA S.A. C.T. Pacuca Bio Energia 1.00 171.85 BG-508 Comahue La Pampa AB AGRO S.A. C.T. Ab Energia 2.00 156.85
@DatosMINEM . @Renovables_AR Visualización desarrollada por el Centro de Información Energética . Subsecretaría de Energías Renovables Subsecretaría de Escenarios y Evaluación de Proyectos . Secretaría de Energía Eléctrica Secretaría de Planeamiento Energético Estratégico .
SUBESTACIONESTRANSMISSION ALTA TENSIÓN SUBSTATIONS / MEDIA TENSIÓN ALIMENTADORESSUBSTATION DE MEDIAFEEDERS TENSIÓN 200 60 181 53 Forecast 180 166 50 49 50 160 151 151 46 45 140 39 123 Forecast 40 120 31 43 36 100 30 85 41 25 40 76 74 40 80 67 70 36 20 60 51 49 30 36 25 40 30 10 20 20 10 9 13 6 6 5 3 0 1 0 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
N° Nde° SSEE > >100% 100% de su capacity capacidad N° deN° SSEESSEE entre between 70% y 100% 70% de and su capacidad 100 % capacity N°N de° feeders alim c/restriccion with demand de restriction demanda N°N de° feeders alim en with alarma warning alarms
CENTROS DEDISTRIBUTION TRANSFORMACIÓN SUBSTATIONS MEDIA TENSIÓN / BAJA EDENOREVOLUCIÓN MAXIMUM DE LA DEMANDA DEMAND MÁXIMA DEFORECAST EDENOR MW TENSIÓN 6000 1800 1.634 1600 5500 1400 1.267 Forecast 1.129 5000 1200 1.063 1.005 997 1000 881 4500
800 733 719 Forecast 566 4000 600 426 421 400 3500
200 3000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2500 CCTTCCTT desde since 160160 kVA conwith FC FC mayor > 1,10 a 1,10 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Investments (RTI) in Gas Distribution
•
•
•
•
•