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RISK-BASED APPROACH TO EVALUATE ALLIGATOR GAR ATRACTOSTEUS SPATULA AQUACULTURE IN FLORIDA By LAUREN N. LAPHAM A THESIS PRESENTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA 2019 © 2019 Lauren N. Lapham To my family ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I thank the members of my supervisory committee, Drs. Jeff Hill, Quenton Tuckett, and Josh Patterson, for their support and guidance with my research, scientific writing, and professional development. Thanks also to my professors for their guidance and education in the classroom. I also thank those who assisted in my research, the project team and stakeholders from the Florida Aquaculture Association, Florida Tropical Fish Farms Association, Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Sciences, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Oklahoma Division of Wildlife Conservation, University of Florida, and U.S. Geological Survey, who were essential to the completion of this research. I thank the project team, Jeff Hill, Quenton Tuckett, Josh Patterson, and Allison Durland Donahou, for their involvement and input. In addition, I thank my family and friends for their continued support and encouragement. I am particularly grateful to my parents and grandparents for their support of my education. Funding for this project came from the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC). The UF/IFAS Tropical Aquaculture Laboratory, director Craig Watson, provided facilities for the stakeholder panel meeting. I especially thank the grant management team, Kristin Summers, Sarah Funk, and Kelly Gestring (FWC); also for assistance, David Boozer of the Florida Tropical Fish Farms Association, Tiffany Conner of the Florida Aquaculture Association, and Chelsea Crandall (UF). Finally, I am grateful for and thank the faculty, staff, and students at the UF/IFAS Tropical Aquaculture Laboratory for their support. 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................................................................................. 4 LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................ 7 LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................... 8 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................. 9 ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................... 10 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 12 2 METHODS .............................................................................................................. 16 Biological Synopsis ................................................................................................. 16 Risk Screening ........................................................................................................ 17 Generic Analysis ..................................................................................................... 21 3 RESULTS ............................................................................................................... 29 Biological Synopsis ................................................................................................. 29 Alligator Gar Atractosteus spatula Biological Synopsis .................................... 34 Classification .............................................................................................. 34 Distribution ................................................................................................. 43 Biology ....................................................................................................... 58 Control ....................................................................................................... 65 Potential Florida Distribution ...................................................................... 66 Potential Impact ......................................................................................... 73 Risk Screening ........................................................................................................ 84 Generic Analysis ..................................................................................................... 87 Stakeholder Workshop and Generic Analysis .................................................. 87 Stakeholder Workshop Evaluation ................................................................... 94 4 DISCUSSION ....................................................................................................... 114 Data Gaps and Research Recommendations ....................................................... 118 Management Implications and Risk Mitigation ...................................................... 118 APPENDIX A STAKEHOLDER GENERIC ANALYSIS WORKSHEET ....................................... 122 5 B WORKSHOP EVALUATION FORM ..................................................................... 126 LIST OF REFERENCES ............................................................................................. 128 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCH .......................................................................................... 140 6 LIST OF TABLES Table page 2-1 Stakeholder panel members’ affiliation and experience. Panel members were not compensated or provided with travel funds by the project team for their participation ........................................................................................................ 26 2-2 Project team, affiliations, and title/expertise ....................................................... 27 2-3 Stakeholder presentations, presenters, and affiliations ...................................... 28 3-1 FISK scores for three assessors of Alligator Gar aquaculture in Florida (mean = 4; Δ = 2). The score is the overall score of each assessor, with the overall scores the sum of the scores in each section (Biogeography/Historical (1.01 to 3.05) and Biology and Ecology (3.01 to 8.05)). Scores <1 indicate low risk, scores ≥ 1 and ≤10.25 indicate medium risk ....................................................... 96 3-2 FISK version 2 assessment for Alligator Gar for Florida. The Q ID column corresponds to question identification codes in FISK. Answer codes are N = no, Y = yes, and ? = don’t know and are separated to show answers, justification, and certainty of the two independent assessors. Certainty codes are 1 = very uncertain, 2 = moderately uncertain, 3 = moderately certain, and 4 = very certain ................................................................................................... 98 3-3 Breakout groups and overall risk assessment results. Oponions different within groups where there are multiple risk ratings or certainty values. The composition of breakout groups differed for the two sections (establishment and consequences). Risk levels are H = High, M = Medium, and L = Low. Theoverall risk of establishment is the lower of the four ratings and the overall risk of consequences is the highest rating between environmental and economic (unless both are low, then social/political). The ORP is the average of establishment and consequences, rounded up. Certainty levels are as follows: VU = very uncertain, RU = reasonably uncertain, MC = moderately certain, RC = reasonably certain, and VC = very certain .................................. 112 3-4 Results of the evaluation of the stakeholder risk assessment workshop. All participation was anonymous, with seven attendees providing answers following the completion of the workshop ......................................................... 113 7 LIST OF FIGURES Figure page 3-1 Alligator Gar........................................................................................................ 34 3-2 Juvenile Alligator Gar of normal and leucistic coloration .................................... 37 3-3 Juvenile Alligator Gar ......................................................................................... 38 3-4 Adult Alligator Gar .............................................................................................. 38 3-5 Adult world record Alligator Gar, 2.6 m, 148 kg .................................................. 39 3-6 Platinum (or snow) Alligator Gar ......................................................................... 41 3-7 Map of North American range occurrences of Alligator Gar, including the native range ........................................................................................................ 44 3-8 Known distribution of established Alligator Gar populations in the United States ................................................................................................................. 44 3-9 Map of sustaining, historic, remanent, and stocked populations of Alligator Gar throughout their native range ....................................................................... 45 3-10 Coloration of juvenile Alligator Gar ..................................................................... 62 3-11 Alligator Gar CLIMATCH source map ................................................................. 68 3-12 Alligator Gar CLIMATCH target map in Florida................................................... 69 3-13 RAMP map of climate match for Alligator