Building Resilience to Climate Change in South Caucasus Agriculture Ahouissoussi, Neumann, and Srivastava the WORLD BANK

Building Resilience to Climate Change in South Caucasus Agriculture Change in South Caucasus Climate to Building Resilience Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized DIRECTIONS IN DEVELOPMENT Agriculture and Rural Development Ahouissoussi, Neumann, and Srivastava Neumann, and Srivastava Ahouissoussi, Building Resilience Public Disclosure Authorized to Climate Change in South Caucasus Agriculture Nicolas Ahouissoussi, James E. Neumann, and Jitendra P. Srivastava, Editors THE WORLD BANK Public Disclosure Authorized Building Resilience to Climate Change in South Caucasus Agriculture DIRECTIONS IN DEVELOPMENT Agriculture and Rural Development Building Resilience to Climate Change in South Caucasus Agriculture Nicolas Ahouissoussi, James E. Neumann, and Jitendra P. Srivastava, Editors © 2014 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 17 16 15 14 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpreta- tions, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 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Cover design: Debra Naylor, Naylor Design Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Building resilience to climate change in South Caucasus agriculture / Nicolas Ahouissoussi, James E. Neumann, and Jitendra P. Srivastava, editors. pages cm. — (Directions in development) Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-1-4648-0214-0 (alk. paper) — ISBN 978-1-4648-0215-7 1. Climatic changes—Caucasus, South. 2. Resilience (Ecology)—Caucasus, South. I. Ahouissoussi, Nicolas. II. Neumann, James E., 1962- III. Srivastava, Jitendra, 1940- IV. World Bank. V. Series: Directions in development (Washington, D.C.) QC903.2.C28B85 2014 630.2'086—dc23 2014008437 Building Resilience to Climate Change in South Caucasus Agriculture http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0214-0 Contents Foreword xi Preface xiii Acknowledgments xvii About the Editors xix Abbreviations xxi Overview 1 Key Findings 2 Next Steps: Developing an Action Plan 11 Chapter 1 Introduction and Reasons for Action 13 Overview of Geography, Climate, and Crops in Study Countries 14 Characteristics of the Agriculture Sector 19 Agriculture Sector Capacity to Adapt to Climate Change 21 An Approach for Adapting to Climate Change in the South Caucasus 22 Notes 23 References 24 Chapter 2 Framework and Program Design 25 Study Approach 25 Analytic Tools 28 Criteria for Evaluting Adaptation Options 32 Limitations and Key Challenges 36 Notes 37 References 39 Chapter 3 Armenia: Risks, Impacts, and Adaptation Menu 41 Climate Risk 41 Climate Impacts 47 Adaptation Assessment 50 Evaluation and Prioritization of Adaptation Options 54 Final Menu of Recommended Adaptation Options 58 Building Resilience to Climate Change in South Caucasus Agriculture v http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0214-0 vi Contents Limitations of the Study 64 References 64 Chapter 4 Azerbaijan: Risks, Impacts, and Adaptation Menu 67 Climate Risk 67 Climate Impacts 71 Adaptation Assessment 76 Evaluation and Prioritization of Adaptation Options 81 Final Menu of Recommended Adaptation Options 84 Limitations of the Study 86 References 89 Chapter 5 Georgia: Risks, Impacts, and Adaptation Menu 91 Climate Risk 91 Climate Impacts 97 Adaptation Assessment 101 Evaluation and Prioritization of Adaptation Options 105 Final Menu of Recommended Adaptation Options 108 Limitations of the Study 112 References 115 Chapter 6 Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options in the South Caucasus Region 117 Regional Assessment of Climate Risks and Impacts on Crops and Water Resources 117 Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Measures for the South Caucasus Region 123 Note 126 Chapter 7 Adaptation in the South Caucasus: Opportunities for a Regional Approach 127 Common Adaptation Measures at the National Level 127 Common Adaptation Measures at the Agricultural Region Level 128 Elements of a Regional Approach 131 Establishing a Stronger Regional Presence 133 Challenges for Regional Resource Needs 135 Developing an Action Plan 137 Note 140 References 140 Boxes 2.1 Developing a Range of Future Climate Change Scenarios 31 2.2 Description of Modeling Tools for Impact Assessment 33 Building Resilience to Climate Change in South Caucasus Agriculture http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0214-0 Contents vii 3.1 Policy Focus Area for Armenia: Smallholder Cereal and Livestock Production 60 4.1 Policy Focus Area for Azerbaijan: The Future of Cotton Production 77 5.1 Trends in the Natural Hazards in Georgia 93 5.2 Policy Focus Area for Georgia: Wine Grape Production 112 Figures O.1 Effect of Climate Change on Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Patterns by 2040s for Georgia’s Eastern Lowlands Agricultural Region 5 O.2 National-Level Recommended Measures 7 O.3 Priority Measures in Agricultural Regions 8 2.1 Flow Chart of Major Study Steps 26 2.2 Flow Chart of Analytic Tools for Key Analytic Steps 28 B2.2.1 AquaCrop Model 33 3.1 Average Annual and Growing Season Temperatures in Armenia, 1900–2012 42 3.2 Average Monthly and Growing Season Precipitation in Armenia, 1900–2012 42 3.3 Armenia: Effect of Climate Change on Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Patterns for the Intermediate Agricultural Region in the 2040s 46 3.4 Estimated Effect of Climate Change on Mean Monthly Runoff in the 2040s for All Armenian Basins 48 3.5 National-Level Priority Adaptation Measures for Armenia 58 3.6 Lowlands Agricultural Region Priority Adaptation Measures for Armenia 62 3.7 Intermediate Agricultural Region Priority Adaptation Measures for Armenia 62 3.8 Mountainous Agricultural Region Priority Adaptation Measures for Armenia 63 4.1 Average Annual and Growing Season Temperatures in Azerbaijan, 1900–2012 68 4.2 Average Monthly and Growing Season Precipitation in Azerbaijan, 1900–2012 68 4.3 Predicted Effect of Climate Change on Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Patterns for the Irrigated Agricultural Region, 2040s 72 4.4 Estimated Climate Change Effect on Mean Monthly Runoff in the 2040s for All Azerbaijani Basins 74 4.5 Irrigated Agricultural Region Priority Adaptation Measures 87 4.6 High Rainfall Agricultural Region Priority Adaptation Measures 87 4.7 Low Rainfall Agricultural Region Priority Adaptation Measures 88 Building Resilience to Climate Change in South Caucasus Agriculture http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-0214-0 viii Contents 4.8 Subtropical Agricultural Region Priority Adaptation Measures 88 5.1 Average Annual and Growing Season Temperatures

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