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Attribution of Ecological Change to Warming Across the Tundra Biome

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Attribution of Ecological Change to Warming Across the Tundra Biome ITEX syntheses: Attribution of ecological change to warming across the tundra biome Sandra Angers-Blondin Isla H. Myers-Smith, Anne Bjorkman, Sarah Elmendorf, Team Shrub, ITEX Network, ShrubHub Network and many more University of Edinburgh A warming Arctic… Anne Bjorkman A warming Arctic… Gergana Daskalova The Arctic is warming Temperature Change (ºC/year) Mean Annual Temperature Change 1978 to 2013 A Greening of the Arctic… Jeff Kerby The Arctic is greening Increasing NDVI Decreasing NDVI GIMMS 3g Satellite Data 1982 to 2015 IPCC Reports – detection and attribution IPCC WG2 Chapter 4, Summary report 2014 Why tundra matters – feedbacks Vegetation Change Albedo Nutrient (Reflectance) Cycling Permafrost Carbon Thaw Storage Climate Change Myers-Smith et al. ERL 2011, Crowther et al. Nature 2016, Gestel et al. Nature 2018 The Network approach Shrub Hub International Tundra Experiment High Latitude Drone Ecology Network Tundra Tundra Tea Trait Bag Team Experiment Our research questions… 1. How is tundra vegetation changing? 2. Is climate warming causing vegetation change? Variables of interest: Phenology Change Shrubification Compositional Change Trait Change Phenology Anne Bjorkman Qikiqtaruk – High NDVI Herschel Island Low NDVI Plants are greening up earlier in the spring 18 June 2016 Plant senescence – yellowing of first leaf Growing season 26 June 2016 length Leaf emergence – bud burst 15 August 2016 Myers-Smith et al. in prep. Plants are greening up earlier in the spring Later 18 June 2016 Plant senescence – yellowing of first leaf Growing season ~5 days 26 June 2016 length earlier per decade Leaf emergence – bud burst Earlier 15 August 2016 Myers-Smith et al. in prep. Plants are greening up earlier in the spring Tundra: Change in first leaf date – 1950s to 2010s ~5 days earlier per decade Lilac Honeysuckle Earlier Later Schwartz et al. 2016 Phenology ~ temperature Summer Temperature (°C) High Arctic Low Arctic Prévey et al. GCB 2017 Phenology over time ITEX phenology sites: 150 150 40 40 60 60 30 30 100 100 40 40 20 20 species combinations species combinations species combinations species combinations − − − − Count of sites Count of sites 50 50 20 20 10 10 Count of site Count of site Count of site Count of site 0 0 0 0 0 0 −0.050−0.050−0.025−0.025 0.0000.000 0.0250.025 0.0500.050 −2 −2 0 0 2 2 −6 −6 −3 −3 0 0 3 3 6 6 ChangeChange in summer in summer temperature temperature (°C/year) (°C/year) ChangeChange in leaf in −leafout− outdate date (days/year) (days/year) ChangeChange in flowering in flowering date date (days/year) (days/year) Bjorkman et al. in prep. Phenology ~ snow melt + temperature + sea ice ! Assmann et al. in prep. Detection Attribution +/− ✓ Shrubification Andy Cunliffe It was warmer and shrubbier in the past! Willow pollen: Klemm et al. Paleo 2013 Shrubification 1987 2009 Qiqiktaruk – Herschel Island, Canadian Arctic Shrubification 1987 2013 Qiqiktaruk – Herschel Island, Canadian Arctic Shrubification 1987 2014 Qiqiktaruk – Herschel Island, Canadian Arctic Shrubification 1987 2015 Qiqiktaruk – Herschel Island, Canadian Arctic Shrubification 1987 2016 Qiqiktaruk – Herschel Island, Canadian Arctic Shrubification 1987 2017 Qiqiktaruk – Herschel Island, Canadian Arctic Shrubification Phenology Historical Ecology Dendroecology Ecological Monitoring Experiments Myers-Smith et al. ERL 2011, Myers-Smith et al. 2017 Shrubs increase ~ warming Tall shrubs of increasing abundance Probability Summer temperature change (ºC) Elmendorf et al. NCC 2012, PNAS 2016 Shrub height ~ experimental warming (standardized) Increase in height height in Increase Canopy Shrubs Forbs Grams Effects of warming on vegetation height Elmendorf et al. Ecol. Lett. 2012 Shrub growth ~ temperature Low sensitivity (∆AIC < 5) High sensitivity ((∆AIC = 40) × Not sensitive to climate Myers-Smith et al. NCC 2015, Myers-Smith et al. J. Ecol. 2017 Detection Attribution +/− ✓ + ✓ Plant composition Plant cover ~ time Myers-Smith et al. in review Plant cover ~ time Myers-Smith et al. in review Plant cover ~ time Myers-Smith et al. in review Plant cover ~ time ITEX plant cover sites: Elmendorf et al. NCC 2012, PNAS 2016 Plant community change favours warm-loving species More warm loving Elmendorf et al. NCC 2012, PNAS 2016 Detection Attribution +/− ✓ + ✓ +/− ✓ Traits Sandra Angers-Blondin The traits of species, VegetationTrait not their identity, affect change ecosystem function Leaf traits link to decomposition and carbon cycling Specific Leaf Leaf Area (SLA) Nitrogen (N) Rates of photosynthesis & decomposition warming Carbon uptake, storage, and release CO2 Trait change ~ warming expected observed Observed: Plant height (cm) Plant height changes in line with predictions expected But other traits like SLA lag observed Specific Leaf Area (mm/mg) Summer Time Temperature (ºC) Bjorkman, et al. in revision How will plants respond to future change? Warming Tundra Trait Common garden experiments Team experiments Estimates of traits in non- + + = analog warmer climates Detection Attribution +/− ✓ + ✓ +/− ✓ + (height) ✓(height) /✗(other) Our research questions… 1. How is tundra vegetation changing? 2. Is climate warming causing vegetation change? Other drivers of change Nitrogen Herbivory fertilization Fire CO2 Fertilization Below-ground matters: up to 80% of tundra biomass Simplicity: attribution of vegetation change to climate ∆ Phenology Climate Warming ∆ Composition ∆ Trait Complexity: direct versus indirect mechanisms Sea Ice Melt ∆ Phenology Climate Warming ∆ Composition Carbon Storage Herbivores Permafrost Thaw ∆ Trait In summary… 1. How are tundra ecosystems changing? • Changing phenology (some of the time) • Shrubification and increased plant cover and height 2. Is climate warming causing vegetation change? • Plant phenology and growth is climate sensitive • Plant communities are responding to warming Sandra Angers-Blondin Where we quantify shrub change? Climate Warming Sea Ice Melt Permafrost Thaw Global Change Drivers Compositional Change Phenology Change Trait Change Tundra Ecosystem Reponses Surface Reflectance Trophic Impacts Carbon Storage Ecosystem- level Impacts Jeff Kerby Thank you! For more information… https://teamshrub.com/ [email protected] @TeamShrub #TeamShrub Less vegetation More vegetation Less carbon in biomass and More carbon in biomass and more carbon in soils? less carbon in soils? 8GIGVCVKQPEJCPIG %1 UNQYGT% HCUVGT% E[ENKPI E[ENKPI %1 NKVVGT NKVVGT FGEQORQUKVKQP FGEQORQUKVKQP.
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