Demystifying Climate Change Session 6

CO2 and Other Greenhouse Gases: Where do they come from? Where do they go? How are they regulated? Burp… OLLI at Illinois Spring 2021

D. H. Tracy [email protected] 418.53 ppm Mar 6, 2021

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 2 Course Outline

1. Building Blocks: Some important concepts 2. Our Goldilocks Earth: a Radiative Balancing Act 3. The Role of the Atmosphere: Greenhouse Gases & Clouds 4. Global Circulation and Dynamics of the Earth System: Oceans, Atmosphere, Biosphere, Cryosphere, People, Lithosphere 5. Natural Variability of the Climate, short and long term. Ice Ages 6. Carbon Dioxide and other Greenhouse Gases: Where do they come from, where do they go, how are they regulated? 7. Impacts and Future Projections for Global Warming -- Uncertainties 8. Amelioration Strategies. The Climate Debate. Policy Options.

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 3 Remember CO2 Saturation?

400ppm CO2 T260K P0.5 L6.4m

100%100% Lesson: Blue: 800 ppm 80% Greenhouse Gases 4 ppm are much more Red: potent, per ppm, 400 ppm 60% when at low 1 ppm concentrations:

40% Not saturated. Absorption of Full Atmosphere Full of Absorption

20% Absorption of Full Atmosphere ofFull Absorption

0% 8.5 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Wavelength (mm) Wavelength (m) 3/9/21 Climate Change 6 4 Actual Surface Temperature vs. GH Gas Concentration Doublings

Behavior Expected for Linear Increase Minor/Trace Gases ∆T2X TSURF 2x

Log Increase

Saturation TSKIN setting in 254 K (-2F) Doublings

T 0 1 1 1 1 1 /128 x /64 x /32 x /16 x /8 x ¼ x ½x 1x 2x 4x 8x

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 Concentration of GH Gas → 5 ∆T Full Atmosphere: Water Vapor + CO2 Leave A Window at 10-11 m

400ppm CO2 T260K P0.5 L6.4m

100%100% Window 80% Origin of the LW IR Atmospheric CO2 60%

Window 40% Absorption of Full Atmosphere Full of Absorption

20%

0% 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

17m-atm H2O T296K P1.0 L17m Wavelength (mm)

100%100% Window

80%

60%

H2O

40% Absorption of Full Atmosphere Full of Absorption

20%

0% 4.8 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 18 20 Wavelength (mm) 3/9/21 Climate Change 6 6 3/9/21 Climate Change 6 7 Radiative Forcing as of 2011 (IPCC AR5)

IPCC AR5 SPM-5

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 8 Greenhouse Gas Radiative Forcing as of 2011 (IPCC AR5)

Long- lived Gases

Short- lived * Gases

Watts/m2 relative to 1750 IPCC AR5 SPM-5

3/9/21 *Non-Methane VOC’s Climate Change 6 9 like Ethanol, Acetone, Formaldehyde Earth’s Energy Budget

Net solar 240.5 W/m2 Net IR out 239.9 W/m2

Convection into Troposphere

Dry Wet

Net Absorption 0.6 W/m2 geothermal etc. 3/9/21 0.13 Climate Change 6 10 Water H2O

a very important GH Gas -- but not considered a Radiative Forcing agent

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 12 Water Content of Atmosphere Limited by Condensation

140% Changes in Surface Temperature

120% will automatically cause the H H amount of water vapor in the O 100% atmosphere to change. Water Vapor 100% Content of a R.H. 80% T  H O  Greenhouse  T  Layer of the 2 Atmosphere 60% T  H2O  Greenhouse  T  50% 40% R.H.

20%

0% Water Feedback -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 T (C) Approximately T (F) 0 50 100 150 200 Doubles the Effect of Any Forcing 3/9/21 Climate Change 6 13 Water is on Autopilot

• No external intervention could feasibly directly affect

H2O vapor content of atmosphere – but indirectly any Forcing can and does affect water vapor

• Could the Positive Feedback run away? – Inducing Iceball Earth or – Venus-like Sauna Earth * van der Ent & Tuinenburg (2017)

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 14 Rough Timeline of Past Glaciations

Baykonurian Gaskiers Mirinoan Andean-Saharan (Quaternary) Pongola Huronian Antarctic Sturtian Karoo* 0.73

0.53 Hadean 0.33 0.13

-0.08 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 4.5 4 3 2 1 400 100 25 5 0 Billions of Years Ago Millions of Years Ago Snowball

Data source: Wikipedia “Late Paleozoic Icehouse” Table Earth? * AKA Late Paleozoic Icehouse

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 15 Sauna Earth?

140% T  H2O  Greenhouse  T 

120% H H O Upper layers of T = 254K 100% atmosphere are very SKIN Water Vapor 100% cold (< 254K) due to R.H. Greenhouse effect, so Content of a 80% a water atmosphere collapses from the top. Layer of the It seems that a H2O- Atmosphere 60% only sauna earth is impossible. 50% 40% R.H.

20% Ice & Convection Liquid 0% -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 T (C) T (F) 373 K 0 50 100 150 200

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 16 Questions about Greenhouse Gases in General or Water in Particular?

? 140% 120% H H O 100% 100% R.H. 80%

60% Long- lived 50% Gases 40% R.H.

20%

Short- 0% lived * -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 T (C) Gases T (F) 0 50 100 150 200

Climate Change 5 3/2/2021 17 Carbon Dioxide CO2

…the Gorilla in the room

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 18 Elemental Abundances

Solar System: Earth Crust:

1. Hydrogen 1. Oxygen Carbon Dioxide CO 2. Helium 2. Silicon 2 3. Oxygen 3. Aluminum 4. Carbon 4. Iron 5. Nitrogen 5. Calcium 6. Neon 6. Sodium

10-15 Carbon

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 19 Elemental Carbon (12C) Forms (Allotropes)

Graphene Graphite Diamond

C60

Buckminsterfullerene Carbon Nanotubes Amorphous Carbon

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 20 Carbon Compounds Gases Organic Compounds Inorganic Compounds Octane CO 2 Hydrogen Cyanide

H C N

Methane Calcium Carbonate CH4 Ethanol ++ = Ca CO3

Propane THC ─ O C ─ C3H6 O

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 21 Carbon Compounds Gases Organic CompoundsPolarizers Inorganic Compounds Chalk Octane CO 2 Hydrogen Cyanide

H C N Forams

Methane Calcium Carbonate CH4 Ethanol Mollusc ++ = Ca CO3 Shells ++ Ca O THC ─ Propane C ─ C H O 3 6 Limestone Corals O

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 22 Tonnage of Carbon vs. CO2

C 1 Ton of Carbon …. 12 makes CO2 16 16 12 3.7 Tons of CO2 44 3/9/21 Climate Change 6 23 Example: 2020 US Per Capita Carbon Emissions

3.7 tons of Carbon or

13.7 tons of CO2

per capita, per year

Le Quere et al, Global Carbon Budget 2018 Fig 5 Earth System Science Data.net edgar.jrc.ec.Europa.eu for 2019 carbonbrief.org for 2020 3/9/21 Climate Change 6 24 1 Gigaton of Carbon

1.09 km (GtC)

Willis Tower Chicago

Brilliant—cut diamond

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 25 1 Gigaton of Carbon (GtC)

Willis Tower Chicago

 1 mile 3/9/21 Climate Change 6 26 Carbon Cycle as of 2011

IPCC AR5 WG1 Fig. 6.1

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 27 Permafrost & “Surface” Atmosphere Living Soils Vegetation Methane Hydrates 830 1500-2400 Carbon 450 - 650 1700-2500 Inventory Fossil Fuel Reserves Hydrocarbons (GtC) 1000 - 2000

Marine Carbonate Calcium Carbonate Upper Ocean Sediments Shells 900 1700-2500

Deep Ocean 38,000

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 28 Deep Ocean Permafrost & Atmosphere Living Soils Vegetation Methane Hydrates 830 1500-2400 “Surface” 450 - 650 1700-2500 Fossil Fuel Reserves Carbon 1000 - 2000 Marine Carbonate Upper Ocean Sediments Inventory 900 1700-2500 (GtC)

Deep Ocean 38,000

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 30 Permafrost & Atmosphere Living Soils Vegetation Methane Hydrates 830 1500-2400 Total 450 - 650 1700-2500 Fossil Fuel Reserves Carbon 1000 - 2000 Marine Carbonate Upper Ocean Sediments Inventory 900 1700-2500 (GtC)

Deep Ocean 38,000

Carbon in Rocks 50,000,000 3/9/21 Climate Change 6 31

Carbon in Limestone Rock (CaCO3) 40,000,000

Carbon in Shale Rock 10,000,000 Permafrost & Atmosphere Living Soils Vegetation Methane Hydrates 830 1500-2400 450 - 650 1700-2500

Fossil Fuel Reserves 1000 - 2000

Marine Carbonate Upper Ocean Sediments 900 1700-2500

Deep Ocean Total 38,000 Carbon Inventory (GtC) Carbon in Limestone Rock (CaCO3) 40,000,000

Carbon in Shale Rock 10,000,000

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 32 Atmosphere Living Vegetation 830 450 - 650

Permafrost & Atmosphere Living Soils Vegetation Methane Hydrates 830 1500-2400 450 - 650 1700-2500

Fossil Fuel Reserves 1000 - 2000

Marine Carbonate Upper Ocean Sediments 900 1700-2500

Deep Ocean Total Fossil Fuel Reserves38,000 Carbon 1000 - 2000 Inventory (GtC) Carbon in Limestone Rock (CaCO3) 40,000,000

Carbon in Shale Rock 10,000,000

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 33 If All those 50 Million Gigatons of Carbon were put into the

Atmosphere as CO2

• CO2 would increase 60,000 fold

• Air would contain 37 atmospheres of CO2

• That’s just 40% of Venus CO2 , but enough to cook the surface to many hundreds of F

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 34 What Happens When a

CO2 Molecule Wanders into a Drop of Water?

It may just dissolve in the water and float around or It may react with the water

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 35 A CO2 Molecule and an H2O can join up to form Carbonic Acid

O H Carbonic Acid O H O C + O → H C H O O H2CO3

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 37 A CO2 Molecule and an H2O can join up to form Carbonic Acid

O H Carbonic Acid O H O C + O → H C H O O H2CO3

… which can dissociate under the right  Dissociate conditions to form a Bi-Carbonate ion + a Hydrogen ion… H - H+ - Hydrogen Ion HCO3 Bi-Carbonate Ion 3/9/21 Climate Change 6 38 A CO2 Molecule and an H2O can join up to form Carbonic Acid

O H Carbonic Acid O H O C + O → H C H O O H2CO3 … and can further dissociate into a Carbonate ion  Dissociate

H+ - + H+ H H = CO3 Hydrogen Ions - Hydrogen Ion HCO3 Carbonate Ion Bi-Carbonate Ion 3/9/21 Climate Change 6 39 A CO2 Molecule and an H2O can join up to form Carbonic Acid

O H Carbonic Acid O H O C + O → H C H O O … which is what sea H2CO3 animals need to Ca2+ make shells…  Dissociate

H+ - + H+ H H = CO3 Hydrogen Ions - Hydrogen Ion HCO3 Carbonate Ion Bi-Carbonate Ion 3/9/21 Climate Change 6 40 A CO2 Molecule and an H2O can join up to form Carbonic Acid

O H Carbonic Acid O H O C + O → H C H O O H2CO3  Dissociate

H+ - + H+ H H = CO3 Hydrogen Ions - Hydrogen Ion HCO3 Carbonate Ion Bi-Carbonate Ion 3/9/21 Climate Change 6 42 O The Form CO Takes in Water H Carbonic Acid 2 O H O C + O → H C H O O Depends on pH H2CO3  Dissociate

H+ - + H+ H H = CO3 Bi- Hydrogen Ions - Hydrogen Ion & Carbonic HCO3 Carbonate Ion Carbonate Bi-Carbonate Ion Acid Carbonate

Rain … form depends on pH of water: Water Sea Water Low pH acidic pH 5.6 pH 8.05 and falling High pH basic

serc.Carleton.edu (after Homen 1992)

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 43 O The Form CO Takes in Water H Carbonic Acid 2 O H O C + O → H C H O O Depends on pH H2CO3  Dissociate

H+ - + H+ H H = CO3 Bi- Hydrogen Ions - Hydrogen Ion & Carbonic HCO3 Carbonate Ion Carbonate Bi-Carbonate Ion Acid Carbonate

CO2 in North Rain Pacific Water Sea Water pH 5.6 pH 8.05 and CO falling 2 CO2 in Seawater

pH pH

serc.Carleton.edu (after Homen 1992)

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 44 Weathering

Rain • pH 7 is neutral Drop • pH 5.6 weakly acidic pH 5.6 Clean Air with • Can dissolve

410 ppm CO2 limestone, e.g.

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 45 Weathering

Rain Drop pH 5.6 ? Silicate Rocks

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 46 pH 5.6 Weathering

Simple Example: Wollastonite Calcium Silicate

CaSiO3 Silicate Rocks

Rivers to Ocean ++ = 2 CO2 + 3 H2O + CaSiO3 → Ca + 2 HCO3 + H4SiO4  Diatoms Rain Rock Makings of CaCO3 Shells for Molluscs, Water 2 H2O + SiO2 Forams, Corals etc.

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 47 pH 5.6 Weathering

Simple Example: Wollastonite Calcium Silicate

CaSiO3 Silicate Rocks

Rivers to Ocean ++ = 2 CO2 + 3 H2O + CaSiO3 → Ca + 2 HCO3 + H4SiO4  Diatoms Rain Rock Makings of CaCO3 Shells for Molluscs, Water 2 H2O + SiO2 Forams, Corals etc.

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 48 pH 5.6 Weathering

Simple Example: Wollastonite Removing CO2 from the Air Calcium Silicate (and hence from all CaSiO3 Silicate Rocks Surface Reservoirs) Rivers to Ocean ++ = 2 CO2 + 3 H2O + CaSiO3 → Ca + 2 HCO3 + H4SiO4  Diatoms Rain Rock Makings of CaCO3 Shells for Molluscs, Water 2 H2O + SiO2 Forams, Corals etc.

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 49 Long Term Carbon Cycle: Weathering Volcanism Our Carbon “Thermostat” removes CO2 adds CO2  0.1 GtC/yr  0.1 • Weathering reaction removes GtC/yr CO2, sends CaCO3 to oceans • Ocean animals make shells of

CaCO3 which fall to bottom • Limestone subducts under continents via plate tectonics, into the molten mantle • Carbonates break down in

mantle and release CO2

• CO2 escapes via volcanism to atmosphere and ocean Patricia Shapely (butane.chem.uiuc.edu)

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 50 Long Term Carbon Cycle: Weathering Volcanism Our Carbon “Thermostat” removes CO2 adds CO2  0.1 GtC/yr  0.1 • Weathering reaction removes GtC/yr CO2, sends CaCO3 to oceans • Ocean animals make shells of

CaCO3 which fall to bottom • Limestone subducts under continents via plate tectonics, into the molten mantle • Carbonates break down in

mantle and release CO2

• CO2 escapes via volcanism to atmosphere and ocean Patricia Shapely (butane.chem.uiuc.edu)

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 51 Long Term Carbon Cycle: Weathering Volcanism Our Carbon “Thermostat” removes CO2 adds CO2  0.1 GtC/yr  0.1 • Weathering reaction removes GtC/yr CO2, sends CaCO3 to oceans • Ocean animals make shells of So who cares about such small flows? CaCO3 which fall to bottom Imagine an imbalance of 0.1 GtC/year. • Limestone subducts under continents via plate tectonics, Then the surface carbon inventory of into the molten mantle 50,000 GtC could disappear (or double) 50,000 • Carbonates break down in in a time of only = 500,000 years 0.1 mantle and release CO2

• CO2 escapes via volcanism to atmosphere and ocean Patricia Shapely (butane.chem.uiuc.edu)

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 52 Long Term Carbon Cycle: Weathering Volcanism Our Carbon “Thermostat” removes CO2 adds CO2  0.1 GtC/yr  0.1 • Weathering reaction removes GtC/yr CO2, sends CaCO3 to oceans • Ocean animals make shells of So who cares about such small flows? CaCO3 which fall to bottom Imagine an imbalance of 0.1 GtC/year. • Limestone subducts under continents via plate tectonics,It didn’tThen happen the surface here.carbon inventory Why not?of into the molten mantle 50,000 GtC could disappear (or double) 50,000 • Carbonates break down in in a time of only = 500,000 years 0.1 mantle and release CO2

• CO2 escapes via volcanism to atmosphere and ocean Patricia Shapely (butane.chem.uiuc.edu)

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 53 Regulation of Long Term Carbon Cycle

What Controls CO2 this Weathering Reaction?

• Amount of CO2 • Temperature

CaSiO3 CO2 • Amount of H2O • Fresh Exposed Rock

CaCO3

CO2

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 54 Regulation of Long Term Carbon Cycle

What Controls CO2 this Weathering If CO2 in atmosphere goes Reaction? up for any reason….. • Amount of CO2  • Temperature  • Temperature Increases CO CaSiO3 2 • Amount of H2O  • Precipitation Increases • Fresh Exposed Rock

CaCO3

CO2

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 55 Regulation of Long Term Carbon Cycle

if CO2 in atmosphere goes up , • the Weathering removal reaction speeds up • … and CO goes down  CaCO3 2

CO2

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 56 Regulation of Long Term Carbon Cycle

if CO2 in atmosphere goes up , • the Weathering removal reaction speeds up • … and CO goes down  CaCO3 2

CO2

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 57 Regulation of Long Term Carbon Cycle

What Controls CO2 this Weathering Reaction? • Amount of CO 2  Negative • Temperature  Feedback CO CaSiO3 2 • Amount of H2O  • Fresh Exposed Rock

• Relatively new tropical mountain ranges play key role • These occur along volcanic arcs • Volcanic arcs occur intermittently CaCO3 as continents drift CO2

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 59 Tropical Mountain Building Eras may Trigger Glaciation Periods (like the one we are in) Francis Macdonald (UC Santa Barbara 2018)

Papua New Guinea

Group claims high correlation between tropical volcanic mountain building periods and

glacial ages over last 500 Million Science (Dec 28 2018) years.

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 60 Yet Another Graphic Showing Long-term Carbon Cycle

SkepticalScience.com (2013) 3/9/21 Climate Change 6 61 Mashup of Paleo-CO2 Estimates

Gavin Foster, Bristol U (2014)

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 62 Mashup of Paleo-CO2 Estimates

Gavin Foster, Bristol U (2014)

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 63 Mashup of Paleo-CO2 Estimates

So, depending on what we do going forward, by the end of this century we could have CO2 levels not seen in 50-200 million years

Gavin Foster, Bristol U (2014)

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 64 Questions about CO2 and the Long Term Carbon Cycle?

CO2 Permafrost & Atmosphere Living Soils Vegetation Methane Hydrates 830 1500-2400 ?450 - 650 1700-2500 Fossil Fuel Reserves 1000 - 2000

Marine Carbonate Upper Ocean Sediments CaSiO CO 900 1700-2500 3 2

Deep Ocean 38,000

CaCO3

CO2

Carbon in Rocks Climate Change 5 3/2/2021 65 50,000,000

Carbon in Limestone Rock (CaCO3) 40,000,000

Carbon in Shale Rock 10,000,000 Rough Timeline of Past Glaciations

Baykonurian Gaskiers Mirinoan Andean-Saharan (Quaternary) Pongola Huronian Antarctic Sturtian Karoo* 0.73

0.53 Hadean 0.33 0.13

-0.08 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 4.5 4 3 2 1 400 100 25 5 0 Billions of Years Ago Millions of Years Ago Snowball

Data source: Wikipedia “Late Paleozoic Icehouse” Table Earth? * AKA Late Paleozoic Icehouse

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 66 Figuring Out Where a Glaciated Rock Was… Way Back Then 225 Ma

Nizam & Abdullah 2006

NASA When geologists find a glaciated rock formation, Modeled Magnetic Field they have to figure out where it was at the time… During a Reversal

Now Now 170 Ma Wikimedia (from USGS) Hundreds of Random Flips The embedded magnetic field is one way – but it is 3/9/21 Climate Change 6 tricky due to the many field reversals over time… 67 There Have Been Several Glaciated Periods

Iceball Earth or Slushball Earth in the Neoproterozoic is • Quite Possible • Compatible with Models • Ice Albedo Feedback • Water Vapor Feedback Harland (1965) • Continents near equator suggested these • Unprovenopentextbc.ca/geology

were global ice ages Mills et al Nature Geoscience (2011)

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 68 Snowball Earth Scenario according to Dennis Hartmann (U Washington)

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 69 Snowball Earth Scenario according to Dennis Hartmann (U Washington)

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 70 Snowball Earth Scenario according to Dennis Hartmann (U Washington)

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 71 Snowball Earth Scenario according to Dennis Hartmann (U Washington)

Extremely high CO2 concentrations would be needed to overcome the Albedo effect and start melting the ice…

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 72 … a continuation of the normal process

Snowball Earth Scenario according to Dennis Hartmann (U Washington)

But with land and oceans mostly covered with ice,

there was no chemical weathering to remove CO2 from the atmosphere … so it continued to accumulate for millions of years

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 73 Snowball Earth Scenario according to Dennis Hartmann (U Washington)

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 74 Snowball Earth Scenario according to Dennis Hartmann (U Washington)

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 75 Snowball Earth Scenario according to Dennis Hartmann (U Washington)

… over millions of years!

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 76 Short Term Carbon Cycles

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 77 Permafrost & “Surface” Atmosphere Living Soils Vegetation Methane Hydrates 830 1500-2400 Carbon 450 - 650 1700-2500 Inventory Fossil Fuel Reserves Hydrocarbons (GtC) 1000 - 2000

Marine Carbonate Sediments Calcium Carbonate Upper Ocean Shells 900 1700-2500

Deep Ocean 38,000

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 78 Deep Ocean 38,000 Highly Simplified Depiction of Major Short-term Carbon Flows (as of 12 years ago)

• Atmosphere • Plants • Soil • Fossil Fuel • Ocean Surface Note the relatively huge amounts of Carbon • Deep Ocean being exchanged between the various reservoirs on an annual basis. All quantities in (GtC) or GtC/year. Red are human contributions.

3/9/21 DOE (2008) Climate Change 6 79 The COVID Effect:

CO2 emissions dipped in 2020

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 80 Zhu Liu et al, Nature Communications (2020) World 35 Gtons

CO2 30 Emissions 25 1750-2019 [Fossil Fuel 20 and Cement only] 15

0 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2019

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 81 45 Global Anthropomorphic CO2 Budget (Approximate) 30

Fossil Fuel & Industry 15

Land Use Change Gt 0 Ocean Sink CO2 Land Sink -15

Atmospheric Growth -30

-45 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2019 Global Carbon Project: CarbonBrief.org (2020)

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 82 Short Term Carbon Cycle as of 2011

IPCC AR5 WG1 Fig. 6.1

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 83 Short Term Carbon Cycle in Ocean as of 2011

IPCC AR5 WG1 Fig. 6.1

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 84 CaCO3 Dissolves below the CCD Calcium Carbonate more soluble at: (Carbonate Compensation Depth) • Lower temperatures • Higher pressures

• lower pH (more CO2)

Aragonite

CO 2 Calcite

Corrosive

Hope Owen (Oregon State U) No CaCO3 shells in deeper water 3/9/21 Climate Change 6 85 Questions about Snowball Earth ? or the Short Term Carbon Cycle?

Snowball Earth?

Climate Change 5 3/2/2021 86 Methane CH4

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 87 Greenhouse Gas Radiative Forcing as of 2011 (IPCC AR5)

Long- lived Gases

Short- lived * Gases

Watts/m2 relative to 1750 IPCC AR5 SPM-5

3/9/21 *Non-Methane VOC’s Climate Change 6 88 like Ethanol, Acetone, Formaldehyde CH4

Shetland Islands Mauna Loa Atm Lifetime ~ 10 y Australia

Data from Antarctic ice cores. Note that concentration follows Antarctica ice ages…

1750 CE value Because of the relatively short half- life of methane in atmosphere, CH4 generated in northern hemisphere doesn’t get fully mixed into south.

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 EPA 2016 89 CH4

Shetland Islands Mauna Loa Atm Lifetime ~ 10 y Australia

Antarctica

1750 CE value

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 EPA 2016 90 CH4

Shetland Islands Mauna Loa Atm Lifetime ~ 10 y Australia

Antarctica

1750 CE value

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 EPA 2016 91 GHGSAT Eight Methane Leaks Observed in Oil Field in Central Turkmenistan [GreenHouse Gas Satellite] Feb. 1, 2021 Detects Methane Emissions from Space

GHGSAT Iris & Hugo Satellites

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 92 Methane from Permafrost and Hydrates

USGS 3/9/21 Climate Change 6 93 Methane Halogenated Gases

CH4 C CFC’s ChloroFluoroCarbons

Freon-12 Cl

CCl F F 2 2 C

Cl F

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 94 Methane Halogenated Gases

CH4 C CFC’s ChloroFluoroCarbons

largely phased out in favor of… HydroFluoroCarbons Freon-12 HFC’s Cl

CCl F F 2 2 C

Cl F

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 95 Methane Halogenated Gases

CH4 C CFC’s ChloroFluoroCarbons

largely phased out in favor of… HydroFluoroCarbons Freon-12 HFC’s Cl Unfortunately, all are Greenhouse Gases CCl F F 2 2 C • some very potent Cl F • some very long lasting

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 96 Greenhouse Gas Radiative Forcing as of 2011 (IPCC AR5)

Long- lived Gases

Short- lived * Gases

Watts/m2 relative to 1750 IPCC AR5 SPM-5

3/9/21 *Non-Methane VOC’s Climate Change 6 97 like Ethanol, Acetone, Formaldehyde Du Pont Freon-12

EPA 2016

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 98 Montreal Protocol (1987)

• International Agreement to phase out Chlorine- and Bromine-containing hydrocarbons which attack Stratospheric Ozone. • Used as refrigerants, fire suppressants, aerosol propellants. • Universally adopted, big success. • Substituted by Fluorine-containing compounds. • Note: All are GHG’s. EPA 2016

Antarctic Ozone Hole September 2006 3/9/21 Climate Change 6 99 Du Pont Freon-12

All are Greenhouse Gases, typically

10,000 times as potent as CO2 . Mostly Long Lived

EPA 2016

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 100 As CFC’s are phased out, HFC’s are growing

Singh & Bhargawa (2019)

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 101 C2F6 Lifetimes

of GH Exact decay rate of CO2 uncertain, due to complexity of short term Gases: sinks. Note rapid decay of CH4. But most GH gases last for Cold Turkey hundred of years or more. Cutoff CO2

CH4

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 102 Nitrous Oxide N2O

7.7 m

Agriculture 67%

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 103 Greenhouse Gas Radiative Forcing as of 2011 (IPCC AR5)

Long- lived Gases

Short- lived * Gases

Watts/m2 relative to 1750 IPCC AR5 SPM-5

3/9/21 *Non-Methane VOC’s Climate Change 6 104 like Ethanol, Acetone, Formaldehyde N2O

1750 CE value

But now human activity is pushing Again, Antarctic ice core data it up, but not as much percentage- shows N2O hovering around 250 wise as for CO2 or CH4 ppb, up and down with ice ages…

EPA (2016)

IPCC AR4

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 105 N2O

1750 CE value

EPA (2016)

IPCC AR4

NOAA Earth System Res. Lab 3/9/21 Climate Change 6 106 Questions about Other ? Greenhouse Gases?

CH 4 CFC’s etc. N2O Cl

F C

Cl F

Climate Change 5 3/2/2021 107 Course Outline

3/9/21 Climate Change 6 108