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Demystifying Climate Change Session 5 Boneyard Creek, Champaign Ca Demystifying Climate Change Session 5 Boneyard Creek, Champaign ca. 20,000 B.C.E. ? Natural Variability of the Climate OLLI at Illinois Spring 2021 D. H. Tracy [email protected] Reminder • OLLI Course Download site has – Each slide set (with annotations) posted a day after session – Syllabus – Reference List 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 2 416.67 ppm Feb 28, 2021 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 3 Course Outline 1. Building Blocks: Some important concepts 2. Our Goldilocks Earth: a Radiative Balancing Act 3. The Role of the Atmosphere: Greenhouse Gases & Clouds 4. Global Circulation and Dynamics of the Earth System: Oceans, Atmosphere, Biosphere, Cryosphere, People, Lithosphere 5. Natural Variability of the Climate, short and long term. Ice Ages 6. Carbon Dioxide and other Greenhouse Gases: where do they come from, where do they go, how are they regulated? 7. Impacts and Future Projections for Global Warming -- Uncertainties 8. Adaptation and Amelioration Strategies. The Climate debate. Policy options. 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 4 Theory vs. Empiricism According to my Balderdash! calculations…. Show me the actual data… 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 5 Reconstructing Past Climates • Recent Past: Instrumental Records • More Distant Past: Inference from Proxies – Paleoclimatology 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 6 Oldest Continuous Instrumental Temperature Record 30 stations currently • Anomalies relative to a baseline period: • 1961-1990 10 Year Moving Average • Small Region 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 7 4 Global Instrumental Surface Temperature Records 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 8 Historic Temperature Anomalies 0.3 LVTM* 0.2 0.1 0 -0.1 Temperature Anomaly (C)Anomaly Temperature -0.2 * Late Victorian Thermal Maximum -0.3 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 J. Unrepro. Rslts (2019) 9 Historic Temperature Anomalies 0.3 LVTM* ? 0.2 0.1 0 -0.1 Temperature Anomaly (C)Anomaly Temperature Normally distributed -0.2 random numbers * Late Victorian Thermal Maximum -0.3 1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 J. Unrepro. Rslts (2019) 10 Modes of Weather Observation WMO.int 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 11 World Meteorological Organization Weather Station Networks • 3000 in Regional Basic Climatological Networks • 4000 in Regional Basic Synoptic Networks • also Antarctic Observing Network • 4000 additional stations not shown 3/2/2021 WMO.int Climate Change 5 12 Global Ocean Observing System administered by Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission • 1400 Surface Drift Buoys • 700+ Moored Buoys • 4000 Profiling Floats • 400+ Voluntary Observing Ships • Many other platforms 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 13 When Did Weather Stations Come Online? Global Historical Climatology Network Stations Kevan Hashemi (2009) 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 14 NOAA Weather Stations in CU • mostly rain gauges only • 3 provide Temperature, Wind etc. Bondville Environmental and Atmospheric Research Site (BEARS) “Urbana 4.2 ESE” Champaign 3 S GHCND:USC00118740 Bondville Willard BEARS site Illinois State Water Survey CMI 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 15 Historical Observing Metadata Repository (HOMR) NOAA.gov | NationalHistorical Centers Observing for Metadata Repository Environmental Information (noaa.gov) 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 16 Global Temperature Anomaly (relative to 1850-1900) 1 0 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 BerkeleyEarth.org 17 IPCC Breakdown of Components of Recent Global Forcings IPCC AR5 WG1 Fig. FAQ 5.1-1 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 18 Global Temperature Anomaly (relative toThe 1850 “Hiatus”-1900) 1 0 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 BerkeleyEarth.org 19 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 20 2 1 0 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 21 Global Temperature Anomalies vs. 1951-1980 Baseline Baseline: NASA Scientific 1951-19803/2/2021 Climate Change 5 22 Visualization Studio Baseline: NASA Scientific 1951-19803/2/2021 Climate Change 5 23 Visualization Studio Questions about the Recent Instrumental Global ? Temperature Record Climate Change 5 3/2/2021 24 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 25 National Climatic Data Center (NOAA) 60 ton trunk of Kauri tree found in a bog in New Zealand. 42,000 years old, lived 1700 years 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 Science Feb 19, 2021 26 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 27 National Climatic Data Center (NOAA) Fall 2003: High Sunspot Activity During active sunspot years, overall Irradiance is HIGHER, but it DROPS briefly when a sunspot drifts across SORCE Solar Radiation & Climate Experiment Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics G Kopp, LASP U Colorado (Boulder) 2019 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 28 Fall 2003: High Sunspot Activity During active sunspot years, overall Irradiance is HIGHER, but it DROPS briefly when a sunspot drifts across SORCE Solar Radiation & Climate Experiment Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics G Kopp, LASP U Colorado (Boulder) 2019 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 29 Meet the Maunders 1890’s Dallmeyer Photo-Heliograph at Royal Observatory Annie and Walter Maunder in India Greenwich 1898 for Solar Eclipse expedition 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 30 Sunspot Number Prediction 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 31 Satellite Solar Irradiance Measurements 1979-2019 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 32 Corrected solar irradiance data, together with observed sunspot counts Satellite Solar Solar Radiative Forcing Varies Irradiance with 11 year Sunspot Cycle Maunder Measurements Minimum To right: Best estimates of historical Solar Irradiance based on recorded sunspot activity. Total variation is less than3/2/2021 2 W/m2 out of 1360 W/m2. Climate Change 5 33 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 34 National Climatic Data Center (NOAA) Global Temperature Anomaly Estimated from Proxy Data Large numbers (thousands) of Proxy data series are archived internationally, such as the PAGES2K database. From this data estimates of past global temperatures can be derived, with large uncertainties. 2021 Ed Hawkins (2020) PAGES2K dataset Base 1850-1900 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 35 12,000 Year Global Temperature Reconstructions based on ~800 Proxy Records Kaufman et al, “Holocene Global Mean Temperature, a Multi-Method Reconstruction Approach”, Nature: Scientific Data (2020) At 1200 years before present (BP), we are coming out of the last ice age. Temperature peaks at ~ 6000 years BP. then slowly falls, until industrial era. 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 36 Various Proxy Reconstructions of Global Temperature for Last 2000 Years Instrumental Record Moberg et. al. Nature (2005) 11 Proxy Datasets Early reconstructions were based on regionally biased datasets (European e.g.) which show more variability, Robert Rohde, Wikipedia including the infamous “Medieval Warm Period” and “Little Ice Age” 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 Year 37 12,000 Year Global Temperature Reconstructions based on ~800 Proxy Records Kaufman et al, “Holocene Global Mean Temperature, a Multi-Method Reconstruction Approach”, Nature: Scientific Data (2020) 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 38 Ice Core Summer Melt Examples of Proxy (Ellesmere Island) Data Used in Climate Diatom Composition Reconstruction Ice Borehole Temps (Greenland) (Lake Tsuolbmajavri) Pollen from Sediments 18 Tree Ring Data O Cave Stalagmite Cave Stalagmite Layer Thickness Mg/Ca Fossil Shells 18O Foraminifera 9 Proxy Composite Marine Sediment 18O Foraminifera Foraminifera Abundance A lot of these data series are horribly noisy and uncorrelated. It’s a wonder that anything useful can be recovered, and we should be a bit skeptical. 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 39 Attempts to Model Recent Northern Hemisphere Climate “Medieval Climate Anomaly” “Little Ice Age” Northern Hemisphere temperatures estimated from Proxies (gray) are compared with several General Circulation Climate models, using inputs Year such as known CO2 concentrations and volcanic eruptions. Decent agreement is IPCC AR5 WG1 3/2/2021 obtained. Climate Change 5 Fig 5.08a 40 CO2 in Atmosphere over the Last Millenium Antarctic Ice Cores Data from Mauna Loa Until recently, for the last 1000 years, 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 CO2 hovered around 280 ppm. 41 Questions about Sunspots and ? the Last Millenium? Solar Irradiance Estimate Climate Change 5 3/2/2021 42 Preview: Proxy Estimates of Earth Surface Temperature C F Glen Furgus “All Palaeotemps.svg” Wikipedia “Paleoclimatology”. Composite from various source data. 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 43 The Most Important Temperature Proxy 18O “Delta Oh Eighteen” 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 44 Isotopologues of Water Oxygen Isotopes Hydrogen Isotopes Boiling Points: 16O 16 99.75% 1H 1 99.985% 16 100.0 C Regular 17O 17 0.04% 2H 2 0.015% Water (Deuterium) 16 18 O 18 0.20% 16 100.15 C 9 Water Isotopologues Heavier 18 1 in 500 18O Water 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 45 Isotopologues of Water Since Boiling Points are different, regular Oxygen Isotopeswater and 18OHydrogen water can be separatedIsotopes by multiple distillation…. Boiling Points: 16O 16 99.75% 1H 1 99.985% 16 100.0 C 17O 17 0.04% 2H 2 0.015% (Deuterium) 16 18 O 18 0.20% 16 100.15 C 9 Water Isotopologues 18 1 in 500 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 46 You can buy it… Sigma-Aldrich: $272,000 per liter 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 47 Fractionation by Distillation 18 More H2 O 16 16 More H2 O Less H2 O 18 Less H2 O 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 49 Fractionation by Distillation 18 More H2 O 16 16 More H2 O Less H2 O 18 Less H2 O 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 50 Fractionation by Distillation 18 More H2 O 16 16 More H2 O As we go toward poles, multiple Less H2 O distillations result in lower 18O in 18 Less H2 O precipitation and in surface water. 3/2/2021 Climate Change 5 51 Global Map of 18O in Surface Seawater
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