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Invesco Global Sovereign Asset Management Study 2016

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Invesco Global Sovereign Asset Management Study 2016 Invesco Global Sovereign Asset Management Study 2016 This study is not intended for members of the public or retail investors. Full audience information is available inside the front cover. 2 Important info Welcome Summary of key themes This document is intended only for Over the past couple of years sovereigns Qualified Investors in Switzerland have been operating in an environment 1 and for Professional Clients and Financial of increased volatility, whether it be in A positive outlook in a challenging Advisers in other Continental European financial markets, commodity prices or environment countries, Dubai, Jersey, Guernsey, currencies. Low interest rates have added A sustained low oil price and falling Isle of Man, Ireland and the UK, for further complexity, however sovereign government bond yields have affected Institutional Investors in the United States investors remain broadly confident in returns but sovereigns remain confident and Australia, for Institutional Investors their position as long-term investors. and continue to take a long-term view. and/or Accredited Investors in Singapore, Our 2016 Sovereign Asset Management for Professional Investors only in Hong Study seeks to build on the findings from 2 Kong, for Qualified Institutional Investors, previous years’ studies by analysing long- Growth in sovereign real estate pension funds and distributing companies term trends as well as uncovering new investments in Japan; for Persons who are not insights from face-to-face interviews with Fewer execution challenges have made members of the public (as defined in chief investment officers or strategy unit real estate a more attractive asset class the Securities Act) in New Zealand, executives at 77 leading global sovereign to sovereign investors than infrastructure for Accredited Investors as defined under wealth funds, government pensions funds and private equity. National Instrument 45-106 in Canada, and central banks, covering more than for certain specific Qualified Institutions/ US$ 7 trillion of assets (as at March 2016). 3 Sophisticated Investors only in Taiwan The first theme in this year’s report Sovereign capital flow from BRIC and for one-on-one use with Institutional looks at how the challenging investment to frontier markets and the US Investors in Bermuda, Chile, Panama environment has impacted both current Weak economic performance of major and Peru. and future expected returns. Despite the emerging markets has driven allocations clear challenges sovereign confidence has to higher growth frontier markets and to remained stable with many sovereigns the US based on positive economics and continuing to receive new funding. And public policy changes. with time horizons increasing we see sovereigns as sophisticated, strategic, 4 long-term investors. Growing interest from sovereigns in In previous years we’ve noted strong factor-based investing allocations to alternatives. Today’s low Sovereigns understand macro factors return environment has seen this trend but would like more information on style continue however we note a change in factors and their potential applications the preferred asset class with real estate within their portfolios. becoming the primary driver of increasing alternative allocations. We explore the 5 drivers for these changes and highlight Central banks to become important how sovereigns are accessing real estate. sovereign investors We highlight how weak economic The presence of investment tranches performance of major emerging markets with significant corporate bond and has driven allocations to higher growth equity allocations suggests that frontier markets in our third theme. central banks are becoming long-term Despite this the US is now the most the sovereign investors. attractive market to sovereigns. We explore the role of public policy in influencing sovereign investment and highlight the opportunity for governments globally. We look in detail at sovereigns’ growing interest in factor-based investing. With levels of perceptions, awareness and adoption varying, we explore how asset managers can help sovereigns overcome perceived barriers to entry. We conclude the report by focusing on central banks. This year we’ve increased our central bank sample and classified them as a separate segment of sovereign investor. We explore the relative importance of different investment objectives and focus on the development of investment tranches. We hope the unique, evidence-based findings in this year’s report provide a valuable insight into a fascinating and important group of investors. Alexander Millar Head of EMEA Sovereigns & Middle East and Africa Institutional Sales [email protected] +44 1491 416180 igsams.invesco.com Visit the study webpage to Cover photography view more content on this Tokyo cityscape Marunouchi year’s themes. 1 A positive outlook in a challenging environment A sustained low oil price and falling government bond yields have affected returns but sovereigns remain confident and continue to take a long-term view. 12 3 The low return environment means Investment and liquidity sovereigns face Many investment some sovereigns have missed their the largest return gaps target returns The size of the return gap, defined as sovereigns are now We completed our fourth annual cycle the difference between target and actual comfortable operating of executive interviews with leading returns, varied for different sovereign sovereign investors covering more investor segments. These differences in an environment with than US$ 7 trillion of assets in March are displayed in figure 2 showing the limited new funding. 2016. Over the course of the last four current 1-year return gap for 2015 years sovereign investors have faced and the expected return gap in 2016. an increasingly challenging investment Investment and liquidity sovereigns have environment driven by a sustained fall the largest return gaps (3.9% and 2.3% in the oil price and an unprecedented respectively) compared to liability and low return environment. Low returns development sovereigns (1.0% and 1.7%) continued in 2015 as developed market who noted reporting benefits. Most liability central banks continued extensive sovereigns were based outside of the US quantitative easing programmes. Between and reported in local currency. the end of Q1 2014 and Q1 2016 the These portfolios typically had oil price fell by more than US$ 60 per significant exposure to US fixed income barrel1 and yields on 10-year German and (notably Treasury bonds) and so these Japanese government bonds fell from investments and the broader portfolio 1.5%2 and 0.6%3 to 0.1% and -0.1% benefited from the strengthening of respectively. Furthermore, at the time the US$ against their local currency. of our field work, sovereigns remained Indeed 28% of sovereigns had left their cautious on the medium term outlook for portfolio overweight US$ (figure 3) oil given uncertainty with respect to OPEC in order to benefit from the currency discussions and on the outlook for the appreciation relative to their reporting risk free rate based on recent guidance Fig 1. Average current, target and expected currency. In contrast fewer investment Fig 3. Overweight currency positions from central banks. future annual returns for sovereign investors and liquidity sovereigns benefited from (percentage of sovereign investor citations for each category), Q1 2016 This challenging macro environment currency movements because more of has impacted sovereign investment 5-year 3-year 2015 2016 these sovereigns report in US$ or hedge Actual Actual Actual 1-year target 1-year expected 1-year target Local US$ EUR JPY/CNY GBP performance. Across the sovereign 45 45 49 52 43 54 their currency exposures. Development investors we interviewed, average actual sovereigns benefited from significant annual portfolio returns fell from 6.6% on 6.6 private equity holdings which were 6.4 a 5-year view to 4.1% on a 1-year view not marked to market and so had not current 5.9 to December 2015. Actual 2015 annual 1-year return Expected 5.7 fallen to the same extent as public returns of 4.1% represent a return gap gap future 1-year equity investments. gap return of 1.8% from average sovereign investor targets of 5.9% and because target 4.4 However sovereign investor assets returns are rarely reviewed, sovereigns 4.1 continue to grow on a net flow basis expect to miss their target returns again Despite high profile withdrawals from next year. Figure 1 sets out the decline in major investment sovereigns, our study average portfolio returns and the size of reports that on average more money current and expected future return gaps. is entering a typical sovereign investor portfolio. Across all our interviews the 28 average new funding is 7% of assets 20 while only 3% of assets are withdrawn 11 11 or cancelled. Oil and commodity 8 dependent investment sovereigns face the most challenges but these are offset Sample is based on sovereign investors and excludes central banks. Sample size shown in grey. by continued new funding, as well as Data is not weighted by AUM. growth in new funding from liability and Sample is based on sovereign investors and excludes central banks. development sovereigns as shown in Fig 2. Average actual, current and future target 2015 • Actual returns figure 4. Defined benefit state pension Fig 4. Sovereigns views on funding and • New funding 1-year returns by sovereign investor profile • Target returns funds in emerging markets are cancellations as a % of AUM, full year 2015 • Cancelled investments 2016 Forecast returns the most significant contributors to • Sovereign sample 56 INV 10 LIA 26 LIQ 6 DEV 14 • 1-year return/future gap • Target returns growth although current portfolio sizes remain relatively small. We also note 9 Investment sovereigns Liability sovereigns Liquidity sovereigns Development sovereigns that a couple of development sovereigns 9 10 8 12 24 23 19 23 5 6 5 6 11 13 11 13 received large one-off government 7 7 contributions during 2015. Many investment sovereigns are now 5 comfortable operating in an environment with limited new funding.
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