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Australia's Exposure to Regional Economic Disruption: Investment

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Australia's Exposure to Regional Economic Disruption: Investment Australia’s exposure to regional economic disruption: Investment Dr Jeffrey Wilson VOL 5 INDO-PACIFIC ANALYSIS BRIEFS 2020 INDO-PACIFIC ANALYSIS BRIEFS 2020 The Perth USAsia Centre’s Indo- Pacific Analysis Briefs seek to provide perceptive and contemporary insights from across the region. The series features leading analysts from Asia, Australia and the US to deliver up-to- the-minute assessments on issues of national and regional importance. This series will shine a light on the issues that remain critically important to Australia and the Indo-Pacific at a time when global events may otherwise dominate the news cycle. AUTHOR Dr Jeffrey Wilson Research Director Dr Jeffrey Wilson is the Research Director at the Perth USAsia Centre. He provides leadership and strategic direction in developing the Centre’s research program across its publications, policy and dialogue activities. Dr Wilson specialises in the regional economic integration of the Indo-Pacific. He has particular expertise in the politics of trade agreements, regional economic institutions, and Australia’s economic ties with Asia. He has been featured in local and international media outlets, contributed to a range of track two dialogues between Australia and key regional partners, and supported policy development through consultancy, publication and advisory work. A political scientist by training, Dr Wilson’s research has been recognised as a recipient of the University of Sydney Medal (2006) and the Vice-Chancellor’s Excellence in Research Award (Murdoch, 2015). He was the inaugural winner of the Australian Institute of International Affairs’ Boyer Prize (2012) for his work on the politics of China-Australia mining investment. He holds a Bachelor of Economic and Social Sciences (Honours) from the University of Sydney, and a PhD in International Relations from the Australian National University. KEY POINTS → The COVID-related recession will significantly dampen international capital flows in 2020 3 → Australia is a net capital importer which depends on foreign investment for its economic performance integration on China and Indo-Pacific dependence economic India’s → Australia’s investment exposure to the US and Europe – the economies most adversely affected by COVID-19 – will amplify this challenge → The resource, manufacturing and real estate sectors will be among those most affected → Recent changes to FIRB processes will place additional regulatory burdens on firms seeking foreign investment Introduction As COVID-19 batters countries around the world, Australia now faces its worst economic shock in over a generation. Most of the economic policy debate in Australia has focused on the domestic side: how can government best stimulate the economy as public health measures close many parts of it down? But the international side of the economic crisis is equally important. Australia is a highly open economy, with deep links to global markets. Indeed, our strongest ties are with partners in the Indo-Pacific, a region home to the countries first and worst affected by COVID-19. Foreign investment is a critical – but often unappreciated – mechanism connecting Australia to the global economy. In 2018, there was $3.5 trillion of accumulated foreign investment in Australia, while Australian companies held $2.5 trillion of assets abroad. Together, these two-way investment stocks are equivalent to 3.2 percent of GDP. While smaller in value than trade, foreign investment offers a combined package of capital, technology and marketing channels that are essential for Australian businesses participating in world markets. Foreign investment also makes a material contribution to the Australian macroeconomy. In the decade to 2018, Australia had net capital inflows of $548 billion, equivalent to 16 percent of all private investment. But as COVID-19 forces country after country into recession, international capital markets will be badly affected. Stock markets have posted record collapses1, banking systems are under intense strain2, and business confidence is at anall-time low3. As the economic crisis crimps international capital flows, how will the Australian economy be affected? Australia’s investment partners are badly affected by COVID-19 There is a prominent geographic bias to Australia’s international investment relationships. Of foreign investment stocks (both inwards and outwards), just under two-thirds are with ‘traditional’ partners: the US and EU. Regional partners in the Indo-Pacific (Japan, China and ASEAN), even when combined together, come in at third place with only 15 percent. While Australia is heavily trade-exposed4 to the Indo-Pacific region, its investment ties remains decidedly ‘old world’. Australian two-way investment partners, 2018 This means the economic impact of the 4 COVID-19 recession will affect Australia’s 6% Japan trade and investment relationships in % China/HK India’s economic dependence on China and Indo-Pacific integration on China and Indo-Pacific dependence economic India’s 5 markedly different ways. 4% ASEAN Trade partners in the Indo-Pacific – China, % 32 Japan, Korea and Southeast Asia – were EU amongst the first countries hit by the 26% Others pandemic. However, their economies will also be some of the quickest to recover. % 27 IMF forecasts suggest they will perform US comparatively well by international standards in 2020, with positive growth Source: Author’s calculations, from ABS International Investment rates in China and India. Position, Australia: Supplementary Statistics (Cat. No. 5352.0) By contrast, Australia’s investment partners are taking a later but deeper hit: • At time of writing, the US has the world’s highest COVID-19 case count, with the next five worst-affected the five largest European countries (Spain, Italy, Germany, France and UK). • The IMF forecasts deep recessions of around -6 percent in these economies, significantly worse than the -3 percent global average. • Hong Kong – a critical hub for Asian investments into Australia – is also forecast to contract by -4.8 percent. Growth forecasts in Australia’s economic partners, 2020 2 1 USA eran France U on aan ASA- Korea 0 India -1 China -2 -3 -4 -5 Rea P roth orecast 2020 () orecast P roth Rea -6 -7 -8 April 2020. Outlook Economic World IMF, Source: Investment Partners Trade Partners World This will make it significantly harder for Australian companies to attract investment from traditional partners. As stock markets collapse and financial institutions come under strain, the supply of capital from these economies has become extremely tight. Australia will suffer a dramatic fall in foreign investment inflows, and may need to look to new investment partners in less-affected economies. Concentrated sectoral impacts: Resources, manufacturing and real estate Foreign investment in Australia is also concentrated in a narrow set of industries. In 2018, the top five recipients were: 5 MINING AND FINANCE AND WHOLESALE AND MANUFACTURING: REAL ESTATE: QUARRYING: INSURANCE: RETAIL TRADE: India’s economic dependence on China and Indo-Pacific integration on China and Indo-Pacific dependence economic India’s $366 billion of accumulated $108 billion $108 billion $102 billion $57 billion investment stocks Together, these five sectors account for 77 percent of the foreign investment in Australia. They will all be impacted by a downturn in the supply of foreign capital. Despite accounting for half of Australia’ inward foreign investment, the effects on the resources sector will be moderate. As mine sites have been classified as an essential service, the industry has been less affected by public health measures than others. Its trade exposure to the better- performing Chinese economy5 means it will be better placed to attract investment than others. By contrast, the effects on the real estate industry will be more pronounced. As Australian foreign investment policy deliberately channels real estate investment into new dwelling construction6, most capital inflows support construction projects. With housing construction already under a cloud due7 to depressed domestic conditions, a reduction in foreign investment will be a further drag on a sector that employs over a million people8. The manufacturing sector faces mixed fortunes. On one hand, interruptions to global value chains9 has increased interest in developing Australian manufacturing capabilities, particularly for medical technologies and other high-value critical equipment10. But on the other, the technological and financial resources required to develop these manufacturing capabilities are usually supplied through foreign investment packages. As US and European manufacturing corporations face severe economic downturns at home, their ability to invest in projects in Australia will be significantly constrained. A balancing act for the FIRB? Sustaining Australia’s international investment relationships will become even more challenging due to recent changes to Australia’s foreign investment framework. Australia is very open to foreign investment, with applications reviewed on a case-by-case basis by the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB). The FIRB approves the overwhelming majority of applications automatically, and only conducts reviews on major investments: such as in sensitive sectors such as real estate11, from state-owned enterprises12, or those over specified value thresholds13. However, on 29 March the Treasurer announced temporary changes14 to this system, which now require all foreign investments – irrespective of their
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