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Morning Briefing Global Economic Trading Calendar

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Morning Briefing Global Economic Trading Calendar A Eurex publication focused on European financial markets, produced by MNl Morning Briefing August 11th 2016 Although picking up a little from Across the Atlantic, the Canadian The four-week moving average rose Wednesday's levels, data releases calendar kicks off at 1230GMT, with 3,750 to 260,250 in the July 30 after remain limited Thursday, with very the publication of the June New four straight declines, and could rise little to trouble the scorers on the Housing Price Index. by 2,750 in the current week as the European schedule. 254,000 level in The main US release is also The calendar gets underway at expected at 1230GMT, with the the July 9 week will roll off the four- 0645GMT, with the publication of the publication of the latest jobless week average calculation, assuming French final July inflation data at, claims data and the June the MNI forecast is correct and there with the Italian data July inflation import/export price index. are no revisions. data expected at 0800GMT. The level of initial jobless claims is The DOE natural gas stocks data will At 0900GMT Bundesbank Board expected to fall by 4,000 to 265,000 be released at 1430GMT, followed member Carl-Ludwig Thiele speaks in the August 6 week after rising by by the Kansas City Fed LMCI at at the opening ceremony of the 3,000 in the previous week. 1500GMT. building extension of the Oldenburg office, in Oldenburg, Germany. Late US data sees the publication of the Fed's Weekly Money Supply Data at2030GMT. Global Economic Trading Calendar Markets FOREX: The only action of note US INDEX FUTURES: US stock US TSY FUTURES: With cash happened very early in the session, index futures are trading little treasuries closed until the London as expected the Reserve Bank of changed, with the market quiet as open, 10yr treasury futures are New Zealand cut rates by 25bp, but Japanese markets are closed for the unchanged from the close at 132-13, their subsequent statement was Mountain Day holiday. Currently the with the market seeing a 132-25/22 deemed somewhat less dovish than Jun'16 e-mini S&P futures are range on volumes of 7.8k. expected. Kiwi-dollar took off like trading flat at 2,172.75, the Jun'16 e- Usain Bolt, rising from $0.7203 to mini Nasdaq futures are trading JAPAN: Markets are closed today in $0.7341 as an overly short down 1.00 point at 4,780.50, while Japan for the Mountain Day Holiday. positioned market ran for cover. Dips the Jun'16 e-mini Dow futures are were then limited to $0.7266 and trading up 6 points at 18,458. GOLD: Spot gold last down 2.45 at another rally was then capped by RM $1,344.0 per ounce, in a $1,348.10 supply just above $0.7300. Kiwi- US STOCKS CLOSE: US stocks to $1,341.75 range so far this dollar was last at $0.7276. Aussie- have seen modest profit-taking morning in Asia, with the market dollar spiked from $0.7703 to Weds, not a surprise after the recent trading quietly as Tokyo investors $0.7750 in sympathy with the surging run-up to life-time highs. The DJIA are out on holiday today. US Dollar kiwi, once the dust had settled, the closed down 0.20% at 18,495.66, the strength overnight is capping gains Aussie then carved out a $0.7696- Nasdaq Composite closed down for now. $0.7726 range and was last at 0.40% at 5,204.585 and the S&P 500 $0.7704. The absence of Japanese closed down 0.29% at 2,175.49. OIL: WTI crude oil futures for Sep'16 participants due to the Mountain Day Tuesday, the S&P 500 posted a new delivery last down $0.25 at $41,46 holiday saw dollar-yen held in a tight life-time high of 2,187.66 and the per barrel, after a $41.78 to $41.28 Y101.03-Y101.31 range, with little DJIA topped out at 18,585.32, but fell range in Asia today. Wednesday saw impetus to trade. Dollar-yen was last short of revisiting the life-time high of Sep'16 WTI settle down $1.06 at at Y101.25. Euro-dollar largely 18,622.01, posted July 20. Tuesday $41.71/bl, after trading in a $41.42 tracked the range seen in US also, the Nasdaq posted a high of (after hours) to $43.39 range. The markets, but did manage to print a 5,238.538, which was a new life-time high was seen in the wake of the marginally new high of $1.1192 from high and took out the prior life high of release of EIA data, showing a 1.06 a $1.1173 base and was last at 5,231.942, seen July 20, 2015. From mb build. While the market expected $1.1177. the June 27 post Brexit low of roughly a 1 mnb draw, the result was 4,574.254 to Tuesday's high, the still better than the API data's Nasdaq has rallied 14.5%. On the 2.1mnb build from the night before, year however, at Wed's closing so WTI spiked higher. However, WTI levels, the index was up just 3.9%. could not take out Tuesday's high at $43.52 and prices quickly turned south. WTI remains underpinned in anticipation about the upcoming OPEC/non-OPEC member meeting, on the sidelines of the 15th International Energy Forum taking place in Algeria Sept 26-28. Technical Analysis BUND TECHS: (U16) Rally Tests Base Of 168.00-168.13 Resistance *RES 4: 168.75 Equality rise target from 166.38 *RES 3: 168.26 1.618 swing of 167.69-166.76 *RES 2: 168.13 Jul 6 high *RES 1: 168.00 Jul 29, Aug 10 highs *PREVIOUS CLOSE: 167.92 *SUP 1: 167.55/60 Hourly support *SUP 2: 167.24 Aug 8 high, now support *SUP 3: 167.07/08 Hourly basing area Aug 8-9 *SUP 4: 166.76 Aug 8 low *COMMENTARY* Eased above 167.69 resistance on Wednesday, culminating in a rally to the base of the next 168.00-168.13 resistance area. Currently pulling back from there but while above 167.55/60 there is still scope to see a further rise aimed at 168.13-168.26 next. Loss of 167.55 will disappoint now, allowing a deeper 167.24-167.07 setback, as recent gains from 166.76 come under correction. A move above 168.26 and have to allow for an eventual 168.75-169.00 rise. EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: 3030.0 Break Still Needed To Continue Recovery *RES 4: 3094.0 Apr 21 high *RES 3: 3089.0 May 31 high *RES 2: 3058.0 Jun 23 high *RES 1: 3030.0 Aug 1 high *PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3016.0 *SUP 1: 2999.0 Aug 8 high, now support *SUP 2: 2976.0 Aug 9 low *SUP 3: 2958.0 Hourly high Aug 5, now support *SUP 4: 2945.0 Aug 4 high, now support *COMMENTARY* The move back above 2960.0 on Monday swung the near term bias back to higher and this has been followed on Tuesday by a further break of the pivotal 3005.0 level. This once again leaves the 3030.0 region, as the next main barrier to surmount, if the recovery is to continue, at this stage. In the meantime, 2999.0-2975.0 acts as support, the latter now key to retaining momentum. Above 3030.0 and 3058.0-3094.0 to act again as resistance. Eurex Futures Market Close , Eurex Exchange. An exchange for the Essential Macroeconomic and Market better. Intelligence As one of the world’s leading derivatives exchanges we offer MNI is the leading provider of news and intelligence a broad range of international benchmark products. specifically for the Global Foreign Exchange and Fixed Income Markets, providing timely, relevant, and critical We operate the most liquid EUR fixed income derivatives insight for market professionals and those who want to make markets, provide the broadest range of equity index informed investment decisions. We offer not simply news, derivatives worldwide and are the platform of choice for but news analysis, linking breaking news to the effects on European equity derivatives. In addition we cover derivatives capital markets. Our exclusive information and intelligence on dividends, volatility and ETFs. All on one single platform. moves markets. 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