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APPENDIX E History and Projection of Traffic, Toll Revenues And APPENDIX E History and Projection of Traffic, Toll Revenues and Expenses and Review of Physical Conditions of the Facilities of Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority Prepared for: Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority Prepared by: Stantec Consulting Services, Inc. April 28, 2017 HISTORY AND PROJECTION OF TRAFFIC, TOLL REVENUES AND EXPENSES AND REVIEW OF PHYSICAL CONDITIONS OF THE FACILITIES OF TRIBOROUGH BRIDGE AND TUNNEL AUTHORITY TABLE OF CONTENTS Page TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE ............................................................................................................... 1 TBTA Facilities ........................................................................................................................................ 1 Metropolitan Area Arterial Network ................................................................................................. 4 Other Regional Toll Facilities .............................................................................................................. 4 Regional Public Transportation ......................................................................................................... 5 Potential Regional Tolling Proposals ................................................................................................. 5 TOLL COLLECTION ON THE TBTA FACILITIES ................................................................................................... 6 Present and Proposed Toll Structures and Operation .................................................................. 6 E-ZPass Electronic Toll Collection System ...................................................................................... 12 TBTA’s Role in E-ZPass......................................................................................................................... 14 HISTORICAL TRAFFIC, REVENUES AND EXPENSES AND ESTIMATED/BUDGETED NUMBERS FOR 2016 ...................................................................................................................................................... 19 Traffic and Toll Revenue, 2006 to 2016 .......................................................................................... 22 Traffic by Facility and Vehicle Class, 2016 .................................................................................... 25 Monthly Traffic, 2016 ......................................................................................................................... 26 Changes in Monthly Traffic, 2015 to 2016 ..................................................................................... 28 Operating Expenses, 2006 to 2016 ................................................................................................. 28 FACTORS AFFECTING TRAFFIC GROWTH ..................................................................................................... 31 Employment, Population, and Motor Vehicle Registrations ..................................................... 31 Fuel Conditions ................................................................................................................................... 41 Toll Increase Impacts, Collection Methods, and Elasticity ........................................................ 44 Availability of Capacity on TBTA Facilities .................................................................................... 47 TBTA and Regional Operational and Construction Impacts..................................................... 47 Summary of Assumptions and Conditions .................................................................................... 63 PROJECTED TRAFFIC, REVENUES, AND EXPENSES ....................................................................................... 66 Estimated Traffic and Toll Revenue, 2017 ..................................................................................... 66 Traffic and Toll Revenue at Current Tolls ....................................................................................... 68 Traffic and Toll Revenue with Assumed 2019 Toll Increase ........................................................ 69 Effects of Second Avenue Subway Construction in Forecast Years ....................................... 72 Effects of Open Road Tolling (ORT) in Forecast Years ................................................................ 72 Operating Expenses .......................................................................................................................... 72 Net Revenues from Toll Operations ................................................................................................ 74 REVIEW OF PHYSICAL CONDITIONS .............................................................................................................. 74 Post-Superstorm Sandy Reports, Capital Investments and Rehabilitation ............................. 76 Inspection Reports, Flagged Conditions and Rehabilitation Projects ..................................... 76 Other Systemwide Improvements .................................................................................................. 83 Long-Term Outlook for TBTA Facilities ............................................................................................. 85 i HISTORY AND PROJECTION OF TRAFFIC, TOLL REVENUES AND EXPENSES AND REVIEW OF PHYSICAL CONDITIONS OF THE FACILITIES OF TRIBOROUGH BRIDGE AND TUNNEL AUTHORITY CONCLUDING REMARKS ................................................................................................................................ 85 LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1 Current Toll Rates at TBTA Facilities, Effective Since March 19, 2017 ........................................ 7 Table 2 E-ZPass Participation Rates .............................................................................................................. 13 Table 3 ORT Activation Schedule ................................................................................................................. 16 Table 4 Historical Trends in Cash/TBM and E-ZPass Passenger Car Toll Rates ...................................... 18 Table 5 E-ZPass Passenger Toll Rates versus Consumer Price Index ....................................................... 19 Table 6 Annual Toll-Paying Traffic and Toll Revenue, 2006 to 2016 ....................................................... 23 Table 7 Summary of Annual Paid Traffic and Toll Revenue, 2006 to 2016............................................ 24 Table 8 Actual Changes in January – February Traffic, 2016 to 2017 ................................................... 25 Table 9 Traffic by Facility and Vehicle Class, 2016 .................................................................................... 26 Table 10 Monthly Traffic Variations, 2016 .................................................................................................... 27 Table 11 Changes in Monthly Average Daily Traffic, 2015 to 2016 ....................................................... 28 Table 12 Historical Operating Expenses, 2006 to 2016 ............................................................................. 29 Table 13 Employment Trends ........................................................................................................................ 33 Table 14 Employment Projections ................................................................................................................ 34 Table 15 Labor Force Conditions, 2010 & 2016 .......................................................................................... 35 Table 16 Housing Building Permits Issued within the City, 2014 - 2016 ................................................... 37 Table 17 Population Trends............................................................................................................................ 38 Table 18 Population Projections ................................................................................................................... 39 Table 19 Motor Vehicle Registrations .......................................................................................................... 40 Table 20 New York City Motor Vehicle Registrations, 2011 to 2016 ....................................................... 41 Table 21 Elasticity Factors .............................................................................................................................. 46 Table 22 Estimated Percent Change in Average Toll Rates and Traffic in 2019 ................................. 46 Table 23 Estimated Changes in Annual Traffic, 2016 to 2017 ................................................................. 67 Table 24 Estimated 2017 Toll-Paying Traffic and Toll Revenue ............................................................... 68 Table 25 Traffic and Toll Revenue Forecast, Constant Tolls ..................................................................... 70 Table 26 Traffic and Toll Revenue Forecast with Assumed 2019 Toll Increase .................................... 71 Table 27 Projected Operating Expenses .................................................................................................... 73 Table 28 Net Toll Revenue Forecast............................................................................................................. 74 Table 29 Opening Dates of TBTA Facilities .................................................................................................. 75 Table 30 Capital Investments by Facility, 1992 through 2016 ................................................................
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