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Fostering Inclusive Growth & Promoting Intergenerational Equity

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UNITED NATIONS NATIONS UNIES ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC United Nations Building, Ratchadamnoen Nok Avenue, Bangkok 10200, Thailand Fostering Inclusive Growth & Promoting Intergenerational Equity in an Ageing Asia-Pacific _________________________________ Manuel Mejido Costoya Unpublished report prepared for the Social Development Division of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), Bangkok, Thailand January 2016 Mejido Costoya January 2016 Contents Chapter 1 The Greying of Asia-Pacific 1 Population ageing is rapidly transforming the 2 region Population ageing will pose important 9 challenges to inclusive growth and social equity Demography is not destiny 16 Between breadth and depth 17 Structure of the report 19 Chapter 2 Economic repercussions 20 Countries in the region face different 21 demographic and economic scenarios The intergenerational economy provides crucial 25 insight into the lifecycle needs of older persons How countries reallocate resources to meet the lifecycle needs of older persons varies along the 31 demographic transition The two demographic dividends provide opportunities to achieve sustained growth and 42 greater intergenerational equity Stocktaking 48 Chapter 3 Implications for social protection 49 Social protection is essential for inclusive 50 growth and intergenerational equity Social investments must better target the 55 lifecycle needs of older persons 2 Mejido Costoya January 2016 Disparities between breadth and depth of coverage will continue to stymie pension 62 systems Population coupled with the change in disease 68 patterns will thwart health-care systems Population ageing will strain public investments 74 in the social sector Stocktaking 77 Chapter 4 Broader social ramifications 78 Enabling environments are essential for mitigating vulnerabilities associated with social 79 change Social markers of difference accentuate the 82 vulnerabilities associated with old age Familial systems of support are being 89 renegotiated as living arrangements are transformed Ageism is making inroads into the public, 93 economic and political spheres Stocktaking 100 Chapter 5 Managing population ageing 101 Managing population ageing is essential for achieving sustained economic growth and 102 intergenerational equity First pathway: Harnessing the second 103 demographic dividend for inclusive growth Second pathway: Bolstering social protection for 110 greater intergenerational equity Third pathway: Enhancing enabling 130 environments for active ageing Conclusion 130 References 132 3 Mejido Costoya January 2016 Figures Chapter 1 1.1 Population ageing is transpiring in Asia and the 2 Pacific at an unprecedented rate 2 1.2 Countries will experience a considerable 3 increase in the number of older persons 1.3 Plummeting birth rates and a sharp rise in 4 longevity has driven the demographic 1.4 Migration will continue to have a negligible 6 impact on the demographic transition across the region 1.5 Migration will have the greatest demographic 8 impact in the Pacific 1.6 Changes in the working-age cohort point to 10 different demographic windows of opportunity 1.7 Labour force projections becomes less dismal when considering relative changes across the 11 entire population 1.8 The number of working-age individuals potentially supporting older persons will 13 decrease precipitously across the region 1.9 An increasing number of middle-aged 15 individuals will potentially support their parents 1.10 A conceptual strategy is needed at the regional level to make sense of the diversity of ageing 19 trends and their consequences Chapter 2 2.1 Asia-Pacific countries face a panoply of 22 demographic and economic situations 4 Mejido Costoya January 2016 2.2 The lifecycle deficit and surplus is greatest in 26 high-income countries 2.3 In lower-income countries consumption is flat 28 throughout adult life 2.4 Vulnerable employment is pervasive throughout 30 the region 2.5 The relative importance of transfers and assets 33 differ across the region 2.6 Countries depend on different reallocation configurations to fund the lifecycle needs of 35 older persons 2.7 Age structure accentuates asymmetries in 37 lifecycle flows 2.8 In high-income countries government transfers 38 are central to funding the needs of older persons 2.9 In developing countries family support is central 39 to funding the lifecycle deficit in old age 2.10 In developing countries assets are crucial for 41 meeting the lifecycle needs of older persons 2.11 In the next decades the second demographic dividend will become accessible to developing 44 countries Chapter 3 3.1 The large majority of countries in the region have low or moderate investments in social 52 protection 3.2 Pension and health-care flows are much more significant in high-income countries than they 57 are in developing countries 3.3 The majority of countries invest more in 58 education than in health care 3.4 Older persons in rural areas are less likely to be 61 covered by social protection 5 Mejido Costoya January 2016 3.5 There is substantial variation in the depth of 62 pension coverage across the region 3.6 The breadth of pension coverage among 65 developing countries is generally low 3.7 Developing countries have prioritized depth 67 over breadth of pension coverage 3.8 The incidence of chronic diseases increase as countries move along the demographic 69 transition 3.9 In most countries growth in health spending has 70 outpaced growth in income 3.10 Households face an increased risk of financial catastrophe in attempting to meet the health 72 care needs of older persons 3.11 Out-of-pocket spending eclipses public health investments in countries that are early along the 73 demographic transition 3.12 While increasing in recent years, investments in social protection remain low in most developing 75 countries 3.13 While increasing in recent years, investments in social protection remain low in most developing 76 countries Chapter 4 4.1 Ageing well remains a challenge in most 80 countries regardless of age structure 4.2 Women constitute the majority of the oldest old 83 4.3 Workforce participation among older women is 85 disproportionately low in some countries 4.4 Lifelong poverty and exclusion intensifies 86 vulnerabilities in old age 4.5 The prevalence of disability increases with age 87 4.6 In some countries there is a relatively large 88 numbers of older migrants 6 Mejido Costoya January 2016 4.7 Families are becoming smaller and the number 90 of solo-dwelling older persons is on the rise 4.8 There is a growing chasm between the norm of filial obligation and the perceived treatment of 94 older persons by society 4.9 Ageism pervades the labour market, while gerontocratic principles orient managerial 98 systems 4.10 Older persons are more likely to be part of the workforce in countries with young age 99 structures Chapter 5 5.1 There are three principal pathways for managing 102 population ageing 5.2 Population ageing creates favorable conditions 104 for increasing human capital 5.3 The relationship between population ageing and 108 the savings rate is ambivalent 5.4 Migrants comprise a small share of national populations across the region with the exception 123 of the Pacific countries 7 Mejido Costoya January 2016 Tables Chapter 2 2.1 The first demographic dividend has generated 45 significant economic gains 2.2 The end of the first demographic dividend will 46 bring with it economic losses Chapter 4 4.1 Elder abuse is endemic in the region 97 Chapter 5 5.1 Countries need to draw on multiple channels fore mobilizing domestic and international 112 resources 8 Mejido Costoya January 2016 ESCAP Subregions China (CHN), Democratic People’s Republic of East & North-East Asia Korea (PRK), Hong Kong – China (HKG), Japan (E&NE) (JPN), Macao – China (MAC), Mongolia (MNG), Republic of Korea (KOR) Armenia (ARM), Azerbaijan (AZE), Georgia (GEO), North & Central Asia Kazakhstan (KAZ), Kyrgyzstan (KGZ), Russian (N&C) Federation (RUS), Tajikistan (TJK), Turkmenistan (TKM), Uzbekistan (UZB) American Samoa (ASM), Australia (AUS), Cook Islands (COK), Fiji (FJI), French Polynesia (PYF), Guam (GUM), Kiribati (KIR), Marshall Islands The Pacific (MHL), Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), (Pacific) Nauru (NRU), New Caledonia (CNL), New Zealand (NZL), Niue (NIU), Northern Mariana Islands (MNP), Palau (PLW), Papua New Guinea (PNG), Samoa (WSM), Solomon Islands (SLB), Tonga (TON), Tuvalu (TUV), Vanuatu (VUT) Brunei Darussalam (BRN), Cambodia (KHM), South-East Asia Indonesia (IDN), Lao People’s Democratic Republic (SE) (LAO), Malaysia (MYS), Myanmar (MMR), Philippines (PHL), Singapore (SGP), Thailand (THA), Timor-Leste (TLS), Viet Nam (VNM) Afghanistan (AFG), Bangladesh (BGD), Bhutan South & South-West Asia (BTN), India (IND), Islamic Republic of Iran (IRN), (S&SW) Maldives (MDV), Nepal (NPL), Pakistan (PAK), Sri Lanka (LKA), Turkey (TUR) 9 Mejido Costoya January 2016 Chapter 1 The Greying of Asia-Pacific 1 Mejido Costoya January 2016 Population ageing is rapiDly transforming the region Population ageing will be one of the defining trends in Asia and the Pacific in the decades to come. Because it comprehensively reflects changes across the entire age distribution, the most felicitous measure of population ageing is median age, the age at which exactly half the population is older and another half is younger. More intuitive for non-specialists and perhaps also more expedient for teasing out policy implications, the share of older persons is
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