The Mongolian Economy and Financial Markets
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The Mongolian Economy and Financial Markets Chart Pack 2021 - 1st quarter Bank of Mongolia Research and Statistics Department The Mongolian Economy and Financial Markets Contents Graphs 1 World Economy 2 Mongolian Economic Growth 3 Mongolian Inflation 4 Household Sector 5 Business Sector 6 Credit and Money 7 Labor Market 8 Regions and Industries 9 Government 10 Commodity Prices 11 Interest Rates 12 Stock Markets 13 Bonds 14 Exchange Rates 15 Offical Foreign Exchange Reserves 16 Banking Indicators 17 Foreign Trade and Commodity Prices 18 Balance of Payments 19 International Investment Position 20 Foreign Direct Investment 21 Foreign Portfolio Investment 22 External Debt BANK OF MONGOLIA 1.World Economy GDP growth-World (%, YoY) GDP growth-China (%, YoY) 18 World 18 Major trading partners (China, Russia) 15 15 15 15 12 12 9 9 10 10 6 6 5 5 3 3 0 0 0 0 3 3 6 6 5 5 9 9 2004Q1 2008Q2 2012Q3 2016Q4 2021Q1 2004Q1 2008Q2 2012Q3 2016Q4 2021Q1 GDP growth-Advanced economies (%, YoY) GDP growth-Developing economies (%, YoY) USA Advanced economies 5.0 Euro area 5.0 Developing economies Japan 10 Developing Asian economies 10 2.5 2.5 8 8 0.0 0.0 6 6 2.5 2.5 4 4 5.0 5.0 2 2 7.5 7.5 0 0 10.0 10.0 2 2 12.5 12.5 4 4 15.0 15.0 2004Q1 2008Q2 2012Q3 2016Q4 2021Q1 Y2000 Y2005 Y2010 Y2015 Y2021Q1 1.World Economy Inflation-Advanced economies (%, YoY) Inflation-China, Russia (%, YoY) USA Russia 5 Japan 5 China Euro area 15.0 15.0 4 4 12.5 12.5 3 3 10.0 10.0 2 2 7.5 7.5 1 1 5.0 5.0 0 0 2.5 2.5 1 1 0.0 0.0 2 2 2004Q1 2008Q2 2012Q3 2016Q4 2021Q1 2004Q1 2008Q2 2012Q3 2016Q4 2021Q1 Unemployment rate (%) Wage growth (%, YoY) USA USA Euro area Japan Japan 15 15 12 12 10 10 10 10 8 8 5 5 6 6 0 0 4 4 5 5 2 2 2004Q1 2008Q2 2012Q3 2016Q4 2021Q1 2004Q1 2008Q2 2012Q3 2016Q4 2021Q1 1.World Economy - China Fixed asset investment Manufacturing PMI (index) Industrial production (%, share of GDP) (%, share of total capital expenditure) Retail price growth (%, real, annual) 36 36 58 30 32 32 56 24 28 54 28 18 24 52 24 12 20 50 20 6 16 48 16 0 46 12 6 12 44 8 12 8 42 4 18 4 2005Q1 2009Q1 2013Q1 2017Q1 2021Q1 Y2000 Y2005 Y2010 Y2015 Y2021Q1 Y2000 Y2005 Y2010 Y2015 Y2021Q1 2012Q1 2014Q2 2016Q3 2018Q4 2021Q1 Total social financing (%, share of GDP) Finance (%, share of GDP) Production (index) Production (index) Total social financing Budget balance Electricity Cement 18 Unprocessed iron Plate glass 225 260 195 15 240 210 180 12 220 195 165 9 200 180 6 180 150 165 3 160 135 150 0 140 120 3 120 135 105 100 6 120 2004Q1 2008Q2 2012Q3 2016Q4 2021Q1 2004Q1 2008Q2 2012Q3 2016Q4 2021Q1 2008Q1 2011Q2 2014Q3 2017Q4 2021Q1 2008Q1 2011Q2 2014Q3 2017Q4 2021Q1 2. Mongolian economic growth GDP growth (%) Contributions to GDP growth (%) 20 20 50 50 15 15 40 40 10 10 30 30 5 5 20 20 0 0 10 10 5 5 0 0 YoY, cumulative quarter from beginning of the year 10 10 YoY, by quarter 10 10 2004Q1 2008Q2 2012Q3 2016Q4 2021Q1 GDP Consumption Government Investment Export Import expenditure Mining GDP growth (%) Non-mining GDP growth (%) 60 60 YoY, cumulative quarter from beginning of the year YoY, cumulative quarter from beginning of the year YoY, by quarter 25 YoY, by quarter 25 40 40 20 20 15 15 20 20 10 10 5 5 0 0 0 0 20 20 5 5 2004Q1 2008Q2 2012Q3 2016Q4 2021Q1 2004Q1 2008Q2 2012Q3 2016Q4 2021Q1 3. Mongolian Inflation Inflation (%, estimated by CPI) Core inflation (%, YoY) Annually 35 Core inflation 35 Quarterly Inflation 30 30 30 30 25 25 20 20 20 20 15 15 10 10 10 10 0 0 5 5 0 0 2007Q1 2010Q3 2014Q1 2017Q3 2021Q1 2007M1 2010M7 2014M1 2017M7 2021M3 Import inflation (%) Non-import inflation (%) 35 35 Annually Annual 30 Quarterly 30 Quarterly 30 30 25 25 25 25 20 20 20 20 15 15 15 15 10 10 10 10 5 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 5 5 2007Q1 2010Q3 2014Q1 2017Q3 2021Q1 2007Q1 2010Q3 2014Q1 2017Q3 2021Q1 4. Household Sector Household consumption (%, real, YoY) Household debt (ratio, share of GDP) 60 Disposable income 60 Depository corporations outstanding loan/GDP Consumption 25 25 50 50 40 40 20 20 30 30 20 20 15 15 10 10 10 10 0 0 10 10 5 5 Y2000 Y2005 Y2010 Y2015 Y2021Q1 Y2000 Y2005 Y2010 Y2015 Y2021Q1 Housing price index Individual mortgage loan General index Mortgage loan outstanding (left, billion tugriks) 15 15 5,000 100 New house index Total number of borrowers (right, thousands of people) Old house index 10 10 4,000 80 5 5 3,000 60 0 0 2,000 5 5 40 10 10 1,000 20 15 15 0 2015M1 2016M7 2018M1 2019M7 2021M3 2008M1 2011M4 2014M7 2017M10 2021M3 5. Business Sector Business investment (%, share of GDP) Business investment components (%, share of GDP) Capital 72 72 60 Inventories 60 64 64 50 50 56 56 40 40 48 48 30 30 40 40 20 20 32 32 10 10 24 24 0 0 16 16 10 10 8 8 2005Q1 2009Q1 2013Q1 2017Q1 2021Q1 2005Q1 2009Q1 2013Q1 2017Q1 2021Q1 6. Credit and Money Broad money and credit growth (%, YoY) Total credit (%, share of GDP) Broad money, M2 100 Credit 100 55 55 80 80 50 50 60 60 45 45 40 40 20 20 40 40 0 0 35 35 20 20 30 30 40 40 2000M1 2005M4 2010M7 2015M10 2021M3 Y2005 Y2009 Y2013 Y2017 Y2021Q1 Monetary aggregates growth (%, YoY) Credit growth by sector (%, YoY) 100 100 Currency issued in circulation Private sector M1 Individuals M2 80 80 80 80 60 60 60 60 40 40 40 40 20 20 20 20 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 2000M1 2005M4 2010M7 2015M10 2021M3 2005M1 2009M1 2013M1 2017M1 2021M3 6. Credit and Money Credit growth by economic activities (%, YoY) Individual credit growth by sector (%, YoY) Mining Consumption loan 200 200 150 150 Manufacturing Mortgage Construction Trade 125 125 150 150 100 100 100 100 75 75 50 50 50 50 25 25 0 0 0 0 25 25 2004Q1 2008Q2 2012Q3 2016Q4 2021Q1 2009Q1 2012Q1 2015Q1 2018Q1 2021Q1 7. Labor Market Employment (thousands) Average nominal wage growth (%) Population aged 15 and over 70 Annual 70 2,200 Labor force 2,200 Quarterly Employees 60 60 2,000 2,000 50 50 1,800 1,800 40 40 1,600 1,600 30 30 1,400 1,400 20 20 1,200 1,200 10 10 1,000 1,000 0 0 2008Q1 2011Q2 2014Q3 2017Q4 2021Q1 2004Q1 2008Q1 2012Q1 2016Q1 2020Q4 Labor market (%) Employment and Participation rates (%) 13 13 Unemployment rate Labor force participation rate Employment-population ratio 64 64 12 12 62 62 11 11 60 60 10 10 58 58 9 9 56 56 8 8 54 54 52 52 7 7 50 50 6 6 2008Q1 2011Q2 2014Q3 2017Q4 2021Q1 2008Q1 2011Q2 2014Q3 2017Q4 2021Q1 8. Regions and Industries Regional employment (%) Regional employment (%) Western region 70 Central region 70 Khangai region Eastern region Ulaanbaatar 70 70 65 65 65 65 60 60 60 60 55 55 50 50 55 55 45 45 50 50 2010Q1 2012Q4 2015Q3 2018Q2 2021Q1 2010Q1 2012Q4 2015Q3 2018Q2 2021Q1 Employment by industry (thousands of people) Employment by industry (thousands of people) Agriculture Wholesale and retail trade Mining Transport Manufacturing 200 Public administration and defence 200 400 400 Construction Education 180 180 160 160 300 300 140 140 120 120 200 200 100 100 100 100 80 80 60 60 2010Q1 2012Q4 2015Q3 2018Q2 2021Q1 2010Q1 2012Q4 2015Q3 2018Q2 2021Q1 8. Regions and Industries Regional percent share of GDP Industry percent share of GDP 30 Agriculture 30 Mining Manufacturing 60 60 Wholesale and retail trade 25 Transport 25 Service 50 50 20 20 Western region 40 40 Khangai region Central region Eastern region 15 15 30 Ulaanbaatar 30 20 20 10 10 10 10 5 5 Y2000 Y2004 Y2008 Y2012 Y2019 Y2000 Y2005 Y2010 Y2015 Y2021Q1 9. Government Government budget balance (%, share of GDP) Government budget revenue (%, YoY) Government budget balance 3 3 150 150 0 0 100 100 3 3 6 6 50 50 9 9 0 0 12 12 15 15 50 50 Y2005 Y2009 Y2013 Y2017 Y2021Q1 2000M1 2005M4 2010M7 2015M10 2021M3 Government budget expenditure (%, YoY) Government debt (billion tugriks) 100 100 Total 25,000 Internal 25,000 External 80 80 20,000 20,000 60 60 15,000 15,000 40 40 10,000 10,000 20 20 0 0 5,000 5,000 20 20 0 0 2000M1 2005M4 2010M7 2015M10 2021M3 2015Q1 2016Q3 2018Q1 2019Q3 2021Q1 10. Commodity Prices Commodity price index (World Bank) Commodity price index (2003.12=100) 180 180 Energy 700 Gold 700 Precious metals Copper 160 Agriculture 160 Coal Metals & minerals 600 600 140 140 500 500 120 120 400 400 100 100 80 80 300 300 60 60 200 200 40 40 100 100 20 20 2000M1 2005M4 2010M7 2015M10 2021M3 2000M1 2005M4 2010M7 2015M10 2021M3 Export commodity prices ($/tonne, free on board basis) Terms of trade (2015.12=100) Copper 120 Coal (right) 110 110 2,000 100 80 105 105 1,500 60 100 100 1,000 40 95 95 500 20 2003M3 2007M9 2012M3 2016M9 2021M3 2019M1 2019M7 2020M1 2020M7 2021M3 11.