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Türkiye Erkek Milli Basketbol Takımının FIBA Eurobasket

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Türkiye Erkek Milli Basketbol Takımının FIBA Eurobasket DEÜ FMD 22(66), 975-985, 2020 Türkiye Erkek Milli Basketbol Takımının FIBA EuroBasket Turnuvasındaki Başarısının Doğrusal Karma Etkiler Modelleri ile Değerlendirilmesi Evaluation the Success of Turkey Men National Basketball Team in FIBA Eurobasket with Linear Mixed Effects Model 1* 2 1 Melike Kaya Bahçecitapar , Simge Ilgım Horat , Serpil Aktaş Altunay 1 Hacettepe Üniversitesi Fen Fakültesi , Ankara, 2 Üniversitesi Fen Fakültesi , , İstatistik Bölümü TÜRKİYE Sorumlu Yazar / Corresponding Author *: Mimar Sinan Güzel Sanatlar İstatistik Bölümü İstanbul TÜRKİYE [email protected] Geliş Tarihi / Received: 18.11.2019 Araştırma Makalesi/Research Article Kabul Tarihi / Accepted: 21.02.2020 DOI:10.21205/deufmd.2020226630 Atıf şekli/ How to cite: BAHCECITAPAR KAYA, M., HORAT, S.I., ALTUNAY, S.A., (2020). Türkiye Erkek Milli Basketbol Takımının FIBA EuroBasket Turnuvasındaki Başarısının Doğrusal Karma Etkiler Modelleri ile Değerlendirilmesi. DEUFMD 22(66), 975-985. Öz Türkiye, Dünya’da en çok izlenen basketbol turnuvalarının başında gelen FIBA Eurobasket’e düzenlendiği ilk yıllardan beri katılan bir ülkedir. Literatürde, EuroBasket’e katılan takımların istatistiksel verilerini kullanarak nicel analiz yapan sınırlı sayıda çalışma bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye Erkek Milli Basketbol Takımının Eurobasket’teki başarısını doğrusal karma etkiler modelleri (DKEM) ile değerlendirmek -ve DKEM kullanılarak, EuroBasket’e katılan Avrupa ülkeleri erkek basketbol takımlarından zaman boyunca tekrarlı olarak elde edilen verimlilik puanlarını analiz etmektir.- DKEM ile hesaplanan takım özel etkiler ile her bir takımın uzun süreli veri yapısındaki verimlilik puanlarının zaman boyunca değişimi incelenmiştir. Çalışmada, Eurobasket’e katılan 20 takımın 2007 2017 yılları arasındaki verimlilik puanları ele alınmıştır. Verimlilik puanları hesaplanırken, takımların yıllara göre sayı, toplam başarılı atış, toplam atış, serbest atış, başarılı serbest atış, hücum ribaundu, savunma ribaundu, top çalma, asist, blok, faul ve top kaybı bilgileri dikkate alınmıştır. Zaman boyunca elde edilen verimlilik puanları hem takımlara hem de yıllara göre hesaplanan tanımlayıcı istatistikler ile özetlenmiştir. Veriler SAS istatistiksel paket programında analiz edilmiştir. Takımların son altı sezon verimlilik puan ortalamalarına göre, Türkiye erkek milli basketbol takımı EuroBasket’te 20 takım arasında 11. sırada yer almaktadır. DKEM analizi yapılarak, Türkiye erkek milli basketbol takımının EuroBasket verimlilik puanlarının zaman boyunca gösterdiği değişimin, tüm takımların. verimlilik puanlarının bir bütün olarak zaman boyunca gösterdiği Anahtardeğişimden Kelimele farklır: EuroBasket olmadığı Şampiyonası,bulunmuştur. Uzun Son süreli altı veriler, sezonda Doğrusal verimlilik karma etkilerpuanına modelleri göre en yüksek başarıyı 2009 yılında elde etmiştir Abstract - Turkey is a country participating since the first year from the beginning of the world's most watched basketball tournament FIBA Eurobasket. There are a limited number of studies in the literature that perform quantitative analysis using statistical 975data from teams participating in EuroBasket. The DEÜ FMD 22(66), 975-985, 2020 purpose of this study is to evaluate the sucess of the Turkey Men's National Basketball Team in Eurobasket by linear mixed -effects model (LME) and, using the LME models to analyze the- productivity scores obtained from men's basketball teams repeatedly over time. The change of productivity scores in the long term data structure of each team over time is examined with the team specific effects calculated with LMM. Productivity scores of 20 teams participating in Eurobasket between 2007 and 2017 are discussed. When calculating the productivity scores, number of teams, total successful shots, total shots, free throws, successful free throws, offensive rebounds,ars. The data defense set is rebounds, steals, assists, blocks, fouls and ball losses are taken into consideration. Productivity scores obtained over time are summarized by descriptive statistics for both teams and ye analyzed using SAS. According to the team of last six seasons’ productivity average score, male EuroBasket national basketball team Turkey took 11th place among 20 teams. Analyzing LMM models, changes of Turkey during the time of the men's national last six basketballseasons. team of EuroBasket productivity scores are found not to be different from all the teams change’s over time. It has achieved Keywords: EuroBasket Championship Longitudinal Data, Linear Mixed Effects Models the highest success in 2009 in terms of productivity scores in 1. Giriş düzenlenmektedir. Dünya Basketbol Şampiyonası için bir ön eleme turnuvası olma Basketbol, Türkiye’de olduğu gibi Dünya’nın özelliği, EuroBasket’in en çok izlenen basketbol birçok yerinde büyük ilgi gören bir spor dalıdır. turnuvalarından biri olmasına neden olmuştur. EuroBasket (Avrupa Basketbol Şampiyonası), Eurobasket turnuvasının istatistikleri NBA (National Basketball Association) ve incelendiğinde, Türkiye’nin birçok turnuvada ilk Türkiye Basketbol Ligi gibi popüler ona girerek çok sayıda ülkeyi geride bıraktığı organizasyonlarda müsabakaları geniş kitleler görülmektedir. ’deki en iyi tarafından takip edilmektedir. Son yıllarda, basketbol organizasyonlarında takımların EuroBasket, Avrupa ve Türkiye performansını ortaya koyan çalışmalara ilgi takımların oyuncularının oynadığı bir turnuva giderek artmaktadır. Bu çalışmaların çoğunda, haline gelmiştir. Her bir EuroBasket takım başarısını ve bu başarı üzerinde etkili turnuvasında rekabet içerisinde olan takımlar olduğu düşünülen takım veya oyuncu farklılık göstermektedir. Literatürde, istatistiklerini incelemek için verimlilik puanları EuroBasket’e katılan takımların istatistiksel kullanılmıştır [1,2]. Verimlilik puanı, verilerini kullanarak nicel analiz yapan sınırlı basketbolda takımların ve oyuncuların sayıda çalışma bulunmaktadır. Vaquera ve performansını değerlendiren kolay ve anlaşılır arkadaşları [4] EuroBasket 2011 bir kavramdır. Verimlilik puanlarının Şampiyonası’nda maç boyunca hakemlerin hesaplanmasında en önemli faktör, bir takımın fiziksel kondüsyonları değerlendirilmiştir. kazanmasında etkili olan istatistiklerin Lesjak ve arkadaşları [5] trafik sıkışıklığı ve park belirlenmesidir. Serbest atış, başarılı serbest olaraetme sorunlarını, EuroBasket 2013’ün neden, atış, şut yüzdesi, ribaund ve fauller vb. gibi takım olduğu yüksek düzeyde olumsuz sosyal etkiler istatistikleri puanların hesaplanmasında k tanımlamıştır. Çetin ve Eren [6] kulanılan önemli değişkenler olarak EuroBasket 2015 için çok ölçütlü karar verme2007- tanımlanmıştır [3]. Ancak, EuroBasket gibi yöntemlerini kullanarak oyun kurucu seçimi popüler bir basketbol organizasyonuna ilişkin yapmışlardır. Gudaityte ve arkadaşları [7]-kültürel yapılan analizlerde verimlilik puanlarını 2013 EuroBasket turnuvalarının farklı inceleyerek takımların performansını ülkelerdeki ekonomik ve sosyo hesaplayan istatistiksel modellerin kullanıldığı faydalarını analiz etmişlerdir. Gryko ve çalışmalara literatürde rastlanmamıştır. arkadaşları [8] EuroBasket 2015ir. turnuvasında Conte ve elit basketbol oyuncularının, E şut performanlarını erkekEuroBasket, Uluslararası Basketbol Federasyonu yapısal analiz ile incelemişt (FIBA) tarafından Avrupa ülkeleri Lukonaitiere [9] uroBasket 2017’de maçları basketbol takımları arasında düzenlenen kümeleme analizi ile gruplandırarak kazanan ve bir basketbol şampiyonasıdır. İlk kez 1935’te kaybeden bayan basketbol takımları arasında olmak üzere, 1947’den bu yana her iki yılda bir976 DEÜ FMD 22(66), 975-985, 2020 farklılık gösteren skorlama stratejilerini puanının maç sayısına bölünmesi ile incelemiştir. bulunmuştur.Verimlilik (1) = + (Toplam 0.4) Bu çalışmada, önceki çalışmalardan farklı olarak, (ToplamPuanı 0.7) ((Serbest EuroBasket şampiyonasında oynayan takımların Sayı Serbest Başarılı) 0Atış.4)) ∗ verimlilik puanları Doğrusal Karma Etkiler −+ (Hücum RibaunduAtış ∗ −0.7) Atış Modelleri (DKEM) kullanılarak incelenmiştir. −+ Başarılı(Savunma RibaunduAtış ∗0.3) DKEM, aynı birimlerden zaman boyunca elde + (Top Çalma 1.0) +∗ (Asist 0.7) edilen tekrarlı ölçümler niteliğinde olan uzun + (Blok 0.7) (Faul ∗0.4) süreli verilerin (longitudinal data) detaylı olarak (Top ∗1.0) ∗ analizini sağlayan ve kayıp gözlem durumunda ∗ − ∗ bile kullanılan bir istatistiksel analiz yöntemidir − Kaybı ∗ [10]. Literatürde, DKEM, EuroBasket verilerinin analiz edilmesinde daha önceden hiç Eş. 1’de kullanılan değişkenler aşağıdaki gibi kullanılmamıştır. Bu çalışmanın amaçları, tanımlanabilir:Sayı (S): EuroBasket şampiyonasındaki takımların performanslarını verimlilik puanları ile Topun çemberin içinde kalması veya Toplam başarılı atış (TBA): değerlendirmek ve DKEM ile takımların geçmesi ile elde edilen sayıdır. verimlilik puanlarının zaman boyunca 2 veya 3 sayı 2. Materyal ve Metot değişimini yorumlamaktır. yapmak amacıyla yapılan atışlardan sayı Toplam atış (TA): 2.1. Araştırma grubu olanların toplamıdır. 2 veya 3 sayı yapmak amacıylaSerbest yapılanatış (SA): atışların toplamıdır. 2007- da oynayan Araştırma grubunu EuroBasket şampiyonasında Serbest atış alanından 2017 yılları arasında 6 sezon müdahalesizBaşarılı serbest kullanılan atış atıştır. (BSA): toplam 20 basketbol takımı oluşturmaktadır. EuroBasket’in her sezonunda rekabet içinde Serbest atış alanından kullanılan atışların çemberden olan takımlar farklılık gösterdiğinden ve bu Hücum ribaundu (HR): çalışmanın amacının zaman boyunca tekrarlı geçmesi sonucu elde edilen sayıdır. olarak alınan
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