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Rubio Still Up, but Two-Way with Crist Would Be Tied

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Rubio Still Up, but Two-Way with Crist Would Be Tied FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE October 12, 2010 INTERVIEWS: DEAN DEBNAM 888-621-6988 / 919-880-4888 (serious media inquiries only please, other questions can be directed to Tom Jensen) QUESTIONS ABOUT THE POLL: TOM JENSEN 919-744-6312 Rubio Still Up, But Two-Way with Crist Would Be Tied Raleigh, N.C. – PPP has not polled the Florida Senate race since the weekend before the late-August primary, but the outlook remains the same: with independent Charlie Crist and actual Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek splitting Democrats, Republican Marco Rubio is cruising to a double-digit win in a three-way contest. If Meek were to drop out at this late stage, however, the gap between Crist and Rubio would vanish. Rubio has 44% to Crist’s 33% and Meek’s 21%. Amid speculation that a deal may be in place for Meek to exit the race, this poll confirms the hunch that the result would be a dead heat between the remaining two, with Crist and Rubio each at 46%. Virtually all of Meek’s independent support would move to Crist, but only some of his Democratic support. Democrats are split in the three-way, Crist at 42% and Meek at 41%, and Crist wins independents 50-27-19 over Rubio and Meek. Against just Rubio, Crist would win Democrats only 69-20 and independents 66-31, versus Rubio’s 80-14 lead with the GOP. Republicans make up almost as much of the electorate, at 40%, as Democrats’ 41%. Part of Rubio clinging onto a healthy lead and even a tie in the two-way with Crist is that the enthusiasm gap for Republicans has grown since August, from almost 6 points to almost 10 points. President Obama won the state by 2.5 points in 2008, but John McCain voters outnumber the president’s supporters by 7 points in this fall’s likely electorate, versus 3 last time. If this were 2008, Crist would still have only a third of the vote, with Rubio slightly less and Meek slightly more than they have now. But Crist would be leading Rubio by a 49-43 margin head-to-head. “Marco Rubio’s been sitting on a solid lead for weeks now,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “It will stay that way as long as the Democratic vote remains pretty evenly divided between now and the election. Unless Crist or Meek can break away with Democrats down the stretch this one will be an early call on election night.” PPP surveyed 448 likely Florida voters from October 9th to 10th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.6%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify. Complete results are attached, and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com. Public Policy Polling Phone: 888 621-6988 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Raleigh, NC 27604 Email: [email protected] Florida Survey Results Q1 The candidates for Senate are Independent Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Charlie Crist, Democrat Kendrick Meek, and of Marco Rubio? Republican Marco Rubio. If the election was 45% today, who would you vote for? Favorable........................................................ Unfavorable .................................................... 43% Charlie Crist .................................................... 33% Not sure .......................................................... 12% Kendrick Meek ................................................ 21% Q7 Would you prefer that Democrats or Marco Rubio ................................................... 44% Republicans were in control of the Senate in Undecided....................................................... 3% the next Congress? Q2 If the candidates for US Senate were just Democrats ...................................................... 43% Independent Charlie Crist and Republican 48% Marco Rubio, who would you vote for? Republicans .................................................... Not sure .......................................................... 9% Charlie Crist .................................................... 46% Q8 Do you think Charlie Crist cares more about Marco Rubio ................................................... 46% doing what’s best for Florida or what’s best for Undecided....................................................... 8% Charlie Crist? Q3 If the candidates for US Senate were just What's best for Florida.................................... 39% Democrat Kendrick Meek and Republican 51% Marco Rubio, who would you vote for? What's best for Charlie Crist ........................... Not sure .......................................................... 10% Kendrick Meek ................................................ 41% Q9 Do you approve or disapprove of President Marco Rubio ................................................... 48% Barack Obama’s job performance? 12% Undecided....................................................... Approve .......................................................... 42% Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor 52% Charlie Crist’s job performance? Disapprove...................................................... Not sure .......................................................... 6% Approve .......................................................... 47% Q10 Do you support or oppose drilling for oil off the Disapprove...................................................... 43% coast of Florida? 10% Not sure .......................................................... Support ........................................................... 46% Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion 43% of Kendrick Meek? Oppose ........................................................... Not sure .......................................................... 12% Favorable........................................................ 35% Unfavorable .................................................... 37% Not sure .......................................................... 28% October 9-10, 2010 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 448 likely voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Q11 Who did you vote for President in 2008? Q15 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2. If African-American, press 3. If other, press 4. John McCain................................................... 51% Hispanic.......................................................... 15% Barack Obama................................................ 44% White .............................................................. 70% Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 5% Q12 Would you describe yourself as a liberal, African-American ............................................ 11% moderate, or conservative? Other............................................................... 4% Liberal............................................................. 21% Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 40% 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are Moderate......................................................... older than 65, press 4. Conservative................................................... 39% 18 to 29........................................................... 8% Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. 30 to 45........................................................... 20% Woman ........................................................... 52% 46 to 65........................................................... 40% Man................................................................. 48% Older than 65 .................................................. 32% Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3. Democrat ........................................................ 41% Republican...................................................... 40% Independent/Other.......................................... 19% October 9-10, 2010 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 448 likely voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs 2008 Vote 2008 Vote John Bar ack Someone else/Don't John Bar ack Someone else/Don't Bas e McCain Obam a remember Bas e McCain Obam a remember Crist/Meek/Rubio Crist/Rubio Only Charlie Crist 33% 19% 46% 53% Charlie Crist 46% 19% 77% 61% Ke ndr ick M e e k 21% 2% 45% 8% Marco Rubio 46% 76% 11% 39% Marco Rubio 44% 78% 5% 39% Unde cide d 8% 5% 12% - Unde cide d 3% 2% 3% - 2008 Vote 2008 Vote John Bar ack Someone else/Don't John Bar ack Someone else/Don't Bas e McCain Obam a remember Bas e McCain Obam a remember Meek/Rubio Only Crist Approval Ke ndr ick M e e k 41% 9% 80% 20% Approve 47% 28% 68% 46% Marco Rubio 48% 80% 11% 42% Dis appr ove 43% 62% 21% 47% Unde cide d 12% 11% 9% 38% Not s ur e 10% 10% 11% 7% October 9-10, 2010 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 448 likely voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs 2008 Vote 2008 Vote John Bar ack Someone else/Don't John Bar ack Someone else/Don't Bas e McCain Obam a remember Bas e McCain Obam a remember Meek Favorability Rubio Favorability Favorable 35% 11% 65% 16% Favorable 45% 76% 10% 33% Unfavorable 37% 58% 13% 36% Unfavorable 43% 14% 78% 31% Not s ur e 28% 31% 21% 49% Not s ur e 12% 10% 11% 36% 2008 Vote 2008 Vote John Bar ack Someone else/Don't John Bar ack Someone else/Don't Bas e McCain Obam a remember Bas e McCain Obam a remember Senate Control Crist: Best for FL or Himself De m ocr ats 43% 7% 89% 16% What's best for 39% 20% 59% 50% Republicans 48% 87% 4% 46% Flor ida 7% 7% 39% Not s ur e 9% What's best for 51% 71% 29% 41% Charlie Crist
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