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Murari Lal (India), Hideo Harasawa (Japan), and Daniel Murdiyarso (Indonesia)

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Murari Lal (India), Hideo Harasawa (Japan), and Daniel Murdiyarso (Indonesia) 11 Asia MURARI LAL (INDIA), HIDEO HARASAWA (JAPAN), AND DANIEL MURDIYARSO (INDONESIA) Lead Authors: W.N. Adger (UK), S. Adhikary (Nepal), M. Ando (Japan), Y. Anokhin (Russia), R.V. Cruz (Philippines), M. Ilyas (Malaysia), Z. Kopaliani (Russia), F. Lansigan (Philippines), Congxian Li (China), A. Patwardhan (India), U. Safriel (Israel), H. Suharyono (Indonesia), Xinshi Zhang (China) Contributing Authors: M. Badarch (Mongolia), Xiongwen Chen (China), S. Emori (Japan), Jingyun Fang (China), Qiong Gao (China), K. Hall (USA), T. Jarupongsakul (Thailand), R. Khanna-Chopra (India), R. Khosa (India), M.P. Kirpes (USA), A. Lelakin (Russia), N. Mimura (Japan), M.Q. Mirza (Bangladesh), S. Mizina (Kazakhstan), M. Nakagawa (Japan), M. Nakayama (Japan), Jian Ni (China), A. Nishat (Bangladesh), A. Novoplansky (Israel), T. Nozawa (Japan), W.T . Piver (USA), P.S. Ramakrishnan (India), E. Rankova (Russia), T.L. Root (USA), D. Saltz (Israel), K.P. Sharma (Nepal), M.L. Shrestha (Nepal), G. Srinivasan (India), T.S. Teh (Malaysia), Xiaoping Xin (China), M. Yoshino (Japan), A. Zangvil (Israel), Guangsheng Zhou (China) Review Editors: Su Jilan (China) and T. Ososkova (Uzbekistan) CONTENTS Executive Summary 53 5 11. 2 . 4 . Oceanic and Coastal Ecosystems 56 6 11. 2 . 4 . 1 . Oceans and Coastal Zones 56 6 11. 1 . The Asian Region 53 9 11. 2 . 4 . 2 . Deltas, Estuarine, 11. 1 . 1 . Ba c k g r o u n d 53 9 and Other Coastal Ecosystems 56 7 11. 1 . 2 . Physical and Ecological Features 53 9 11.2.4.3. Coral Reefs 56 7 11. 1 . 2 . 1 . Regional Zonation 53 9 11.2.4.4. Fisheries and Aq u a c u l t u r e 56 8 11. 1 . 2 . 2 . Trends and Var i a b i l i t y 11. 2 . 4 . 5 . Tropical Cyclone and Storm Surge s 56 8 in Key Climate Var i a b l e s 54 1 11. 2 . 4 . 6 . Potential Impacts and 11. 1 . 2 . 3 . Extreme Events and Coastal Zone Management 56 9 Severe Weather Systems 54 3 11. 2 . 5 . Human Health 57 0 11. 1 . 3 . Scenarios of Future Climate Change 54 4 11. 2 . 5 . 1 . Thermal Stress and 11. 1 . 3 . 1 . Surface Air Tem p e r a t u r e 54 4 Air Pollution-Related Diseases 57 0 11. 1 . 3 . 2 . Diurnal Temperature Range 54 7 11. 2 . 5 . 2 . Vec t o r -Borne Diseases 57 0 11. 1 . 3 . 3 . Pr e c i p i t a t i o n 54 8 11. 2 . 5 . 3 . Diseases Resulting from 11. 1 . 3 . 4 . High-Resolution Climate Higher UV-B Exposures 57 1 Change Experiments 55 0 11. 2 . 5 . 4 . Other Diseases 57 1 11. 1 . 4 . Se n s i t i v i t y , Key Vul n e r a b i l i t i e s , 11. 2 . 6 . Human Dimensions 57 2 and Ad a p t a b i l i t y 55 1 11. 2 . 6 . 1 . Climate Extremes and Migration 57 2 11. 1 . 4 . 1 . Sensitivity and Key Vul n e r a b i l i t i e s 55 1 11. 2 . 6 . 2 . Infrastructure Linkages 57 2 11. 1 . 4 . 2 . Adaptability 55 2 11. 2 . 6 . 3 . In d u s t r y , Energy , and Tra n s p o r t a t i o n 57 2 11. 2 . 6 . 4 . Financial As p e c t s 57 3 11. 2 . Key Regional Concerns 55 2 11. 2 . 1 . Ecosystems and Biodiversity 55 3 11. 3 . Vulnerability and Adaptation Potential 57 4 11. 2 . 1 . 1 . Mountain and Highland Systems 55 3 11. 3 . 1 . Resilience of Resources, 11. 2 . 1 . 2 . Lakes/Streams, Rivers, and Glaciers 55 3 Populations, and Infrastructure 57 4 11.2.1.3.Forests, Grasslands, 11. 3 . 2 . Regional and Sectoral Strategies 57 6 and Rangelands 554 11. 3 . 2 . 1 . Boreal As i a 57 6 11 . 2 . 1 . 4 .D r y l a n d s 55 4 11. 3 . 2 . 2 . Arid and Semi-Arid As i a 57 6 11. 2 . 1 . 5 . Cryosphere and Permafrost 55 5 11. 3 . 2 . 3 . Temperate As i a 57 6 11. 2 . 1 . 6 . Protected Areas and 11. 3 . 2 . 4 . Tropical As i a 57 7 Risks to Living Species 55 5 11. 3 . 3 . Institutional and Financial Barriers 57 8 11. 2 . 2 . Agriculture and Food Security 55 6 11. 2 . 2 . 1 . Production Systems 55 6 11. 4 . Sy n t h e s i s 57 8 11. 2 . 2 . 2 . Grain Supply and Demand in As i a 55 8 11. 4 . 1 . Key Observations and Uncertainties 57 8 11. 2 . 2 . 3 . Food Security 56 0 11. 4 . 2 . Future Needs 58 0 11. 2 . 3 . Hydrology and Water Resources 56 2 11. 2 . 3 . 1 . Water Ava i l a b i l i t y 56 2 Re f e re n c e s 58 1 11. 2 . 3 . 2 . Water Needs and Management Im p l i c a t i o n s 56 5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Will the Climate in Asia Change? precipitation over south Asia (with or without aerosol forcings). Because much of tropical Asia is intrinsically linked with the Continuing emissions of greenhouse gases from human activities annual monsoon cycle, research into a better understanding of the are likely to result in significant changes in mean climate and future behavior of the monsoon and its variability is warranted. its intraseasonal and interannual variability in the Asian region. Given the current state of climate modeling, projections of future regional climate have only limited confidence. Currently Is Asia Vulnerable to Projected Climate Change? available general circulation models (GCMs) suggest that the area-averaged annual mean warming would be about 3°C in Climate change-induced vulnerabilities in Asia have to be the decade of the 2050s and about 5°C in the decade of the understood against the backdrop of the physical, economic, 2080s over the land regions of Asia as a result of future increases and social environment of the countries in the region. They not in atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. Under the only provide benchmarks against which vulnerabilities are to combined influence of greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosols, be assessed but also the potential for adaptation to them. The surface warming would be restricted to about 2.5°C in the 2050s socioeconomic environment of many countries in Asia is and about 4°C in the 2080s. In general, projected warming over c h a racterized by high population density and relatively low Asia is higher during Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter than rates of economic growth. Surface water and groundwater during summer for both time periods. The rise in surface air resources in Asian countries play vital roles in forestry, temperature is likely to be most pronounced over boreal Asia a g r iculture, fisheries, livestock production, and industrial in all seasons. GCM simulations project relatively more activity. The water and agriculture sectors are likely to be most p r onounced increases in minimum temperature than in maximum sensitive to climate change-induced impacts in Asia. Forest temperature over Asia on an annual mean basis, as well as during ecosystems in boreal Asia would suffer from floods and winter, hence a decrease in diurnal temperature range (DTR). increased volume of runoff associated with melting of During summer, however, an increase in DTR is projected, p e rmafrost regions. The dangerous processes of permafrost suggesting that the maximum temperature would have more degradation resulting from global warming strengthen the pronounced increases relative to the minimum temperature. v u lnerability of all relevant climate-dependent sectors affe c t i n g The summertime increase in DTR over central Asia is likely to the economy in high-latitude Asia. Although the frequency and be significantly higher relative to that in other regions. severity of floods eventually would increase in many countries of Asia, arid and semi-arid regions of Asia could experience In general, all GCMs simulate an enhanced hydrological cycle severe water-stress conditions. The stresses of climate change and an increase in area-averaged annual mean rainfall over are likely to disrupt the ecology of mountain and highland systems Asia. An annual mean increase in precipitation of approximately in Asia. Major changes in high-elevation ecosystems of Asia 7% in the 2050s and approximately 11% in the 2080s over the can be expected as a consequence of the impacts of climate change. land regions of Asia is projected from future increases in Many species of mammals and birds and a large population of atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. Under the many other species in Asia could be exterminated as a result combined influence of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols, of the synergistic effects of climate change and habitat the projected increase in precipitation is limited to about 3% f r a gmentation. Glacial melt also is expected to increase under and 7% in the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. The projected changed climate conditions, which would lead to increased increase in precipitation is greatest during NH winter for summer flows in some river systems for a few decades, followed both time periods. The increase in annual and winter mean by a reduction in flow as the glaciers disappear. p r ecipitation is projected to be highest in boreal Asia; as a c o nsequence, the annual runoff of major Siberian rivers is Agricultural productivity in Asia is likely to suffer severe losses expected to increase significantly.
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