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Committee Report JOINT LEGISLATIVE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND REVENUE ASSESSMENT COMMITTEE COMMITTEE REPORT FISCAL YEARS 2017 AND 2018 JANUARY 13, 2017 JOINT LEGISLATIVE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND REVENUE ASSESSMENT COMMITTEE FISCAL YEARS 2017 AND 2018 January 13, 2017 Committee Members To the 64th Idaho Legislature, 1st Regular Session: Sen. Dan Johnson Co-Chairman We have completed making our overall assessment of Governor Otter’s General Sen. Shawn Keough Fund revenue projections for the fiscal years ended June 30, 2017, 2018, and 2019. Idaho’s Constitution, Article VII, Section 11 requires balancing the state’s Sen. Steve Bair appropriations and expenditures with its revenues. Accordingly, it is this Committee’s role and mission to provide advice to you about the reasonableness Sen. Cliff Bayer of such revenue projections. The Committee reviewed and analyzed business, Sen. Dean Mortimer tax, financial data, and trends relating to the state’s economy, and obtained testimony from economic, business, and industry experts regarding those aspects Sen. Fred Martin of the state’s economy and revenues of which they have knowledge. Sen. Kelly Anthon Governor Otter’s General Fund revenue projections for FY 2017, FY 2018, and FY 2019 compared to the Committee’s median projections are as follows in Sen. Grant Burgoyne millions of dollars: FY 2017 FY 2018 FY 2019 Sen. Mark Nye Governor Otter’s projections $ 3,354.5 $ 3,507.4 $ 3,677.5 Rep. Marcus Gibbs Co-Chairman Committee’s median projections $ 3,344.9 $ 3,524.2 $ 3,718.8 Rep. Joe Palmer Amount and percent over/(under) ($9.7) $16.8 $41.3 Gov. projection (0.3%) 0.5% 1.1% Rep. Gary Collins Rep. Jeff Thompson Attachments 1 and 2 provide the detail for all eighteen committee members and three of the presenters. Rep. Rick Youngblood After careful consideration of expert testimony from economists, business Rep. Christy Perry leaders, and industry spokesmen regarding the status of Idaho’s current Rep. Lance Clow economy and the economic outlook for the next eighteen months, and careful review of the Governor’s fiscal year 2017 and 2018 projections, we recommend Rep. Mat Erpelding to the Senate and House of Representatives Leadership and to the Co-Chairs of the Joint Finance-Appropriations Committee total General Fund Revenues Rep. Paulette Jordan available for appropriation to be $3,354.5 million dollars for fiscal year 2017 and Legislative Staff $3,507.4 million dollars for fiscal year 2018. Keith Bybee Attachment 3 provides a historical comparison of projections and actual Budget & Policy Analyst collections. (208) 334-4739 [email protected] Respectfully, On-line Information On -line Information www.legislature.idaho.gov www.legislature.idaho.gov Representative Marc Gibbs Senator Dan Johnson 2017 Joint Legislative Economic Outlook and Revenue Assessment Committee General Fund Revenue Projections FY 2016 Revenues $3,183.7 Millions of Dollars Rank FY 2017 FY 16-17 Rank FY 2018 FY 17-18 Rank FY 2019 FY 18-19 Rank Three-year Participant #1 Estimate Change #2 Estimate Change #3 Estimate Change #4 Estimate Rep. Palmer 1 $3,327.0 4.5% 1 $3,476.7 4.5% 4 $3,633.1 4.5% 3 $10,436.8 Rep. Collins 5 $3,337.9 4.8% 2 $3,493.0 4.6% 6 $3,663.4 4.9% 5 $10,494.3 Rep. Gibbs 5 $3,337.9 4.8% 2 $3,493.0 4.6% 6 $3,663.4 4.9% 5 $10,494.3 Rep. Perry 8 $3,341.8 5.0% 4 $3,498.5 4.7% 3 $3,626.1 3.6% 4 $10,466.4 Sen. Bayer 4 $3,336.5 4.8% 5 $3,500.0 4.9% 8 $3,664.5 4.7% 7 $10,501.0 Associated Taxpayers 3 $3,335.6 4.8% 6 $3,501.0 5.0% 1 $0.0 (100.0%) 1 $6,836.6 Sen. Bair 9 $3,342.1 5.0% 7 $3,505.0 4.9% 5 $3,660.8 4.4% 8 $10,507.9 Sorted by FY 2018 Estimate Sen. Burgoyne 7 $3,339.7 4.9% 8 $3,506.7 5.0% 10 $3,682.0 5.0% 9 $10,528.4 Optomistic to Pessimistic Governor's Forecast 15 $3,354.5 5.4% 9 $3,507.4 4.6% 9 $3,677.5 4.8% 10 $10,539.5 Sen. Martin 10 $3,342.9 5.0% 10 $3,516.7 5.2% 16 $3,727.7 6.0% 12 $10,587.3 Rep. Erpelding 2 $3,330.3 4.6% 11 $3,518.3 5.6% 20 $3,740.9 6.3% 14 $10,589.5 Committee Average 13 $3,347.6 5.1% 12 $3,523.6 5.3% 12 $3,709.5 5.3% 11 $10,580.7 * Committee Median 11 $3,344.9 5.1% 13 $3,524.2 5.4% 14 $3,718.8 5.5% 13 $10,587.9 Sen. Mortimer 19 $3,358.8 5.5% 14 $3,530.1 5.1% 18 $3,734.8 5.8% 17 $10,623.7 Sen. Keough 23 $3,365.2 5.7% 15 $3,533.4 5.0% 13 $3,710.1 5.0% 16 $10,608.7 Rep. Clow 18 $3,357.2 5.4% 16 $3,539.6 5.4% 15 $3,727.5 5.3% 18 $10,624.3 Sen. Anthon 16 $3,355.6 5.4% 17 $3,543.5 5.6% 19 $3,738.4 5.5% 20 $10,637.5 Sen. Johnson 19 $3,358.8 5.5% 17 $3,543.5 5.5% 17 $3,731.3 5.3% 19 $10,633.6 Sen. Nye 22 $3,363.2 5.6% 19 $3,544.0 5.4% 11 $3,701.2 4.4% 15 $10,608.4 Rep. Youngblood 17 $3,356.2 5.4% 20 $3,551.7 5.8% 21 $3,755.0 5.7% 21 $10,662.9 Rep. Jordan 12 $3,346.8 5.1% 21 $3,565.0 6.5% 22 $3,805.0 6.7% 22 $10,716.8 Rep. Thompson 21 $3,359.1 5.5% 22 $3,566.0 6.2% 23 $3,805.1 6.7% 23 $10,730.2 Universities 14 $3,353.8 5.3% 23 $3,569.4 6.4% 24 $3,814.3 6.9% 24 $10,737.5 Tax Commission 24 $3,375.3 6.0% 24 $3,602.2 6.7% 1 $0.0 (100.0%) 2 $6,977.5 Range of Participants $48.3 $125.5 $188.2 $300.7 * The Committee Median is the average of the ninth and tenth committee members' estimates in the ordered set of eighteen members. Diff. Com. Median from Governor ($9.7) $16.8 $41.3 Percent Diff. from Gov Forecast (0.3%) 0.5% 1.1% Economic Outlook and Revenue Assessment Committee Exhibit 1 2017 Joint Legislative Economic Outlook and Revenue Assessment Committee General Fund Revenue Projections $3,900.0 $3,800.0 $3,700.0 $3,600.0 $3,500.0 $3,400.0 $3,300.0 $3,200.0 FY 2017 Estimate FY 2018 Estimate FY 2019 Estimate Economic Outlook and Revenue Assessment Committee Exhibit 2 Historical Comparison of Original Projections to Actual Collections Line Graph $4,000.0 $3,800.0 M $3,600.0 i l l $3,400.0 FY 2016 i 3,183.7 o n $3,200.0 FY 2015 FY 2008 3,056.8 s 2,909.8 FY 2014 o $3,000.0 2,815.4 FY 2013 f 2,750.3 D $2,800.0 o l l $2,600.0 a r s $2,400.0 FY 2009 2,465.6 FY 2012 2,587.7 FY 2010 $2,200.0 FY 2011 2,264.5 2,444.5 $2,000.0 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 FY 2016 FY 2017 FY 2018 Universities EORAC Recom Gov's Forecast JFAC Used Actual Collections Economic Outlook and Revenue Assessment Committee Exhibit 3.
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