2019 Election: Seat Clusters October Survey Results

October 2019 2 Overview

In , we count seats, not votes. Just like in American Presidential elections, you can win the popular vote and lose the election. In fact, that happened to ’s father in 1979. The general way analysts address that is to look at seats by region. However, seats in the same region can move differently. This release tries to get closer to reality in the seat-by-seat contest. Our analysis combines two projects: • An analysis of federal election districts (which we call “seats”) that groups them into 14 clusters based on which parties are most competitive in those seats. Given the shifting dynamics of Canada’s party system, we have relied on only the results of the past two elections. However, to assess where the parties stand in these 14 seat clusters, we need a lot of data. • A merge of the most recent three national surveys that include federal votes, creating an unweighted total of 5,229 respondents and a weighted total of 4,500. In each of our surveys, we collect postal codes. That allows us to create a riding variable for almost all our respondents and to group their responses by riding. The deck to follow shows the output from the analysis. 3 Online Sample Methodology: October 2019

• This report combines the results of two online surveys conducted in October 2019. • In total, the dataset contains a representative sample of n= 4,500 Canadians, 18 years or older. Online samples for the Tracking survey of the surveys were provided by Lucid, while the Ad Testing survey sample was provided by Dynata, both leading providers of online samples. The dates and sample sizes for each survey were: • Tracking Survey: Conducted from October 15th to October 17th, 2019 with an unweighted sample size of 3,094 (weighted to 3,000) • Ad-Testing Survey Wave 4: Conducted from October 15th to October 17th , 2019 with an unweighted sample size of 1,964 (weighted to 1,500) • The combined sample is weighted to n=4,500 by age, gender and provincial sub-regions using the latest Statistics Canada Census data. Results are weighted to ensure that the overall sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population to provide results that are intended to approximate a probability sample. • Respondents were grouped together into their federal electoral districts based on their postal code. A weighted total of 541 respondents could not be grouped into a federal electoral district because they did not provide a postal code or their postal code matched multiple districts. • INNOVATIVE provides each panellist with a unique URL via an email invitation so that only invited panel members are able to complete the survey, and panel members can only complete a particular survey once. Sub-regional quotas are set within regions to ensure there is a representative sample of respondents from across the entire region. • This is a representative sample. However, since the online survey was not a random probability-based sample, a margin of error cannot be calculated. Statements about margins of sampling error or population estimates do not apply to most online panels.

Note: Graphs may not always total 100% due to rounding values rather than any error in data. Sums are added before rounding numbers. Online Sample Methodology: Regional Breakdown

Tracking Wave 2 Unweighted (n) Unweighted (%) Weighted (n) Weighted (%) BC 490 15.8% 408 13.6%

Alberta 405 13.1% 340 11.3%

Prairies 231 7.5% 200 6.7%

Ontario 1,029 33.3% 1,146 38.2%

Quebec 699 22.6% 701 23.4%

Atlantic 240 7.8% 204 6.8%

Ad-Testing Wave 4 Unweighted (n) Unweighted (%) Weighted (n) Weighted (%) BC 278 14.2% 204 13.6%

Alberta 209 10.6% 170 11.4%

Prairies 108 5.5% 100 6.7%

Ontario 662 33.7% 574 38.3%

Quebec 566 28.8% 350 23.4%

Atlantic 141 7.2% 102 6.8% Topline Federal Vote Decided Federal Vote – Tracking Study: The Liberals are steady since 6 early September, maintain a four point lead over the Conservatives If a federal election were held today, which party would you vote for? In that case, which party do you lean toward slightly? [DECIDED VOTE] Q [showing only decided voters; n=2,663]

34% 30%

19% 8% 6%

3%

Jul-19

Jan-10 Jan-16 Jan-17

Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-11 Jun-16 Jun-18

Oct-08 Oct-11 Oct-18

Apr-08 Apr-13 Apr-15 Apr-18

Feb-08 Sep-09 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Feb-18 Feb-19

July-15

Dec-08 Dec-11 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-17 Dec-18

Aug-08 Aug-11 Aug-17 Aug-18

Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-12 Nov-15 Nov-16

Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-16 Mar-17

May-10 May-14 May-17 May-19

Oct-19W2

Apr-19W1 Sep-19W2 The Conservative Party The Liberal Party The The Bloc Québécois The Green Party Another party

Note: People’s Party of Canada has been added since September 2018, included in ‘Another party’. Decided Vote – Ad Testing: The Bloc Quebecois are up substantially 7 since Wave 3 If the federal election were held today, how likely would you be to vote for each of the following federal political parties? Please answer on a scale Q from 0 to 10 where 0 means you definitely will not vote for that party and 10 means you definitely will vote for that party. [Vote choice defined as the party a respondent ranks the highest. Ties are treated as undecided voters. Voters who are undecided or select don’t know for every party are not shown]

Wave 4 [N=1,137] 31% 33% 14% 9% 8% 4%

Wave 3 [N=1,645] 33% 35% 13% 5% 10% 4%

Wave 2 [N=1,636] 34% 35% 12% 5% 10% 4%

Wave 1 [N=1,894] 34% 33% 13% 5% 11% 5%

Conservative Liberal NDP Bloc Green People's Party Decided Vote by Region: Different online panels disagree on how 8 strong the Bloc is in Quebec

Q Decided Vote by Region

Total Ad Testing 31% 33% 14% 9% 8% 4% Tracking 30% 34% 19% 6% 8% 2%

BC Ad Testing 27% 33% 20% 14% 7% Tracking 29% 29% 26% 12% 3%

AB Ad Testing 66% 13% 10% 5% 6% Tracking 54% 19% 18% 5% 4%

Prairies Ad Testing 49% 22% 15% 11% 2% Tracking 38% 25% 28% 7% 1%

Ontario Ad Testing 31% 41% 18% 7% 4% Tracking 31% 40% 19% 8% 2%

Quebec Ad Testing 13% 31% 7% 39% 7% 4% Tracking 14% 36% 12% 28% 8% 2%

Atlantic Ad Testing 31% 37% 15% 15% 2% Tracking 23% 45% 17% 11% 4%

Conservative Liberal NDP Bloc Green People's Party Other Federal Vote: Seat Clusters 10 The Seat Clusters

In Canadian elections, we count seats not votes. Seat Clusters Seats Weighted Sample Size For this analysis, we have grouped seats together into clusters where ridings are Strong CPC 65 763 similar to one another according to which parties have historically been successful Strong LPC 32 340 there in addition to the region where the seat is located. LPC-CPC GTA 33 428 These seat clusters can help us better understand changes in support for parties in LPC-CPC Rest of Ontario 34 400 ridings which have typically had similar voting behaviour. Each of these clusters is LPC-CPC Lower mainland 11 125 listed along with the pooled sample size of respondents from each cluster. LPC-CPC Atlantic 14 105 The core analysis that drives the groups is based on classifying ridings as: Other LPC-CPC 19 209 LPC-NDP Quebec 27 364 • Stronghold: A seat won by a party in both 2011 and 2015 by >10% LPC-NDP RoC 26 307 • Competitive: A seat won in either 2011 or 2015 by the party OR lost by an NDP Strong/Swing QC 14 176 average of less than 10% across both elections (a seat can be competitive for NDP Strong/Swing RoC 16 193 multiple parties) BQ Competitive 18 188 • Two-way races (e.g. LPC-CPC): Seats that are competitive for both listed parties, Green target 15 179 but for no other parties. 2015 3-Way 14 179

See the Appendix for detailed definitions of each cluster and which ridings they contain. Strong CPC: Conservatives continue to hold on to most of their 2015 11 support in their safest seats

Q Decided Vote The strongest Conservative seats across Oct 15 - 17 2019 Polling 21% 50% 16% 6%4% the last two elections. These seats are Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 22% 53% 12% 7% 4% unlikely to flip in the 2019 campaign.

Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 24% 49% 11% 9% 5%

June - Sept 2019 Polling 24% 51% 10% 8% 5% Seats Won Seats Won Party Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 22% 51% 11% 10% 4% 2015 2011*

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 26% 50% 11% 6% 5% Liberal 0 0

2015 Election Results 25% 56% 14% 3% CPC 65 62

NDP 0 3 Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Bloc Québécois Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts LPC-CPC Atlantic: Uptick for Liberals in early October has levelled out; 12 now only 2 points ahead of Conservatives as NDP support grows Q Decided Vote

Seats historically competitive for Oct 15 - 17 2019 Polling 34% 32% 15% 16% 2% both Liberals and Conservatives in Atlantic Canada. Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 46% 25% 8% 19% 2%

Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 37% 33% 7% 17% 6%

June - Sept 2019 Polling 37% 39% 7% 13% 4% Seats Won Seats Won Party Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 41% 31% 8% 15% 5% 2015 2011*

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 38% 26% 13% 10% 11% Liberal 14 0

2015 Election Results 54% 27% 14% 3% CPC 0 14 NDP 0 0 Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Bloc Québécois Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts LPC-CPC Rest of Ontario: Conservatives pull ahead of Liberals with a 4- 13 point advantage; NDP grows support by 6 points since early October

Q Decided Vote

Races that have been historically Oct 15 - 17 2019 Polling 33% 37% 17% 10%2% close between the Liberals and Conservatives in Ontario outside of Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 39% 34% 11% 12% 4% the GTA. Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 36% 35% 12% 12% 5%

June - Sept 2019 Polling 39% 32% 10% 15% 4% Seats Won Seats Won Party Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 37% 35% 12% 12% 5% 2015 2011*

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 44% 37% 10% 7%2% Liberal 18 0

2015 Election Results 44% 39% 13% 3% CPC 16 34 NDP 0 0 Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Bloc Québécois Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts LPC-CPC Toronto & GTA: The Liberals regain advantage over 14 Conservatives with 12-point lead

Q Decided Vote

Oct 15 - 17 2019 Polling 45% 33% 14% 5%2% Races that have been historically close between the Liberals and Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 42% 38% 10% 7%2% Conservatives in Toronto and the GTA.

Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 44% 35% 10% 8%5%

June - Sept 2019 Polling 41% 35% 12% 7% 4% Seats Won Seats Won Party Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 43% 36% 11% 6% 4%0%1% 2015 2011*

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 43% 38% 10% 4%4% Liberal 30 0

2015 Election Results 49% 39% 9%2%1% CPC 3 33 NDP 0 0 Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Bloc Québécois Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts LPC-CPC Lower Mainland: Liberals drop 9 points since last poll while 15 Conservatives gain 8; Liberal lead narrows to only 4 points

Q Decided Vote

Oct 15 - 17 2019 Polling 37% 33% 14% 14% 1% Seats historically competitive for both Liberals and Conservatives in Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 46% 25% 13% 13% 2%0% BC’s Lower Mainland.

Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 29% 36% 15% 14% 5%0%

June - Sept 2019 Polling 35% 33% 16% 10% 6% Seats Won Seats Won Party Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 28% 36% 18% 13% 4%0%1% 2015 2011*

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 33% 39% 14% 11% 3%0%1% Liberal 7 0

2015 Election Results 43% 37% 16% 4% CPC 4 11 NDP 0 0 Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Bloc Québécois Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts Other LPC-CPC: Liberals drop 5 points since last poll, now neck-in- 16 neck with Conservatives going into election

Q Decided Vote

Oct 15 - 17 2019 Polling 33% 34% 20% 10%1% Liberal vs. Tory races in the rest of the country. Three of these are in Quebec, Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 38% 35% 17% 7%2%0% five in BC’s Interior or North, and eleven in the Prairies or Alberta Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 35% 37% 12% 8% 5%4%

June - Sept 2019 Polling 33% 40% 15% 7% 3%3% Seats Won Seats Won Party Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 34% 39% 11% 8% 4%4%0% 2015 2011*

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 41% 34% 12% 6% 4%2%0% Liberal 13 1

2015 Election Results 43% 37% 14% 3%2%1% CPC 6 17 NDP 0 1 Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Bloc Québécois Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts 2015 3-Way: NDP and Liberals tied at 24% support while 17 Conservatives remain ahead with 8-point lead

Q Decided Vote

Seats that were 3-way races in the Oct 15 - 17 2019 Polling 24% 32% 24% 6% 5% 10% 2015 election campaign. Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 29% 39% 13% 9% 1% 9%0%

Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 35% 36% 14% 11% 1%3%0%

June - Sept 2019 Polling 25% 29% 23% 13% 5%4% Seats Won Seats Won Party Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 34% 30% 19% 11% 2%3%1% 2015 2011*

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 32% 36% 20% 5%2%4%1% Liberal 6 0

2015 Election Results 31% 30% 31% 3%4%1% CPC 3 9 NDP 5 5 Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Bloc Québécois Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts Strong LPC: The Liberals continue to lead in these seats as gap widens 18 with Conservatives to a 34-point advantage for Liberals

Q Decided Vote The strongest LPC seats that they Oct 15 - 17 2019 Polling 53% 19% 18% 6%2%1% held onto even in the tough 2011 campaign. These seats are their Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 46% 27% 15% 6% 4%1%0% core base.

Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 47% 26% 12% 9% 4%2%

June - Sept 2019 Polling 46% 25% 13% 9% 4%3% Seats Won Seats Won Party Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 47% 25% 14% 8% 4%2%0% 2015 2011*

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 51% 24% 14% 5%3%3%0% Liberal 32 32

2015 Election Results 62% 20% 14% 3%1% CPC 0 0 NDP 0 0 Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Bloc Québécois Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts LPC-NDP Quebec: NDP is down 12 points since 2015 in these seats, 19 leaving Liberals with a strong lead even as support for the Bloc grows

Q Decided Vote

Oct 15 - 17 2019 Polling 46% 8% 12% 6%3% 25% Seats historically competitive between the Liberals and NDP in Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 48% 12% 8% 8% 3% 21% Quebec.

Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 43% 20% 9% 8% 3% 18%

June - Sept 2019 Polling 44% 17% 10% 12% 3% 15% Seats Won Seats Won Party Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 49% 15% 9% 6% 4% 16% 0% 2015 2011*

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 43% 13% 13% 8% 2% 19% 1% Liberal 26 0

2015 Election Results 44% 13% 24% 2% 17% CPC 0 0 NDP 0 26 Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Bloc Québécois Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts LPC-NDP Rest of Canada: Liberals maintain solid lead over both 20 Conservatives and NDP, widening gap with NDP to 17 points

Q Decided Vote

Oct 15 - 17 2019 Polling 43% 20% 26% 8%2% Seats historically competitive between the NDP and Liberals Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 37% 23% 26% 9% 4%1% outside of Quebec.

Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 43% 21% 21% 11% 3%

June - Sept 2019 Polling 43% 25% 18% 12%2% Seats Won Seats Won Apr - Mar 2019 Polling Party 46% 22% 21% 7% 4%0% 2015 2011*

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 47% 21% 19% 9%3%0% Liberal 26 1

2015 Election Results 49% 16% 32% 3% CPC 0 0

NDP 0 26 Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Bloc Québécois Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts Quebec NDP Strong/Swing: The Bloc are up 17 points in these seats 21 since the last election, now ahead of the Liberals by 16 points

Q Decided Vote The strongest NDP seats in Oct 15 - 17 2019 Polling 22% 11% 16% 10% 3% 38% Quebec grouped with some in Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 28% 16% 12% 8% 3% 33% which they were competitive against the Conservatives or Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 31% 17% 13% 11% 3% 23% 1% Bloc.

June - Sept 2019 Polling 30% 20% 11% 10% 4% 26%

Seats Won Seats Won Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 32% 18% 12% 9% 6% 22% 1% Party 2015 2011* Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 26% 18% 20% 6% 7% 22% 2% Liberal 0 0

2015 Election Results 27% 13% 36% 2% 21% 1% CPC 1 1

Liberal Conservative NDP NDP 13 13 Green People's Party Bloc Québécois Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts NDP Strong/Swing Rest of Canada: These seats are now a three-way 22 race between the Liberals, Conservatives, and NDP

Q Decided Vote

The strongest NDP seats outside of Oct 15 - 17 2019 Polling 31% 32% 27% 6%3%1% Quebec grouped with some in which they were competitive Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 30% 32% 29% 7%2% against the Conservatives. Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 29% 28% 34% 4%4%

June - Sept 2019 Polling 28% 30% 26% 9% 6%1% Seats Won Seats Won Party Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 27% 32% 25% 13% 2%1%0% 2015 2011*

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 35% 32% 20% 10%2%1%0% Liberal 0 0

2015 Election Results 28% 26% 42% 3%1% CPC 0 2 NDP 16 14 Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Bloc Québécois Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts Green Target: Greens drop 11 points since early October while Liberals 23 maintain their lead

Q Decided Vote Seats where the Greens showed some Oct 15 - 17 2019 Polling 32% 26% 23% 13% 2%3% strength in 2015 and could target this time around. 7/15 of these seats are Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 31% 17% 23% 24% 1%2% on Island.

Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 29% 27% 18% 20% 5%2% Seats Won Seats Won Party June - Sept 2019 Polling 30% 24% 18% 20% 5%3% 2015 2011*

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 34% 23% 19% 18% 5%1% Liberal 6 2 CPC 0 5 Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 36% 25% 12% 20% 4%1% NDP 7 7 2015 Election Results 33% 21% 26% 17% 2% Bloc 1 0 Green 1 1 Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Bloc Québécois Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts BQ Competitive: The Bloc is up 11 points in these seats since the last 24 election, leaving them 17 points ahead of Liberals

Q Decided Vote Seats where the Bloc has been Oct 15 - 17 2019 Polling 24% 19% 7% 7%2% 41% competitive in 2011 and 2015, excluding some that fall into other Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 26% 17% 8% 14% 1% 34% clusters.

Sept 10 - 25 2019 Polling 33% 18% 5% 11% 3% 30%

June - Sept 2019 Polling 24% 22% 7% 14% 4% 28% 1% Seats Won Seats Won Party 2015 2011* Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 27% 27% 6% 12% 3% 23% 2% Liberal 5 0 Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 20% 26% 13% 7%1% 31% 2% CPC 1 0 2015 Election Results 29% 11% 27% 2% 30% 1% NDP 3 14

Liberal Conservative NDP Bloc 9 4 Green People's Party Bloc Québécois Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts Federal Vote: Battleground Regions 26 Regional Analysis

RespondentsQ were grouped together into their federal electoral districts N-Size Region Subregion based on the first three digits of their postal code. The electoral districts Oct 15-17 were then grouped geographically into subregions within the larger Atlantic Urban Atlantic 113 divisions of the country. Canada Rural Atlantic 150 This section shows the results of the each subregions and compares Quebec City Area 156 Rural Francophone Quebec 289 them to the last election. It also highlights how many of the seats in Quebec those regions were won by each party in both the 2015 and the 2011 Francophone Montreal/Suburbs 267 elections (2011 seat totals are calculated by redistributing votes from Quebec: Anglophone or Mixed 227 2011 onto the electoral districts used in 2015). Toronto 312 GTA Suburbs 392 Ontario Because of the small sample in each subregion, the results of the several South/West 415 surveys have been pooled together. North/East 406 Saskatoon/Regina 63 The table beside here shows the complete list of regions and the sample Prairies Winnipeg 111 size of respondents in each region. The total weighted n-size of Rest of Prairies 87 respondents matched to electoral districts is 3,955 in the October 15th Edmonton 114 th to 17 sample. Alberta Calgary 135 Rest of Alberta 193 City of Vancouver 78 Vancouver Suburbs 184 BC Vancouver Island 97 Fraser Valley/Rest of BC 166 Urban Atlantic Canada: Liberals down 6 points since 2015 election but 27 still maintain lead on Conservatives by 23 points QQ Decided Vote

Oct 15 - 17 2019 48% 25% 15% 11% 1% Seats Won Seats Won Polling Party 2015 2011* Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 36% 30% 13% 16% 5%0% Liberal 10 2

Sept 10 - 25 2019 CPC 0 3 Polling 48% 27% 10% 10% 6%0% June - Sept 2019 NDP 0 5 Polling 45% 29% 11% 8% 7%

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 51% 26% 14% 5%3%1%

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 50% 25% 10% 8% 4%2%

2015 Election Results 54% 16% 26% 4%0%

Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts Rural Atlantic Canada: Liberals are down 20 points since 2015 election 28 while Greens are up 9, but the LPC still maintains a lead in this region QQ Decided Vote

Oct 15 - 17 2019 41% 26% 15% 12% 6% Seats Won Seats Won Polling Party 2015 2011* Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 49% 28% 8% 12% 3%0% Liberal 22 9

Sept 10 - 25 2019 CPC 0 12 Polling 39% 33% 10% 12% 5%0% June - Sept 2019 NDP 0 1 Polling 41% 34% 9% 13% 3%

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 42% 27% 9% 16% 5%1%

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 40% 26% 11% 15% 8%

2015 Election Results 61% 21% 14% 3%1%

Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts Quebec City & Beauce Area: The Bloc continues to grow support and 29 have over doubled their vote share since 2015 in this area, now in lead QQ Decided Vote

Oct 15 - 17 2019 19% 28% 11% 3% 33% 6% Seats Won Seats Won Polling Party 2015 2011* Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 22% 32% 6% 11% 26% 4% Liberal 2 0

Sept 10 - 25 2019 CPC 11 4 Polling 25% 34% 5% 10% 18% 7%0% June - Sept 2019 NDP 0 8 Polling 22% 36% 7% 10% 16% 8% Bloc 0 1 Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 29% 28% 6% 15% 17% 4%1%

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 26% 36% 9% 5% 15% 6%

2015 Election Results 25% 39% 20% 2% 13% 0%

Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc People's Party Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts Rural Francophone Quebec: The Bloc pulls ahead of the Liberals by 13 30 points; up 15 points overall since 2015 election QQ Decided Vote

Oct 15 - 17 2019 25% 15% 10% 9% 38% 3% Seats Won Seats Won Polling Party 2015 2011* Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 31% 17% 11% 7% 31% 3%0% Liberal 12 0

Sept 10 - 25 2019 CPC 1 1 Polling 30% 20% 11% 11% 24% 4%0% June - Sept 2019 NDP 9 22 Polling 26% 21% 13% 13% 22% 4%0% Bloc 4 3 Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 32% 21% 10% 11% 20% 5%1%

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 25% 20% 17% 8% 23% 5%2%

2015 Election Results 33% 13% 28% 2% 23% 1%

Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc People's Party Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts Francophone Montreal/Suburbs: Like elsewhere in Quebec, Bloc pulls 31 ahead of Liberals with 5-point lead; NDP down 18 points since 2015 QQ Decided Vote

Oct 15 - 17 2019 34% 9% 10% 7% 39% 1% Seats Won Seats Won Polling Party 2015 2011* Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 32% 13% 7% 15% 31% 2% Liberal 9 0

Sept 10 - 25 2019 CPC 0 0 Polling 36% 18% 7% 10% 27% 2%0% June - Sept 2019 NDP 5 20 Polling 36% 17% 7% 13% 25% 2%0% Bloc 6 0 Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 34% 20% 8% 7% 25% 4%2%

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 28% 19% 17% 6% 27% 2%1%

2015 Election Results 32% 10% 28% 3% 27% 1%

Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc People's Party Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts Quebec Anglophone/Mixed: The Liberal lead in Anglophone Quebec is 32 now stronger than it was in 2015 QQ Decided Vote

Oct 15 - 17 2019 58% 9% 13% 5% 14% 1% Seats Won Seats Won Polling Party 2015 2011* Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 58% 12% 10% 5% 13% 2% Liberal 17 8

Sept 10 - 25 2019 CPC 0 0 Polling 49% 16% 9% 9% 12% 4%1% June - Sept 2019 NDP 2 11 Polling 51% 18% 7% 8% 13% 3%0% Bloc 0 0 Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 52% 17% 10% 6% 10% 5%0%

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 49% 16% 10% 7% 14% 3%0%

2015 Election Results 51% 14% 22% 2% 10%1%

Liberal Conservative NDP Green Bloc People's Party Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts Toronto: Liberals show similar level of support as in 2015; maintain a 33 strong lead over the Conservatives and NDP QQ Decided Vote

Oct 15 - 17 2019 50% 24% 18% 5%2% Seats Won Seats Won Polling Party 2015 2011* Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 44% 29% 19% 5%3% Liberal 25 8

Sept 10 - 25 2019 CPC 0 8 Polling 47% 26% 15% 8% 4%0% June - Sept 2019 NDP 0 9 Polling 48% 23% 15% 10% 4%0%

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 48% 27% 14% 7% 3%0%

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 51% 24% 16% 6%3%0%

2015 Election Results 52% 26% 19% 2%1%

Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts GTA Suburbs: Liberals back ahead of CPC with 8-point advantage while 34 NDP is up 6 points since 2015 election QQ Decided Vote

Oct 15 - 17 2019 42% 34% 16% 5%2% Seats Won Seats Won Polling Party 2015 2011* Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 39% 38% 11% 8% 3% Liberal 24 1

Sept 10 - 25 2019 CPC 5 27 Polling 39% 38% 12% 8% 3%0% June - Sept 2019 NDP 0 1 Polling 38% 37% 13% 8% 4%0%

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 43% 36% 10% 5% 4%1%

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 41% 40% 11% 3%5%

2015 Election Results 47% 40% 10% 2%0%

Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts South/West: The Conservatives and Liberals are neck-and-neck in these 35 ridings, with NDP gaining some support this wave but still a distant third QQ Decided Vote

Oct 15 - 17 2019 35% 33% 22% 7%2%1% Seats Won Seats Won Polling Party 2015 2011* Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 33% 36% 17% 11% 3%0% Liberal 11 1

Sept 10 - 25 2019 CPC 15 24 Polling 35% 32% 17% 11% 4%0% June - Sept 2019 NDP 6 7 Polling 37% 30% 17% 13% 2%0%

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 33% 39% 16% 10%2%1%

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 40% 37% 13% 8%2%0%

2015 Election Results 37% 37% 21% 3%1%

Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts North/East: The Liberal lead has narrowed slightly to around 6 points 36 over the Conservatives, Greens up 6 points since 2015 election QQ Decided Vote

Oct 15 - 17 2019 37% 31% 19% 10% 2%1% Seats Won Seats Won Polling Party 2015 2011* Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 41% 30% 14% 10% 4%1% Liberal 20 4

Sept 10 - 25 2019 CPC 13 24 Polling 37% 33% 13% 12% 5%0% June - Sept 2019 NDP 2 7 Polling 37% 32% 12% 13% 5%0%

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 39% 31% 12% 12% 6%0%

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 44% 35% 10% 8% 3%0%

2015 Election Results 45% 35% 16% 4%1%

Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts Saskatoon/Regina: While Conservative lead remains clear, Liberals and 37 NDP show uptick in most recent wave QQ Decided Vote

Oct 15 - 17 2019 25% 53% 17% 2%3% Seats Won Seats Won Polling Party 2015 2011* Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 16% 59% 10% 10% 3%2% Liberal 1 1

Sept 10 - 25 2019 CPC 3 3 Polling 30% 40% 20% 5%4%1% June - Sept 2019 NDP 2 2 Polling 26% 47% 21% 3%1%1%

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 36% 30% 23% 4%5%2%

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 25% 43% 19% 9% 2%1%

2015 Election Results 30% 38% 30% 2%0%

Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts Winnipeg: As Liberal lead slips away and NDP and Greens gain support, 38 Conservatives, Liberals, and NDP all neck-in-neck in Winnipeg seats QQ Decided Vote

Oct 15 - 17 2019 26% 27% 29% 16% 2% Seats Won Seats Won Polling Party 2015 2011* Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 40% 29% 21% 9%1%0% Liberal 7 0

Sept 10 - 25 2019 CPC 0 6 Polling 35% 32% 17% 13% 3%1% June - Sept 2019 NDP 1 2 Polling 37% 34% 16% 12% 2%

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 44% 32% 17% 4%4%0%

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 46% 29% 18% 3%4%

2015 Election Results 53% 30% 14% 3%0%

Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts Rest of Prairies: The Conservatives now lead over 2nd-place NDP by 38 39 points QQ Decided Vote

Oct 15 - 17 2019 15% 58% 20% 4%4% Seats Won Seats Won Polling Party 2015 2011* Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 18% 41% 22% 8% 11% Liberal 0 0

Sept 10 - 25 2019 CPC 12 13 Polling 19% 48% 12% 11% 9% 1% June - Sept 2019 NDP 2 1 Polling 23% 46% 10% 10% 8% 3%

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 12% 50% 14% 16% 5%3%

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 22% 44% 21% 6% 5%1%

2015 Election Results 25% 53% 17% 3%1%

Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts Edmonton: Liberals down 9 points since 2015 while Conservatives are 40 up 6; recent polling shows Conservative lead of 27 points QQ Decided Vote

Oct 15 - 17 2019 20% 48% 21% 6% 5% Seats Won Seats Won Polling Party 2015 2011* Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 33% 35% 21% 6% 4% Liberal 2 0

Sept 10 - 25 2019 CPC 5 7 Polling 30% 44% 17% 6%3% June - Sept 2019 NDP 1 1 Polling 21% 51% 19% 6%2%1%

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 28% 41% 21% 6%3%1%

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 32% 45% 14% 4%5%1%

2015 Election Results 29% 42% 22% 2%4%

Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts Calgary: The Conservatives are still ahead by more than 30 points in 41 Calgary, while the NDP is up 11 points since 2015 election QQ Decided Vote

Oct 15 - 17 2019 19% 53% 18% 5% 5% Seats Won Seats Won Polling Party 2015 2011* Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 24% 57% 13% 4%1% Liberal 2 0

Sept 10 - 25 2019 CPC 8 10 Polling 31% 50% 10% 5%4%0% June - Sept 2019 NDP 0 0 Polling 28% 55% 9% 2%5%0%

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 23% 55% 12% 5%4%0%

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 31% 52% 8% 4%4%1%

2015 Election Results 33% 56% 7%3%1%

Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts Rest of Alberta: Conservatives continue to lead in the Rest of Alberta 42 with 71% support, only 11% say they would vote Liberal and NDP QQ Decided Vote

Oct 15 - 17 2019 11% 71% 11% 4%3% Seats Won Seats Won Polling Party 2015 2011* Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 12% 72% 10% 2%4%0% Liberal 0 0

Sept 10 - 25 2019 CPC 16 16 Polling 9% 71% 9% 7% 4%0% June - Sept 2019 NDP 0 0 Polling 14% 65% 6% 6% 7%1%

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 14% 61% 11% 7% 5%2%

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 20% 60% 10% 6%4%1%

2015 Election Results 17% 70% 10% 3%1%

Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts City of Vancouver: In the City of Vancouver, Liberals (40%) lead by 9 43 points, ahead of the NDP at 31% while Greens drop down to 9% support QQ Decided Vote

Oct 15 - 17 2019 40% 19% 31% 9% 1% Seats Won Seats Won Polling Party 2015 2011* Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 36% 17% 25% 18% 5% Liberal 4 2

Sept 10 - 25 2019 CPC 0 2 Polling 35% 22% 23% 16% 3%1% June - Sept 2019 NDP 2 2 Polling 41% 25% 20% 12% 2%1%

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 37% 20% 26% 16% 1%0%

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 47% 17% 18% 16% 1%0%

2015 Election Results 44% 22% 28% 5%0%1%

Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts Vancouver Suburbs: Liberals and Conservatives neck-in-neck in 44 Vancouver suburbs; Greens up 10 points since 2015 election to 14% QQ Decided Vote

Oct 15 - 17 2019 32% 31% 22% 14% 1% Seats Won Seats Won Polling Party 2015 2011* Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 38% 35% 18% 8%1%0% Liberal 11 0

Sept 10 - 25 2019 CPC 2 12 Polling 33% 29% 21% 11% 5% June - Sept 2019 NDP 3 4 Polling 31% 27% 20% 15% 7%

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 29% 31% 21% 14% 4%0%

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 40% 29% 16% 11% 3%1%

2015 Election Results 43% 30% 22% 4%1%

Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts Vancouver Island: On Vancouver Island, the Conservatives pull ahead by45 3 points over the NDP; Greens down 10 points since last QQ Decided Vote

Oct 15 - 17 2019 24% 30% 27% 14% 3%1% Seats Won Seats Won Polling Party 2015 2011* Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 32% 15% 29% 23% 1%1% Liberal 0 0

Sept 10 - 25 2019 CPC 0 2 Polling 23% 28% 24% 21% 4% June - Sept 2019 NDP 6 4 Polling 25% 25% 24% 21% 5%1% Green 1 1 Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 27% 19% 26% 21% 7%0%

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 31% 23% 19% 24% 4%0%

2015 Election Results 21% 21% 33% 24% 0%

Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts Rest of BC/Fraser Valley: The Conservatives drop 5 points since most 46 recent poll, Liberals gain narrow lead over Conservatives by 4 points QQ Decided Vote

Oct 15 - 17 2019 32% 28% 21% 11% 7%1% Seats Won Seats Won Polling Party 2015 2011* Oct 3 - 10 2019 Polling 34% 33% 16% 14% 3% Liberal 1 0

Sept 10 - 25 2019 CPC 5 8 Polling 28% 43% 11% 15% 2% June - Sept 2019 NDP 3 1 Polling 30% 40% 12% 13% 3%1%

Apr - Mar 2019 Polling 29% 39% 12% 14% 3%2%

Nov 2018 - Jan 2019 Polling 30% 41% 14% 10% 3%2%

2015 Election Results 31% 39% 25% 4%1%

Liberal Conservative NDP Green People's Party Other

*2011 results were transposed from previous riding boundaries to the 338 current federal electoral districts Appendix: Seat Cluster Definitions 48

Defining the Seat Clusters

This section outlines the precise definition of each seat cluster and which federal electoral districts it contains.

For this analysis, we based the clusters on a few key definitions that are repeated throughout this section:

• Stronghold: A seat won by a party in both 2011 and 2015 by >10%

• Competitive: A seat won in either 2011 or 2015 by the party OR lost by an average of less than 10% across both elections (a seat can be competitive for multiple parties)

• Two-way races (e.g. LPC-CPC): Seats that are competitive for both listed parties, but for no other parties. • LPC-CPC note: These seats have a manual adjustment so that if the Liberals were competitive in 2015 but not 2011 they are still included.

Seats are assigned to clusters by a combination of the classifications above with regional breakdowns. Some special rules are used for Green Targets and 2015 3-way races and some manual adjustments are made to reflect special circumstances and are noted throughout. 49

Seat Cluster Distribution by Region

Ontario: Ontario: Vancouver Lower Rest of Edmonton Rest of Saskatoon Rest of Rest of Montreal: Montreal: Quebec Rest of Winnipeg Toronto South/ North/ Anglophone Francophone Atlantic Island Mainland BC /Calgary Alberta /Regina Prairies GTA City Area Quebec West East ridings ridings Strong CPC 1 1 13 15 3 12 2 7 5 6

Other LPC-CPC 4 5 5 1 1 2

LPC-CPC Atlantic 14

LPC-CPC Rest of Ontario 16 18

LPC-CPC Toronto & GTA 8 25

LPC-CPC Lower Mainland 11

2015 3-Way 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 3

Strong LPC 2 1 8 1 4 5 1 10

LPC-NDP Quebec 5 12 1 9

LPC-NDP RoC 2 2 1 9 1 1 4 6

NDP Strong/Swing QC 1 3 10

NDP Strong/Swing RoC 3 2 1 1 1 6 2

Green Target 7 3 1 1 1 2

BQ Competitive 6 1 11 50

Strong CPC

Includes CPC stronghold seats (won in both 2011 & 2015 by >10%) OR CPC-only competitive seats (won in either 2011/2015 or lost by an average of <10%, and competitive for no other parties). 3 decisive CPC wins in Quebec city from 2015 are added manually to this group even though they technically are classified as competitive for the NDP because based on their strength in 2011.

Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region Calgary Forest Lawn Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Abbotsford Lower mainland Beauce Quebec Quebec City Area Calgary Heritage Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Prince George--Peace Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis Quebec Quebec City Area Calgary Midnapore Alberta Edmonton/Calgary River--Northern Rockies British Columbia Rest of BC Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles Quebec Quebec City Area Calgary Nose Hill Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Brandon--Souris Manitoba Rest of prairies Lévis--Lotbinière Quebec Quebec City Area Calgary Rocky Ridge Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Dauphin--Swan River-- Louis-Saint-Laurent Quebec Quebec City Area Calgary Shepard Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Neepawa Manitoba Rest of prairies Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier Quebec Quebec City Area Calgary Signal Hill Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Portage--Lisgar Manitoba Rest of prairies Battlefords--Lloydminster Saskatchewan Rest of prairies Edmonton Griesbach Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Manitoba Rest of prairies Cypress Hills--Grasslands Saskatchewan Rest of prairies Edmonton Manning Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Selkirk--Interlake--EastmanManitoba Rest of prairies Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek Saskatchewan Rest of prairies Edmonton Riverbend Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Haliburton--Kawartha Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan Saskatchewan Rest of prairies Edmonton West Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Lakes--Brock Ontario Ontario: North/East Prince Albert Saskatchewan Rest of prairies St. Albert--Edmonton Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Lanark--Frontenac-- Souris--Moose Mountain Saskatchewan Rest of prairies Sherwood Park--Fort Kingston Ontario Ontario: North/East Yorkton--Melville Saskatchewan Rest of prairies Saskatchewan Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Renfrew--Nipissing-- Regina--Qu'appelle Saskatchewan Saskatoon/Regina Banff--Airdrie Alberta Rest of Alberta Pembroke Ontario Ontario: North/East Saskatoon--Grasswood Saskatchewan Saskatoon/Regina Battle River--Crowfoot Alberta Rest of Alberta Stormont--Dundas--South Saskatoon--University Saskatchewan Saskatoon/Regina Bow River Alberta Rest of Alberta Glengarry Ontario Ontario: North/East Edmonton--Wetaskiwin Alberta Rest of Alberta York--Simcoe Ontario Ontario: North/East Foothills Alberta Rest of Alberta Brantford--Brant Ontario Ontario: South/West Fort Mcmurray--Cold Lake Alberta Rest of Alberta Elgin--Middlesex--London Ontario Ontario: South/West Grande Prairie--Mackenzie Alberta Rest of Alberta Lambton--Kent--Middlesex Ontario Ontario: South/West Lakeland Alberta Rest of Alberta Ontario Ontario: South/West Lethbridge Alberta Rest of Alberta Oxford Ontario Ontario: South/West Medicine Hat--Cardston-- Sarnia--Lambton Ontario Ontario: South/West Warner Alberta Rest of Alberta Wellington--Halton Hills Ontario Ontario: South/West Peace River--Westlock Alberta Rest of Alberta Oshawa Ontario Rest of GTA Red Deer--Mountain View Alberta Rest of Alberta Thornhill Ontario Rest of GTA Red Deer--Lacombe Alberta Rest of Alberta Sturgeon River--Parkland Alberta Rest of Alberta Yellowhead Alberta Rest of Alberta 51

Strong LPC

Includes LPC stronghold seats (won in both 2011 & 2015 by >10%) OR LPC-only competitive seats (won in either 2011/2015 or lost by an average of <10%, and competitive for no other parties).

Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region British Columbia Lower mainland British Columbia Lower mainland Beauséjour New Brunswick Atlantic Bonavista--Burin--Trinity Newfoundland and Labrador Atlantic Coast Of Bays--Central--Notre Dame Newfoundland and Labrador Atlantic Long Range Mountains Newfoundland and Labrador Atlantic Cape Breton--Canso Nova Scotia Atlantic Halifax West Nova Scotia Atlantic Kings--Hants Nova Scotia Atlantic Sydney--Victoria Nova Scotia Atlantic Ontario Ontario: North/East Nipissing--Timiskaming Ontario Ontario: North/East Ontario Ontario: North/East Ottawa--Vanier Ontario Ontario: North/East Markham--Thornhill Ontario Rest of GTA Ontario Toronto Ontario Toronto Toronto--St. Paul's Ontario Toronto Scarborough--Agincourt Ontario Toronto Scarborough--Guildwood Ontario Toronto Scarborough--Rouge Park Ontario Toronto Ontario Toronto Humber River--Black Creek Ontario Toronto Cardigan Prince Edward Island Atlantic Charlottetown Prince Edward Island Atlantic Lac-Saint-Louis Quebec Montreal: Anglophone ridings Notre-Dame-De-Grâce--Westmount Quebec Montreal: Anglophone ridings Papineau Quebec Montreal: Anglophone ridings Saint-Laurent Quebec Montreal: Anglophone ridings Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel Quebec Montreal: Anglophone ridings Bourassa Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Regina--Wascana Saskatchewan Saskatoon/Regina 52

LPC-CPC GTA

Includes LPC-CPC seats (competitive for both the LPC and CPC, but no other parties) in the Greater Toronto Area.

Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region Ajax Ontario Rest of GTA Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill Ontario Rest of GTA Ontario Rest of GTA Ontario Rest of GTA Ontario Rest of GTA Ontario Rest of GTA Burlington Ontario Rest of GTA Durham Ontario Rest of GTA King--Vaughan Ontario Rest of GTA Markham--Stouffville Ontario Rest of GTA Markham--Unionville Ontario Rest of GTA Milton Ontario Rest of GTA Ontario Rest of GTA --Cooksville Ontario Rest of GTA Mississauga--Erin Mills Ontario Rest of GTA Mississauga--Lakeshore Ontario Rest of GTA Mississauga--Malton Ontario Rest of GTA Mississauga--Streetsville Ontario Rest of GTA Newmarket--Aurora Ontario Rest of GTA Oakville Ontario Rest of GTA Oakville North--Burlington Ontario Rest of GTA Pickering--Uxbridge Ontario Rest of GTA Richmond Hill Ontario Rest of GTA Vaughan--Woodbridge Ontario Rest of GTA Whitby Ontario Rest of GTA Ontario Toronto Ontario Toronto Eglinton--Lawrence Ontario Toronto Etobicoke Centre Ontario Toronto Etobicoke--Lakeshore Ontario Toronto Scarborough Centre Ontario Toronto Willowdale Ontario Toronto Ontario Toronto 53

LPC-CPC Rest of Ontario

Includes LPC-CPC seats (competitive for both the LPC and CPC, but no other parties) in the rest of Ontario.

Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region Barrie--Innisfil Ontario Ontario: North/East Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte Ontario Ontario: North/East Bay Of Quinte Ontario Ontario: North/East Dufferin--Caledon Ontario Ontario: North/East Glengarry--Prescott--Russell Ontario Ontario: North/East Hastings--Lennox And Addington Ontario Ontario: North/East Kanata--Carleton Ontario Ontario: North/East Leeds--Grenville--Thousand Islands And Rideau Lakes Ontario Ontario: North/East Nepean Ontario Ontario: North/East Northumberland--Peterborough South Ontario Ontario: North/East Orléans Ontario Ontario: North/East --Nepean Ontario Ontario: North/East Parry Sound--Muskoka Ontario Ontario: North/East Peterborough--Kawartha Ontario Ontario: North/East Carleton Ontario Ontario: North/East Sault Ste. Marie Ontario Ontario: North/East Simcoe--Grey Ontario Ontario: North/East Ontario Ontario: North/East Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound Ontario Ontario: South/West Cambridge Ontario Ontario: South/West Chatham-Kent--Leamington Ontario Ontario: South/West Flamborough--Glanbrook Ontario Ontario: South/West Haldimand--Norfolk Ontario Ontario: South/West Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas Ontario Ontario: South/West Huron--Bruce Ontario Ontario: South/West Ontario Ontario: South/West Kitchener--Conestoga Ontario Ontario: South/West Kitchener South--Hespeler Ontario Ontario: South/West Ontario Ontario: South/West Ontario Ontario: South/West Niagara Falls Ontario Ontario: South/West Perth--Wellington Ontario Ontario: South/West 54

LPC-CPC Lower Mainland

Includes LPC-CPC seats (competitive for both the LPC and CPC, but no other parties) in the Lower Mainland.

Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region Chilliwack--Hope British Columbia Lower mainland Cloverdale--Langley City British Columbia Lower mainland Delta British Columbia Lower mainland Fleetwood--Port Kells British Columbia Lower mainland Langley--Aldergrove British Columbia Lower mainland Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon British Columbia Lower mainland Richmond Centre British Columbia Lower mainland South Surrey--White Rock British Columbia Lower mainland Steveston--Richmond East British Columbia Lower mainland Vancouver Granville British Columbia Lower mainland British Columbia Lower mainland 55

LPC-CPC Atlantic Canada

Includes LPC-CPC seats (competitive for both the LPC and CPC, but no other parties) in Atlantic Canada.

Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region Fundy Royal New Brunswick Atlantic Madawaska--Restigouche New Brunswick Atlantic Miramichi--Grand Lake New Brunswick Atlantic Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe New Brunswick Atlantic New Brunswick Southwest New Brunswick Atlantic Saint John--Rothesay New Brunswick Atlantic Tobique--Mactaquac New Brunswick Atlantic Avalon Newfoundland and Labrador Atlantic Labrador Newfoundland and Labrador Atlantic Central Nova Nova Scotia Atlantic Cumberland--Colchester Nova Scotia Atlantic South Shore--St. Margarets Nova Scotia Atlantic West Nova Nova Scotia Atlantic Egmont Prince Edward Island Atlantic 56

Other LPC-CPC

Includes all other LPC-CPC seats (competitive for both the LPC and CPC, but no other parties). Three of these are in Quebec, five in rural BC, and eleven in the prairies/Alberta.

Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Calgary Confederation Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Calgary Skyview Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Edmonton Centre Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Edmonton Mill Woods Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Cariboo--Prince George British Columbia Rest of BC Central Okanagan--Similkameen--Nicola British Columbia Rest of BC Kelowna--Lake Country British Columbia Rest of BC North Okanagan--Shuswap British Columbia Rest of BC Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley Manitoba Winnipeg Kildonan--St. Paul Manitoba Winnipeg Saint Boniface--Saint Vital Manitoba Winnipeg Manitoba Winnipeg Manitoba Winnipeg Nunavut Nunavut Territories Mount Royal Quebec Montreal: Anglophone ridings Beauport--Côte-De-Beaupré--Île D’orléans--Charlevoix Quebec Quebec City Area Mégantic--L'érable Quebec Quebec City Area Yukon Yukon Territories 57

LPC-NDP Quebec

Includes LPC-NDP seats (competitive for both the LPC and CPC, but no other parties) in Quebec.

Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region Ahuntsic-Cartierville Quebec Montreal: Anglophone ridings Dorval--Lachine--Lasalle Quebec Montreal: Anglophone ridings Laval--Les Îles Quebec Montreal: Anglophone ridings Pierrefonds--Dollard Quebec Montreal: Anglophone ridings Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-Des-Soeurs Quebec Montreal: Anglophone ridings Alfred-Pellan Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Thérèse-De Blainville Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Brossard--Saint-Lambert Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Honoré-Mercier Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Hull--Aylmer Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings La Prairie Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Lasalle--Émard--Verdun Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Longueuil--Charles-Lemoyne Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Rivière-Des-Mille-Îles Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Marc-Aurèle-Fortin Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Vaudreuil--Soulanges Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Vimy Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Louis-Hébert Quebec Quebec City Area Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation Quebec Rest of Quebec Brome--Missisquoi Quebec Rest of Quebec Châteauguay--Lacolle Quebec Rest of Quebec Compton--Stanstead Quebec Rest of Quebec Gatineau Quebec Rest of Quebec Pontiac Quebec Rest of Quebec Saint-Jean Quebec Rest of Quebec Saint-Maurice--Champlain Quebec Rest of Quebec Shefford Quebec Rest of Quebec 58

LPC-NDP Rest of Canada

Includes LPC-NDP seats (competitive for both the LPC and CPC, but no other parties) in the rest of Canada.

Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region British Columbia Lower mainland Surrey--Newton British Columbia Lower mainland Winnipeg Centre Manitoba Winnipeg Manitoba Winnipeg Acadie--Bathurst New Brunswick Atlantic St. John's East Newfoundland and Labrador Atlantic St. John's South--Mount Pearl Newfoundland and Labrador Atlantic Northwest Territories Northwest Territories Territories Dartmouth--Cole Harbour Nova Scotia Atlantic Halifax Nova Scotia Atlantic Sackville--Preston--Chezzetcook Nova Scotia Atlantic Ontario Ontario: North/East Ontario Ontario: North/East Sudbury Ontario Ontario: North/East Thunder Bay--Rainy River Ontario Ontario: North/East Hamilton East--Stoney Creek Ontario Ontario: South/West Ontario Rest of GTA Beaches--East York Ontario Toronto Davenport Ontario Toronto Parkdale--High Park Ontario Toronto Scarborough North Ontario Toronto Ontario Toronto Spadina--Fort York Ontario Toronto Toronto--Danforth Ontario Toronto University--Rosedale Ontario Toronto --Weston Ontario Toronto 59

NDP Strong/Swing Quebec

Includes NDP stronghold seats (won in both 2011 & 2015 by >10%) or swing seats (competitive for the NDP, but potentially also other parties as well: won in either 2011/2015 or lost by an average of <10% across both elections) in Quebec. Excludes NDP-LPC races, which make up their own group.

Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region Outremont Quebec Montreal: Anglophone ridings Laurier--Sainte-Marie Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Longueuil--Saint-Hubert Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou Quebec Rest of Quebec Abitibi--Témiscamingue Quebec Rest of Quebec Berthier--Maskinongé Quebec Rest of Quebec Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques Quebec Rest of Quebec Drummond Quebec Rest of Quebec Jonquière Quebec Rest of Quebec Lac-Saint-Jean Quebec Rest of Quebec Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot Quebec Rest of Quebec Sherbrooke Quebec Rest of Quebec Trois-Rivières Quebec Rest of Quebec 60

NDP Strong/Swing Rest of Canada

Includes NDP stronghold seats (won in both 2011 & 2015 by >10%) or swing seats (competitive for the NDP, but potentially also other parties as well: won in either 2011/2015 or lost by an average of <10% across both elections) outside of Quebec. Excludes NDP-LPC races, which make up their own group. was added to this category manually based on the by-election result (based on the 2015 result it would be classified as a 3-way race).

Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region

Edmonton Strathcona Alberta Edmonton/Calgary Burnaby South British Columbia Lower mainland New Westminster--Burnaby British Columbia Lower mainland British Columbia Lower mainland Kootenay--Columbia British Columbia Rest of BC Skeena--Bulkley Valley British Columbia Rest of BC Churchill--Keewatinook Aski Manitoba Rest of prairies Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing Ontario Ontario: North/East Timmins--James Bay Ontario Ontario: North/East Essex Ontario Ontario: South/West Ontario Ontario: South/West Ontario Ontario: South/West London--Fanshawe Ontario Ontario: South/West Windsor--Tecumseh Ontario Ontario: South/West Ontario Ontario: South/West Saskatoon West Saskatchewan Saskatoon/Regina 61

BQ Competitive

Includes any seat marked as BQ competitive (won in either 2011/2015 or lost by an average of <10% across both elections) unless the seat is another party’s stronghold (won by a party in 2011 & 2015 by >10%) or a Green Target.

Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region Hochelaga Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings La Pointe-De-L'île Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Mirabel Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Montarville Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Repentigny Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Terrebonne Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings Richmond--Arthabaska Quebec Quebec City Area Avignon--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia Quebec Rest of Quebec Bécancour--Nicolet--Saurel Quebec Rest of Quebec Beloeil--Chambly Quebec Rest of Quebec Chicoutimi--Le Fjord Quebec Rest of Quebec Gaspésie--Les Îles-De-La-Madeleine Quebec Rest of Quebec Joliette Quebec Rest of Quebec Laurentides--Labelle Quebec Rest of Quebec Manicouagan Quebec Rest of Quebec Montcalm Quebec Rest of Quebec Rivière-Du-Nord Quebec Rest of Quebec Salaberry--Suroît Quebec Rest of Quebec 62

Green Target

Any seat where the greens got >=8% in 2015. Note that 7/15 of these seats are Vancouver Island.

Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region North Vancouver British Columbia Lower mainland Vancouver East British Columbia Lower mainland West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea To Sky Country British Columbia Lower mainland Courtenay--Alberni British Columbia Vancouver Island Cowichan--Malahat--Langford British Columbia Vancouver Island Nanaimo--Ladysmith British Columbia Vancouver Island Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke British Columbia Vancouver Island Saanich--Gulf Islands British Columbia Island--Powell River British Columbia Vancouver Island Victoria British Columbia Vancouver Island Fredericton New Brunswick Atlantic Thunder Bay--Superior North Ontario Ontario: North/East Guelph Ontario Ontario: South/West Malpeque Prince Edward Island Atlantic Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères Quebec Montreal: Francophone ridings 63

2015 3-way Races

Includes any seat where the CPC, NDP, and LPC were all within 10 points in 2015, so long as it is not also a green target or BQ competitive seat.

Federal Electoral District Province Sub-region Burnaby North--Seymour British Columbia Lower mainland Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam British Columbia Lower mainland Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge British Columbia Lower mainland Port Moody--Coquitlam British Columbia Lower mainland Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo British Columbia Rest of BC South Okanagan--West Kootenay British Columbia Rest of BC Elmwood--Transcona Manitoba Winnipeg Kenora Ontario Ontario: North/East Ontario Ontario: South/West Beauport--Limoilou Quebec Quebec City Area Montmagny--L’islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-Du-Loup Quebec Quebec City Area Québec Quebec Quebec City Area Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River Saskatchewan Rest of prairies Regina--Lewvan Saskatchewan Saskatoon/Regina Building Understanding. Personalized research to connect you and your audiences.

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