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Colorado Economic Chronicle Will Be Published Via the in Ternet Only Legislative Council Colorado Denver, Colorado Tom Dunn Economic Chief Economist Natalie Mullis Chronicle Economist Mike Mauer A Research Newsletter Economist No vem ber 10, 1999 Effective with the January 2000 issue, the Colorado Economic Chronicle will be published via the In ternet only. You can be notified when the latest Chronicle is available by sending your e-mail address to [email protected] with the message “Please notify me when the Chronicle is published.” Because the Chronicle is currently sent to you via bulk mail, you will receive the latest economic news on a more timely basis via the Internet publication of the Colorado Economic Chronicle. Na tional Econ omy F ueled by strong consumer spending, inflation- was 3.1% before the change, and 3.5% after the adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a change. As a result of this revision, second quarter robust pace of 4.8% during the third quarter of 1999, growth increased from 1.6% to 1.9%, first quarter the fastest growth since the fourth quarter of 1998, growth decreased from 4.3% to 3.7%, and 1998 when GDP surged 5.9%. Consumer spending grew growth increased from 3.9% to 4.3%. Second, 4.3% in the third quarter, slightly slower than its government employee retirement plans and gift/estate second quarter growth rate of 5.1%. Businesses taxes will now be counted as personal savings rather increased their inventories by $14.1 billion during the than government savings. Although GDP and national third quarter, helping fuel strong growth. Meanwhile, savings will be unchanged, the personal saving rate the burgeoning trade deficit continued to be a drag on will increase. The personal saving rate for 1998 growth; imports grew 17.2%, substantially outpacing a increased from 0.5% prior to these revisions to 3.7% strong growth rate of 12.7% in exports. after these revisions. Finally, the BEA changed the base year for prices from 1992 to 1996. ”. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a robust pace of 4.8% during the third quarter of “The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% in 1999, the fastest growth since the fourth October, the lowest level since January 1970.” quarter of 1998, when GDP surged 5.9%.” The consumer sector remains robust despite signs of The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised the cooling. Consumer spending grew 0.4% in way GDP is calculated in three ways. First, purchases September, slower than the 0.8% rise in August. of computer software by businesses or government Spending on nondurable goods rose 0.8% in will now be recognized as investment rather than an September, but was offset by a 0.4% decline in intermediate good. This change will increase real and spending on durable goods. Personal income was nominal GDP. The average annual growth rate of unchanged in September after rising 0.4% in August. GDP between 1991 and the second quarter of 1999 Meanwhile, the saving rate was 1.6% in September, The Leg is la tive Coun cil is the re search arm of the Colorado Gen eral As sem bly. The Coun cil pro vides non- partisan in for ma tion services and staff sup port to the Colo rado L eg is la ture. Rep re sen ta tive Rus sell George, Speaker of the House Sena tor Ray Powers, President of the Senat e Repre sen ta tive Doug Dean, Ma jor ity Leader of the House Sena tor Tom Blickensderfer, Major ity Leader of the Sen ate Repre sen ta tive Ken Gordon, Minor ity Leader of the House Sena tor Mi chael Feeley, Minor ity Leader of the Sen ate Char les Brown, Di rec tor of Leg is la tive Coun cil Staff down from 2.3% in August. Consumer confidence The construction sector registered mixed news in fell for the fourth month in a row in October, but September. Construction spending increased 0.5% in remains at a very high level historically. September, a result of a $5 billion jump in government projects that offset a decline in commercial The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1% in October, construction projects. The jump in government the lowest level since January 1970. The low construction spending was a result of school unemployment rate occurred despite a significant construction leading up to the school year and highway increase in the labor force; the share of the population and street development. Mortgage rates climbed to age 16 and older that is employed hit a near record above 8% in August, but had dropped back to 7.76% high of 64.2%. Payroll jobs increased by 310,000 in by the end of September. Meanwhile, new home sales October, substantially more than the weather-affected fell 12.8% in September, to the lowest level since September increase of 41,000. Regardless of tight December 1997, while existing home sales fell 2.1%. labor markets, wage pressures remained docile. The average price for a new home sold set a record at Average hourly wages rose by only one cent in $196,900 in September, up from $192,400 in August. October, while the employment cost index, a measure of U.S. wages, salaries, and benefits, increased 0.8% Inflation showed new signs of accelerating in in the third quarter of 1999, a lower rate than had been September. Consumer prices rose 0.4% in September, expected. The index rose 3.1% for the 12 months the biggest increase in five months. Prices have ending in September 1999, compared with a 3.7% increased at a 2.8% annual rate so far this year, increase in the previous 12 month period. The substantially higher than the 1.6% increase in 1998. employment cost index did show, however, that while The core consumer price index, which excludes food wage pressures are tame, benefit costs have been and energy prices, rose 0.3% in September, after growing. The index grew 1.1% in the second quarter. increasing 0.1% in August. Meanwhile, producer prices rose 1.1% in September, the biggest increase in nine years. This increase was caused by spikes in the “. the pace of job losses in manufacturing is slowing; manufacturing lost an average of 12,000 prices of cars and cigarettes; however, producer prices jobs each month thus far during the second half of declined 0.1% in October. Still, this represents a 2.9% 1999, compared with an average of 36,000 jobs per annual rate so far this year, compared to no change for month during the first half of 1999.” all of 1998. Much of the increase in 1999 is attributable to rising energy prices. The core producer The number of manufacturing jobs fell by 15,000 in price index rose 0.3% in October after climbing 0.8% October. Manufacturing was the hardest-hit sector in in September. late 1998 and early 1999 as a result of the global economic crisis, and despite increased activity “Prices have increased at a 2.8% annual throughout much of this year, the job losses continue. rate so far this year, substantially Nonetheless, the pace of job losses in manufacturing is higher than the 1.6% increase in 1998.” slowing; manufacturing lost an average of 12,000 jobs each month thus far during the second half of 1999, compared with an average of 36,000 jobs per month Overall, the national economy remained healthy during the first half of 1999. Furthermore, the through the third quarter of 1999, although signs of National Association of Purchasing Management cooling began to be more apparent. GDP surged in the reported a ninth consecutive month of expansion, third quarter as a result of strong consumer spending, although its index of business activity dropped from but there are signs that consumer spending may slow 57.8 in September to 56.6 in October. An index above in the future. The unemployment rate hit a 30-year 50 indicates an expanding industrial economy. low accompanied by minimal wage pressures, but Meanwhile, orders for durable goods fell 1.3% and consumer and producer prices are hinting at a slight factory orders fell 0.9% in September, after five acceleration. Meanwhile, the trade deficit remains at consecutive months of increases in both indicators. record levels, and home sales, housing starts, and The declines came as a result of weaker demand for commercial construction spending are slowing due to airplanes and cars. In addition, industrial output fell rising interest rates. 0.3% in September, after rising 0.4% in August. The decline was partially blamed on Hurricane Floyd. Legislative Council · 029 State Capitol Building · Denver, Colorado 80203-1784 · 303/866-4782 · November 1999 · Page 2 [email protected] · http://www.state.co.us/gov_dir/leg_dir/lcs/index.html Colo rado Econ omy Economic news released during October confirmed reopen early next year with 30 to 35 employees. On that the state’s economy continued to grow at a strong the negative side, Communications Systems pace during the first three quarters of 1999, continuing International eliminated over 50 positions in Colorado a decade-long boom. Several economic indicators Springs during the last year. show that the state’s robust growth may be moderating, however. Employment growth has slowed throughout the year and the manufacturing Residential Construction sector is expanding at a slower pace. On the positive side, the construction industry, which has led the Residential construction increased 13.9% through growth throughout the decade, continues to grow September, compared with the same period in 1998. significantly from already high levels.
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