11 20 2020 WOWS Listening In
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www.WellingonWallSt.com VOLUME 10 ISSUE 15 listeningin NOVEMBER 20, 2020 Bargain Hunting Isn’t Us INSIDE Polen Capital’s Big-Cap Mavens Talk Long-Term Compounding Magic Listening In Amid, dare I say, the Growing Client chaos of the last few Assets By Staying weeks — with the mar- Strictly In Quality kets tossed to and fro by Growth Stocks alternating news of stun- ning vaccine advances Guest Perspectives and heretofore unimagin- Dunne & Henwood able record numbers of Life Depends On It Covid-19 infections and John Hussman deaths all across this na- Pushing Extremes tion and the globe — not Dave Rosenberg to mention the sorry spec- Looking Across Gap tacle of an electorally de- Greg Swenson feated President trying to FAANGless Growth prolong his hold on the Gail Dudack White House by hook or Priced For Perfection by increasingly desperate crook, it seemed important Chart Sightings to find interviewees thor- Michael Belkin oughly grounded in incon- Dan Davidowitz Damon Ficklin Last Shall Be First trovertible fundamentals; Blaze Tankersley their process rooted in principles that have stood the test only the best quality growth stocks with, of all things, a A FortuneWaiting? of time — and who have delivered extraordinary invest- Thomas Peterson margin of safety. They were kind enough to fill me in on ment returns through some pretty horrible markets. all the details when we chatted last week. Listen in, and China Miners Crater Andrew Addison learn. Meet Dan Davidowitz and Damon Ficklin, who are pic- — KMW Fall Follow-Ups tured, shoulder-to-shoulder, above. The pair are the co- Deep Dives heads of the research efforts of Polen Capital’s Large How did a couple of evidently nice guys, like Save People First Company Growth Team. Dan is also the lead PM of you, end up in money management? Was it Ode to Comfy Cushion Polen’s Focus Growth strategy, while Damon handles something in your upbringing, perhaps? Pandemic Relief Impact that chore for its Global Growth strategy. Concentrated Poverty DAMON FICKLIN: [Laughter.] Deaths Of Despair DAN DAVIDOWITZ: I like that question as a start — Polen Capital, which now oversees $56-plus billion of Middle Class Angst AUM placed under its stewardship by institutions and Just saying, it’s always mom’s fault! Acute Observations individuals, is a Boca Raton, FL-based growth man- DAN: Well, my mom always wanted me to be a doc- Comic Skews ager that has been practicing and refining its highly tor, so apparently, I’m the one that did something Hot Links concentrated, quality growth investing methodology for wrong, not her. better than 30 years, with admirable results. In large ALL ON WEBSITE measure, they say, because they strictly insist on buying You still haven’t figured out what? RESEARCH SEE DISCLOSURES P. 20 -2 1 WELLINGONWALLST. November 20, 2020 PAGE 1 DAN: My career actually started out in health care, DAN: Well, I’m not a millennial, let’s just put it that so, I wasn’t far off from what my mother wanted me to way. In my case, a Value Line alum was Director of do, but on the finance side of it. I went to college in- Research at a Osprey Partners Investment Manage- Published exclusively tending to be a pre-med, but didn’t end up going that ment, a firm in New Jersey that was doing large- for professional and/or route, though I was a public health major. Now, it and small-cap value, long-only, equities, and he avid investors who are seems kind of funny, in the light of the Covid-19 hired me. Those were really my formative years, paid-up subscribers by pandemic, but I took only one epidemiology class. learning how to do research and understand busi- I’m not at all qualified to opine on anything Covid-19. nesses. I spent five years there before coming to Welling ON Wall St. LLC ISSN 2332-161X understand that their style, which is low p/e, low Would that many others were so punctilious! price-to-book and contrarian, wasn’t really resonat- DAN: Still, while studying public health, I did real- ing with me. I much prefer finding great companies ize that I liked the financial stuff. That’s how I that should compound earnings for long periods, Kathryn M. Welling ended up working at and decided to try to Editor, Publisher & Principal [email protected] Sloan Kettering Cancer concentrate on that. Office. (631)315-5076 Center for five years “We can’t stress Cell. (973)650-2722 after I graduated from And that’s when you Rutgers. Mostly in ana- enough that we found Polen Capital? lytical and finance-re- DAN: Right. I looked Donald R. Boyle lated jobs. But I also actually know what around to find firms that Chief Financial Officer went back to school at did that, and lo and be- Chief Marketing Officer night to get my MBA at has been driving our hold, Polen Capital was [email protected] City University of New one of them. I coinciden- Office. (631)315-5077 York’s Baruch College in outperformance — and tally had a friend who Cell. (201)394-1548 Manhattan. had just interviewed at it’s a very different Polen Capital at the As soon as I graduated, I time, who ended up not Distributed biweekly, mentality than waking usually on Fridays, decided I really wanted going through with the 16 times a year, by to pursue finance — it up on January 1 and whole interview process. Welling ON Wall St. LLC was during the dot.com But he told me, “This is PO Box 620 bubble in the late ‘90s a firm that you should be Mattituck, NY 11952 trying to pick what — exciting for the wrong looking at.” So I begged Office:(631)315-5076 reasons, right? stocks are going and pleaded and inter- Fax. (631)315-5077 viewed with Stan Moss, www.wellingonwallst.com Exactly. to rise the most who’s now our CEO, and DAN: But I didn’t have our founder, David the background to get a in the next 12 months. Polen, and lucky for me, Copyright Warning and Notice. job at any of the signifi- I ended up here. It is a violation of cant firms. Value Line This is a marathon, federal copyright law to repro- was the only place that I I took a bit of a circu- duce all or part of this publica- not a sprint” tion or its contents could get a job as a re- itous route, from Public by any means. The Copyright search analyst, basically, Health major, to hospital Act imposes liability of up to $150,000 per issue for but it was a great place administration, to a value such infringement. for me to learn how to do research. It was a place shop and finally to here, but thank goodness, I had Welling ON Wall St. LLC does not license or authorize where you learned to fly on your own, so to speak. those experiences and ended up in the right spot. redistribution in any form by They didn’t really have a lot of formal training. But clients or anyone else. Ho- that’s where I got very interested in understanding Does that also explain why I actually saw wever, clients may print one personal copy and limited re- businesses and really understanding what made the phrase “margin of safety’ in Polen’s print/republication permission them tick. And there’s a huge network of Value Line description of its growth strategy? may be made available, in writ- DAN: ing, upon specific request. alums out there, as you’d imagine, because turnover Yes, the value influence is really just under- is so high. standing the concept of margin of safety in invest- ing. We really look to have a margin of safety in the It was actually renowned as a training ground way that we invest in growth companies, and we’re Copyright 2020 in years gone by. I don’t know if it’s still — always looking for that. But our methodology is a K.M. Welling and DAN: I’m not as young as you’re implying. little bit different than just saying, “I know this Welling on Wall St. LLC All rights reserved and company is worth X, and I’m buying it at a discount vigorously enforced. That depends on your perspective. to X.” WELLINGONWALLST. November 20, 2020 PAGE 2 How so? DAN: That’s not the whole margin of safety for us. I mean, our margin of safety is really in the per- manence of a business, its compet- itive advantage, the strength of the balance sheet, its long-term earn- ings growth. It’s a little bit more robust, I think. But it does come out of the concept that Ben Gra- ham made famous. In The Intelli- gent Investor, he talks about margin of safety and growth stocks. There’s just a tiny little part of The Intelligent Investor about investing in growth stocks. But that’s what David Polen latched onto, and we’ve built our whole investment philosophy around it. It’s a very tiny part in a very weighty book — DAN: Yes, I had to read it a sec- We Have PROOF, by Pat Byrnes, Politi- ond time to find it. vesting. Plus, I was just always fascinated by the calCartoons.com miracle of compounding. I was a little bit of a Which may say a lot more about when he Warren Buffett junkie, even as a student — when I was writing that book than anything else.