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Northamptonshire COVID-19 Weekly Surveillance Report

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Northamptonshire COVID-19 Weekly Surveillance Report Northamptonshire COVID-19 Weekly Surveillance Report • 1,296 Northamptonshire residents have tested positive for COVID-19 in the last week – a small reduction on last week. • However cases locally remain higher than pre-lockdown levels. • The majority of transmission continues to be within and between households. Data up to 22 November 2020 1 National Restrictions Northamptonshire residents must follow new National guidance until midnight on 1 December. Key guidance includes: • Only leave home for food, medical reasons, exercise, education or work (if you cannot work from home) • You MUST work from home if you can • Avoid travel unless essential • Schools and essential shops to remain open • Remember: Wash hands, cover face, make space For a full list of what you can and cannot do, please visit: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/new-national-restrictions-from- 5-november For local guidance and FAQs, visit: https://www.northamptonshire.gov.uk/coronavirus- updates/Pages/coronavirus-advice-and-faqs.aspx 2 Your Actions Make a Difference! 1. We are still in lockdown until midnight on 1 December. When lockdown ends Northamptonshire will be in Tier 2 which is officially high on the three tier alert system and our position remains precarious. Lockdown restrictions may start to ease regarding certain activities but now more than ever; just because we can do something doesn’t mean we should. We must not be COVID-complacent and it is paramount that we continue to take measures to ensure ourselves and our loved ones are protected from the virus. If we all work together on this we can exit to a lower tier with all the benefits that brings. 2. Book your flu jabs now. We are urging all pregnant women and those with long term conditions to have the flu jab as soon as possible. We want to protect our NHS services at this critical time by ensuring all eligible residents are protected against the flu before we can roll out the flu jab to the over 50s (an additional group this year) and effectively implement a robust and effective COVID-19 vaccination programme. 3. If you can’t minimise your contact with the over 60s, due to caring or childcare responsibilities, then you must minimise your contact elsewhere. We urgently need to reduce coronavirus transmission to older age groups who have greater risk of severe illness and hospital admission. Bed capacity at our hospitals is already continuing to rise. At the moment non urgent and elective surgeries are continuing but if this trend continues they will have to stop. We are therefore asking our older residents to remain alert and to reduce their contact with others wherever possible. 3 Total and Weekly Summary A total of 13,594 positive cases have been identified in Northamptonshire to date. Of this number, 1,296 were identified in the last week, 16 to 22 November 2020. This graph shows the total number of people who have tested positive for COVID-19 in Northamptonshire each week since 31st August 2020. There has been an overall increasing trend over the last two months with cases rising significantly since the end of September. The number of cases in the last week have decreased compared to the previous two weeks, however case volumes remain high and there were more than twice as many cases in the last week compared to the first week of October. Average daily case figures are almost as high as the weekly totals seen during September. The latest week’s figures are likely to increase further as data for the most recent days are subject to reporting delays. * Please note that Public Health England have recently updated their methodology to link cases to the address entered at the point of ordering the test rather than patient GP registered addresses. Data has been amended retrospectively, therefore historic figures may not match previous weeks’ reports. 4 Recent Cases by Age and Gender This graph shows the number of positive test results for COVID-19 in Northamptonshire over the last 28 days by gender and by ten-year age band. Overall, more women than men tested positive for COVID- 19 in the last 28 days. The age groups with the most positive tests in males were 50 to 59 year olds, and in females they were 40 to 49 year olds. Case numbers are currently highest amongst working age adults. Cases are continuing to increase in the over 60s. This is of particular concern as these age groups tend to be at greater risk of more severe disease and observed hospital admission. 5 Total Cases by District and Borough Cases in week This table shows the total number of people who Total cases to Change from Area 16 Nov to 22 have tested positive for COVID-19 up to 22 22 Nov 2020 previous week Nov 2020 November 2020 in each of Northamptonshire’s seven districts and boroughs. Northamptonshire 13,594 1,296 Northamptonshire and all districts and boroughs Corby 1156 118 have seen a decrease in cases compared to the Daventry 1205 102 previous week. However, Northamptonshire’s total cases in the last week are over 6 times East Northamptonshire 1532 118 higher than the weekly average seen between 31 Kettering 1761 143 August and 27 September. Northampton 5,243 505 Please note that extreme caution must be applied South Northamptonshire 1392 191 when viewing week on week changes. To see the Wellingborough 1305 119 overall changes in areas in context please see slides 11, 12 and 13. 6 Rate of Weekly Lab Confirmed Cases This graph includes all testing data. It shows that Northamptonshire’s rate of cases in the last seven days is below the England average, however the gap between Northamptonshire average and England average is narrower than it was in October. With the exception of Northampton and South Northamptonshire, all districts and boroughs have weekly total rates below the England average. Case rates are currently on a decreasing trend in all districts and boroughs except for Corby and Wellingborough, where rates have increased in recent days. Northampton currently has the highest weekly rate of cases in the county, followed closely by South Northamptonshire. * These are 7-day rolling total numbers of cases as a rate per 100,000 population – this is done to even out the fluctuations we see in testing volumes on weekdays vs weekends. Source: coronavirus.data.gov.uk. 7 Rate of Weekly Lab Confirmed Cases in Ages 60+ This graph includes testing data for people aged 60+. It shows that the rate of confirmed cases for people aged 60+ in Northamptonshire has increased since the end of October. Corby has seen a significant increase in its case rate in ages 60+ over the last two weeks and currently has the highest rate in the county by a large margin. There has also been an increase in case rate in ages 60+ in South Northamptonshire, which is now the second highest in the county. * These are 7-day rolling total numbers of cases as a rate per 100,000 population – this is done to even out the fluctuations we see in testing volumes on weekdays vs weekends. 8 Rates of Cases by District and Borough Rate per Compared to Compared to The data in this table shows us what the total and Cumulative rate 100,000 13 county rate 13 England rate 13 most recent week’s positive COVID-19 case numbers Area per 100,000 to Nov to 19 Nov Nov to 19 Nov Nov to 19 Nov 19 Nov 2020 for our districts and boroughs would look like if each 2020 2020 2020 area had the exact same population size (100,000). Northamptonshire 1,746 185.7 - Sig lower This helps us to compare geographic areas with Corby 1,562 181.4 Similar Sig lower different sized populations more accurately. Daventry 1,347 124.5 Sig lower Sig lower With the exception of Northampton and South East Northamptonshire 1,564 123.8 Sig lower Sig lower Northamptonshire, district and borough infection Kettering 1,687 162.1 Similar Sig lower rates per 100,000 population for the most recent week are significantly lower when compared to the Northampton 2,261 233.3 Sig higher Similar national average. However the rates for all districts South Northamptonshire 1,395 230.7 Sig higher Similar and boroughs are above 100 cases per 100,000 population as a weekly average. Wellingborough 1,597 171.9 Similar Sig lower Source: coronavirus.data.gov.uk Overall, Northamptonshire’s rate of cases in the most recent week is significantly lower than the *Please note that the word sig means ‘significant’ is a statistical term which simply means that England average, but this is due to a significant the research is valid. increase in the England rate and therefore must be viewed in this context. 9 Education Status These charts show recent trends in the percentage of schools open, children attending and COVID-19 related absences in both staff and pupils in Northamptonshire. The vast majority of schools have been open or partially open over the last three weeks however attendance levels have been on a downward trend since the beginning of November. COVID-19 related absences amongst both staff and pupils have been increasing since the beginning of November. During the last week, nearly 1 in 10 pupils have been absent for COVID- 19 related reasons. Details around outbreaks and exposures in education settings by district can be found on slide 14. The University of Northampton reported 5 cases in the week 16-22 November. 10 Cases by Community – Last 28 Days The chart shows the local communities within Northamptonshire where COVID-19 infections over the last 28 days are highest.
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