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Industry Outlook: Online Grocery a Report by Sellwin Consulting May 2021 Industry Outlook: Online Grocery

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Industry Outlook: Online Grocery a Report by Sellwin Consulting May 2021 Industry Outlook: Online Grocery Industry Outlook: Online Grocery A report by Sellwin Consulting May 2021 Industry Outlook: Online Grocery 1. A Look at the Landscape 2. Industry Winners 3. Retailers and Trends to Watch 01 A Look at the Landscape U.S. shoppers learned new behaviors during the pandemic US Grocery Ecommerce Sales, 2019-2024 Online grocery sales grew 54% in 2020 as billions and % total ecommerce sales consumers gravitated to the convenience and $200.0 30.0% $187.7 safety of online ordering. $180.0 28.0% 43% of consumers tried curbside pickup for the $159.3 26.0% $160.0 first time, highlighting the evolving role of brick- $135.2 24.0% and-mortar stores in the omnichannel approach $140.0 to commerce. 22.0% $120.0 $112.9 20.0% As consumers continue shopping for groceries $100.0 $95.8 18.0% online, brands are scrambling to reprioritize $80.0 channel strategies into digital stores and $62.2 16.0% marketplaces. With online grocery projected to $60.0 14.0% be over $187B by 2024, investment in 13.9% $40.0 13.4% 12.9% 12.0% advertising is essential to stand out among 12.0% 12.4% competitors. $20.0 10.0% 10.4% $- 8.0% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Grocery ecommerce sales % of ttl ecommerce sales Sources: eMarketer, March 2021; CommerceNext and CassarCo Strategy and Analytics, July 2020 Half of shoppers are likely to continue online grocery shopping, especially Gen Z, Millennials, and Gen X How likely are you to purchase at least some groceries online post-pandemic? Very Likely Somewhat likely Not very likely Not at all likely Silent 12% 18% 22% 49% Boomers 17% 19% 20% 44% Gen X 25% 28% 24% 23% Milennials 38% 33% 14% 15% Gen Z 19% 36% 29% 16% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Source: Morning Brew – Harris Poll, March 2021 A customer-centric approach is essential • Omnichannel Strategy: Retailers and brands must cater to omnichannel with both retail operations and advertising to ensure that customers have every purchasing option available. • Reduce Friction: Out-of-stock notices, high service fees, and long delivery times can tarnish a customer’s experience and dissuade them from using online services in the future. The ultimate challenge: supply chain operations There’s no leniency now that 2-day shipping has become a standard in American homes. Customers want groceries immediately within short delivery ranges, putting a strain on supply chains that were not prepared for speedy last-mile delivery. The pandemic proved that customers shift loyalty from trusted retailers with lagging delivery times or stock issues and move to new providers who can fulfill their needs. Traditional grocery already has challenges that comes with the business: low profit margins, antiquated technologies across retailers and brands, data transparency from in-store to online, and storage. The last-mile hurdle for online businesses is an added obstacle. Back-end operations are evolving to combat last-mile challenges: ▪ Investment in just-in-time data tools to meet customer demand ▪ Robotic solutions embedded within store operations (replacing store shoppers) ▪ Multiple fulfillment and warehousing solutions to meet omnichannel needs: • Click and collect • Dark warehouses • Micro Fulfillment Centers (MFC) • Automated Fulfillment Centers (AFC) DTC brands have an additional problem to solve: cold storage National brands in grocery chains have an advantage of relying on the grocer’s store or warehousing as local storage and fulfillment options. For smaller brands and start-ups though, relying on third- party logistics providers (3PLs) who excel in grocery cold storage is a great option. DTCs often have smaller initial storage quantities and unpredictable demand compared to established brands, which makes the search for a 3PL difficult. DTC brands must consider the following when choosing the right 3PL: - Established ecommerce storage and distribution (ability to store single unit SKUs vs. pallets and cases) - Regulatory compliance for cold storage, meeting retailer requirements - Advanced data and technological capabilities 02 Industry Winners Marketers must focus digital strategies on retailers and marketplaces with growing media portfolios, powered with grocery-centric data. Instacart Walmart Amazon Projected Ecommerce Channel Ad Ecommerce ad spend is projected to Spend $50.0 20.0% $46.0 be $23.9B by end of 2021, and $45.0 $41.3 Instacart, Walmart, and Amazon are $40.0 $36.4 quickly adapting to capture grocery $35.0 $30.2 $30.0 audiences and ad dollars. $25.0 $23.9 15.1% 14.8% $20.0 $18.7 14.6% Here’s what you should know about each of the 13.7% $15.0 industry winners and how marketers can help clients $10.0 12.5% with their digital grocery strategy. 12.3% $5.0 $0.0 10.0% 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Ecommerce channel ad spending % of digital ad spending Sources: eMarketer, March 2021 Instacart Over 500M products and 600 retailers are listed on Instacart, covering 8% of all US online consumer goods. One game changer for Instacart is alcohol delivery operating in 24 states and counting; a booming and seemingly pandemic-proof business that Walmart and Amazon have yet to crack within their own platforms. Instacart has also developed two revenue-generating streams: Instacart Express and self-service advertising (launched May 2020). Instacart Express is the annual membership solution for customers ($99 annually for $9.99/monthly) and offers many benefits including reduced or no fees on delivery, service and peak hour pricing. While Instacart does not release the number of subscribers to this program, this membership will be powerful and loyal audience for advertisers on the platform. Sources: Jungletopp.com, August 2020; Instacart, March 2021 Instacart Media Portfolio The platform is a second-price auction system; Featured Products is keyword-based and exact match only. Featured Products Delivery Promotions Coupons Hero Banner Email 14 On Site Off Site What to watch for Instacart in 2021 Aspirational mid-to-upper funnel activations: The company is quickly broadening its media portfolio beyond standard commerce advertising, eyeing video, OTT and more. Marketers must react quickly as ad products come to market. Hot stock: Instacart was slated to IPO early 2020, but with new VC funding, may pursue a direct listing instead later this year Expansion outside of grocery: Partnerships with Sephora, Best Buy, and more recently Michaels allow Instacart to expand its regional footprint and product portfolio Customer Loyalty: Instacart is quietly building up its Express membership program, creating long-term recurring revenue and a platform-loyal audience Walmart It made headlines last summer when news broke that Walmart had officially surpassed Amazon as the top online grocer (although Amazon disputed that study data). Walmart’s grocery business had two main leads going into the pandemic: 1. Combining Walmart Grocery and the Walmart ecommerce app under one experience 2. Adjusting 3600 stores and growing to allow click-and collect capabilities (out of 4748 TTL US stores) Walmart is increasingly pushing an omnichannel approach (even launching its own loyalty program in 2020, Walmart+), which creates an interesting advantage for brands, advertisers, and ultimately customers. Stores were recently redesigned with an ecommerce mindset and now allow customers to easily navigate through aisles with bold typeface signage, self-checkout kiosks, and contactless payment solutions such as Walmart Pay. Source: Grocery Dive, August 2020Walmart overtakes Amazon as No. 1…”, Aug 2020 Walmart Media Portfolio Walmart uses a first-price bid auction for keywords, with min and max bid levels on manual and automatic campaigns: On Site Sponsored Products: Search In-Grid, Brand Amplifier, Product Carousel, Buy Box Display: Walmart.com, Pick-up and delivery, Walmart apps Off-Site Display: Web, Social Media What to watch for Walmart in 2021 In-store experience: Walmart is testing ghost kitchens across Canada and offering pick-up and delivery services of meals through delivery partners like Uber Eats Addition of micro-fulfillment centers: These automated fulfillment centers will include technology from various partners such as Fabric, Dematic, and Alert innovation, focusing on automation and pick retrieval Beyond commerce: With additions into health insurance and fintech, Walmart is rolling out much-needed services for its customers beyond traditional retail The Trade Desk: Walmart partnering with TTD and rebranding of its media group to Walmart Connect show intent to be one of the largest ad platforms in the US, connecting a massive retail audience to advertisers Amazon Amazon had a confusing start to grocery, but after acquiring Whole Foods and simplifying its services, the company is now a true competitor in the vertical. Customers are noticing too; in the dunnhumby Retailer Performance Index, Amazon came out as #1 for the top US grocery retailer in 2021 in terms of perception, fueled by strong COVID-19 performance and momentum. The foray into physical grocery is interesting. Amazon Fresh products and stores are much more competitive in price with mass grocers (vs. Whole Foods) and are built to accommodate online shopping with designated order pickup and staging areas. Ways to shop groceries through Amazon: • Fresh and Whole Foods online, Prime Now - availability is regional and for Prime members only • Amazon.com – non-perishables and household items • Physical stores – Fresh (11 stores and growing) and Go Grocery (28 stores + compact convenience), Whole Foods (500 stores) Amazon Media Portfolio The platform is a second-price auction system; bidding includes exact and broad match types. Understanding product PPM (pure product margin) will be key for margin-sensitive grocery products as advertisers launch campaigns. On Site Off-Site Sponsored Products for Amazon Fresh Fire Devices: OTT & Tablet DSP: Display & Video Advertising DSP: Amazon Publisher Services (APS) & Third-Party Exchanges Custom Display & Share-of-Voice Takeovers Audio / Voice Physical Grocery Custom Solutions & OOH Amazon Live cooking shows What to watch for Amazon in 2021 Real Estate- Amazon plans to open at least 84 Fresh stores and new 140K sq.
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