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Economic and Fiscal Snapshot 2020

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Economic and Fiscal Snapshot 2020 Economic and Fiscal Snapshot 2020 Economic and Fiscal Snapshot 2020 ©Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada (2020) All rights reserved All requests for permission to reproduce this document or any part there of shall be addressed to the Department of Finance Canada. This document is available on the Internet at www.canada.ca/en/department-finance.html Cette publication est également disponible en français. Cat No.: F2-277/2020E-PDF ISSN: 978-0-660-35439-2 Table of content INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................. 5 Safe Restart: Protecting the Health of Canadians ........................................................................................................................ 8 Building a Bridge for Canadians ...................................................................................................................................................... 10 Chapter 1 - OVERVIEW OF CANADA’S COVID-19 ECONOMIC RESPONSE PLAN .......................... 13 A Responsive Plan ................................................................................................................................................................................. 13 A Decisive and Rapid Response ....................................................................................................................................................... 14 Protecting the Health of Canadians ............................................................................................................................................... 15 Protecting Jobs ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 16 Supporting Individuals and Families .............................................................................................................................................. 17 Supporting Seniors ............................................................................................................................................................................... 19 Supporting Vulnerable Canadians .................................................................................................................................................. 20 Supporting Indigenous Communities ........................................................................................................................................... 21 Delivering Immediate Income Support ......................................................................................................................................... 22 Building a Bridge for Businesses ...................................................................................................................................................... 26 Working Together with Provinces and Territories .................................................................................................................... 32 A World-class Response...................................................................................................................................................................... 33 An International Effort ......................................................................................................................................................................... 34 Next Steps ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 35 GBA+ Summary of Canada’s COVID-19 Economic Response Plan .................................................................................. 37 Chapter 2 - ECONOMIC AND FISCAL PROFILE .............................................................................. 51 COVID-19 in Canada ............................................................................................................................................................................ 51 Economic Situation ............................................................................................................................................................................... 57 Economic Developments and Prospects ...................................................................................................................................... 60 Canadian Economic Outlook ............................................................................................................................................................. 73 Fiscal Situation ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 76 Annex 1 - GBA+ SUMMARY FOR CANADA’S COVID-19 ECONOMIC RESPONSE PLAN ................. 83 Annex 2 - DETAILS OF ECONOMIC AND FISCAL PROJECTIONS ................................................. 117 Economic Projections ......................................................................................................................................................................... 117 Fiscal Projections .................................................................................................................................................................................. 121 Annex 3 - DEBT MANAGEMENT STRATEGY FOR 2020-21 ........................................................... 155 Canada’s Debt in Context ................................................................................................................................................................. 155 Objectives ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 157 Outlook for Government of Canada Debt ................................................................................................................................. 157 Highlights of the Government of Canada’s Debt Management Strategy 2020-21 ................................................... 158 Debt Structure Planning .................................................................................................................................................................... 159 Borrowing Authority ........................................................................................................................................................................... 160 Planned Borrowing Activities for 2020-21 ................................................................................................................................. 160 Economic and Fiscal Snapshot 2020 3 INTRODUCTION In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on the health and economic well-being of people around the world. A sudden worldwide wave of lockdown measures, based on the guidance of public health officials, were put in place to contain the virus and save lives. In Canada, the first case of COVID-19 was confirmed in late January. On March 11, the World Health Organization declared the global outbreak of COVID-19 a pandemic. Globally, over 11 million cases of COVID-19 have since been reported. In Canada, the virus has resulted in just over 100,000 reported cases. Public health measures to combat the spread of COVID-19 across the country are flattening the curve and slowing the spread of new cases. Chart 1 Rate of Transmission, since the start of the pandemic Effective Reproduction Number - Rt 5 4 3 2 1 0 March April May June Note: Last data point is June 30. Source: Health Canada. The toll of COVID-19 on the global economy is expected to be the largest and most sudden contraction since the Great Depression. Global supply chains have been disrupted, trade has slowed and a huge share of economic activity was halted during lockdowns. Here at home, public health measures meant that schools closed, businesses shut their doors and Canadians stayed home. The economic impacts of COVID-19 were compounded by the shock to commodity prices in the early spring. Millions of Canadians lost their jobs and businesses faced uncertainty like never before. The COVID-19 crisis is the challenge of our generation. The Government of Canada is fulfilling its role to stabilize the economy and has responded with rapid and broad-based emergency support measures aimed at protecting the health of Canadians and providing a safety net to support families, workers and businesses across the country. The decisive and substantial support provided by the government helped prevent further damage to the economy by replacing lost income and avoiding even higher unemployment. Economic and Fiscal Snapshot 2020 5 Chart 2 Impact of Direct Support Measures on Real GDP Growth and Unemployment Rate for 2020 per cent 15 With support measures Without support measures 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 Real GDP growth Unemployment rate Sources: Department of Finance Canada calculations based on the May 2020 survey of private sector economists This is both important in the short-term for preventing a larger drop in economic activity than would have otherwise been the case, as well as the long-term, for avoiding prolonged social and economic costs from delayed rehiring and reduced consumption. For example, the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy has been able
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