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Stantec Consulting Ltd Stantec Consulting Ltd. Owner’s Engineer 100-75 24th Street East, Highway 5, Highway 6/39, Saskatoon SK S7K 0K3 Highway 9 and Highway 10 Attention: Charlotte Brockman March 8, 2019 Saskatchewan Ministry of Highways and Infrastructure Unit 18 – 3603 Millar Avenue Saskatoon, SK S7P 0B2 File: 111000236 Reference: Owner’s Engineer Services for Highway 6/39 Corridor Improvements –Climate Change Assessment Report Hi Charlotte, Attached please find a finalized version of the Climate Change Assessment report for Highway 6/39. We would be happy to discuss this further with you. Stantec Consulting Ltd. Tom Mercer M.Eng., P.Eng. Project Director Phone: (306) 667-2453 Email: [email protected] Attachment: Highway 6 and 39 Climate Change Assessment Final Report Saskatchewan Ministry of Highways & Infrastructure Recommendation & Approval: Approved by: Charlotte Brockman, P.Eng., PMP Date Senior Project Manager Saskatchewan Ministry of Highways and Infrastructure Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Highway 6 and Highway 39 Corridor Improvements March 8, 2019 Prepared for: Saskatchewan Ministry of Highways and Infrastructure Prepared by: Stantec Consulting Ltd. Sign-off Sheet This document entitled Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessment was prepared by Stantec Consulting Ltd. (“Stantec”) for the account of the Saskatchewan Ministry of Highways and Infrastructure (the “Client”). Any reliance on this document by any third party is strictly prohibited. The material in it reflects Stantec’s professional judgment in light of the scope, schedule and other limitations stated in the document and in the contract between Stantec and the Client. The opinions in the document are based on conditions and information existing at the time the document was published and do not take into account any subsequent changes. In preparing the document, Stantec did not verify information supplied to it by others. Any use which a third party makes of this document is the responsibility of such third party. Such third party agrees that Stantec shall not be responsible for costs or damages of any kind, if any, suffered by it or any other third party as a result of decisions made or actions taken based on this document. Prepared by Jordan Stewart, P.Eng. Reviewed by _______________________ _____________________ Tom Mercer, M.Eng., P.Eng. Approved by ____________________________________________ Guy Felio, PhD, P.Eng., FCSCE, IRP (Climate) Table of Highway 6 and Highway 39 Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Contents 1.0 INTRODUCTION ..........................................................................................................1.1 1.1 BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................1.1 1.2 HIGHWAY 6 AND HIGHWAY 39 PROFILE ..................................................................1.2 1.3 PROJECT OUTLINE ....................................................................................................1.4 1.3.1 Scope of the Study ...................................................................................... 1.4 1.3.2 Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Team ......................... 1.5 1.3.3 Timeline ...................................................................................................... 1.6 1.3.4 Study Limitations ......................................................................................... 1.7 1.4 THE PIEVC PROTOCOL..............................................................................................1.7 1.4.1 Step 1 – Project Definition ........................................................................... 1.8 1.4.2 Step 2 – Data Gathering and Sufficiency ..................................................... 1.9 1.4.3 Step 3 – Vulnerability and Risk Assessment ............................................. 1.10 1.4.4 Step 4 – Engineering Analysis – Optional ................................................. 1.10 1.4.5 Step 5 – Conclusions and Recommendations ........................................... 1.10 1.4.6 Steps 6 to 8 – Triple Bottom Line Module .................................................. 1.11 2.0 PROJECT DEFINITION AND DATA GATHERING – STEP 1 AND STEP 2 ................ 2.1 2.1 INVENTORY OF INFRASTRUCTURE COMPONENTS ...............................................2.2 2.2 CONDITION OF INFRASTRUCTURE COMPONENTS ................................................2.3 2.3 CLIMATE RELATED CONCERNS ...............................................................................2.4 2.4 TIME HORIZON FOR THE STUDY ..............................................................................2.7 2.5 DATA SUFFICIENCY ...................................................................................................2.8 3.0 CLIMATE CONSIDERATIONS ....................................................................................3.1 3.1 GENERAL OVERVIEW ................................................................................................3.1 3.2 SOURCES OF INFORMATION ....................................................................................3.2 3.3 CLIMATE EVENTS.......................................................................................................3.3 3.3.1 Climate Trends and Future Climate Projections .......................................... 3.3 3.3.2 Temperature ............................................................................................... 3.3 3.3.3 Maximum Temperature ............................................................................... 3.6 3.3.4 Precipitation ................................................................................................ 3.7 3.3.5 Freezing Rain ............................................................................................ 3.10 3.3.6 Drought ..................................................................................................... 3.11 3.3.7 Flood ......................................................................................................... 3.11 3.3.8 Climate Parameters Selected for the Risk Assessment ............................. 3.12 4.0 VULNERABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT – STEP 3 .............................................4.1 4.1 RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS .................................................................................4.1 4.2 RISK THRESHOLDS ....................................................................................................4.1 4.3 INFRASTRUCTURE RESPONSE ................................................................................4.2 4.4 CLIMATE PROBABILITY SCORING ............................................................................4.2 4.5 INFRASTRUCTURE SEVERITY SCORING ................................................................. 4.5 4.6 RISK ASSESSMENT ....................................................................................................4.5 4.6.1 Infrastructure Components Evaluated ......................................................... 4.5 4.6.2 Risk Screening Process .............................................................................. 4.6 4.6.3 Summary of Risk Results ............................................................................ 4.6 Table of Highway 6 and Highway 39 Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Contents 5.0 POTENTIAL MITIGATION STRATEGIES ....................................................................5.1 6.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................6.1 7.0 REFERENCES .............................................................................................................7.1 LIST OF TABLES Table 1-1: Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Team .....................................1.6 Table 3-1: Average Change in Mean Temperature from Baseline ............................................3.3 Table 3-2: Average Change in Maximum Daily Temperature from Baseline ............................. 3.6 Table 3-3: Average Percent Change in Total Precipitation from Baseline................................. 3.7 Table 3-4: Historical (Weyburn; Station ID 4018760; 1962-2004) – Total Precipitation (mm). (ICLR, 2018) ....................................................................................................3.9 Table 3-5: Projected (2025-2075) IDF Data using RCP 8.5 - (Weyburn; Station ID 4018760; 1962-2004) -Total Precipitation (mm). (ICLR, 2018) ...................................3.9 Table 3-6: Projected Percentage Precipitation Accumulation Increase for Weyburn Weather Station under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, 2025-2075. (ICLR, 2018) ......................... 3.10 Table 4-1: Selected Risk Thresholds ........................................................................................4.2 Table 4-2: Probability Scoring ..................................................................................................4.2 Table 4-3: Climate Event Risk Assessment Criteria, Occurrence and Probability Rating .......... 4.3 Table 4-4: Modified Infrastructure Severity Scoring ..................................................................4.5 Table 4-5: Infrastructure Components Evaluated ..................................................................... 4.6 Table 4-6: Summary of Risks for Highway 6/39 ........................................................................4.8 Table 5-1: Brainstormed Mitigation Strategies for High Risk Climate-Infrastructure Interactions – Workshop #2
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