Phd Thesis, Wageningen University, Wageningen, NL (2020) with References, with Summaries in English and Dutch

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Phd Thesis, Wageningen University, Wageningen, NL (2020) with References, with Summaries in English and Dutch Family Influences on Fertility in Europe, 1850-1920 Family Influences on Fertility in Europe, 1850-1920 Paul Rotering Paul Paul Rotering Propositions 1. Family members shape each other's preferences and constraints regarding fertility (this thesis). 2. Intergenerational correlations in fertility are weak but present (this thesis). 3. \Evolutionary demography is best viewed not as an alternative to traditional approaches but as a general theoretical framework that can inform and enhance existing research endeavors" (Kaplan and Lancaster 2003, p. 212). 4. When fertility decisions are concerned, people often do not behave as pure rational agents. 5. Fertility in the Netherlands will increase if the labour market can be reformed to better match individual preferences regarding the work-life balance, child care and care for the elderly { as long as flex-contracts are not synonymous to job-insecurity. 6. \Design depends largely on constraints" (Charles Eames, 1972). Propositions belonging to the thesis, entitled `Family Influences on Fertility in Europe, 1850-1920'. P.P.P. Rotering Wageningen, June 10, 2020 Family Influences on Fertility in Europe, 1850-1920 P.P.P. Rotering Thesis committee Promotors Prof. Dr H.A.J. Bras Associate Professor of Economic and Social History University of Groningen Prof. Dr J. Kok Professor of Economic, Social and Demographic History Radboud University Nijmegen Other members Prof. Dr E.S. van Leeuwen, Wageningen University & Research Prof. Dr S. Edvinsson, Ume˚aUniversity, Sweden Prof. Dr I. Devos, Ghent University, Belgium Dr P. Puschmann, Radboud University Nijmegen This research was conducted under the auspices of the Wageningen School of Social Sciences (WASS) Family Influences on Fertility in Europe, 1850-1920 Paul Pieter Philippus Rotering Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of doctor at Wageningen University by the authority of the Rector Magnificus Prof. Dr A.P.J. Mol in the presence of the Thesis Committee appointed by the Academic Board to be defended in public on 10 June 2020 at 11 a.m. in the Aula. P.P.P. Rotering Family Influences on Fertility in Europe, 1850-1920 228 pages PhD thesis, Wageningen University, Wageningen, NL (2020) With references, with summaries in English and Dutch ISBN 978-94-6395-342-9 DOI https://doi.org/10.18174/517335 Voor Anneleen, je bent de liefde van mijn leven Dankwoord Voor u ligt mijn proefschrift, een onderzoek naar het dalende geboortecijfer in Ne- derland en Zweden in de 19e eeuw. Rond het midden van de 19e eeuw daalde het geboortecijfer in West-Europa vrij plots, maar een sluitende verklaring voor de timing en ruimtelijke variatie van deze daling is tot op heden niet gevonden. Vrij recent hebben wetenschappers zich gericht op de invloed van de sociale omgeving, op het aantal kinderen dat geboren wordt en de timing van deze geboorten. Ik richt mij in dit onderzoek specifiek op de invloeden van familieleden. De hoofd- vraag luidt: \In hoeverre hing het krijgen van kinderen samen met de familiale context in West-Europa tussen 1850 en 1920?". Dit onderzoek laat zien dat de famiale context bepalend was voor de timing van geboorten en gezinsgrootte. Echter, de sterkte en richting van de invloed was afhankelijk was van het type familielid en de onderzochte periode. Er is geen significant verband gevonden tussen veranderingen in het geboortecijfer en regionale `familie systemen'. Ik ben blij dat dit proefschrift na ruim acht jaar eindelijk is voltooid. Ik heb nooit getwijfeld `ofhet proefschrift afgerond zou worden, maar mij wel { net als vrienden en familie { vaak afgevraagd hoeveel tijd het nog zou kosten. Je hoort veel verhalen van collega-promovendi die de academie verlaten en daarna nooit hun proefschrift weten te voltooien. Begin 2016 dacht ik overmoedig dat mij dat nooit zou overkomen, niet wetende hoeveel toewijding dit zou vragen. Van mijzelf, maar ook van mijn familie. Nu ik dit dankwoord schrijf, besef ik goed hoeveel inspanning de afronding van dit proefschrift heeft gevraagd en welke last nu van mijn gezin valt. Mijn avontuur begon in het Erasmusgebouw op 11 mei 2011, toen ik aan het einde van de middag op de deur van Hilde Bras klopte. Hilde was nieuw bij de afdeling Geschiedenis van de Radboud Universiteit en had een vacature openge- steld voor drie promovendi op haar VIDI project. Na een korte kennismaking was ik ervan overtuigd dat ik mijn best zou gaan doen om bij haar project betrokken te mogen zijn. Als student was zeer ik ge¨ınteresseerd in de laat-moderne economi- sche en sociale geschiedenis, maar ook in de statistische analyse van grootschalige vii datasets. Dit project bood het beste van twee werelden en de kans om mij ver- der te ontwikkelen als academicus. Mijn stille ambitie was toen om `later' als docent/onderzoeker op de universiteit te zullen blijven werken. De begeleiding van Hilde Bras en Jan Kok, mijn promotoren, was uitstekend. Zij hebben mij beide vrij gelaten om zelf te ondervinden hoe ik een goed onder- zoeker zou kunnen worden, maar op cruciale momenten hebben zij mij wel steeds in de juiste richting geduwd. Ik heb veel tijd en energie gestoken in het verza- melen, prepareren en bijna eindeloos door-analyseren van de data. Maar, op een bepaald moment moet een artikel af zijn en naar een journal voor publicatie. De ondersteuning van mijn promoteren was hierbij zeer welkom. Hilde en Jan, ik wil jullie hartelijk bedanken voor al jullie hulp en geduld bij de totstandkoming van dit proefschrift. Yuliya en Bastian, we hebben samen een hele mooie tijd gehad in Nijmegen en Wageningen. Ondanks onze verschillende karakters en nationaliteiten konden we het heel goed met elkaar vinden. Ook inhoudelijk konden we elkaar goed ver- sterken. Ik heb vooral goede herinneringen aan onze reizen naar conferenties (de SSHA in Vancouver! Daar stonden we dan opeens!) en de Posthumus bijeenkom- sten. Maar ook `thuis' op de universiteit was het fijn dat wij zo'n prettig team waren. Ik wens jullie allebei ontzettend veel succes in jullie verdere academische carri`eres! In Nijmegen dank ik de collega's van de sectie Economische, Sociale en Demo- grafische Geschiedenis. Twee collega's in het bijzonder hebben bijgedragen aan de uitstekende sfeer in het Nijmeegse. Nynke, het was altijd gezellig met jou op de kamer en ik heb nog altijd spijt dat wij samen geen artikel hebben kunnen schrijven. Robin, waar jij gaat krijgt iedereen een lach op het gezicht! Het was een enorme eer om het Big Lebowski Bowlingtoernooi op mijn palmares bij te mogen schrijven. Ook jullie heel veel succes gewenst met jullie carri`eres. Na twee jaar in het Erasmusgebouw verruilde ik mijn alma mater voor Wa- geningen Universiteit. Ons team verhuisde naar de groep Sociologie van Con- sumptie en Huishoudens met Hilde als leerstoelhouder. Al vlug nam ik deel aan verschillende seminars en werd ik actief lid van de promovendi-medezeggenschap. Hierdoor voelde ik mij in Wageningen snel thuis. Veel dank aan de collega's van de voormalige SCH groep, de WASS medezeggenschap, de WUR PhD Council en in het bijzonder aan Sandra Vermeulen voor jouw hulp tijdens de allerlaatste fase van dit proefschrift. Enkele personen hebben dit onderzoek in het bijzonder ondersteund. Lotta Vikstr¨om nodigde mij uit om in oktober 2012 als gastonderzoeker te verblijven in Ume˚a,om zo de Demographic Database van CEDAR goed te leren kennen. Dit bleek cruciaal en ik ben haar ontzettend dankbaar. Zonder Lotta's hulp was viii het niet mogelijk geweest dit onderzoek te verrichten op basis van de Zweedse data. In januari 2012 heb ik deelgenomen aan een cursus spati¨ele analyse aan het Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock. Ik wil Sebastian Klusener¨ bedanken voor zijn colleges en latere hulp bij het prepareren van de data die gebruikt is in hoofdstuk 5. Tot slot gaat ook bijzonder veel dank uit aan George Alter, Katherine Lynch, Ken Smith en de andere docenten van de cursus Longitudinal Analysis of Historical Demographic Data, die werd gegeven in de zomer van 2013. Die cursus was zeer { zeer { intensief, maar heeft mijn kennis van historische demografie en event history analyse erg verrijkt. \It takes a village to raise a child", een bekend gezegde dat ook zeker op- gaat voor dit proefschrift. Zonder de ondersteuning van mijn vrienden en familie was het onmogelijk geweest dit boek af te ronden. Ik wil allereerst mijn ouders bedanken voor hun nimmer aflatende steun, zij hebben mij altijd aangespoord om het werk op te blijven pakken. De combinatie van werk, de kinderen en het proefschrift vanaf april 2016 was erg zwaar en als gevolg hiervan heb ik mij vaak, tijdens avonduren, weekenden en vakanties, op het schrijven moeten richten in plaats van op mijn gezin, familie en vrienden. De afgelopen jaren waren zeer intensief en zonder de steun en het vertrouwen van Anneleen, mijn lieve vrouw, was dit nooit gelukt. Anneleen, jij hebt ongelooflijk veel last van mijn schouders gehaald door mij de rust en ruimte te geven om aan dit proefschrift te werken. Tijd nu om samen te genieten van de herwonnen vrije tijd en onze drie prachtige dochters. Ik draag dit boek met veel liefde aan jou op. ix x CONTENTS Contents Dankwoord (in Dutch) vii 1 Introduction: Family Influences on Fertility 1 1.1 Introduction . .3 1.1.1 Aim of this study . .6 1.1.2 Research framework . .7 1.2 The First Demographic Transition . 10 1.2.1 Demographic Transition Theory . 11 1.2.2 The Princeton European Fertility Project . 16 1.2.3 Toward a restatement of Demographic Transition Theory . 19 1.3 Social interactions and the role of family members . 22 1.3.1 Pathways of kin influence . 23 1.3.2 Evolutionary theory .
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