https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-9 Preprint. Discussion started: 31 March 2021 c Author(s) 2021. CC BY 4.0 License. Downscaling of climate change scenarios for a high resolution, site– specific assessment of drought stress risk for two viticultural regions with heterogeneous landscapes Marco Hofmann 1, Claudia Volosciuk 2, Martin Dubrovský 3,4 , Douglas Maraun 5 and Hans R. Schultz 1 5 1Department of General and Organic Viticulture, Hochschule Geisenheim University, Geisenheim, 65366, Germany 2Science and Innovation Department, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, CH-1211, Switzerland 3Institute of Atmospheric Physics, The Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, 141 00, Czech Republic 4Global Change Research Institute, The Czech Academy of Sciences, Brno, 603 00, Czech Republic 5Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, 8010, Austria 10 Correspondence to : Marco Hofmann (
[email protected]) Abstract. Extended periods without precipitation observed for example in Central Europe including Germany during the seasons from 2018 to 2020, can lead to water deficit and yield and quality losses for grape and wine production. However, irrigation infrastructure is largely non–existent. Regional climate models project changes of precipitation amounts and patterns, indicating an increase in frequency of occurrence of comparable situations in the future. In order to assess possible impacts of 15 climate change on the water budget of grapevines, a water balance model was developed, which accounts for the large heterogeneity of vineyards with respect to their soil water storage capacity, evapotranspiration as a function of slope and aspect, and viticultural management practices. The model was fed with data from soil maps (soil type and plant available water capacity), a digital elevation model, the European Union (EU) vineyard–register, observed weather data and future weather data provided by regional climate models and a stochastic weather generator.