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Everfarm® − Climate Adapted Perennial-Based Farming Systems ® Everfarm − Climate adapted perennial-based farming systems for dryland agriculture in southern Australia Final Report Robert Farquharson, Amir Abadi, John Finlayson, Thiagarajah Ramilan, De Li Lui, Muhuddin Anwar, Steve Clark, Susan Robertson, Daniel Mendham, Quenten Thomas and John McGrath EverFarm® – Climate adapted perennial-based farming systems for dryland agriculture in southern Australia Robert Farquharson1, Amir Abadi 2, John Finlayson3, Thiagarajah Ramilan1, De Li Liu4, Muhuddin R Anwar 4, Steve Clark5, Susan Robertson6, Daniel Mendham7, Quenten Thomas8 and John McGrath9 1 Future Farm Industries Cooperative Research Centre and University of Melbourne 2 Future Farm Industries Cooperative Research Centre and Western Australian Department of Environment and Conservation 3 Future Farm Industries Cooperative Research Centre and University of Western Australia 4 New South Wales Department of Primary Industries 5 Victorian Department of Primary Industries 6 Charles Sturt University 7 Future Farm Industries Cooperative Research Centre and CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences 8 Quisitive Pty Ltd 9 Future Farm Industries Cooperative Research Centre May 2013 A project report funded by the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility and the Future Farm Industries Cooperative Research Centre Published by the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility ISBN: 978-1-925039-66-5 NCCARF Publication 95/13 © 2013 Future Farm Industries Cooperative Research Centre This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process without prior written permission from the copyright holder. Please cite this report as: Farquharson, R, Abadi, A, Finlayson, J, Ramilan, T, Liu, DL, Anwar, MR, Clark, S, Robertson, S, Mendham, D, Thomas, Q & McGrath, J 2013, EverFarm® – Climate adapted perennial-based farming systems for dryland agriculture in southern Australia, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, 147 pp. Acknowledgement This work was carried out with financial support from the Australian Government (Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency) and the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF). The role of NCCARF is to lead the research community in a national interdisciplinary effort to generate the information needed by decision makers in government, business and in vulnerable sectors and communities to manage the risk of climate change impacts. The authors acknowledge with thanks the interaction and discussions with landholders, agricultural consultants and researchers at the four project sites. Other researchers have been very generous in providing time for us in discussing issues in relation to this project. These have been Imma Farre, Ian Foster, John Bartle, Mike Ewing, Donkor Addai and Tas Thamo. We also acknowledge with thanks the thoughtful advice from the steering committee members, Prof Ross Kingwell, Dr Julia Wilson and Dr John McGrath. Figure 8.1. P1 Mallee Harvester, permission received courtesy of Future Farm Industries Cooperative Research Centre (FFICRC). Disclaimer The views expressed herein are not necessarily the views of the Commonwealth or NCCARF, and neither the Commonwealth nor NCCARF accept responsibility for information or advice contained herein. Cover image © Kevin Goss, courtesy Future Farm Industries CRC Table of Contents ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................................1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...............................................................................................................2 1. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................5 1.1 CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE CHALLENGE OF ADAPTATION IN DRYLAND AGRICULTURE ...................5 1.2 RESEARCH INNOVATION ..........................................................................................................5 1.3 EVERFARM® – ECONOMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE WITH PERENNIALS .................................................................................................................................6 1.4 PROJECT DESIGN ....................................................................................................................7 1.5 ECONOMIC MODELS ................................................................................................................9 2. PROFITABILITY OF PERENNIAL-BASED FARMING SYSTEMS IN A CHANGED FARMING CLIMATE ...................................................................................................................10 SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................................10 2.1 INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................................................11 2.2 ECONOMICS OF FARM-LEVEL ADAPTATION ..............................................................................12 3. CONTEMPORARY CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES FOR AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURE AND CONTEXT FOR THIS PROJECT ................................................................................................43 SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................................43 3.1 PURPOSE .............................................................................................................................43 3.2 THE NEED FOR RESEARCH .....................................................................................................43 3.3 A FRAMEWORK FOR RESEARCH .............................................................................................43 3.4 EXISTING FARM MANAGEMENT PROCESSES AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY .......................................44 3.5 OPTIONS FOR ADAPTATION ....................................................................................................44 3.6 TRANSFORMATIONAL CHANGE ...............................................................................................47 3.7 TREES FOR BIOMASS .............................................................................................................47 3.8 IMPLICATIONS FOR THIS PROJECT ..........................................................................................48 4. CONSULTATIONS AT PROJECT SITES ...............................................................................50 SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................................50 4.1 FARM VISITS .........................................................................................................................50 4.2 GREAT SOUTHERN REGION OF WA (KATANNING) ...................................................................51 4.3 CENTRAL WHEAT BELT REGION OF WA (CUNDERDIN/KELLEBERRIN) ......................................54 4.4 SOUTHERN RIVERINA REGION OF NSW (TARCUTTA/WAGGA WAGGA) ....................................56 4.5 SOUTH WESTERN REGION OF VIC (HAMILTON) ......................................................................58 5. HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED CLIMATE DATA ...............................................................62 SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................................62 5.1 PURPOSE .............................................................................................................................62 5.2 CLIMATE DATA ......................................................................................................................63 5.3 BIAS CORRECTION ................................................................................................................63 EverFarm® – Climate adapted perennial-based farming systems for dryland agriculture in southern Australia i 5.4 CLIMATE SERIES AND COMPARISONS FOR THE PROJECT ......................................................... 65 5.5 STATISTICAL TESTING OF CLIMATE SERIES ............................................................................. 65 5.6 RESULTS ............................................................................................................................. 66 6. BIOPHYSICAL MODELLING AND PLANT RESPONSES TO CLIMATE ............................. 85 SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................. 85 6.1 PURPOSE ............................................................................................................................ 85 6.2 CLIMATE MODELS USED FOR DEVELOPING PLANT RESPONSES ................................................. 86 6.3 AGRICULTURAL MANAGEMENT AND PLANT YIELD RESPONSE MODELLING .................................. 86 6.4 SOIL TYPES AND LAND MANAGEMENT UNITS ........................................................................... 87 6.5 RESULTS ............................................................................................................................. 88 7. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF PERENNIALS IN A CHANGED FARMING CLIMATE ........... 101 SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................ 101 7.1 PURPOSE .........................................................................................................................
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