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Quantifying the Level of Gerrymandering in Michigan

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Quantifying the Level of Gerrymandering in Michigan June 2018 | Report 402 102 YEARS OF UNCOMPROMISING POLICY RESEARCH Quantifying the Level of Gerrymandering in Michigan 38777 Six Mile Road, Suite 208 | Livonia, MI 48152 | 734.542.8001 115 West Allegan, Suite 480 | Lansing, MI 48933 | 517.485.9444 P.O. Box 1612 | Holland, MI 49422 | 616-294-8359 | crcmich.org BOARD OF DIRECTORS Chair Daniel Domenicucci Anne Mervenne Aleksandra A. Miziolek Ernst & Young LLP Mervenne & Company Terence M. Donnelly Aleksandra A. Miziolek Vice Chair Dickinson Wright PLLC Cooper Standard Michael P. McGee Randall W. Eberts Paul R. Obermeyer Treasurer W. E. Upjohn Institute Comerica Bank Richard A. Favor, Jr. James M. Polehna Laura Appel Deloitte Kelly Services June Summers Haas Julie Ridenour Todd Anderson Honigman Miller Schwartz and Cohn LLP Steelcase Foundation Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan Jim Holcomb Camilo Serna Laura Appel Michigan Chamber of Commerce DTE Energy Michigan Health & Hospital Association Marybeth S. Howe Carolee K. Smith Beth A. Bialy Wells Fargo Bank Consumers Energy Plante Moran, PLLC Wendy Lewis Jackson Christine Mason Soneral Lawrence N. Bluth The Kresge Foundation ITC Holdings Corp. Penske Corporation Harry Kemp Kathleen Wilbur Chase Cantrell Lear Corporation Michigan State University Building Community Value Michael P. McGee Stephan W. Currie Miller, Canfield, Paddock and Stone PLC Michigan Association of Counties BOARD OF TRUSTEES Chair David O. Egner Daniel J. Kelly James M. Nicholson Eugene A. Gargaro, Jr. Ralph C. Wilson, Jr. Foundation Deloitte. Retired PVS Chemicals David L. Eisler Mary Kramer Don R. Parfet Ferris State University Crain Communications, Inc. Apjohn Group LLC Terence E. Adderley Kelly Services, Inc. Fritz Erickson William J. Lawrence, III Philip H. Power Northern Michigan University 42 North Partners LLC The Center for Michigan Laura Appel Michigan Health & Hospital Mark T. Gaffney Edward C. Levy, Jr. James E. Proppe Teamsters 214 Edw. C. Levy Co. Plante Moran Association Eugene A. Gargaro, Jr. Daniel T. Lis John Rakolta Jr. Donald Bachand Manoogian Foundation Attorney-At-Law Walbridge Saginaw Valley State University Dan Gilmartin Daniel Little Milton W. Rohwer Beth Chappell Michigan Municipal League University of Michigan-Dearborn TALENT 2025 RediMinds, Inc. Allan D. Gilmour Alphonse S. Lucarelli George E. Ross Brian M. Connolly Wayne State University, Emeritus Ernst & Young LLP. Retired Central Michigan University Oakwood Healthcare, Inc., Retired Alfred R. Glancy III Michael P. McGee John M. Schreuder Matthew P. Cullen Unico Investment Group LLC Miller, Canfield, Paddock First National Bank of Michigan Rock Ventures LLC Thomas J. Haas and Stone PLC Amanda Van Dusen Stephen R. D’Arcy Grand Valley State University Miller, Canfield, Paddock Detroit Medical Center Larry Merrill Richard C. Hampson MIchigan Townships Association and Stone PLC Richard DeVore Citizens Bank PNC Bank Anne Mervenne Theodore J. Vogel Paul C. Hillegonds Mervenne & Co. CMS Energy Corporation, Retired Terence M. Donnelly Michigan Health Endowment Fund Dickinson Wright PLLC Aleksandra A. Miziolek Marybeth S. Howe Cooper Standard John M. Dunn Wells Fargo Bank Western Michigan University Glenn D. Mroz Michigan Technological University Citizens Research Council of Michigan is a tax deductible 501(c)(3) organization Quantifying the Level of Gerrymandering in Michigan Contents Court Cases Referenced ............................................................................................................................... iv Summary ........................................................................................................................................................ v Introduction .....................................................................................................................................................1 Why Gerrymandering Matters ........................................................................................................................2 Defining Gerrymandering ...............................................................................................................................3 Redistricting to a Party’s Advantage ...........................................................................................................3 How Gerrymandering Functions .................................................................................................................4 The Basics of Redistricting .............................................................................................................................5 Federal Requirements ................................................................................................................................7 Population ...............................................................................................................................................7 Equal Opportunity ...................................................................................................................................9 State-Level Requirements ........................................................................................................................12 Political Boundaries ..............................................................................................................................12 Contiguity ..............................................................................................................................................12 Compactness ........................................................................................................................................13 Communities of Interest ........................................................................................................................15 Other Rules ..........................................................................................................................................15 The Failures of Current Criteria ................................................................................................................15 Oddly Shaped Districts .........................................................................................................................17 Local Government Boundary Breaks ....................................................................................................18 A New Approach ..................................................................................................................................18 Establishing a Justiciable Standard: Rejected Methods and Future Possibilities .......................................19 Vieth v. Jubelirer: The Problems with Proportionality ...............................................................................19 Symmetry and LULAC ..............................................................................................................................20 Gill v. Whitford and the Efficiency Gap .....................................................................................................23 Benisek v. Lamone and the Standing Question ........................................................................................25 Rucho v. League of Women Voters, Rucho v. Common Cause ...............................................................26 Beyond the Courts: Other Metrics to Evaluate Partisan Gerrymandering ................................................27 Responsiveness ...................................................................................................................................27 The Mean-Median Test .........................................................................................................................28 The T-Test .............................................................................................................................................28 Simulated Maps ....................................................................................................................................29 Assessing Gerrymandering in Michigan .......................................................................................................30 Efficiency Gap ..........................................................................................................................................31 Mean-Median Test ....................................................................................................................................33 T-Test ........................................................................................................................................................34 Simulated Mapping ...................................................................................................................................35 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................................................35 Endnotes ......................................................................................................................................................36 Appendix Appendix A Uncontested Elections and Calculating Measures ....................................................................38 Boxes Beyond Packing and Cracking – Other Forms of Gerrymandering ................................................................6 A Note on Population Shifts and State Apportionment .................................................................................10 Mapping Software and Gerrymandering:
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