Projected Number of People with Onchocerciasis–Loiasis Coinfection in Africa, 1995 to 2025 Natalie V.S
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Clinical Infectious Diseases MAJOR ARTICLE Projected Number of People With Onchocerciasis–Loiasis Coinfection in Africa, 1995 to 2025 Natalie V.S. Vinkeles Melchers,1 Luc E. Coffeng,1 Michel Boussinesq,2 Belén Pedrique,3 Sébastien D.S. Pion,2 Afework H. Tekle,4 Honorat G.M. Zouré,5 6 7,a 1,a Samuel Wanji, Jan H. Remme, and Wilma A. Stolk Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/cid/ciz647/5532272 by guest on 29 October 2019 1Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, The Netherlands; 2Unité Mixte Internationale 233 TransVIHMI, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), INSERM U1175, University of Montpellier, Montpellier, France; 3Research & Development Department, Drugs for Neglected Diseases initiative, and 4Preventive Chemotherapy and Transmission Control Unit, Control of Neglected Tropical Diseases Department, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland; 5Expanded Special Project for Elimination of Neglected Tropical Diseases (ESPEN), World Health Organization, Regional Office for Africa, Cité du Djoué, Brazzaville, Republic of Congo; 6Parasites and Vectors Research Unit, Department of Microbiology and Parasitology, University of Buea, Cameroon; 7Ornex, France Background. Onchocerciasis elimination through mass drug administration (MDA) is hampered by coendemicity of Loa loa, as people with high L. loa microfilariae (mf) density can develop serious adverse events (SAEs) after ivermectin treatment. We assessed the geographical overlap of onchocerciasis and loiasis prevalence and estimated the number of coinfected individuals at risk of post- ivermectin SAEs in West and Central Africa from 1995 to 2025. Methods. Focusing on regions with suspected loiasis transmission in 14 countries, we overlaid precontrol maps of loiasis and onchocerciasis prevalence to calculate precontrol prevalence of coinfection by 5 km2 × 5 km2 pixel, distinguishing different categories of L. loa mf intensity. Using statistical and mathematical models, we predicted prevalence of both infections and coinfection for 2015 and 2025, accounting for the impact of MDA with ivermectin. Results. The number of people infected with onchocerciasis was predicted to decline from almost 19 million in 1995 to 4 million in 2025. Of these, 137 000 people were estimated to also have L. loa hypermicrofilaremia (≥20 000 L. loa mf/mL) in 1995, declining to 31 000 in 2025. In 2025, 92.8% of coinfected cases with loiasis hypermicrofilaremia are predicted to live in hypoendemic areas currently not targeted for MDA. Conclusions. Loiasis coinfection is a major concern for onchocerciasis elimination in Africa. We predict that under current strategies, at least 31 000 coinfected people still require treatment for onchocerciasis in 2025 while being at risk of SAEs, justifying continued efforts in research and development for safer drugs and control strategies. Keywords. Loa loa; onchocerciasis; ONCHOSIM; mass drug administration; serious adverse events. In 2012 the World Health Organization targeted onchocerci- at risk for O. volvulus infection in Africa were treated with iver- asis, also known as river blindness, for elimination through pre- mectin [1]. ventive chemotherapy interventions. Onchocerciasis is caused The elimination of onchocerciasis is hampered by by the filarial nematode Onchocerca volvulus and is transmitted coendemicity of loiasis (African eye worm), another filarial in- by black flies (genus Simulium). Onchocerciasis has a long fection present in West and Central Africa. People with high history of control. The Onchocerciasis Control Programme Loa loa microfilarial (mf) densities can develop potentially (1974–2002) in West Africa started with regional vector con- fatal serious adverse events (SAEs) after ivermectin treatment. trol, later supplemented by mass drug administration (MDA) The pathogenesis of postivermectin L. loa–related neurolog- with ivermectin. The African Programme for Onchocerciasis ical complications is not fully understood but is most likely a Control (APOC, 1995–2015) subsequently initiated MDA in 19 combination of mechanical blockage of capillaries by large additional African countries. In 2016, about 132 million people numbers of L. loa mf paralyzed by the drug and vascular en- dothelial changes associated with the destruction of mf [2, 3]. Ivermectin can induce marked adverse effects with a functional Received 27 March 2019; editorial decision 5 July 2019; accepted 12 July 2019; published impairment that lasts several days in those harboring >8000 mf/ online July 13, 2019. aJ. H. R. and W. A. S. contributed equally to this work. mL blood and unconsciousness, coma, and death in individuals Correspondence: N.V.S. Vinkeles Melchers, Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, with >30 000 mf/mL levels prior to treatment [2, 4, 5]. The prob- University Medical Center Rotterdam, P.O. box 2040, 3000 CA Rotterdam, The Netherlands (n. ability of SAEs after ivermectin intake increases from approxi- [email protected], [email protected]). mately 0.7% in individuals with 30 000 mf/mL to approximately Clinical Infectious Diseases® 2019;XX(XX):1–9 © The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society 7% in individuals with L. loa counts of 50 000 mf/mL [3]. As of America. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons the benefits of treatment were considered to outweigh the risk Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. of SAEs, coendemic areas with high onchocerciasis prevalence DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciz647 were nevertheless targeted for MDA with ivermectin, although Coinfections of Onchocerciasis–Loiasis • CID 2019:XX (XX XXXX) • 1 fear for SAEs sometimes resulted in low treatment coverage [6]. S3, and section 3.2. Next, we used the prevalence of history of However, coendemic areas with low onchocerciasis prevalence eye worm from the RAPLOA map to estimate the proportion have remained untreated to date and might be in need of alter- of people in each L. loa mf count intensity category (≥8000 to native strategies. <20 000 mf/mL; ≥20 000 to <30 000 mf/mL; ≥30 000 mf/mL) To understand the need for and feasibility of alternative using a statistical model as described in Supplement S1, section strategies for onchocerciasis elimination in loiasis-endemic 3.4, and Figure S4. areas, we assessed the extent of coendemicity and estimated the number of coinfected individuals, including people with Onchocerciasis Maps We used previously published maps based on rapid epidemio- such high L. loa mf intensity levels that ivermectin treatment Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/cid/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/cid/ciz647/5532272 by guest on 29 October 2019 is considered unsafe. We combined empirical data using mul- logical mapping of onchocerciasis (REMO) [12, 13]. A previous tiple sources with statistical and mathematical models to esti- model-based geostatistical analysis of REMO data [12] resulted mate how the number of onchocerciasis, loiasis, and coinfection in a raster map of the precontrol prevalence of nodules in cases change over time since precontrol levels up to 2025. APOC countries (Figure 1) and some newly added extensions (Figure S2 and Supplement S1, section 3.3 in). We converted the 2 2 METHODS precontrol nodule prevalence map into a 5 km × 5 km map of precontrol O. volvulus mf prevalence in the general population General Approach using methods described elsewhere [14, 15]. To estimate the number of people with onchocerciasis–lo- We linked each raster cell to its APOC project (implemen- iasis coinfection in Africa, we first overlaid 5 km2 × 5 km2 tation unit for MDA, see definitions inSupplement S1, section resolution raster precontrol maps of loiasis and onchocer- 1) and related information on project treatment history and ciasis prevalence with rural population density data from expected future treatment scenario. Briefly, nearly all oncho- 1995. For each raster cell, we then used predictive mod- cerciasis hyper- and mesoendemic areas had started annual or eling approaches to assess likely changes in the prevalence sometimes biannual MDA by 2013 (up to which year we have of both infections thanks to locally implemented MDA with reported treatment history). For the few projects that had not ivermectin. Predictions for 2015 and 2025 were combined yet started MDA by 2013, we followed the assumptions of Kim with raster maps of estimated population density for the et al [16], with some adaptations described in Supplement S1, same years, and results were subsequently aggregated over section 3.5, and Supplement S3. all raster cells within defined target areas. Below, we de- scribe the methods used to estimate the impact of MDA with Impact of MDA on Loiasis ivermectin on the 2 infections. A detailed methodology de- Based on published studies [17–19], we assume that MDA scription, including the definitions applied, is provided in causes a change in the L. loa mf count frequency distribu- Supplement S1, Table S1. tion. In our main analysis, we assumed that MDA causes a Geographical Scope of the Analysis change in the L. loa mf count frequency distribution among The geographical scope of this analysis includes areas that were the population that received a first ivermectin treatment ac- surveyed for L. loa endemicity across