APRIL 2020 On the Horizon A Collection of Papers from the Next Generation EDITOR Simone Williams AUTHORS Mary Boatright Rick Cassleman Madison Estes Sam Guthrie Rafael Loss Craign Neuman Dev Patel James H. V. To Kyle Yohe A Report of the CSIS PROJECT ON NUCLEAR ISSUES APRIL 2020 – VOL. 2 On the Horizon A Collection of the Papers from the Next Generation EDITOR Simone Williams AUTHORS Mary Boatright Rick Cassleman Madison Estes Sam Guthrie Rafael Loss Craig Neuman Dev Patel James H. V. To Kyle Yohe Lanham • Boulder • New York • London About CSIS The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a bipartisan, nonprofit policy research organization dedicated to advancing practical ideas to address the world’s greatest challenges. Thomas J. Pritzker was named chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in 2015, succeeding former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn (D-GA). Founded in 1962, CSIS is led by John J. Hamre, who has served as president and chief executive officer since 2000. CSIS’s purpose is to define the future of national security. We are guided by a distinct set of values— nonpartisanship, independent thought, innovative thinking, cross-disciplinary scholarship, integrity and professionalism, and talent development. CSIS’s values work in concert toward the goal of making real-world impact. CSIS scholars bring their policy expertise, judgment, and robust networks to their research, analysis, and recommendations. We organize conferences, publish, lecture, and make media appearances that aim to increase the knowledge, awareness, and salience of policy issues with relevant stakeholders and the interested public. CSIS has impact when our research helps to inform the decisionmaking of key policymakers and the thinking of key influencers. We work toward a vision of a safer and more prosperous world. CSIS is ranked the number one think tank in the United States as well as the defense and national security center of excellence for 2016-2018 by the University of Pennsylvania’s annual think tank report. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed herein should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). © 2020 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved. ISBN: 978-1-5381-4011-6 (pb); 978-1-5381-4012-3 (ebook) Center for Strategic & International Studies Rowman & Littlefield 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW 4501 Forbes Boulevard Washington, D.C. 20036 Lanham, MD 20706 202-887-0200 | www.csis.org 301-459-3366 | www.rowman.com On the Horizon: A Collection of the Papers from the Next Generation | II About the Project on Nuclear Issues The Project on Nuclear Issues (PONI) was developed in 2003 to develop the next generation of policy, technical, and operational nuclear professionals by fostering, sustaining, and convening a networked community of emerging experts. PONI identifies and cultivates emerging thought leaders by building relationships, deepening understanding and sharing perspectives across the full range of nuclear issues and communities. PONI’s programs provide inclusive, diverse, and creative opportunities for emerging experts to learn about policy, technical, and operational aspects of the nuclear enterprise; develop and present new concepts and ideas; engage in thoughtful and informed debates; and tour and visit sites across the nuclear enterprise. PONI works to achieve this mission through several objectives: ▪ Identifying emerging thought leaders and providing them with the opportunity to develop and present new concepts and ideas. ▪ Sponsoring new cutting-edge research. ▪ Encouraging thoughtful and informed debate. ▪ Engaging a broad and diverse community across the country and internationally. ▪ Providing a networked platform for information-sharing and collaboration across the broad nuclear community. ▪ Cultivating young professionals through opportunities to build relationships, deepen understanding, and share perspectives across the full range of nuclear issues and communities. PONI sponsors numerous opportunities for young professionals to engage in thoughtful and informed debate on the nuclear community’s most pressing challenges. PONI strives to expand its outreach to address all career and academic levels, connect young professionals in collaborative research projects, broaden the topics it covers across the full spectrum of nuclear issues, and ensure robust inclusion of expertise from all critical domains—academic, military, scientific, and technical. 1. Inclusivity – Welcome all ideas and perspectives across political, ideological and policy spectrums. 2. Diversity – Actively seek interdisciplinary perspectives (technical, operational, corporate, government, academic) and embrace participation across all demographics. III 3. Creativity – Promote collaborative, innovative research and dynamic, engaging programming. Amongst the various programming opportunities available through PONI, the authors in this publication were members of PONI’s 2019 Nuclear Scholars Class. The PONI Nuclear Scholars Initiative is a group of select graduate students and young professionals. The Nuclear Scholars Initiative aims to provide top graduate students and young professionals from around the country with a unique venue to interact and dialogue with senior experts on nuclear weapons issues. Those accepted into the program are hosted once per month at CSIS in Washington, D.C., where they participate in daylong workshops with senior government officials, policy experts, and technical experts. Over the course of the six-month program, Scholars are required to prepare a research product. PONI has several alumni from this initiative, many of which continue to work in the nuclear field and are likely to play key roles in nuclear policy development, technical innovations, and operations. On the Horizon: A Collection of the Papers from the Next Generation | IV Acknowledgments PONI owes many thanks to the authors for their dedication and outstanding work. We appreciate senior experts and Mid-Career Cadre members who reviewed and edited, provided mentorship and guidance, and came to speak with the Nuclear Scholars during their workshops. PONI could not function without their generosity and support. Lastly, PONI would like to express gratitude to our partners for their continued support. Amongst our many partners this publication was made possible with support by the National Nuclear Security Administration. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration under Award Number DE-NA0003524. This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the U.S. government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the U.S. government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the U.S. government or any agency thereof. V Contents Introduction 1 Moving Forward in a Post-INF World 2 Mary Boatright Expanding Cyber Resilience Beyond Convention: Resiliency and Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications 11 Rick Cassleman New Futures for Nuclear Arms Control: Examining a Framework and Possibilities with Hypersonic Weapons 24 Madison Estes Will the Adoption of Artifical Intelligence-enabled Decision Support Tools by India Reduce Nuclear Stability with Pakistan 36 Sam Guthrie Artifical Intelligence, the Final Piece to the Counterforce Puzzle? 49 Rafael Loss The Cult of Accelerated War: How U.S. and Chinese Warfighting Doctrines Increase the Risk of Escalation 63 Craig Neuman India’s Sea-Based Deterrent: Evaluating the Effectiveness of India’s Submarine Nuclear Deterrent 74 Dev Patel Assessing the Impacts of the PLA’s Nuclear Modernization Efforts on the Stability of the Taiwan Strait 85 James H.V. To An Offensive Leap: An Analogy of Hypersonic Weapons to Early ICBMs 97 Kyle Yohe About the Editor 105 VI Introduction The role that nuclear weapons play in international security has changed since the end of the Cold War, but the need to maintain and replenish the human infrastructure for supporting nuclear capabilities and dealing with the multitude of nuclear challenges remains essential. For a number of reasons, including the diminished emphasis on nuclear weapons post-Cold War, expertise on nuclear issues—particularly within younger generations—declined following the end of the Cold War. Cultivating the expertise that is critical to meeting the nuclear challenges of the future remains difficult despite efforts to rebuild and restore this essential cadre of talent and expertise. Meeting the security challenges of the future will require a sustained effort over the long-term by a multidisciplinary cadre of nuclear experts who are equipped with critical knowledge and skills as well as a robust professional network. It will also require new and creative thinking on how to approach various political, military, legal, and technical challenges in the United States and around the world. Recognizing this challenge, the Center