Deliverable F.4 Social Vulnerability Model Results And
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Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria ITERATE Deliverable F.4 Social vulnerability model results and map ECHO/SUB/2016/740181/PREV23 – ITERATE – Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria Project co-funded by ECHO – Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection Author IUSS Pavia Al Mouayed Bellah Nafeh Andres Abarca Ricardo Monteiro Mario Martina Date December 2018 Review FEUP Smail Kechidi Jose Miguel Castro Date April 2018 ECHO/SUB/2016/740181/PREV23 – ITERATE – Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria Project co-funded by ECHO – Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection Table of Contents 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................ 1 2. Methodology .................................................................................................................................. 2 2.1. Social Vulnerability Index................................................................................................................ 2 2.2. SCORECARD Approach ...................................................................................................................... 2 2.3. Hybrid Approach: Composite Social Vulnerability Index ....................................................... 2 3. ASSESSMENT .................................................................................................................................. 3 3.1. Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) ................................................................................................... 3 3.1.1. Population.................................................................................................................................................................. 3 3.1.2. Education ................................................................................................................................................................... 4 3.1.3. Economy ..................................................................................................................................................................... 4 3.1.4. Health ........................................................................................................................................................................... 5 3.1.5. Infrastructure........................................................................................................................................................... 5 3.1.6. Habitat ......................................................................................................................................................................... 6 3.1.7. Governance and Institutional Capacity ...................................................................................................... 6 3.1.8. Summary of SoVI Analysis................................................................................................................................. 6 3.2. SCORECARD-Based Assessment ..................................................................................................... 7 4. Average vulnerability score .................................................................................................... 11 5. CONCLUSION ................................................................................................................................ 14 6. Bibliography ................................................................................................................................ 14 ECHO/SUB/2016/740181/PREV23 – ITERATE – Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria Project co-funded by ECHO – Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection 1. INTRODUCTION The overall seismic risk of a population depends on three factors: hazard, exposure of assets and communities and vulnerability: physical and social. Hazard and exposure are harder to act upon, but vulnerability can be significantly reduced if properly characterized. On the other hand, the social effects are usually largelly ignored when performing seismic risk assesment, mainly because of the difficulty to quantify the human dimensions within a hazard zone and the scarcity of readility available census data. Quantification of the human dimension (through census data) within a hazard zone aids decision-makers and the exposed society itself to cope with the results of a disastrous event. Social vulnerability assessment is the evaluation of the differential impacts that several communities may present under similar levels of hazard, based on the conditions of each community’s social fabric, which includes pre-existing socioeconomic characteristics related to the capacity of groups to prepare for, respond to, and recover from damaging events (Burton & Silva, 2016). In order to quantify these effects objectivelly, a methodology has been defined in Deliverable F.2, merging concepts from two previously defined techniches, which is based on the construction of a composite index using a comparative analysis of census based data (Deliverable F.1) and results from participatory engagement with the population through the use of a questionnaire at the province administrative level as well as utilizing the feedback from the Reslience Performance Scorecard Method (Burton, Khazai, Anhorn, & Contreras, 2017), detailed in Deliverable F.3. The current report presents the computation of the composite social vulnerability index and assigning an average vulnerability score for the geographic level under assessment by reverting to the chosen indicators and the results of the questionnaire data. The computation of a comparative resilience of a group due to socio-economic parameters is conducted, with the identification of conditions that make people or places vulnerable to extreme natural events. Figure 1: Integration of potential hazards, exposures and societal resilience for seismic risk assessment 1 ECHO/SUB/2016/740181/PREV23 – ITERATE – Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria Project co-funded by ECHO – Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection 2. METHODOLOGY 2.1. Social Vulnerability Index A set of socio-economic independent variables are chosen and sub-categorized into groups. Variables are collected from census data at the desired geographical level. Furthermore, the indicators are normalized and processed using factor analysis to determine the significance of each in its corresponding group, measured in the form of constants or factor loadings.The sum-product of each variable for every desired geographical level times the determined factor loading within a group is termed the factor score (Cutter, Mitchell & Scott, 2000). Every social dimension is quantified by these factor scores (sub-indexes), placed in an additive model to produce the composite social vulnerability index score (SoVI) (Cutter, Boruff & Shirley, 2003). SoVI is a relative metric, that generates scores dependent on the overall geographic scale of reference and boundary level chosen for the analysis. 2.2. SCORECARD Approach The Resilience Performance Scorecard Methodology RPS is a multi-level, multi-scale evaluation tool (Burton, Khazai, Anhorn & Contreras 2017). RPS empowers stakeholders to assess earthquake risk and resilience parameters based on qualitative information. RPS engages the exposed group or communities leading to an increase of awareness and identification of key gaps at the community and institutional level within the boundary level. Target surveys are designed accordingly to address the reality of the society under evaluation and applied to both community members and local administration or institutional decision-makers in the risk management field. Key areas addressed: social capacity, awareness and advocacy, legal and institutional arrangements, planning and regulation, critical infrastructure and services and emergency preparedness and response. 2.3. Hybrid Approach: Composite Social Vulnerability Index In the case of ITERATE, none of the two methodologies alone was considered ideal to accurately assess the social vulnerability of the Algerian Population. SoVI approach requires census information not entirely available whereas RPS approach does not provide a measure of risk that can be directly integrated with the physical risk. A hybrid methodology was thus adopted combining both methodologies with the readily available census data and collected information from the questionnaires. The dimensions of the RPS were scored and treated as a sub-category to the SoVI framework, thus obtaining a composite vulnerability index. The methodology for incorporating the population’s feedback to the SCORECARD approach with the available census data is summarized in Figure 2 below. 2 ECHO/SUB/2016/740181/PREV23 – ITERATE – Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria Project co-funded by ECHO – Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection Figure 2: Schematic representation of Social Vulnerability Assessment Methodology adopted for ITERATE 3. ASSESSMENT 3.1. Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) The census-based indicators for the province of Blida used for the computation of the index form a set of 33 variables grouped into 7 main groups: Population, Education, Economy, Health, Infrastructure, Habitat, Governance and Institutional Capacity. Raw census data was collected, standardized and processed accordingly and transformed into a comparable scale by employing the MIN-MAX normalization (0 being the least socially vulnerable and 1 being the most vulnerable).