Metals Strategy | Seasonal Report: Outlook for 2H 2021 June 30, 2021 Seasonal Trends into 2H CONTACTS: Nicky Shiels Seasonal trends* alone don’t form the foundation ofany trade idea (given the Group Head of Metals Strategy shortcomings around this typical data analysis), but they’re usually a useful tool MKS (Switzerland) SA | www.mks.ch to supplement existing ideas, & help explain out/underperformances. Given
[email protected] | +1 917-207-8593 we’ve entered the homestretch for 2021, its perhaps worthwhile to provide a review of how 1H 2021 performances stacked up against historical seasonal An MKS PAMP GROUP Company trends, and provide an overview of the outlook for metals performances and how they “should perform” into 2H and over the summer lull (July 4th week- end—Labor Day). Seasonal 2H metals performances since 2010 • 1H’21: Gold & Silver defied seasonal historical norms on both price (down) 10.0% & flows (outflows). Platinum adhered to seasonal influences. Palladium & Q3 Seasonal Performance 8.8% Copper outperformed tremendously due to idiosyncratic factors 8.0% Q4 Seasonal Performance 6.3% 6.0% • Peak Summer (now until Labor Day): All precious metals & JPY are tradi- 4.1% tionally winners; EM Equities, Oil & EMFX are losers. DM Equities & SPX 4.0% 2.1% 1.9% put in neutral performances. 2.0% • 2H’21 Outlook (if historical seasonal trends are any indication): Palladium 0.0% -0.4% -0.7% -0.8% should fly (+16%), Copper to post solid gains (+4%), Platinum is usually -2.0% pressured and Gold & Silver are mixed (strong August gains of ~4%, but -1.8% -2.0% -4.0% investor purges in Q4 usually dampen prices) Gold Silver Copper Platinum *aggregate monthly performances for years 2010-2020 Palladium Page 2-Macro asset performances from July 4th to Labor Day Source: Bloomberg, MKS PAMP Group Page 3—Gold: Price and Flows (COT + ETF) seasonal performances Page 4—Silver: Price and Flows (COT + ETF) seasonal performances Page 5—PGMS & Copper: Price seasonal performances *monthly and quarterly performances for the 10 years since 2009 (2010-2020).