DICK SMITH’S POPULATION PUZZLE
A STUDY GUIDE by robert lewis
http://www.metromagazine.com.au
http://www.theeducationshop.com.au OVERVIEW Population is a complicated and controversial subject and, despite its importance, it has rarely been debated in Aus- Dick Smith’s Population Puzzle tells the story of Dick Smith’s tralia. We currently have the highest population growth rate campaign to change national attitudes on population growth in the developed world, which would take us from today’s and to force the Australian government to reverse its back- population of 22 million to a predicted 36 million people or ing of a rapid population increase for Australia. more in 2050. This unprecedented growth amounts to what demographer Bob Birrell describes to Smith as ‘a revolution The 67-minute film follows Smith as he takes a barn- in our immigration policy’. storming tour of Australia, meeting with experts, talking to ordinary Australians, giving public talks and appearing in the But Australia has one of the youngest populations in the de- media. veloped world, and our push to bring in skilled workers has undermined our education system, placed extra stress on The film delves into Smith’s life, returning to his original our health system and made it even harder for us to reduce home in the Sydney suburb of Roseville where he lived in our carbon footprint. the 1950s – halcyon days when migrants were welcomed as they sailed into Sydney and everyone lived on quarter-acre Smith’s mission to slow this tide is a journey through one of blocks. The camera follows Smith as he jumps out of his jet the most important public policy issues facing Australia – to address the ‘enemy’ – the Queensland property develop- finding the optimum population for a sustainable Australia. ers’ annual meeting. It’s with him as he takes talkback radio calls in Canberra. It follows him into the offices of Minister for Immigration and Citizenship Chris Evans and as he sits with a taxi driver who is sick of waiting in traffic. It goes with CURRICULUM him to Alan Jones’ studio and to the outer western suburbs APPLICABILITY of Melbourne with veteran property developer Bert Dennis, Dick Smith’s Population Puzzle who is building a new suburb for 25,000 people. It’s in the can be used as a classroom resource paddocks with a citrus farmer in South Australia who has in middle- and upper-secondary accepted the government’s $150,000 incentive package to classes in: leave the land. And it follows Smith to Bangladesh, where English SCREEN EDUCATION he witnesses the ‘brain drain’ effect, where much-needed Society and Environment doctors and nurses migrate to wealthier countries like Australian History Australia. Geography Civics and Citizenship 2 BEFORE WATCHING THE FILM
There are some key ideas and facts that you need to understand before watching the film. Look at the following information and answer the questions in each section.
A. Australia’s sustainable population (or ‘carrying’ capacity)
This refers to the population size that a nation can sustain. ‘Sustainability’ means that in any given year, the resources and energy consumed are replaced in that same year. Es- sential resources include clean water, clean air, food, shelter, warmth and other resources necessary to sustain healthy C. Components of Australia’s population life. It also includes such ‘quality of life’ elements as medi- cal care, education, proper sewage treatment and waste Australia’s growth depends on two elements: births and disposal. deaths, and immigration and emigration. The difference between births and deaths, and between immigration and Nobody knows what this is for Australia. Expert opinions emigration, is called the ‘net’ increase or decrease. Here is have varied over time. Estimates today vary from 11 mil- a graph showing Australia’s net birth rate and net overseas lion (by radical environmentalists) to 100 million (by radical migration increase over recent times. The two columns developers). added together give the total increase.
1. Why would there be disagreement about what ‘sustainability’ means?
2. What does it mean to you?
B. Australia’s population total
This is the resident population of Australia at any one time (excluding short-term visitors such as tourists). The es- timated figure at the start of August 2010 is 22,408,525, assuming an overall total population increase of one person every seventy-three seconds. You can check the current population estimate on the population clock at the Austral- ian Bureau of Statistics website at
The population clock is also accessible via
Here is a graph showing official population figures since 1989:
Australian Bureau of Statistics 4102.0 Australian Social Trends, June 2010
5. Describe the rate of growth of the Australian population since 1989.
6. What is Australia’s current growth rate? SCREEN EDUCATION http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/Lookup/ 4102.0Main+Features10Jun+2010 7. Which is the main component of that rate?
3. Describe the trend in this graph. 8. How typical is the growth rate since 2004?
4. What is happening to the graph from about 2006? 3 E. Population distribution
Australia’s population is not distributed evenly across the continent. Australia is one of the most highly urbanised na- tions in the world. Here is a table showing the distribution of residents between capital cities and the rest of each state or territory in 2007:
Capital city/balance of state ’000 Sydney 4334.0 Balance of New South Wales 2554.0 New South Wales total 6888.0 Melbourne 3805.8 Balance of Victoria 1399.1 Victoria total 5204.8 Brisbane 1857.0 D. Components of overseas migration Balance of Queensland 2324.5 Queensland total 4181.4 There are four main elements to Australia’s overseas migra- Adelaide 1158.0 tion intake: Balance of South Australia 426.2 South Australia total 1584.2 Temporary visas – given to overseas students, and • Perth 1554.1 people who are employed for a specific job for a specific Balance of Western Australia 552.0 time Western Australia total 2106.1 Hobart 207.4 • Permanent visas – given to skilled workers whom we target as migrants, family members of people who have Balance of Tasmania 286.0 permanent visas, and refugee immigrants under our Tasmania total 493.4 Refugee and Humanitarian Program Darwin 117.4 Balance of Northern Territory 97.5 • New Zealand residents, who are free to enter Australia Northern Territory total 214.9 without any restrictions. Australian Capital Territory (b) 339.8 Total capital cities (c) 13,373.4 Here are the latest available official figures (in thousands): Total balance of states and territories (d) (e) 7641.7 Australia (e) 21,015.0 Contributions 2004–5 2005–6 2006–7 2007–8 2008–9 to net overseas (b) Canberra and Balance of ACT not projected separately. migration growth (c) Includes ACT. (d) Excludes Balance of ACT. Temporary Visas 82.0 96.9 143.1 186.5 N/A (e) Includes Other Territories. Other Territories comprise Jervis Bay Territory, Christmas Island and the Cocos Permanent visas (Keeling) Islands. - Family 25.8 27.8 29.7 30.1 http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/Lookup/5A313 - Skilled 32.1 39.0 43.4 47.0 N/A 9FFA7C3B9F6CA25773700169C5D?opendocument - Humanitarian 13.1 12.0 12.2 9.3 TOTAL 71.1 78.9 85.5 86.4 11. Which capital city has the greatest proportion of residents of its state/territory? NZ 20.6 23.1 29.8 36.1 N/A
Australian citi- 31.2 27.4 25.6 31.7 N/A 12. Which has the smallest proportion? zens and others leaving Australia
TOTAL 142.5 171.5 232.8 277.3 298.9
9. What is the largest component of Australian overseas SCREEN EDUCATION immigration?
10. Why might Australia want so many of these people?
4 F. Age and gender distribution consequences of this for the nation. For example, will it affect the number of hospitals needed? The number of 13. Describe the differences between these two population schools? What will be the impact on public transport? graphs. On the amount of money available to a government from taxation?
F. Population projections
Experts can estimate the likely size of a population in the future – but these predictions are estimates only, based on certain constants. If one of the constants changes, the results will change. The main constants are birth rates over
Australian Bureau of Statistics 4102.0 14. How can you explain these differences? Australian Social Trends, June 2010
15. What would you expect the 2030 population pyramid to look like? death rates, and migration size. Here are the estimates for Australia’s population up to 2051 for three possible sce- There is an animated population pyramid on the ABS narios: where birth and migration rates are high (Series A), website:
ABS Population Projection, Australia, 2026 and 2056 (a)
2026 2056
Series A Series B Series C Series A Series B Series C
Capital city/balance of state ’000 ’000 ’000 ’000 ’000 ’000
Sydney 5487.2 5426.3 5358.2 7649.0 6976.8 6565.2
Balance of New South Wales 3189.9 2968.8 2780.2 4140.1 3233.4 2646.1
New South Wales total 8677.0 8395.1 8138.5 11,789.1 10,210.2 9211.3
Melbourne 5272.3 5038.1 4861.7 7970.7 6789.2 6100.9
Balance of Victoria 1626.1 1624.1 1636.3 1879.6 1749.1 1742.9
Victoria total 6898.3 6662.2 6498.0 9850.3 8538.3 7843.8
Brisbane 2908.0 2681.1 2465.6 4955.1 3979.3 3237.0
Balance of Queensland 3645.4 3356.9 3129.7 5966.3 4759.6 3998.2
Queensland total 6553.3 6038.0 5595.2 10,921.3 8738.9 7235.2
Adelaide 1410.8 1384.5 1391.8 1848.5 1651.8 1623.7
Balance of South Australia 531.5 499.8 451.0 691.4 552.7 406.7
South Australia total 1942.3 1884.4 1842.9 2539.9 2204.5 2030.4
Perth 2455.2 2267.6 2112.1 4164.4 3358.4 2815.5
Balance of Western Australia 796.8 732.9 660.5 1207.6 935.0 702.3
Western Australia total 3252.0 3000.5 2772.7 5372.0 4293.4 3517.7
Hobart 266.8 245.3 228.2 367.2 279.7 224.0
Balance of Tasmania 338.5 307.0 277.5 411.1 291.2 202.6
Tasmania total 605.3 552.3 505.7 778.3 571.0 426.6
Darwin 189.3 165.2 142.4 334.9 243.0 169.2
Balance of Northern Territory 140.1 119.8 100.8 238.1 158.6 94.9
Northern Territory total 329.4 285.0 243.3 573.0 401.6 264.2
Australian Capital Territory (b) 462.5 416.5 373.0 683.2 509.3 374.2
Total capital cities (c) 18,452.0 17,624.7 16,933.0 27,973.0 23,787.5 21,109.6
Total balance of states and territories (d) (e) 10,271.0 9611.9 9038.9 14,537.3 11,682.5 9796.5
Australia (e) 28,723.0 27,236.7 25,971.9 42,510.4 35,470.0 30,906.1
(a) Projections based on 2007 estimated resident population. SCREEN EDUCATION (b) Canberra and Balance of ACT not projected separately. (c) Includes ACT. (d) Excludes Balance of ACT. (e) Includes Other Territories. Other Territories comprise Jervis Bay Territory, Christmas Island and the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/Lookup/5A3139FFA7C3B9F6CA25773700169C5D?opendocument 6 EXPLORING IDEAS AND ISSUES IN THE FILM
The aim of Dick Smith’s Population Puzzle is both to present some arguments for a smaller Australian popula- tion in the future, and to stimulate an informed debate about the issue. Arguments in films are presented not only through information, but also visually. Often the way something is presented can have a greater impact and influence on our attitudes and ideas than the actual information that is given.
Your tasks therefore in watching the film are to:
• Identify the main arguments that the film puts forward about smaller population growth
• Critically assess those arguments and the way they are presented in the film
• Decide for yourself both where you stand on the is- sue, and if the issue needs debating. (See next page.) SCREEN EDUCATION
7 The following questions and information will help you to do this.
Segment and approx The issues and arguments Evaluating the argument and the film’s presentation of it. In each time code case you need to justify your answer.
1 1a What does Dick Smith say is the current situation with 1d How does the film establish a sense of crowdedness and Introduction population, and why it is a problem? urgency to complement the ideas being presented? 00:00:00 – 1b What does he say are the implications or consequences of 1e Is this an effective use of visuals? 00:06:50 that growth? 1c He says the choice is between 45 million and 23 or 24 million. Summarise the arguments for and against each in the table below.
Big Australia (45 million) Small Australia (23–24 million) Aspect positive negative positive negative
economic
social
environmental SCREEN EDUCATION
You should add to this table and create a useful summary as you watch more. 8 2 2a What does Smith say will be the continued impact of 2d Much of the focus in this segment is on Dick Smith’s Suburban development expansion? childhood home and experience. Is this effective in 00:06:50 – 2b What are the implications if it stops? supporting his argument? 00:12:50 2c What are the implications for Australia’s Gross Domestic 2e The case for suburban development is put through one Product (GDP)? example. Is this a fair way of promoting one argument and undermining the other? Is it effective?
3 3a What point does Smith establish about government plans for 3c How does the structure of the film here reinforce the idea of Politicians’ attitudes Australian population policy? the politicians ‘shutting the debate down’? 00:12:50 – 3b Immigration and population are issues in the 2010 election. 00:18:55 Compare the policies of the major parties in the following table.
Policy on: ALP Coalition Greens
Optimum size of population
Birth rates and policies encouraging or discouraging birth rates
Immigration numbers SCREEN EDUCATION
Types of migration to be limited or increased
9 4 4a What does the developer want? 4f Does Smith treat the developer’s arguments about Developing the cities 4b Why does he want this outcome? parks fairly? 00:18:55 – 4c What does he say about the place of city parks in this? 4g How successful is this segment in establishing that 00:21:50 4d How does Smith react to this claim? ‘business is pulling the strings’? 4e The developer’s ideas would lead to medium- or 4h How does the film visually undermine and even high-density living. How is this different to the ‘quarter ridicule the argument? acre block’ lifestyle? Consider the advantages and disadvantages of each lifestyle.
5 5a Why is Bernard Salt an important player in this debate? 5c How does Smith undermine Salt’s authority as an Bernard Salt 5b What is his position on population growth? expert? 00:21:50 – 5d Is this a fair tactic in a debate? 00:23:50
6 6a What alternative does Smith propose to overcome the 6d Smith provides one example to support his An ageing Australia supposed need to provide skills through immigration? argument. Is this an effective way of arguing? 00:23:50 – Look at the information below about the ageing of Australia. 6e Does Smith bring out the implications of an ageing 00:27:57 6b What will happen to the workforce by 2101? population fairly? 6c What impact will this have on the economy?
http://www.immi.gov.au/media/fact-sheets/15population.htm SCREEN EDUCATION
http://www.immi.gov.au/media/fact-sheets/15population.htm http://www.treasury.gov.au/igr/igr2010/report/html/01_ Executive_Summary.asp 10 7 7a How might a greater population help defence? 7c Smith quotes one person here. Is this an effective Defence 7b What does General Cosgrove argue? argument? 00:27:57 – 00:32:10
8 8a What points is Smith making in this segment with the house isolated within a 8b How do the visual elements in this segment Suburban high rise development? contribute to the effectiveness of the argument? 00:32:10 – 00:38:15
9 9a What key points are made about Bangladesh in this segment? 9c How do the visual elements of the Bangladesh Bangladesh 9b Smith says that the taking of skilled people from third world countries as segment contribute to the power of Smith’s 00:38:15 – Australian immigrants is immoral. Do you agree with this? Or do you think that argument? 00:43:28 these people have the right to advance themselves, to go where they want, and do not have to contribute to their own societies?
10 10a What does Smith see as an alternative to immigration when it comes to 10b How does Smith use experts here? Training creating skilled people? 10c Is this convincing? 00:42:50 – 00:47:35
11 11a How does Smith suggest that high immigration rates challenge other policies 11f Is Smith’s graph a fair representation of global Environment about environmental sustainability? population development? 00:47:35 – Look at the graphs of world population below. 00:51:34 11b What is happening to world population? 11c Where is the greatest contribution to population growth coming from? 11d What alternative scenarios are possible? 11e What will determine which of the three possibilities is realised in the future?
World population change SCREEN EDUCATION
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World_population http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World-Population _(UN).svg -1800-2100.png 11 12 12a What point is Smith making about ‘food security’? 12c How effective is the footage of the destruction of the Food security 12b Many farms are being run by foreigners. We have controls over foreign farm in supporting Smith’s arguments? 00:51:34 – countries owning Australian resources. Should we extend this to food 00:61:00 resources? Read the following report and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of selling farms to overseas buyers.
An ABC investigation has revealed that foreign interests are Ausbuy (Australian-owned companies) spokesperson Lynne buying up large tracts of Australian farming land. The inquir- Wilkinson: You see, when foreign countries take over our ies by the News Online Investigation team, Background assets, or foreign companies take over, they buy our wealth Briefing and PM found that countries like China, Japan, creating assets, they buy cash flow, and they’re buying our South Korea, Saudi Arabia and Qatar were eyeing off arable export markets. land around the world to secure the food for their increasing demands. Struggling Australian farmers are also turning to It’s Australians who have built these assets and that’s what overseas buyers to offload their properties. The trend has we object to. alarmed many in Australia. And there are fears that Australia may have trouble coping with future food and water de- Australian Agriculture spokesperson David Farley: I think the mands if foreign interests snap up too many of the nation’s only thing we have to fear is that if we lose the proper gov- agricultural resources. ernance of that land or those assets, if we lose productivity from those assets, or if they’re no longer contributing to our Farmer Jim Hersey: Put yourself in our position, where we’re country as far as economic and social good and well-being all going to lose it if it stays like it is and we’ll all be down is concerned. the chute. So would we be happier to let foreign ownership come in and buy us and at least finish up with something to ABC PM, 26 July 2010,
12 13 Dick Smith’s Population Puzzle presents arguments and information to challenge 13d Discuss the use of these elements of the film in Conclusion the ‘big Australia’ argument in six key areas: creating an effective result: 00:61:00 - the lack of a population plan - editing –00:66:00 - the environment - the use of experts - defence - the use of computer generated graphics. - skills shortages 13e Would you say that Dick Smith’s Population Puzzle - the ageing population is an effective piece of propaganda? You will need - foreign policy and the world. to carefully define what you mean by propaganda to 13a Do you think Smith has convinced you that we need a small Australia? answer this question. 13b Has Smith convinced you that we need an informed national debate on the issue? 13c Which type of documentary would you say best describes Dick Smith’s Population Puzzle: - a ‘fly-on-the-wall’ approach that presents all information? - a polemical approach that openly tries to persuade the viewer to accept its view? - a ‘by stealth’ approach that pretends to be fair and balanced, but which presents one case strongly while undermining the other unfairly?
FURTHER INFORMATION
Dick Smith’s Population Puzzle website,
Dick Smith has announced a $1 million prize for young people called the William Wilberforce Award. The prize will go to a person under thirty years of age who impresses Dick Smith as a potential future leader committed to a steady state economy.
The Centre for the Advancement of the Steady State Economy website,
Australian population information is available on the Austral- ian Bureau of Statistics website,
There are various Australian websites that engage with the population debate. An internet search on ‘Australian popula- tion debate’ will list some of these. You need to be aware of the point of view of the website to help you decide on the nature and value of the information it contains.
For more detail on this issue, see ‘Selling the Farm Part 1: Does Australia risk losing control of its food security?’ at
An international view is available in Fred Pearce, People- quake: Mass Migration, Ageing Nations and the Coming Population Crash, Eden Project Books, London, 2010. SCREEN EDUCATION
13 This study guide was produced by ATOM. (© ATOM 2010) [email protected] For more information on Screen Education magazine, or to download other study guides for assessment, visit
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