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Interim Plan - Outline Business Case

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Interim Plan - Outline Business Case Cardiff Council Clean Air Feasibility Study Interim Plan - Outline Business Case March 2019 SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 CARDIFF 1 1.2 OVERVIEW OF STUDY 1 1.3 PURPOSE OF THIS REPORT 2 1.4 SUMMARY OF INITIAL PLAN 2 SECTION 2 STRATEGIC CASE 7 2.1 BACKGROUND AND STRATEGIC CONTEXT 7 2.1.1 UK AIR QUALITY STRATEGY 7 2.1.2 EUROPEAN AIR QUALITY DIRECTIVES 7 2.1.3 AIR QUALITY OBJECTIVES AND LIMIT VALUES 8 2.2 PUBLIC HEALTH IMPACTS 8 2.3 AIR QUALITY IN CARDIFF 10 2.3.1 MONITORING 10 2.3.2 AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT AREAS 10 2.3.3 IMPROVEMENTS TO AIR QUALITY -PROGRESS TO DATE 12 2.4 EARLY INTERVENTIONS 13 2.4.1 ON STREET RESIDENTIAL CHARGING POINTS 13 2.4.2 ELECTRIC CHARGING POINTS AT COUNCIL FACILITIES 13 2.4.3 PLANNING GUIDANCE FOR THE PROVISION OF ELECTRIC VEHICLE CHARGING POINTS 13 2.4.4 EXPANSION OF NEXTBIKE SCHEME 14 2.4.5 PUBLIC SERVICE BOARD TARGETS 14 2.5 WELL-BEING OF FUTURE GENERATIONS (WALES) ACT 2015 14 2.5.1 CARDIFF WELL-BEING PLAN 2018-2023 15 2.5.2 NATIONAL WELL-BEING GOALS AND THE FIVE WAYS OF WORKING 16 2.6 CONSISTENCY AND RELEVANCE WITH OTHER POLICIES 17 2.6.1 LOCAL POLICY 17 2.6.1.1 Local Transport Plan 17 2.6.1.2 Cardiff’s Local Development Plan 2006-2026 18 2.6.1.3 Capital City Regional Deal 20 2.6.2 NATIONAL POLICY 20 2.6.2.1 Prosperity for All 20 2.6.2.2 Welsh Transport Policy 21 2.6.2.3 Planning Policy Wales 21 2.6.2.4 Active Travel (Wales) Act 2013 21 2.7 STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT 21 2.7.1 CONSULTATION ON THE GREEN PAPER ON TRANSPORT AND CLEAN AIR 22 2.7.2 ENGAGEMENT ON PREFERRED OPTION 22 2.8 THE CASE FOR CHANGE 23 2.8.1 PRIMARY OBJECTIVE 23 2.8.2 SECONDARY OBJECTIVES 23 Page|i SECTION 3 ECONOMIC CASE 24 3.1 INTRODUCTION 24 3.2 MODELLING OF THE SHORTLIST OF MEASURES 25 3.2.1 CLEAN AIR STRATEGY & ACTION PLAN (CASAP) PACKAGE INTERVENTIONS 25 3.3 LOCAL AIR QUALITY MODELLING RESULTS FOR CASAP MEASURES 26 3.3.1 MODELLED RESULTS ON PCM ROAD LINKS 27 3.3.2 RESULTS AT LOCAL MONITORING LOCATIONS 30 3.3.3 MODELLING UNCERTAINTY 33 3.4 CHARGING CLEAN AIR ZONE – BENCHMARKING EXERCISE 35 3.4.1 CLEAN AIR ZONE SCENARIOS 35 3.4.2 MODELLING ASSUMPTION OF CAZS 36 3.4.3 COMPARISON WITH PCM RESULTS 38 3.4.4 RESULTS AT LOCAL MONITORING LOCATIONS 40 3.5 FURTHER QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF MEASURES 44 3.6 REVISED WELTAG APPRAISAL 46 3.6.1 ENVIRONMENTAL APPRAISAL 46 3.6.2 SOCIAL AND CULTURAL APPRAISAL 47 3.6.2.1 Physical Activity 47 3.6.2.2 Journey Times 47 3.6.3 ACCIDENTS 47 3.6.3.1 Access to Employment and Services 47 3.6.4 ECONOMIC APPRAISAL 47 3.6.4.1 Journey Time and Journey Time Reliability Changes 47 3.6.4.2 Capital Costs 47 3.6.4.3 Land 48 3.6.5 VALUE FOR MONEY 48 3.6.6 SUMMARY APPRAISAL TABLES 48 3.7 CONCLUSION ON THE ASSESSMENT OF MEASURES 53 SECTION 4 COMMERCIAL CASE 54 4.1 INTRODUCTION 54 4.2 MARKET ASSESSMENT 54 4.3 PROCUREMENT OPTIONS 55 4.3.1 EXISTING COUNCIL FRAMEWORKS 56 4.3.2 NATIONAL PROCUREMENT SERVICES 56 4.3.3 OJEU ROUTE 56 SECTION 5 FINANCIAL CASE 57 5.1 FUNDING 57 5.2 COST ASSUMPTIONS 57 5.2.1 ELECTRIC BUSES 57 5.2.2 RETRO-FIT SCHEME FOR BUSES 57 Page|ii 5.2.3 TAXI LICENSING POLICY AND MITIGATION MEASURES 58 5.2.4 CITY CENTRE SCHEMES 60 5.2.5 ACTIVE TRAVEL MEASURES 62 5.2.6 MONITORING AND EVALUATION 63 5.3 CONTINGENCY 65 5.4 ASSURANCE OF COST ESTIMATES 65 5.5 BUDGET AND RISK MANAGEMENT 65 5.6 OTHER FUNDING OPTIONS 65 SECTION 6 MANAGEMENT CASE 66 6.1 INTRODUCTION 66 6.2 PROJECT MANAGEMENT 66 6.2.1 PROJECT BOARD 66 6.2.2 PROJECT EXECUTIVE (PEXEC) 66 6.2.3 SERVICE AREA REPRESENTATIVE (SENIOR USER) 67 6.2.4 SENIOR SUPPLIER 67 6.2.5 PROJECT MANAGER 67 6.2.6 PROJECT ASSURANCE 67 6.2.7 PROJECT SUPPORT 68 6.2.8 AUDIT COMMITTEE 68 6.2.9 SENIOR MANAGEMENT 68 6.2.10 INVESTMENT REVIEW BOARD 68 6.2.11 ORGANISATIONAL DEVELOPMENT MANAGEMENT BOARD 69 6.3 FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT 70 6.3.1 FINANCIAL REPORTING 70 6.3.2 VARIATION MONITORING 70 6.4 PROJECT PLAN 71 6.5 RISK MANAGEMENT 71 6.6 COMMUNICATIONS STRATEGY 71 6.6.1 AIMS 71 6.6.2 OBJECTIVES 71 6.6.3 STAKEHOLDER MANAGEMENT 72 SECTION 7 SUMMARY AND NEXT STEPS 76 7.1 RESULTS OF ASSESSMENT OF OPTIONS 76 7.2 NEXT STEPS 77 Appendix A - Air Quality Modelling Methodology Report Appendix B - Transport Modelling Technical Approach Appendix C - Clean Air Strategy Appendix D - Project Risk Register Appendix E - Communication Strategy Page|iii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 - PCM Road Links Results 2021.................................................................................................3 Figure 2 - Local Modelling Baseline Results 2021...................................................................................4 Figure 3 - Source Apportionment Analysis 2021 ....................................................................................5 Figure 4 – 2017 Monitored NO2 Results and Existing AQMAs in Cardiff...............................................11 Figure 5 - The Well- being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 Matrix.........................................15 Figure 6- PCM Links Local Model Results for CASAP 3 Package- 2021 .................................................29 Figure 7 - Probability Distribution Analysis...........................................................................................35 Figure 8 - CAZ Boundary for Benchmark Exercise ................................................................................36 Figure 9 - PCM Links Colour Coded With CAZ 1 Results In 2021...........................................................42 Figure 10 - PCM Links Colour Coded With CAZ 2 Results In 2021.........................................................43 Figure 11 - Locations of Proposed Air Quality Monitoring Network ....................................................64 Figure 12 - Updated Project for Delivery of Final Plan .........................................................................74 Figure 13 - Implementation Plan of Preferred Options ........................................................................75 List of Tables Table 1 - Initial Shortlist of Measures.....................................................................................................5 Table 2 - UK and EU Air Quality Objectives for NO2, PM10 and PM2.5..................................................8 Table 3- Five Year Dataset For Monitored Annual Average NO2 Levels At Residential Facades. .........12 Table 4 - Council Expectations on the Provision of EV Charging Points ...............................................13 Table 5 - Shortlist of Measures Detailed in Initial Plan.........................................................................24 Table 6 - CASAP Measures Transportation Modelling Methodologies.................................................25 Table 7 - Emission Based Modelling Assumptions................................................................................26 Table 8 - PCM and local model NO2 concentration results for 2015 and 2021 (NO2 in µgm-3) ...........27 Table 9 - Predicted NO2 Annual Mean Concentrations at Monitoring Site Locations in 2015 & 2021.30 Table 10 - CAZ Modelling Assumptions ................................................................................................37 Table 11 - PCM and Local Model NO2 Concentration Results for CAZ 1 and 2.....................................38 Table 12 - Predicted NO2 Annual Mean Concentrations at Monitoring site Locations in 2021 with CAZ 1 and CAZ 2...........................................................................................................................................40 Table 13 - Revision of Initial Measures against Primary Success Factor...............................................44 Table 14 - Revised Assessment of Options Against Primary and Secondary Objectives ......................45 Table 15– WelTAG Well-being Aspects ................................................................................................46 Table 16 - CASAP Measures Summary Appraisal..................................................................................49 Table 17 - CAZ Scenario 1 Summary Appraisal Table ...........................................................................51 Table 18 - Summary of WelTAG Well-being Aspects Appraisals ..........................................................52 Table 19 - Bus Retrofit Scheme Costs...................................................................................................58 Table 20 - Taxi Incentive Grant Scheme Spend Forecast......................................................................59 Table 21 - City Centre West Scheme Expenditure Forecast .................................................................61 Table 22 - City Centre North Scheme Expenditure Forecast ................................................................61 Table 23 - Eastside Phs 1 Scheme Expenditure Forecast......................................................................61 Table 24 - Expenditure Forecast for the 20 Mph Areas........................................................................62 Table 25 - Expenditure Forecast for Completion of Cycle Way 1 .........................................................62 Table 26 - Final Preferred Package of Measures Estimated Costs........................................................63 Table 27 - Cost Estimates for an Equivalent AURN Monitoring Station ...............................................64 Table 28 - Cost Estimate for Additional Near Real-time Air Quality Analysers.....................................65 Table 29 - Stakeholder Interest Groups Matrix ....................................................................................73 Page|iv
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