ST FAGANS COMMUNITY COUNCIL
Mixed Residential Scheme LAND AT WEST CARDIFF
Transport Appraisal
Project Number: 1209-59 Report Number: 1209-59/TA/01 Date: December 2012 Mixed Residential Scheme, LAND AT WEST CARDIFF St Fagans Community Council Transport Appraisal
DOCUMENT SIGNATURE AND REVIEW SHEET
Project Details
Project Title: Mixed Residential Scheme , LAND AT WEST CARDIFF
Project No.: 1209-59 Report No.: 1209-59/TA/01
Client: St Fagans Community Council
Prepared By: Checked By: Approved for issue
Name James Morgan Peter Evans Peter Evans
Signature
Date December 2012 December 2012 December 2012
Document Review
Revision Date Description Checked By
Issued by:
Bristol Transport Planning Associates Cambridge 32 Windsor Place Cardiff Cardiff London CF10 3BA Welwyn Garden City
029 2023 0303 [email protected] www.tpa.uk.com
1209-59/TA/01 Transport Planning Associates December 2012 i Mixed Residential Scheme, LAND AT WEST CARDIFF St Fagans Community Council Transport Appraisal
CONTENTS PAGE
1 INTRODUCTION 1 2 EXISTING SITUATION 3 Introduction Pedestrian Infrastructure Cycling Infrastructure Local highway network Bus Infrastructure Rail Infrastructure Technical Advice Note (TAN) 18 3 LDP PREFERRED STRATEGY 14 Introduction LDP – Preferred Strategy LDP – Background Technical Paper No.12 - Transportation LDP – Background Technical Paper No.5 – Summary of Scrutiny Findings 4 COMMITTED DEVELOPMENTS 18 Introduction St Fagans National History Museum Ely Bridge Rhondda Cynon Taf – LDP allocations 5 ARUP’S MOVEMENT STRATEGY 20 6 IMPACT OF LDP PREFERRED STRATEGY AND COMMITTED DEVELOPMENTS 24 Introduction Pedestrian Infrastructure Cycling Infrastructure Local Highway Network Rail Infrastructure 7 LDP: BACKGROUND TECHNICAL PAPER NO. 12 –TRANSPORTATION 32 8 CONCLUSIONS 34 Summary Conclusion
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LIST OF TABLES
Table 1 Providing for Journeys on Foot – acceptable walking distances Table 2 Existing bus services in the vicinity of the site Table 3 Total residential traffic attraction Table 4 Total residential traffic attraction with reductions
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1 Site boundary plan Figure 2 Site location in wider context Figure 3 Existing highway network and infrastructure Figure 4 Straight line walking isochrones Figure 5 Extent of single lane carriageways Figure 6 Extent of congestion on local highway network Figure 7 LDP enhancements to local infrastructure
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1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Transport Planning Associates (TPA) has been commissioned by St Fagans Community Council to consider the highways and transportation issues associated with the redevelopment of land located in the west of Cardiff, as detailed within Cardiff Council’s LDP (LDP) Preferred Strategy.
1.2 This report will focus on site 82 of the LDP Preferred Strategy which is referred to as ‘ land to the West of Cardiff’ or the ‘Waterhall Urban Extension’ . The proposals include a comprehensive development comprising approximately 7,500 new homes, employment and associated community uses.
1.3 This report will also take into consideration the potential impacts of allocations located at Creigiau and to the north of Junction 33, which are shown by Cardiff Council to reside in the same transport corridor as north-west Cardiff.
1.4 A location plan, illustrating the location of the Waterhall sites and other development sites in relation to St Fagans is included as Figure 1 of this report.
1.5 A number of documents have been considered as part of this appraisal including:
• LDP – Preferred Strategy (Cardiff Council);
• LDP – Background Technical Paper No.5 – Summary of Scrutiny Findings;
• LDP – Background Technical Paper No.12 – Transportation;
• Waterhall Urban Extension – Movement Strategy (Arup);
• Ely Bridge Transport Assessment (Arup);
• St Fagans Museum Transport Assessment (Arup);
• Technical Advice Note (TAN) 18: Transport (2007);
1.6 The LDP Preferred Strategy will form the main focus of this report. In addition, particular attention will be paid to Arup’s report ‘Waterhall Urban Extension – Movement Strategy’ which provides a review of the existing transport conditions in north-west Cardiff and the potential for improvements which will form part of an overall concept movement strategy to support the development land use aspirations.
1.7 The structure of this Appraisal is as follows:
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• Review the existing transport infrastructure in west Cardiff in light of national guidance TAN 18 and identifying any issues that are currently present on the local pedestrian, cycle, and highway network;
• Provide a summary of the LDP Preferred Strategy proposals for the north- west Cardiff region. This includes a review of the LDP Background Paper No. 5 – Summary of Scrutiny Findings;
• Review committed developments in respect of land use and transportation with relevance to west Cardiff. This includes a review of allocated developments associated with neighbouring RCT;
• Provide a review of Arup’s movement strategy identifying any potential issues relating to the LDP Preferred Strategy proposals;
• Identify the impact of the Waterhall site and committed development proposals on the local pedestrian, cycle, and local highway network;
• Undertake a review of the LDP Background Paper No. 12 – Transportation;
• Provides a conclusion outlining the feasibility of the LDP Preferred Strategy;
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2 EXISTING SITUATION
Introduction
2.1 This section of the report will review the existing infrastructure in west Cardiff and will make reference to a review that was carried out by Arup as part of their Movement Strategy submitted in support of the Waterhall site.
2.2 The site location in the wider context of Cardiff is shown in Figure 2 of this report.
Pedestrian Infrastructure
2.3 There are a number of public rights of way in the vicinity of the Waterhall site, but they are almost exclusively rural and provide little connection with the surrounding urban areas. In their Movement Strategy Arup identify that there are few footpaths in the west Cardiff area except for the disused rail line; they also considered that the boundaries of the surrounding residential estates have not been designed to allow regular or strategic links to be developed.
2.4 Arup summarised the pedestrian infrastructure in the area is as containing a ‘disjointed footway and footpath network, with a lack of interconnectedness between neighbourhoods’.
2.5 Table 1 provides a summary of the standard guidance for acceptable walking distances as contained ‘Providing for Journeys on Foot’ (IHT).
Table 1 Providing for Journeys on Foot – acceptable walking distances
Facilities, Commuting Other shops, bus /School stops etc.
Desirable 200m 500m 400m
Acceptable 400m 1000m 800m
Preferred 800m 2000m 1200m maximum
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2.6 Given the location and size of the proposed development it is reasonable to assume that walking is not going to be a viable modal choice for the vast majority of residents for day to day activities that occur away from the development site itself. Figure 4 illustrates walking distances at five minute intervals from the site. The plan shows that the site is located over 90 minutes walk from Cardiff city centre. A full assessment of the achievable walking distance will need to be undertaken at the master planning stage of the planning application.
Cycling Infrastructure
2.7 The Arup report states that the ‘cycling network in north-west Cardiff is largely comprised of advisory cycle routes. The main exception to this is the Taff Trail which is, for most part, an off-road, forming part of the National Cycle Network’ .
2.8 For the most part, the existing cycle network is not considered to be of a good standard to accommodate the level of cycle trips that could accompany a new development in this area. The Arup report states that;
‘The remaining cycle provision around north-west Cardiff is made up of on- street advisory routes and main road routes, many of which are not sign posted
Many of the on-road routes do not have cycle lanes
The usable road widths are further impacted by kerbside car parking’.
2.9 The Arup report further notes that the area suffers a number of challenges including; a lack of signed on-road routes, infrequent crossings of the River Taff, high traffic speeds on some main routes, road space impacted by kerbside parking and locations on the network where cyclists need to dismount all of which are contradictory to personal safety. Visual inspection indicates that a lot of the routes are subject to poor road conditions which present a potential safety hazard to cyclists.
2.10 National Cycle Network Route 42 (Ely Trail) runs to the south of the development site and use of this route should be promoted.
2.11 The existing cycle infrastructure will need considerable improvements in order to provide a safe and viable options for sustainable travel.
Local highway network
Introduction
2.12 The performance of the local highway network is important for both private vehicular travel and for bus travel.
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2.13 The existing highway network, including strategic and arterial routes and location of local railway stations is included as Figure 3 of this report.
Llantrisant Road
2.14 Cardiff Council highlights the A4119 as the principle route in the area; access to the route is the definition of the ‘north-west transport corridor'. It links Llantrisant with Cardiff City Centre. Between Llantrisant and the urban extent of Cardiff it has the following characteristics:
• Rural in nature;
• Generally subject to 60mph speed limit;
• Relatively little congestion.
2.15 Within the urban extent of Cardiff the nature of the route changes and it takes on the following characteristics:
• Urban road/street;
• Generally 30mph speed limit;
• Numerous minor side roads & private drive accesses;
• Provides direct access to a number of schools, including Bishop of Llandaff where school buses park on the A4119;
• Various controlled pedestrian crossing points including zebras and pelicans.
2.16 The A4119 is single lane single carriageway throughout its length within Cardiff and there are narrow sections for instance in the historic Llandaff area, where the road width is approximately 6m. The ability to widen the road or provide any form of bus lane is severely limited by the urban nature of the route. Llandaf is also designated as a conservation area and as such any improvements to the existing highway network within this area could be severely restricted
2.17 The A4119 is heavily congested with a near continuous queue from the outskirts of Cardiff at the Waterhall Road/Danescourt Way roundabout to the city centre during the AM peak and vice versa in the PM peak. The average speed during the AM and PM peaks is 6mph to 7mph. So congested is the route that in their Movement Strategy Arup identified “a need to upgrade alternative east-west routes to provide relief for Llantrisant Road”.
St Fagans Road / Cardiff Road (B4488)
2.18 An alternative west-east route is St Fagans Road, which runs for approximately 2km from St Fagans to the A48 (Western Avenue). It has the following characteristics:
• Single lane & single carriageway;
• 30mph speed limit;
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• Generally an urban road/street; with residential properties and private drive access.
2.19 There are two key signalised crossroad junctions along the route that experience congestion; the junction with Plas Mawr Road approximately 1km from the edge of the Waterhall site and the junction with the A48 approximately 2km distant. The junction with the A48 in particular suffers significant congestion during peak periods; with continuous queues of approximately 850m experienced during the AM peak.
2.20 The following routes are available at the A48 junction from St Fagans Road:
• East on the A48 (not a logical movement for access to the city centre; but would be logical for destinations to the east and the centre of Cardiff;
• Ahead onto Pencisely Road – a single lane street that eventually links to the A4119 via a signal junction (a logical route to the City Centre);
• Right onto the A48 – a logical route to the City Centre via Cowbridge Road – Lansdowne Road – Atlas Road – Wellington Street. These are single lane single carriageway and experience congestion at key signal junctions.
Michaelston Road – Culverhouse Cross
2.21 This route leads from St Fagans to Culverhouse Cross via The Drope area to the west of Ely. It is currently used as something of a ‘rat run’ between west Cardiff and the PDR due to the lack of a PDR connection in this part of the city. The characteristics of this route are:
• The northern section is a narrow semi-rural route, which traverses through the village of St Fagans;
• A level crossing traverses the route across the south Wales mainline and is reported to be down 23minutes very hour. This results in extensive queuing particularly during peak periods when queues of approximately 400m have been observed;
• From the rail line south for approximately 800m the road takes the form of a narrow rural route with high sided walls, which cause a degree of wall shyness amongst motorists – wide vehicles must stop and wait in passing places;
• For a further 1.2km the road takes an urban form as it leads to the A48 and Culverhouse Cross. Along this section it passes a neighbourhood shopping centre and secondary school, which experiences significant congestion around school opening and closing times;
• Culverhouse Cross Interchange – this is a large grade separated signalised roundabout interchange between the A4124 (PDR), the A48 and the A4050. It experiences high levels of congestion during peak periods.
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Peripheral Distributor Road (PDR)
2.22 Arup’s Movement Strategy states ‘the PDR forms a link from the M4 to Cardiff Bay via north-west Cardiff. Access to the PDR is possible at Junction 33 of the M4 and at Culverhouse Cross. However, due to the relatively low level of intensity of land use in north-west Cardiff, there is presently no direct access to the M4 or PDR from north- west Cardiff’ .
2.23 The PDR also provides a key route for vehicles travelling from areas in southern Rhondda Cynon Taff, including Llantrisant and Talbot Green.
2.24 The route suffers from heavy congestion during peak hour periods, particularly at its junctions with the M4 (Junction 33) and Culverhouse Cross, resulting in significant queuing and delays.
Cowbridge Road West (A48)
2.25 Cowbridge Road West forms a main arterial route in west-Cardiff, providing a link between the PDR and Culverhouse cross to the west with Llantrisant and central Cardiff to the east. The route runs in a north-west to south-east direction.
2.26 The route from Culverhouse cross is predominantly two lanes in either direction and is subject to a number of signal controlled junctions along its entirety. Arup’s Movement Strategy indicates that ‘through Canton, Cowbridge Road is one of Cardiff’s busiest bus corridors’.
2.27 Given the nature of Cowbridge Road West, many junction along its route experience congestion during peak hours, resulting in queuing and delays.
Crofft-y-Genau Road
2.28 Crofft-Y-Genau Road runs centrally through St Fagans, providing a link between Michaelston Road, the A48 and Culverhouse cross to the south and Llantrisant Road and the M4 to the north.
2.29 The road runs centrally through St Fagans and is rural in nature with grass verges and a single lane carriageway.
Pentrebane Road
2.30 Pentrebane Road is a rural road that provides a link between St Brides Road and Crofft-Y- Genau Road to the west to Waterhall Road and Llantrisant to the east. The road is single lane and narrow in nature with grass verges.
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Heol Isaf (B4262)
2.31 Heol Isaf is currently used as something of a through-route for travel between west Cardiff and the M4 and A470 due to the poor strategic highway connectivity in west Cardiff. It provides the only link between the district of Radyr and the wider highway network. It has the following characteristics:
• Single lane & single carriageway;
• 30mph speed limit;
• Pedestrian crossings;
• Numerous side roads and private driveways.
2.32 The route is subject to congestion during peak times at its junctions with Main Road to the west and Llantrisant Road to the east. It also experiences congestion around Kings Road associated with vehicles accessing the train station park and ride; this is operating over- capacity and parking spills over onto the surrounding highway network. The route also experiences significant congestion around Radyr Comprehensive School during school opening and closing times. The school access is approximately 0.5km from the Llantrisant Road junction and during the morning peak queuing has been observed to stretch back onto Llantrisant Road in either direction.
Vehicular Access to the city centre
2.33 The primary route for all vehicles approaching the city centre from the west is via the Castle Street bridge across the River Taff. It provides two lanes in either direction and is dual carriageway. A toucan crossing is provided immediately adjacent to the bridge along with cycling facilities. There are two signal junctions either side of the bridge that experience high levels of congestion during peak periods; similarly the bridge experiences high levels of congestion in peak times. Any re-allocation of road space at this location would have severe implications for congestion in the area.
2.34 The nature of the majority of the roads in north-west Cardiff is single lane with narrow constraints. The extent of single lane roads has been highlighted on Figure 5 .
Bus Infrastructure
2.35 Table 2 details existing bus services in the vicinity of the site along with the estimated peak hour journey time to Central Station as stated by Arup in their Movement Strategy.
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Table 2 Existing bus services in the vicinity of the site
Service No. Route Peak Journey time
33/33A/33B Radyr – Llandaff - Cardiff 56 minutes
60/62/62A Pentrebane – Danescourt – Cardiff 48 minutes
61 Pentrebane – Cardiff 47 minutes
122 (Stagecoach) Tonypandy – Cardiff 47 minutes* * Taken from Stagecoach timetable using Rhydlafar
2.36 The existing peak hour journey times to the Cardiff city centre for services that operate in the vicinity of the site is in the order of 50 minutes. By contrast the estimated peak hour journey time from Pontypridd to Cardiff city centre is 45 minutes (Stagecoach X4).
2.37 The reason for the high bus journey times is the extensive congestion experienced on radial routes in west Cardiff. This is exacerbated by the limited bus priority that is available in west Cardiff, which is limited to:
• A bus lane for approximately 600m towards the city centre on Cowbridge Road West, followed by a bus gate facility at the signal junction with Lansdowne Road;
• A bus lane for approximately 200m outbound towards the site on Cowbridge Road West – (this may not benefit buses travelling to west Cardiff);
• Bus only link from Palace Road to Llantrisant Road at the Llantrisant Road / Western Avenue intersection.
Rail Infrastructure
2.38 The preferred maximum walking distance to Rail Stations as set out in Providing for Journeys on foot is 800m. The only station within this distance of any part of the site is Radyr Railway Station, which is approximately 650m from the northern tip of the site. However the vast majority of the Waterhall site cannot be considered within walking distance of any Railway Station.
2.39 The City Line runs through the western part of Cardiff but does not come within reasonable walking distance of the development site. Arup consider that the City Line provides a poor level of service; there is one train in either direction every 30 minutes.
2.40 The location of the following railway stations is indicated on Figure 2 of this report.
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Radyr Railway Station
2.41 Radyr Rail Station is located to the south east of Radyr and Morganstown and is accessible via a three-arm roundabout with Kings Road and De Clare Drive. The station provides 128 parking spaces open seven days a week enabling people to park and commute into Cardiff city centre.
2.42 Radyr Rail Station is located on both the City Line and the main line to Cardiff Queen Street and therefore experiences a higher service frequency than surrounding railway stations. In Arup’s Movement Strategy report, Arup state;
‘The Valley line trains are often near capacity during the morning peak hour before they reach Radyr, thereby reducing the level of service for passengers using this station. Capacity is largely constrained by the short train lengths – typically 2 car sets’.
2.43 It has been observed that the current park and ride facilities at Radyr railway station are over capacity with overspill parking occurring on the local highway network. The Arup report further supports this, stating that one of the key challenges that will need to be overcome is ‘park and ride capacity issues at Radyr Station’ .
2.44 For passengers travelling from areas located to the north of Cardiff, namely in Rhondda Cynon Taff (RCT), the nearest railway station beyond Radyr is Taff’s Well. In reviewing the current pricing structure it is evident that prices are higher for people commuting from Taff’s Well railway station as opposed to Radyr railway station.
2.45 It is considered that a number of commuters currently travelling from areas located to the north of Radyr and Morganstown into Cardiff currently bypass Taff’s Well railway station to avoid higher rail ticket costs and park and utilise Radyr railway station. This adds further strain to the already over capacity parking arrangements at Radyr railway station.
2.46 As part of government’s key strategy to improve accessibility at railway stations throughout the UK, infrastructure improvements are proposed at Radyr railway station consisting a new footbridge and lift access to all platforms. It is envisaged that the improvements will encourage more visitors to the station, in particular disabled users; however no improvements are proposed to the car park to cater for additional customers.
Danescourt / Fairwater / Waun-Gron Park Railway Stations
2.47 Further railway stations are located within the vicinity of the Waterhall site, including Danescourt, Fairwater and Waun-Gron Park. Each station is located along the same line, and subsequent services, as Radyr railway station.
2.48 There is currently no parking provided at any of the railway stations.
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Technical Advice Note (TAN) 18
2.49 Technical Advice Note 18 Transport (TAN 18) was published by the Welsh Government in March 2007 and is a supplementary document to PPW. The key policy objectives of TAN 18 are:
• Promoting resource and travel efficient settlement patterns; • Ensuring new development is located where there is, or will be, good access by public transport, walking and cycling thereby minimising the need for travel and fostering social inclusion; • Managing parking provision; • Ensuring that new development and major alterations to existing developments include appropriate provision for pedestrians (including those with special access and mobility requirements), cycle, public transport, and traffic management and parking / servicing; • Encourage the location of development near other related uses to encourage multi-purpose trips; • Promote cycling and walking; • Supporting the provision of high quality, inclusive public transport.
2.50 In respect of new ‘accessible housing developments’ TAN 18 identifies that development plans should:
‘Promote housing development at locations with good access by walking and cycling to primary and secondary schools and public transport stops, and by all modes to employment, further and higher education, services, shopping and leisure, or where such access will be provided as part of the scheme or is a firm proposal in the RTP’.
2.51 The report further states that ‘development plans and related SPG should outline the information required in residential applications or design statements to demonstrate appropriate levels of access by walking, cycle and public transport for new residents and the wider community to local services. Developers should be able to demonstrate that;
• the development will facilitate access by new residents to public transport stops, local shops and facilities by walking and cycling;
• new or existing walking and cycling routes provide direct and safe links to public transport stops, local shops and facilities;
• any public transport routes through the development are suitably direct, are of a geometry to avoid obstructions and that any features that give buses priority (e.g. bus gates or bus only routes) are shown;
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• where new public transport facilities or services are proposed, there are effective arrangements for maintaining facilities and funding services (e.g. will an initial or ongoing subsidy be required and how this will be secured);
• the walking, cycling, public transport and car routes through or adjacent to the site are integrated in accordance with expressed principles and in the context of their relationship with parking areas and public recreation spaces.
2.52 In relation to walking, TAN 18 identifies that ‘local authorities should promote walking as the main mode of transport for shorter trips through the use of their transport and planning powers. Consideration should be given to ways in which areas and developments can be made more attractive and safer for pedestrians’ . Local authorities should aim to;
• ensure that new development encourages walking as a prime means for local journeys by giving careful consideration to location, access arrangements and design, including the siting of buildings close to the main footway, public transport stops and pedestrian desire lines;
• ensure that pedestrian routes provide a safe and fully inclusive pedestrian environment, particularly for routes to primary schools;
• ensure the adoption of suitable measures, such as wide pavements, adequate lighting, pedestrian friendly desire lines and road crossings, and traffic calming;
• promote the reallocation of road space to pedestrians;
• consider the needs of all pedestrians in the design of town environmental improvement schemes, which may involve pedestrianisation and restricted access schemes;
• support the use of public rights of way for local journeys; and
• identify and protect existing and proposed routes suitable for the use of cyclists and walkers. These may include recreational or commuter routes alongside river banks, canal towpaths and disused railway lines.
2.53 In relation to cycling, TAN 18 states ‘cycling has potential to act as a substitute for shorter car journeys in urban or rural areas, or form part of a longer journey when combined with public transport’ . Local authorities should aim to encourage cycling through;
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• identification of new cycle routes utilising existing highway (including public rights of way where appropriate), disused railway lines, space alongside rivers and canals, parks and open space
• ensuring that new development encourages cycling by giving careful consideration to location, design, access arrangements, travel ‘desire lines’ through a development, and integration with existing and potential off-site links
• securing provision of secure cycle parking and changing facilities in all major employment developments, including retail and leisure uses, town centres, transport interchanges, educational and health institutions
• securing provision of cycle routes and priority measures in all major developments
• adopting minimum cycle parking standards within their parking strategies - for commercial premises these standards should include cycle parking for both employees and visitors; and
• ensuring new residential developments provide storage for bicycles so they are easily available for everyday use while secure enough to be left unattended for long periods of time.
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3 LDP PREFERRED STRATEGY
Introduction
3.1 This section of the report provides an overview of the LDP Preferred Strategy with particular focus on the Waterhall site.
LDP – Preferred Strategy
3.2 The LDP Preferred Strategy sets out the land use plan over the forthcoming period until 2026. The preferred strategy for the LDP supports growth of 45,400 residential units and the creation of 40,000 jobs. The Waterhall site is allocated for 7,500 residential units plus employment; this is 3,500 residential units more than were proposed by the developer.
3.3 The Waterhall site is considered to reside within the north-west transport corridor, which also includes candidate Strategic Site F (south of Creigiau) and Strategic Site E (north of Junction 33). The LDP states that “all of these sites have direct access to Llantrisant Road (A4119) and therefore share the same transport corridor into/out of Cardiff” .
3.4 The additional number of dwellings allocated in the north-west Cardiff corridor over the plan period is:
• North-west Cardiff – 7,500 units;
• North of Junction 33 – 2,000 units;
• South of Creigiau – 750 units;
• Total – 10,250 units.
3.5 Other strategic residential sites include strategic site G (Pontprennau).
3.6 The main employment growth areas specified in the plan are as follows:
• Cardiff Central Enterprise Zone;
• Roath Basin; and
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3.7 In terms of transport, the plan outlines the aim to secure a modal split of 50% car and 50% non-car modes. They say this will be achieved in a number of ways including:
- Reducing the need to travel through location and design;
- Improvements to public transport;
- Park and Ride/Share Schemes;
- Provision of high quality walking and cycling infrastructure;
- Travel Planning- Widening travel choices to work;
- Improving safety and accessibility for all.
3.8 With regards to the sites to the north of J33 and the south of Creigiau the LDP Preferred Strategy states “due to the relative isolation of the sites, away from the urban area of Cardiff, issues have been identified relating to the ability to achieve effective sustainable transport solutions”. However Cardiff Council considers that they occupy a strategically important location on the north-west Cardiff transport corridor. The LDP Preferred Strategy concedes that “significant infrastructure measures will be required to overcome the potential transportation challenges of this location and help address is existing traffic flows in the north-west corridor” . The LDP Preferred Strategy identifies that the specific transport infrastructure requirements could include:
• Provision of a strategic Park & Ride / share facility accessed from J33 and A4119;
• Development of a segregated / partly segregated public transport corridor utilising the former disused railway line south east of M4 junction 33 in conjunction with the proposed development area west of Pentrebane and through to the city centre;
• Enhanced public transport linkages to areas beyond the county boundary of Cardiff into RCT;
• Major improvements to M4 J33 and Culverhouse Cross Interchange (although access to and from the site off J33 may be restricted to maximise other sustainable travel measures).
3.9 With regards to West Cardiff the LDP Preferred Strategy states that ‘it is recognised that effective sustainable solutions will be required to manage potential movement flows but the strategy proposed to address this is considered an appropriate response’ . Though it is not specified it is assumed that the sustainable transport solutions referred to are the ones contained in the Arup Movement Strategy. No commitment to a Light Rapid
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Transport (LRT) scheme is expressed, although the LDP refers to a segregated / partly segregated public transport corridor.
3.10 The LDP notes that ‘ deliverability is a key test of soundness of the acceptability of the plan’ . It goes on to state that ‘closely linked to this is the capacity of the area to accommodate the additional levels of growth including the timely provision of necessary supporting infrastructure, particularly transportation solutions’ .
3.11 Clearly the authors of the LDP have concerns regarding the capacity of the north-west Cardiff area to accommodate additional growth. In comparison to the north-east Cardiff site, the LDP states “the large strategic site at North West Cardiff offers a similar benefit of a large quantum of development to generate strategic solutions but is considered to require the provision of more significant infrastructure per se, and transportation in particular which will be required ahead of development” .
LDP – Background Technical Paper No.12 - Transportation
3.12 Cardiff Council have produced a more recent report which outlines the Transport Strategy in support of the LDP Preferred Strategy. The report ‘Cardiff LDP – Background Technical Paper No. 12: Transportation Technical Paper (October 2012) explains ‘the technical work supporting the strategy including analysis of existing transport trends, the transport modelling work and candidate site assessment. The paper evidences the need for advanced provision of sustainable transport infrastructure to mitigate the impacts of forecast growth and ensure developments are accessible by sustainable transport’ .
3.13 A review of the LPD Background Technical Paper is provided in Chapter 7 of this report.
LDP – Background Technical Paper No.5 – Summary of Scrutiny Findings
3.14 Cardiff Council Scrutiny Committee has undertaken a review of the LDP Preferred Strategy with an overview provided in ‘A Report of: Policy Review and Performance Scrutiny Committee’.
3.15 The transport proposals for the north-west Cardiff corridor and the west Cardiff site in particular fall well short of what would be anticipated for the level of development in this location given the existing problems and deficiencies.
3.16 The LDP scrutiny committee has obvious fears regarding transport and the west Cardiff proposal. The scrutiny report states that “members explored the cost of building a link road to Llantrisant Road and were advised that there should be an alternative mode of transport, citing bus rapid transport as an option. The group was also made aware that a completely new road link could be built to the east of Fairwater into Waterhall. Funding from CIL and the Welsh Government could help to deliver the project. Members expressed a view that there is no value in a segregated bus corridor for Waterhall as traffic will be encountered once the segregated lane comes to an end. The group was advised that there is provision to protect the corridor of land that
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exists for a train line but this was outside the Plan period. The group was also made aware that the Council would find ways and means of negating pinch points (for example bus to rail transfers)”.
3.17 Clearly the scrutiny committee sees value in providing the link to the PDR that was suggested by Arup as a potential ‘long term’ measure. Similarly, as outlined in the previous section, they see little value in the segregated bus corridor through Waterhall as it simply delivers buses to the back of an existing queue. The advice that this route could be protected for use as a train line, but that this would be outside the Plan period also calls into question the deliverability of the West Cardiff site during the Plan period.
3.18 Such is the Scrutiny Committees disquiet given the transport proposals at west Cardiff, members discussed at numerous times and at length the potential use of tram trains or heavy rail on the disused line to Creigiau. In particular it is noted that “developer contributions could help to achieve the tram-train vision from the strategic site developments such as Waterhall in west Cardiff. The members were advised that the reopening of the line or the introduction of tram trains were unlikely in the short term; with a time horizon past 2024 at least stated for the re-opening of the line” .
3.19 Overall the fears of the scrutiny committee are such that the report states that members “explored whether the LDP could be refused on transport issues and heard that in the coming months Cardiff Council would have to resolve such questions”.
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4 COMMITTED DEVELOPMENTS
Introduction
4.1 The LDP Preferred Strategy sets out the land use plan over the forthcoming period, but in the interim there are two developments that have, or are likely to; receive planning permission before the document is adopted. They are the St Fagans National History Museum extension and the Ely Bridge development; a summary of the transport issues associated with these developments is contained herein.
St Fagans National History Museum
4.2 A planning application has been submitted for proposals to redevelop St Fagans National History Museum. The proposals comprise;
• Refurbishment of the main museum building;
• Provision of a new gallery building;
• Provision of an experimental archaeological area, with educational facilities encompassing a range of activities and extracts;
• Internal footpath realignment; and,
• Improvements to car and coach parking arrangements.
4.3 The proposals will see projected visitor growth reach 850,000 visitors a year from the existing 600,000 visitor numbers.
Ely Bridge
4.4 A planning application for the Ely Bridge development has been submitted. It proposes a total of 816 residential units, 1,750m 2 office space, 2,216m 2 doctors surgery, 600m 2 food store and 430m 2 pub/coffee shop.
4.5 With regards to Cowbridge Road East (Canton) Arup state it is “one of Cardiff’s key local centres and has a number of retail units, which creates a busy vibrant street with the associated effects of vehicle parking, loading and unloading.” Unsurprisingly then, Arup considers that the majority of vehicles travelling to and from the city centre use the Broad Street / Grosvenor Street / Lansdowne Road route.
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4.6 They included the following committed developments:
• Ely Farm – 56 units;
• Leckwith Travelodge – 72 room hotel;
• Treganna School – 630 space primary school & 40 place nursery.
4.7 The elevated section of Cowbridge Road West between Station Terrace and Ely Bridge has been designated as an Air Quality Management Area (AQMA), the primary reason being vehicle emissions.
4.8 Following development the Ely Bridge roundabout is shown to be significantly over-capacity with queues of 207 pcu’s during the AM peak.
Rhondda Cynon Taf – LDP allocations
4.9 Rhondda Cynon Taf LDP provides the framework for decisions to be made up until 2021 on how land is used in the County Borough, for example what type of development is appropriate or desirable and how best to protect their environment.
4.10 The LDP outlines housing and employment requirements in line with government legislation for the period up until 2021. These consist of 14,385 housing units and approximately 51 hectares of land allocated for employment use.
4.11 In order to accommodate the required level of housing and employment, the LDP allocates a number of strategic and non-strategic sites for development. Each site is located within the boundary of Rhondda Cynon Taf. It is evident from the LDP proposals maps that a number of the allocated sites would lie within the southern region of Rhondda Cynon Taf. These include Pontypridd, Llantrisant (including Talbot Green), Tonyrefail and Llanharan.
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5 ARUP’S MOVEMENT STRATEGY
5.1 Arup produced a Movement Strategy for the Waterhall site on behalf of the developer Plymouth Estates. This report was provided as a transport submission to support the inclusion of West Cardiff in the LDP for an allocation of 4,000 houses, which is 3,500 less than the allocation contained in the LDP Preferred Strategy.
5.2 The transport infrastructure improvements that the Movement Strategy commits to are:
• Bus lanes on the A48 Western Avenue between St Fagans Road and Ely Bridge (approximately 300m in either direction);
• Bus priority at the St Fagans Road / Plas Mawr and St Fagans Road / Western Avenue signal junctions;
• New interchange facility on Cartwright Lane;
• A bus connection along Heol Isaf within 150m of the A4119;
• To provide local pedestrian & cycle improvements.
5.3 The improvements detailed above are illustrated on Figure 7 .
5.4 These limited improvements are unlikely to significantly improve accessibility. Bus priority measures only provide a benefit once the bus reaches them. During the AM peak a queue of approximately 850m is observed on approach to the St Fagans / Western Avenue signal junction, which will be exacerbated by a development of 7,500 houses close-by. St Fagans Road is single lane single carriageway and there is no viable means of reallocating road space; buses must wait in a large queue. Similarly the routes into the city centre after the bus priority are single lane single carriageway and subject to congestion.
5.5 Other issues raised by these proposals are as follows:
• Any re-allocation of road space to buses inevitably reduces road space for private cars increasing congestion; the length of bus lanes is limited and buses therefore have to travel through this congestion for the majority of their journey – some of the benefits of the bus lane are lost in increased journey times due to the congestion they cause;
• Similarly bus priority at a signal junction provides increased green time where a bus is identified increasing waiting times for other traffic. At the Plas Mawr junction buses presently utilise several arms of the junction; any priority
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afforded to a bus in one stream would increase the journey time for a bus in another stream;
• The A48 Western Avenue is considered to be a strategic east west route, the proposals will reduce this to 1 lane for a section and reduce vehicular priority at a busy signal junction.
5.6 It is proposed that following existing services be extended into the site:
• 33;
• 24/25;
• 61;
• 60/62;
• Stagecoach 122.
5.7 These bus services all ready have journey times in the order of 50 minutes between the vicinity of the site and the city Centre. These existing journey times are not attractive for travel within a medium sized city and are likely to increase in order to access the development site.
5.8 Three new bus services are proposed:
• Waterhall – city centre;
• St Fagans – Morganstown – Waterhall circular;
• Waterhall – Radyr shuttle bus (connection to Radyr Station).
5.9 The vast majority of the development site is beyond walking distance of a train station. A shuttle bus service is proposed to connect with Radyr station. Providing a bus to take people to a sub-urban rail station to travel within a medium sized city does not appear to be a particularly attractive option. The shuttle bus will travel along Heol Isaf to Radyr station; Heol Isaf can become very congested at times as it provides the main link between north-west Cardiff and the M4 / A470. It becomes particularly congested adjacent to Radyr Comprehensive School during school opening and closing times. The proposed priority would at best expedite the bus to the middle of this congestion. Congestion is also experienced in the vicinity of Radyr Rail Station where parking spills over on to the surrounding highway network.
5.10 The congestion, which will be exacerbated by the LDP allocations, will increase journey times for the shuttle bus and reduce journey time reliability making it unlikely that buses will arrive in unison with rail services. Arup acknowledge that the park and ride at Radyr is over- capacity, as are the trains that run on this line, however no improvements are suggested.
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5.11 The main transport improvements associated with the proposed development of 4,000 houses and employment uses in one of the most congested and least public transport accessible parts of Cardiff is essentially limited to two small sections of bus lane, bus priority at two signal junctions and a shuttle bus to a suburban rail station. This is inadequate for 4,000 residential units let alone the 7,500 now proposed, with a further 2,750 along the same transport corridor.
5.12 Arup appear to accept this by including potential long term schemes in the Movement Strategy. In terms of allocation into the LDP it is questionable to undertake this on the proviso of potential transport schemes given the accepted view by both Arup and Cardiff Council that necessary transport infrastructure must be provided from the outset.
5.13 The two potential long term schemes are:
• A light rapid transit (LRT) scheme along a disused rail line;
• A grade separated highway connection to the PDR.
5.14 The potential LRT scheme is based around a now disused rail line between the Llantrisant area and the Fairwater district. It formerly linked to the City Line but in the intervening period residential properties have been constructed along Fairwood Road and Kirton Close and as a result the disused line now terminates approximately 200m short of the City Line.
5.15 The LRT envisaged by Arup is guided bus, which is the cheapest of the systems available. The proposal is to convert the City Line to guided bus from Pwllmellin Road to Leckwith Road. Arup state that this would “be dependent on the cessation of freight and passenger services on the City Line and the removal of the twin tracks” .
5.16 A study into the LRT for Cardiff was undertaken by TRL and is quoted by Arup. They considered use of the City Line for parallel running or conversion to light rail. They consulted the Strategic Rail Authority, SEWTA and Arriva Trains and say that it became apparent that the City Line is seen by all to be a strategically important freight route and route for additional passenger transport. They concluded that any increase in even light rail on this route would be met with resistance from rail authorities and train operators alike. Having previously stated opposition to parallel running it seems unlikely that the rail authorities would now be open to the complete removal of the City Line, particularly as the route is earmarked for electrification in 2018. In addition the proposed scheme would need to link with roads at Pwllmellin Road and Leckwith Road that are at significantly different levels to the City Line. The viability of the scheme in terms of cost, engineering and practicality is therefore questionable.
5.17 Again Arup appear to accept this stating that introduction of the LRT “requires collaboration and commitment from a number of third parties” and noting that the LRT would be “dependent on a number of factors – economic, social and environmental and requires support from a number of key stakeholders”.
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5.18 Without use of the City Line the disused rail line suffers from similar problems to the bus priority already suggested; the segregated route would simply deliver buses to the back of a queue on Pwllmellin Road, which joins a bigger queue on Llantrisant Road. Notably, elsewhere in the document Arup suggest the disused rail line could be used as a walk/cycle path.
5.19 In practice it seems highly unlikely that the LRT system suggested by Arup would ever be introduced. The fact that Arup considered it necessary to include such an unlikely scheme in their Movement Strategy outlines the paucity of the accessibility options without it.
5.20 Indeed light rail was considered in the Cardiff Council Local Transport Plan (2000) (now replaced by the SEWTA RTP) and the following statement was made: “Because of restricted highway capacity, further large-scale urban expansion to the immediate west of the City is likely to be dependent on the provision of a new branch from the City Line using this technology” .
5.21 A potential grade-separated connection between the west Cardiff site and the PDR is suggested. It is an obvious highway mitigation scheme for the site as the area lacks connections to the strategic highway network including the M4 as well as the PDR. Arup state that the connection to a grade separated junction could be provided entirely on land under the developer’s control. Such a connection would undoubtedly alleviate pressure on the existing radial routes in the area, improving bus journey times and potentially allowing for the additional re-allocation of road space.
5.22 The conclusion of the Movement Strategy states that “it is recognised that the scale of development that can be accommodated in Waterhall depends on several factors including the mode share, trip generation rates, trip distributions and acceptable congestion levels” .
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6 IMPACT OF LDP PREFERRED STRATEGY AND COMMITTED DEVELOPMENTS
Introduction
6.1 This section of the report takes into consideration the LDP proposals for the Waterhall site and the additional allocated and committed developments and provides an analysis of the potential impact on local infrastructure, including pedestrian, cycle and road networks.
Pedestrian Infrastructure
6.2 A review of the existing pedestrian infrastructure within north-west Cardiff is provided within Chapter 2 of this report. The review refers to Arup’s Movement Strategy report which identifies that the existing pedestrian infrastructure is of poor quality with a lack of interconnectedness between neighbourhoods and has limited scope for improvements.
6.3 The main aim of the LDP Preferred Strategy is to ‘achieve a 50:50 split between car- based and non car-based travel’ . In reviewing the LDP Background Technical Paper No.12, the report states ‘it is essential that sustainable transport is provided in advance of developments and available from first date that they become occupational or operational’ .
6.4 The LDP Background Technical Paper No.12 provides Census data of modes of travel to work in Cardiff, and identifies that approximately 10% to 15% of journeys are undertaken by foot.
6.5 It is envisaged that the predominant economic draw for residents of the site will be Cardiff city centre. Given the location of the proposals, being over 5km to the west of Cardiff city centre, it is not envisaged that 10% to 15% of journeys will be undertaken on foot to this destination. This is further compounded by the fact that the existing pedestrian infrastructure is not designed to cater for large volumes of pedestrians movements, and the fact that any improvements would be difficult to achieve in reality.
6.6 In respect of guidance ‘Providing for Journeys on Foot’ it is evident that most of the site does not lie within the desirable walking distance of 800m to local facilities, in particular Radyr railway station. Given the distance and attractiveness of the existing pedestrian infrastructure, it is considered that the level of pedestrian movements will be some-what limited for further destinations.
6.7 Arup’s Movement Strategy identifies that improvements will be made to enhance pedestrian connections between the Waterhall site and the surrounding highway network. However, it is not evident of the exact extent of these proposals, whether they can be implemented on first occupation of the site, or whether they fully comply with TAN 18 guidelines.
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6.8 Routes including Crofft-y-Genau and Pentrebane Road are rural in nature and consist of narrow carriageways, and grass verges. It is not envisaged that pedestrian improvements could be made along these routes without significant construction work, and provision of land to undertake works. These routes are not sustainable.
Cycling Infrastructure
6.9 In Arup’s Movement Strategy it is evident that the existing cycle infrastructure in north-west Cardiff is considered to be of poor standard with limited on-road cycle lane facilities and poor signage.
6.10 In reviewing census data for Cardiff ‘modes of travel to work’ (as provided within LDP Background Technical Paper No.12) it is evident that less than 5% of trips are undertaken via bicycle. Given the high speeds and rural nature of a lot of the roads in the vicinity of the site, any improvements to the existing cycle infrastructure would be difficult to implement and could inevitably require significant contributions from the developer.
6.11 If the cycle routes and associated facilities were to be improved, evidence that the number of trips undertaken via bicycle will increase is yet to be proven.
6.12 Arup’s Movement Strategy also identifies that improvements will be made to enhance cycle connections between the Waterhall site and the surrounding areas. Again the proposals detailed within Arup’s report are vague and as such it is unclear to whether these improvements will be achievable and if so whether they fully comply with TAN 18.
Local Highway Network
Traffic Attraction
6.13 In their Movement Strategy Arup state that the vehicle trip rates for the proposed site will be lower than in traditional residential developments due to the mix of uses, new employment, and the provision of walking, cycling and public transport routes. Indeed the co-location of employment and residential is suggested by Arup as a key means of reducing journeys. This ignores the myriad of reasons a person chooses to live in an area.
6.14 Census data has been reviewed for two wards in Cardiff that contain large employment sites, namely Llanishen which includes the large Parc Ty Glas trading estate, the tax office, Llanishen High School, a leisure centre and a large supermarket and Pontprennau, which contains Cardiff Gate Business Park, Cardiff Retail Park and a large supermarket. This revealed that amongst those that travel for work just 15% and 8% respectively live within those wards. It is difficult to see how the proposed development would be able to improve on the 15% at Llanishen given the extensive employment uses co-located within that ward.
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6.15 Whilst the walking, cycling and public transport facilities that could be provided within the development may be of a good standard, a review of the proposed off-site connections particularly for public transport reveals that they are not particularly good. There is no obvious reason to reduce traffic attraction for a development that will be served by extensions to bus routes with long journey times and by a rapid bus route that expedites buses to the back of a queue.
6.16 Indeed census data for the 3 neighbouring wards shows that the modal split for this part of Cardiff is currently 65% as the driver of a car; compared to 57% for the rest of Cardiff. It is unsurprising that residents that live further from the main employment districts of the city have a higher modal share towards the car.
6.17 An estimate of the level of traffic that would normally be expected for the proposed quantum of housing set out in the LDP has been estimated using the industry standard TRICS database. The TRICS database utilises survey data from a varied selection of sites and provides an average trip rate per dwelling. This can then be multiplied up by the number of projected dwellings in order to determine the likely number of vehicular arrivals, departures and total trips.
6.18 A summary of the full traffic attraction estimate is contained in Table 3 .
Table 3: Total Residential Traffic Attraction
Arrivals Departures Total
TRICS derived trip 0.155 0.457 0.612 rate
AM (0800- Waterhall (7,500 0900) 1,163 3,428 4,590 units)
NW Corridor 1,589 4,684 6,273 (10,250 units)
TRICS derived trip 0.426 0.250 0.676 rate
PM (1700- Waterhall (7,500 1800) 3,195 1,875 5,070 units)
NW Corridor 4,367 2,563 6,929 (10,250 units)
6.19 Due to a lack of large strategic sites within the TRICS database it is likely that this traffic attraction includes local trips that might not travel on the wider highway network. In Appendix B of the LDP entitled ‘Cardiff Context’ it states that approximately 25% of car journeys are less than 2km. To ensure the traffic attraction prediction is reasonably realistic in terms of the impact off-site the prediction will be reduced by 25%. The prediction will be reduced by a further 15% to account for internal employment trips, etc; this is considered to
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provide a conservative traffic generation prediction as a reduction has already been made for local trips and people who work close to their residence are more likely to walk and hence will not have been counted in any traffic prediction. The revised trip rates are therefore illustrated in Table 4.
Table 4: Residential Traffic Attraction with reductions
Arrivals Departures Total
Waterhall (7,500 698 2,057 4,590 AM (0800- units) 0900) NW Corridor 953 2,810 6,273 (10,250 units)
Waterhall (7,500 1,917 1,125 3,042 units) PM (1700- 1800) NW Corridor 2,620 1,538 4,157 (10,250 units)
6.20 In addition the Waterhall site proposes employment uses, however no specific detail is provided on the quantum of employment proposed, although Arup’s Movement Strategy suggested employment for 3,000 persons. As per most employment sites traffic attraction numbers are generally high and often conflict with peak traffic periods on the local highway network. Given the scale of the development, it is envisaged that a number of employment trips will reside from the housing provided on-site however there could still be a significant number of trips resulting from local areas that could impact on the local highway network.
Additional traffic attraction
Allocated LDP sites
6.21 As detailed in Chapter 3 of this report, sites located north of Junction 33 of the M4 and south of Creigiau have also been allocated for development as part of the LDP Preferred Strategy. The sites comprise 2,000 and 750 residential units, respectively.
6.22 In respect of traffic attraction calculations undertaken for the west of Cardiff development (Table 4), it is considered that traffic attraction of the two sites combined could equate to 426 vehicle arrivals during the AM peak and 1172 vehicle arrivals during the PM peak.
6.23 As detailed within the LDP Preferred Strategy, each of these sites has access to Llantrisant Road and therefore shares the same transport corridor into/out of Cardiff. Llantrisant Road is already heavily congested with long queues and delays experienced. The addition of development traffic associated with the allocated sites at J33 and Creigiau will only exacerbate this problem.
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6.24 In addition to the west of Cardiff allocated site, it is envisaged that a significant proportion of trips from the J33 and Creigiau sites will utilise the A470 to travel to destinations located north of Cardiff, in particular Rhondda Cynon Taf. It is considered that this will add further pressure to already congested routes including Heol Isaf and Ynys Bridge.
Committed developments
6.25 Planning applications have been submitted for the redevelopment of St Fagans National History Museum and a residential development located at Ely Bridge. It is considered that each of the developments will attract additional vehicular trips onto the local highway network.
6.26 In conjunction with the St Fagans proposals, Arup produced a Transport Assessment (dated 2 March 2012). The TA provides an analysis of potential traffic attraction associated with the proposals and outlines potential distribution patterns. It is evident from the report that the site could attract an additional 73 two-way vehicle movements during the peak hour, of which 59% are expected to utilise the A4232, 11% Michaelston Road and 22% Cardiff Road.
6.27 A detailed analysis has been undertaken by Arup of the busiest months (April to August) for visitors to the St Fagans Museum. The results indicate that in the current situation, the majority of weekdays had a demand of up to 500 vehicles per day, weekends over 500 vehicles, 19 days where over 1,000 vehicles visited the site and 4 days where in excess of 1,500 vehicles visited the site. The report further identifies the likely number of vehicle trips following expansion. For August peak period’s vehicle trips could reach 1,750, whilst for April peak periods, especially around the Bank Holiday period vehicle trips could reach 2,500. This is considered to be a considerable increase over the existing situation, thus adding further traffic onto the highway network.
6.28 Arup have also produced a TA for the proposed development at Ely Bridge, Cardiff. The TA identifies traffic attraction figures and distribution patterns. The development proposals could attract a total of 424 two-way vehicle movements during the AM peak and 507 two-way vehicle movements during the PM peak. The TA considers various methods of distributing traffic, but agrees upon utilising travel patterns of an adjacent housing development.
6.29 When considering the two developments simultaneously, it is evident that a significant number of additional vehicular trips will be added to an already heavily congested highway network, which is expected to further exacerbate the problem of queuing and delays.
RCT LDP allocations
6.30 RCT have also produced a Local Development Plan similar to that of Cardiff, which allocates a number of strategic sites for future development. A number of the sites are located within the southern region of RCT, including Llantrisant and Llanharan. It is considered that a large percentage of residents of Llantrisant and Llanharan will work within Cardiff and therefore commute on a daily basis.
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6.31 Given the location of the site, the main route to Cardiff would be along the north-west corridor, in particular Llantrisant Road (A4119). Vehicles would also utilise the PDR to access areas within Cardiff Bay. Given that Llantrisant Road is already severely congested, the addition of traffic associated with the RCT allocations will have a further detrimental effect on capacity and highway safety.
Distribution
6.32 A review of existing Census data for the neighbouring wards of Fairwater, St Fagans/ Creigiau and Radyr and Morganstown shows that whilst a large proportion of workers will be expected to travel to work in Cardiff city centre and Cardiff Bay, there are also large movements expected towards the strategic road network of the M4 and the A470. The number of vehicular movements eastwards on Western Avenue are also likely to be relatively large as residents travel to key employment sites such as the Heath Hospital and St Mellons.
6.33 Cardiff city Centre is a designated employment growth site (special area status) and the plan outlines St Mellons for significant employment growth. It is highly likely that employment in these areas will rise significantly over the plan period.
Impacts on local routes
Llantrisant Road and Cowbridge Road West
6.34 Llantrisant Road and Cowbridge Road West are described by Arup’s Movement Strategy as ‘forming main/arterial routes servicing north-west Cardiff. However the street patterns reflect the historical rural land use in the area with narrow roads that do not cater well for cyclists, pedestrians or public transport’.
6.35 The Arup report outlines the key challenges facing the existing road network in north-west Cardiff as being;
• A course arterial road network servicing north-west Cardiff, particularly in the north-south direction;
• Limited access to the motorway and trunk road network;
• Peak hour congestion at Junction 33, Culverhouse Cross and Llantrisant Road (particularly the junction with Bridge Road); and
• A need to upgrade alternative east-west routes to provide relief for Llantrisant Road.
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6.36 In respect of Arup’s Movement Strategy review of Llantrisant Road and Cowbridge Road West, the addition of development traffic associated with the Waterhall site onto either route will have a considerable negative impact and will need to be mitigated against prior to development commencing.
Crofft-y-Genau Road and Pentrebane Road
6.37 Arup’s Movement Strategy identifies Crofft-y-Genau and Pentrebane Road as ‘key roads servicing north-west Cardiff’ .
6.38 As per Llantrisant Road and Cowbridge Road West, the addition of development traffic associated with the Waterhall site will have a significant negative impact on the capacity and resultant journey times along these routes. This would further be exacerbated by rural nature of Crofft-y-Genau Road and Pentrebane Road.
6.39 Even before traffic impact is considered from the Waterhall site, further thought must be given to the impacts of committed development traffic associated with St Fagans National History Museum on these local routes.
Peripheral Distributor Road (PDR)
6.40 As part of the LDP Preferred Strategy proposals have been outlined to provide a link to the PDR via a new grade separated interchange at St Fagans. However, the Arup Movement Strategy details that a ‘detailed capacity assessment will need to be undertaken in the future to quantify the level of trip making and impacts on existing network’ . It is therefore considered that this option may not be viable given the already congested state of the highway network in the vicinity of the Waterhall site.
6.41 As detailed in Chapter 2 of this report, Cowbridge Road West is currently subject to heavy congestion and delays. Arup’s Movement Strategy details that ‘north-west Cardiff experiences congestion issues, predominantly at key interchanges such as Culverhouse cross and Junction 33’ .
6.42 The proposals to provide a link to the PDR would not come into effect until the later stages of development (2026). In the short to medium term, additional traffic generated by the Waterhall proposals will be distributed onto the local highway network thus worsening existing issues of congestion, delays and road safety.
Heol Isaf (B4262)
6.43 Heol Isaf runs centrally through Radyr and Morganstown and provides a strategic link for traffic travelling between areas in west and north-west Cardiff and the A470 and M4. As detailed within Chapter 2 , the route is currently subject to heavy congestion is considered to operate at or near capacity during peak periods of traffic.
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6.44 Additional traffic associated with the Waterhall site, Ely Bridge development proposals and allocated sites at J33 and south Creigiau, will only exacerbate the existing problems of congestion and queuing along Heol Isaf, which will inevitably have a detrimental effect on highway safety.
Extent of Congested Routes
6.45 It is evident from above that the impact of the development proposals in north-west Cardiff will have a significant impact on already congested routes including Llantrisant Road and St Fagans Road. Further to a site study, a plan has been produced which illustrates the extent of this congestion. This is included as Figure 6 .
Rail Infrastructure
6.46 The main aim of the LDP Preferred Strategy is to ‘achieve a 50:50 split between car- based and non car-based travel’ . A review of Census data for modes of travel to work in Cardiff indicates that approximately two percent of all persons who work in Cardiff currently travel to work by train; this is considered to be a low in comparison to other modes of travel throughout Cardiff.
6.47 As detailed within Chapter 2 of this report the nearest railway station located within the desirable walking distance of 800m of the site is Radyr station. At present it is evident that the station and associated park and ride facilities are operating at or above capacity. This is supported by Arup’s Movement Strategy.
6.48 The promotion of sustainable travel within the LDP Preferred Strategy will only exacerbate the existing capacity and parking issues at Radyr Station. The existing pedestrian and cycle infrastructure is deemed to be of poor quality in the vicinity of the development site, it is therefore considered that most trips to Radyr station will be undertaken by car. Any increase in vehicular traffic at Radyr station would be detrimental to highway safety on local routes.
6.49 As detailed within Chapter 5 of this report, the proposals could include the provision of a shuttle bus that would run between the site and Radyr station, via Heol Isaf. This would be aimed at alleviating the numbers of car borne trips. Given the congested nature of the existing highway network, and potential delays that could be experienced via this service, it is not envisaged that rail users would opt to use this mode of travel to commute to Radyr station on a daily basis.
6.50 The lack of parking provision at Danescourt, Fairwater and Waun-Gron Park railways stations only allows for journeys via foot, cycle and public transport. Given the poor quality of the existing pedestrian and cycle infrastructure, and congested public transport network, it is not envisaged that these will be attractive alternatives to private car journeys for residents of the Waterhall site.
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7 LDP: BACKGROUND TECHNICAL PAPER NO. 12 – TRANSPORTATION
7.1 The report ‘Cardiff LDP – Background Technical Paper No. 12: Transportation Technical Paper (October 2012) outlines the Transport Strategy in support of the LDP Preferred Strategy. The report identifies Cardiff’s transport vision;
‘A world class, integrated transport system that offers safe, efficient, and sustainable travel for all, and where public transport, walking and cycling provide real and desirable alternatives to car travel’.
7.2 The report further states ‘the Transport Strategy to support delivery of the LDP embraces this vision and responds to the challenges associated with new development by setting out an approach aimed at minimising car travel, maximising access by sustainable transportation and improving connectivity between Cardiff and the wider region’ .
7.3 Cardiff Council have undertaken a transport model of Cardiff which assesses the overall impact of the Preferred Strategy development sites on the highway network. The results of the modelling were based upon AM and PM peak periods and assume a 25% increase in housing and a 20% increase in jobs associated with the LDP proposals. The key findings of the modelling were;
• The demand for travel by car would increase by 41%;
• 10% of new demand would be unable to travel on the highway network due to lack of capacity so there would be a 32% net increase in traffic;
• Average journey speeds would decrease; and
• Journey times would increase by approximately 41% or 7 minutes (average).
7.4 It is evident from the modelling results that the existing highway network would require considerable mitigation in order to accommodate the level of traffic that could be associated with the development proposals. At present the existing highway network is not deemed sufficient to cater for an increase in residential dwellings from 4000 (as originally proposed) to 7,500.
7.5 As a result of the modelling chapter 3.2 of the report identifies a number of issues which have major implications for the LDP Preferred Strategy. These consist;
• Cardiff’s key corridors are currently operating at or close to capacity;
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• Strategic corridors would be significantly congested in the peak periods with an average 41% increase in vehicle travel times for journeys within Cardiff;
• Projected development would result in a 41% increase in vehicle demand;
• 10% of the vehicle demand generated by new development could not be assigned to the modelled network due to network congestion;
• There would therefore be a 32% net increase in traffic;
• Forecast growth in vehicle trips will increase congestion, reducing the average journey speeds from approximately 13mph in 2010 to 11mph in 2026;
• Journey times would increase by approximately 41% from an average of approximately 17 minutes to 24 minutes.
7.6 The report identifies that the transport model was used to ‘test the impact of a 50:50 car:sustainable travel mode split (of which 33% were car drivers and 17% car passenger – an average car occupancy of 1.5)’ . The assumption that average car occupancy of 1.5 is considered to be irrelevant, and in reality the modal split should be based on car drivers. For journeys to work, drivers constitute 57% of all trips, so in comparison to this the LDP Preferred Strategy will require a reduction in car drivers of approximately 24%. This is deemed to be very ambitious and difficult to achieve.
7.7 In summary, ‘the modelling results and candidate site assessments have shown that all the major development sites will need to be supported by significant new transport infrastructure and improvements to existing transport facilities. It is essential that sustainable transport is provided in advance of developments and available from the first date that they become occupied or operational’ . The proposals in west Cardiff do not include any physical measures to improve the local highway network from the offset which therefore contradicts this statement.
7.8 In relation to the Waterhall site the report identifies that there are a number of constraints to providing a rapid and direct transport connection to Cardiff city centre and Cardiff Bay areas.
7.9 In summary the report identifies that the existing highway network would require significant improvement in order to cater for additional traffic associated with proposals for 7,500 houses in the west of Cardiff. The report indicates that these improvements would need to be implemented from the off-set in order to see the benefits for future years. This is not however the case. The Arup Movement Strategy indicates that many of the improvements will not be implemented until the mid – long term period, this include a link to the PDR (which is envisaged to be implemented in 2026).
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8 CONCLUSIONS
Summary
8.1 In light of Cardiff Council’s Local Development Plan Preferred Strategy proposals to provide 7,500 homes, employment use and associated facilities at Waterhall located in west Cardiff, this Transport Appraisal has been undertaken in order to assess the feasibility and impact of the proposals on the local pedestrian, cycle, public transport and highway network.
8.2 In respect of the Local and National Policy guidance and third-party supporting documents, this report identifies a number of key issues that will need to be addressed in order to accommodate the proposals. These include;
• The existing pedestrian infrastructure in north-west Cardiff is deemed to be of poor quality, with disjointed footway, footpath and public rights of way links that provide little connectivity between neighbourhoods;
• The existing cycle network suffers a number of challenges and will need considerable improvements in order to provide a safe and viable option for sustainable travel;
• The Waterhall site is located over 5km from major employment areas including Cardiff city centre, Cardiff Bay and St Mellons. Given the distance, it is envisaged that the majority of trips to these destinations will be undertaken via car;
• An assessment of the local highway network indicates significant congestion and queuing issues along major routes, including Culverhouse cross, Llantrisant Road, Heol Isaf, Cowbridge Road West, St Fagans and Michaelston Road. Minor routes that are also congested include Crofft-y- Genau Road and Pentrebane Road;
• The PDR forms a key route between the M4 and Cardiff Bay. The route suffers from heavy congestion during peak hour periods, particularly at its junctions with the M4 (Junction 33) and Culverhouse Cross, resulting in significant queuing and delays;
• There are currently no connections from the Waterhall site to the strategic highway network, such as the PDR or M4 in north-west Cardiff;
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• Estimated bus service journey times from north-west Cardiff to the city centre exceed 45 minutes. The lengthy times are attributed to congested radial routes and limited available bus priority. All of the key routes in the area are single lane and single carriageway with significant sections of constrained road width, which negate the possibility of reallocating road space for buses;
• The nearest railway station to the Waterhall site is Radyr station. This is located outside of the desired walking distance of 800m for most part of the Waterhall site. Radyr station experiences significant vehicular congestion due to limited parking facilities, and near capacity train journeys due to limited services;
• The lack of parking provision at Danescourt, Fairwater and Waun-Gron Park railways stations only allows for journeys via foot, cycle and public transport. Given the poor quality of the existing pedestrian and cycle infrastructure, and congested public transport network, it is not envisaged that these will be attractive alternatives to private car journeys for residents of the Waterhall site;
• The LDP Preferred Strategy outlines a number of additional sites for redevelopment, including land located North of Junction 33 and South of Creigiau. Similarly, north of Cardiff, RCT LDP allocates a number of sites for development. The additional traffic generated from each of the allocated sites, as mentioned above, and committed developments in west Cardiff will add significant pressure on the north-west transport corridor and local highway network in north-west Cardiff;
• The impact of the LDP proposals for the Waterhall Site, RCT LDP allocations and west of Cardiff committed development sites on the existing pedestrian, cycle and road infrastructure has been considered. Despite their scale and location, being situated along the north-west corridor, these schemes are supported by very limited transport infrastructure improvements;
• The LDP Background Technical Paper No.5 – Summary of Scrutiny Findings indicate the transport infrastructure proposed for west Cardiff is not sufficient to support the development. The report promotes the segregated former railway line as a key piece of infrastructure; however with no connection to the City Line, this appears to be a unrealistic possibility over the plan period. Using the route for buses without this connection is of no benefit as recognised by the Scrutiny Committee as the buses will simply join the back of a queue;
• It is considered that both the PDR connection and a form of rapid transit linked to the City Line would be required to make the NW Cardiff allocation feasible in transport terms;
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• Arup’s Movement Strategy provides an overview of the transport infrastructure improvements proposed in conjunction with the LDP Preferred Strategy. The improvements include an extension to existing bus routes and piecemeal improvements to bus priority. As a whole the improvements are considered limited and unlikely to significantly improve access;
• Arup suggested two long-term potential transport schemes that might be required; an LRT using a disused rail line that they suggest would be bus based and a grade separated connection to the PDR. It is unlikely that either of the schemes will be implemented in the short to medium-term, prior to first occupation of the site;
• The impact of the LDP proposals for the Waterhall Site, RCT LDP allocations and west of Cardiff committed development sites on the existing pedestrian, cycle and road infrastructure has been considered;
• The existing pedestrian and cycle infrastructure will require significant improvements in order to cater for additional pedestrian and cycle movements. It is not evident whether the required improvements can be achieved and if so over what time frame or cost.
• The routes in the vicinity of St Fagans are not deemed sustainable or pedestrian and cycle use and lack space for improvements;
• The pedestrian and cycle infrastructure does not comply with TAN 18 requirements;
• Traffic attraction calculations indicate that the Waterhall site alone will attract up to an additional 4,500 vehicle movements during the peak hour. This does not take into account proposed employment uses on-site. This level of traffic will have a significant negative impact on an already congested network, which could inevitably result in grid-lock at peak periods;
• A number of local routes will be significantly affected by the addition of development traffic, in particular Heol Isaf and Ynys Bridge. It is considered that these routes will bear the brunt of traffic travelling north to the A470;
• Radyr railway station will experience a significant rise in passengers associated with the Waterhall site. Given the poor pedestrian and cycle links from the Waterhall site the majority of these will arrive by car. This will exacerbate the issue of lack of parking and hence present a further safety issue with regard to vehicles parking on the local highway network;
• The provision of a shuttle bus between the Waterhall site and Radyr railway station is not deemed sufficient to distract from additional vehicle trips. Given the congested nature of the existing highway network, and potential delays
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that could be experienced via this service, it is not envisaged that rail users would opt to use this mode of travel to commute to Radyr station on a daily basis;
• A review of the LDP Background Technical Paper No. 12 indicates that the demand for travel will increase by 41% on the local highway network, resulting in an increased journey time of 7 minutes. Modelling results indicate that the existing highway network is not deemed sufficient to cater for an increase in residential dwellings from 4000 (as originally proposed) to 7,500. Improvements that will need to be implemented in advance of any development will not be in place;
• The modelling work undertaken in conjunction with the LDP Preferred Strategy proposals indicates that the level of traffic generated by the Waterhall site simply will not be able to access the network due to congestion;
• It is considered that the PDR connection is essential in order to reduce pressure on the local highway network. The link would ensure that traffic generated by the development is able to leave the site; whilst a rapid transit link along the City Line would give the site a realistic chance of coming close to the mode split the Cardiff Council require in order to make the LDP work.
Conclusion
8.3 The redevelopment of the Waterhall site is not considered to be achievable from a sustainable perspective. The site is located within an area that has poor pedestrian and cycle infrastructure and poor public transport links.
8.4 The redevelopment of the Waterhall site will result in a significant increase in vehicular traffic which cannot be catered for on the existing highway network. It is concluded that:
• There is no realistic solution to resolving the congestion experienced a Llandaff to the east or along the PDR to the west of the site;
• There is no realistic way of mitigating against the impact of additional development traffic along local ‘rural’ routes located within the vicinity of St Fagans;
• There is no additional capacity at neighbouring railway stations to cater for additional footfall or trips via car;
8.5 It is clear from the LDP Preferred Strategy that in order for the proposals to be successfully accommodated significant new infrastructure will need to be in place prior to first occupation. This is clearly not achievable.
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8.6 Cardiff LDP Preferred Strategy seeks to achieve a 50:50 split between car-based and non car-based travel. This report proves that even with significant improvements to the local and wider infrastructure in place this target is unrealistic and cannot be achieved.
8.7 The proposals for 7,500 new homes in north-west Cardiff are not considered to be deliverable from a sustainable or highways perspective and should therefore not commence until further review.
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FIGURES
1209-59/TA/01 Transport Planning Associates December 2012 Figures