Republic Of CROATIA
CLIMATE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT REPUBLIC OF CROATIA
CLIMATE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT REPUBLIC OF CROATIA © Zavisa Simac, Ksenija Vitale. Climate Vulnerability Assessment: Croatia. Zagreb, May 2012
Copies of all or part of this study may be made for non-commercial use, providing the source is acknowledged. The SEEFCCA would appreciate receiving details of its use. Requests for commercial reproduction should be directed to the SEEFCCA at [email protected].
The opinions and recommendations expressed in this study do not necessarily represent the official policy of the SEEFCCA or individual National Red Cross Societies or project partners in this IPA project. The designations used do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of SEEFCCA concerning the legal status of a territory or of its authorities. The copyright of each photo used in this study is indicated.
This publication has been produced with the assistance of the European Union. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of Zaviša Simac and Ksenija Vitale and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union. www.seeclimateforum.org www.facebook.com/seeforumoncca [email protected]
Editor: Croatian Red Cross
Author: Zaviša Simac, Ksenija Vitale
Advisors: Sonja Greiner, Marinko Metlicic, Louisa Whitlock
Design: Imre Sebestyén, jr. / UNITgraphics.com
Cover image: © iStockphoto.com/enderbirer
Print: UVEZ Ltd. Zaprešić, Hrvatska Republic Of CROATIA
Acronyms
CBS Croatian Bureau of Statistics
CDM Clean Development Mechanism
CEA Croatian Environmental Agency
CFC Chlorofluorocarbons
CLIVAR Research Programme on Climate Variability and Predictability
CRCS Croatia Red Cross Society
DRR Disaster Risk Reduction
FEEC Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GHG Greenhouse Gasses
GWh Gigawatt Hour
LULUCF Land Use Change and Forestry
MAB Man and Biosphere Programme
MENP Ministry of Environmental and Nature Protection
MFCAL Multifunctional character of agriculture and land
MHS Meteorological and Hydrological Service
MRMI Medical Response to Major Incidents
MSES Ministry of Science, Education and Sport
NGO Non Governmental Organisation
SEEFCCA South East European Forum on Climate Change Adaptation
TFR Total Fertility Rate
UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
WHO World Health Organisation
WMO-CCl World Meteorological Organization Commission for Climatology
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Acknowledgements
The writing of this Climate Vulnerability Assessment Economic Promotion of the Austrian Federal Economic was made possible through the support of the following Chamber and the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF). financial contributions: This project is co-funded by the European Union, Instrument for Pre-Accession We express our gratitude to all participants in the Assistance (IPA), and implemented with further funds project. provided by the Austrian Red Cross, the Institute for
Preface
Climate change has manifested itself in the form of rising The CRCS is mandated by its constitution to undertake temperatures (often referred to as global warming) that disaster preparedness and response activities in the has far reaching implications on the delicate balance country. However, climate change impacts such more of nature that dictates our climatic systems. Globally, severe and frequent natural hazards, are expected climate change has resulted in the reduction of land and to pose challenges to CRCS programmes. Therefore sea ice and snow mass. The melting ice has resulted the strategy is to make climate change an integral in rising sea levels that are putting Croatian coast and part of CRCS programming and incorporate disaster islands at great risk. Heat waves have become frequent risk reduction (DRR), to go beyond preparedness and and lead to increased deaths among the elderly and response activities. populations with health issues. CRCS proposed activities which will, hopefully, lead Climate change is anticipated to have far reaching to a resilient society. Due to the impacts of climate effects on the sustainable development of Croatia. change and the increase of uncertainty in the weather, The economy of Croatia is dependent on agricultural the existing coping strategies that communities production and tourism. Extreme climate variability have in place, may become insufficient. Vulnerability (droughts and floods, sunny days and temperature) to climate change impacts usually occurs due to have a large negative effect on the county’s socio- variation in frequency and duration of those changes economic development. This is likely to worsen with or because people are constrained economically, expected climate change impacts because they have socially or politically from responding adequately fewer resources to adapt socially, technologically and to those changes. Diversification of community financially. Due to climate change much agricultural livelihoods and resources, improved infrastructure, land will be lost, with shorter growing seasons and resilient institutions and strengthening of local lower yields. The overexploitation of land resources in knowledge can contribute to reduced vulnerability, combination with poor spatial planning, pose additional while reduction of access to natural resources or threats. In addition, rising temperatures are changing practices incompatible with local customs, traditions the geographical distribution of climate-related disease or knowledge can increase vulnerability. vectors (e.g. malaria) which are migrating to new areas and higher altitude densely populated areas.
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Scope and purpose of this CVA
This climate vulnerability assessment report is a This study focuses on: publication under the Instrument for Pre-Accession yy Overview of present and future climate risks in the Assistance (IPA) project “South East European Forum country on Climate Change Adaptation” (SEEFCCA). Within this yy Assessment of most important climate change regional project, four national civil society organisation impacts (negative and positive) (CSO) networks on climate change adaptation in yy The country’s action to tackle climate change Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia have including considerations of national policies, been established to strengthen civil society and tackle strategies and plans climate change through awareness-raising and policy yy Identifying vulnerable sectors such as public dialogue on national and regional levels. health, energy, agriculture and tourism yy Vulnerability to natural hazards The recommendations of this report should foster the yy Identifying most vulnerable regions in the country definition of climate change related initiatives and guide yy Recommendations regarding adaptation strategies the work of national CSO networks on Climate Change yy Identifying capacities of civil society organisations Adaptation,including the Netowrk for Climate Change yy Identifying gaps in horizontal collaboration between Adaptation - Croatia. The results of this document government sector are also integrated in the regional synthesis climate yy Identifying gaps in collaboration between vulnerability assessment report that brings together the government, scientific and economy sectors findings of national climate vulnerability assessments in Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia. This national climate vulnerability assessment shall raise awareness among civil society organizations and The IPA project “South East European Forum on Climate public stakeholders regarding the risks and impacts Change Adaptation“ 2011-2012 is implemented by of a changing climate. It shall be used primarily as a Croatia Red Cross, Macedonia Red Cross,Montenegro background document for policy dialogue, lobbying Red Cross, the NGOs Environmental Improvement and building of a strong civil society for climate Center and WWF in Serbia and coordinated by the change adaptation. Austrian Red Cross. Other partners in this project include the Institute for Economic Promotion of the Austrian The objective of this consultancy is to undertake a Federal Economic Chamber, the Red Cross/Red country-wide assessment and to provide an overview Crescent Climate Centre in The Hague (Netherlands), of the impacts of climate change and variability in the the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) Danube- social, health, ecological and economic sectors. The Carpathian Programme and the WWF Romania. study shall identify most vulnerable sectors, possible knowledge gaps and adaptation capacities to negative impacts of climate change. Furthermore, it should allow for identification of cross-border action to address sectorial and regional vulnerabilities to climate change, taking into account existing national and regional initiatives and cooperation.
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Methodology and development process
This report was prepared by the authors with the with local experts and other stakeholders. The report assistance of members of the Climate Change focuses on specific sectors identified by members of Adaptation Network – Croatia. The report was based the Climate Change Adaptation Network – Croatia, and on a desk study of the available literature and further the recommendations were developed from the existing information was drawn from interviews and discussion literature and approved by network members.
Executive summary
Introduction: Climate change National climate change and disaster risk Climate change is a process which leaves no one reduction strategies and structures unaffected. The rise in the average temperature of The Republic of Croatia has signed all important the planet, known as global warming, is probably the agreement and treaties dealing with climate change, most important issue which must be tackled with global warming, CO2 emissions, reduction of great urgency. Changes in the amount and intensity greenhouse gases and incorporated these into its own of precipitation, can be overcome; changes in the policies and strategies. Since climate change is directly frequency and intensity of extreme weather patterns linked with increased natural disasters, the Republic can be overcome; but a rise in temperature with its of Croatia is also incorporating disaster risk reduction consequences is a great problem for mankind and strategies in all sectors. The National Protection and every living organism on the planet. Rescue Directorate has become more occupied dealing with consequences of climate change over the last few Impacts of climate change in the years, prompting the realization that climate change Republic of Croatia and disaster risk reduction strategies must go hand in The big picture of how exactly global warming is changing hand. Implementing the Hyogo priorities and activities the current conditions in the Republic of Croatia is still in everyday life is the right way to go. unclear. However, some indicators of climate change are present across all sectors, such more frequent Recommendations and intense droughts, precipitation, new species, new The recommendations of this publication are summarised disease vectors, rises in air and sea temperature, etc. in the recommendations chapter and include findings Visible signs of climate change include annual variation for decision-makers, the general public and civil society in crop yield, increased numbers of deaths of chronic and the Red Cross. Key recommendations include: patients, sea level rise, a longer touristic season and yy For decision-makers: Foster coordination between the development of new touristic destination due government, ministries, civil society, scientific to change in local climate. Researchers have linked society, education, private sector, to exchange these changes to climate change, but without further data, information and experiences. extensive research this is not yet certain. yy For general public: Raising awareness about climate change adaptation through media and education. yy For civil society and Red Cross: Promoting an integrated approach in Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation
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Table of contents
Acronyms...... 5 Acknowledgements...... 6 Preface...... 6 Scope and purpose of this CVA...... 7 Methodology and development process...... 8 Executive summary ...... 8 Introduction: Climate change...... 8 Impacts of climate change in the Republic of Croatia ...... 8 National climate change and disaster risk reduction strategies and structures ...... 8 Recommendations...... 8 Table of contents ...... 9 Table of figures...... 11
1. Introduction: Climate change ...... 12 1.1 Scientific background...... 12 1.2 Climate change mitigation...... 13 1.3 The need for adaptation...... 15
2. Current and future climate risks in Croatia...... 16 2.1 Country context ...... 16 2.1.1 Geography...... 16 2.1.2 Population and demography ...... 17 2.2 Climate...... 18 2.2.1 Current climate...... 18 2.2.2 Trends in climate ...... 18 2.3 Natural hazards ...... 19 2.3.1 Extreme temperature and drought...... 19 2.3.2 Winds ...... 20 2.3.3 Floods...... 21 2.3.4 Sea-level rise...... 21 2.4 Vulnerability to natural hazards...... 21 2.5 Adaptive capacity ...... 22
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3. Sectoral impacts of climate change...... 23 3.1 Agriculture ...... 23 3.1.1 Overview of the agricultural sector...... 23 3.1.2 Impacts and vulnerabilities...... 23 3.1.3 Adaptation measures...... 23 3.2 Health care...... 24 3.2.1 Overview of the health care sector...... 24 3.2.2 Impacts and vulnerabilities...... 25 3.2.3 Adaptation measures...... 25 3.3 Tourism...... 25 3.3.1 Overview of the tourism sector...... 25 3.3.2 Impacts and vulnerabilities...... 26 3.3.3 Adaptation measures...... 26 3.4 Energy ...... 26 3.4.1 Overview of the energy sector ...... 26 3.4.2 Impacts and vulnerabilities...... 27 3.4.3 Adaptation measures...... 27
4. National climate change and disaster risk reduction strategies and structures in Croatia...... 28 4.1 State of knowledge and data availability ...... 28 4.2 Government strategies and institutional arrangements addressing climate change and disaster risk reduction ...... 28 4.3 The role of civil society and the Red Cross ...... 30 4.3.1 The role of the Red Cross...... 30
5. Recommendations...... 31 5.1 Policy dialogue: recommendations for decision-makers ...... 31 5.2 Awareness raising: recommendations for the general public...... 32 5.3 Civil society development: recommendations for civil society organizations and the Red Cross. . . . . 32
6. References...... 33
Annex 1: Key demographic information...... 34 Annex 2: Observed climatic trends in Croatia...... 37 Annex 3: Education in the republic of Croatia...... 43
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Table and figures
Figure 1: The greenhouse effect. Source; IPCC, 1996...... 12
Figure 2: Map of Croatia ...... 16
Figure 3: Age/sex pyramid of Croatia (2001). Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics...... 17
Table 1: Index of population change by age for period 1981. –- 2001. Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics. . . 17
Table 2: Future trend of Crude Birth Rate and Total Fertility Rate. Source: Nejašmić & Mišetić, 2004...... 18
Table 3: Total population number, projection 2001. –- 2011. Source: Nejašmić & Mišetić, 2004...... 18
Table 5: Warmest ten years since records began at five meteorological stations across Croatia. Source: Ministry of Environment, Physical Planning and Construction, 2010...... 19
Table 6: Temperature and precipitation percentiles over % of Croatian territory (1999-2010). Source: National Hydrometeorological Service...... 20
Table 7: Irrigation in the Republic of Croatia (2003). Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Management ...... 24
Table 8: Production of electric energy in GWh. Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics...... 26
Table 8: Selected economic indicators of Croatian economy. Source: Croatian Chamber of Economy...... 34
Table 9: Consumption expenditures, average per household. Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics...... 35
Table 10: Poverty indicators1. Source: Croatian bureau of Statistics ...... 35
Table 11: Average monthly earnings. Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics and Croatia Chamber of Economy. . 35
Table 12: Selected health indicators for Croatia. Source: World Health Organization (WHO)...... 36
Table 13: Insured persons and temporary work disability. Source: Croatia Institution of Health Protection and Safety at Work ...... 36
Table 14: Trends in mean annual air temperature (°C/10 years) for 108-, 100-, 75-, 50- and 25-years period (Trends significant at the 5% - bold and italic). Source: National Meteorological and Hydrological Service. . . . .37
Table 15: Trends in mean annual and seasonal air temperature (°C/10 years). (Trends significant at the 5% - bold and italic). Source: National Meteorological and Hydrological Service. . . . .38
Table 16: Table 15.- Ten warmest years. (period 1991. – 2008. is bolded). Source: National Meteorological and Hydrological Service ...... 38
Table 17: Trends in annual and seasonal precipitation amounts (Trends significant at the 5% - bold and italic) Source: National Meteorological and Hydrological Service ...... 40
Table 18: Ten driest years. (period 1991. – 2008. is bolded). Source: National Meteorological and Hydrological Service ...... 40
Table 19: Trends in indices of precipitation extremes (DD – dry days, R75% - wet days, R95% - very wet days, R95%T – annual precipitation fraction due to very wet days, Rx1d – annual 1-day precipitation maxima, Rx5d – annual 5-day precipitation maxima). (Trends significant at the 5% - bold and italic). Source: National Hydrological and Meteorological Service...... 41
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1. Introduction: Climate change
1.1 Scientific background
The overwhelming scientific consensus is that climate Figure 1 below illustrates the greenhouse effect which change is happening, and is a serious threat to causes the average temperature of the Earth to increase. societies and economies around the world. Already the The greenhouse effect is a naturally occurring process effects of climate change are being felt in the form of that aids in heating the earth’s surface and atmosphere more variable and extreme weather in many parts of because greenhouse gases are able to absorb long- the world. Although the climate of the Earth has always wave radiation emitted from the earth’s surface. Thus changed, the clear warming trend now observed is greenhouse gases (including water vapour (H2O), more significant than any changes in the recent past. carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), ozone (O3),
Figure 1: The greenhouse effect. Source; IPCC, 1996
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CFCs and methane (CH4)) in the atmosphere behave predicted to rise further. Average global temperatures much like the artificial atmosphere in a greenhouse: have risen by 0.7˚C since 18502. sunlight enters the earth’s atmosphere, passing through the blanket of greenhouse gases. As it reaches The effects of climate change on human society are the earth’s surface, land, water, and biosphere absorb likely to be significant and long-lasting. Depending the sunlight’s energy. Part of the energy is reflected on how fossil fuel emissions change over the coming back into the atmosphere, where some of it remains years, key trends predicted for the next century include: trapped in the atmosphere by the GHGs, causing the yy Temperature rise: The global average temperature planet to heat up1. is expected to rise between 1.0 - 4.2˚C by the end of the twenty first century. The greenhouse effect is important. Without it the yy Precipitation changes: Rainfall is predicted to earth would not be warm enough for humans to live, become more unpredictable and intense across as the average temperature of the Earth would be much of the globe. colder (about -18°C), rather than the present 15°C. yy Sea-level rise: By the end of the twenty first However, if the concentration of greenhouse gases century, sea levels are expected to have risen by a increases, then the effect becomes stronger, causing global average of between 0.18 and 0.59 m3. average global temperatures to increase further, with potentially significant consequences. In Europe, the temperature increase is predicted to be above the global average, with warming likely to occur Human (anthropogenic) activities are the dominant of between 1.0 and 5.5˚C resulting in hotter summers force responsible for most of the global warming and fewer frost days in winter. Most precipitation observed over the past 150 years. These activities models agree that the eastern Mediterranean part of contribute to climate change by causing changes in Europe will receive less rain; when it does rain, it will the earth’s atmosphere through introduction of large do so more intensely in between longer dry periods. amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as carbon Projected global sea level rises will also affect the dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O); Mediterranean, although Croatia’s tectonically active halocarbons (chlorofluorocarbons, CFCs), Troposphere coastline means that it is difficult to predict the effects 4 Ozone (O3), water vapour (H2O), aerosols; and land of this on a more local level . use / cover changes. The largest known contribution of
GHGs comes through CO2 production from increased Climate change has also been linked to rises in the industrial activity (fossil fuel burning) and other human frequency and severity of extreme weather and climate- activities such as deforestation that have increased related natural hazards5. Human and economic losses the CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. Before the from natural disasters are likely to increase considerably industrial revolution, CO2 levels in the atmosphere were as a result of climate change. 280 ppm; today they are approximately 385 ppm and 2 IPCC, 2007 3 Ibid 4 Ibid 1 IPCC, 2007 5 IPCC, 2012
1.2 Climate change mitigation
Climate change is a global issue requiring to their climate-sensitive economies and low adaptive combinations of the local, national, regional and capacity. Climate Change mitigation strategies aim to international efforts to address it. This is despite the reduce the emissions of GHGs from human activities, fact that though the causes of this problem can be thereby reducing or completely eliminating the human traced to the industrialised countries, the effects have induced climate change component and slow down an impact on the entire world. Developing countries, global warming. particularly those in Africa, will be most affected due
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Numerous international agreements have been November 2006 Croatia received the quota for GHG: convened in order to attempt climate change mitigation the level of emission for the base year is 36,64 Mt CO2 through controlling greenhouse gas emissions (see equivalent. Croatia is bound by Kyoto Protocol to reduce box below). Croatia by adopting the Law of The United emission of GHG by 5% based on 1990 emissions level Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has during the period 2008 – 20126. become a party and accepted all obligations described in Annex I of Convention. After extensive negotiation, in 6 See http://www.mzoip.hr/
Multilateral agreements relating to climate change mitigation:
The following is a brief enumeration of the Multilateral Agreements (MAs) being undertaken to address the problem at the international, regional and national levels (among others):
1. The Vienna Convention (1985) and the Montreal Protocol (1987), designed to protect the ozone layer, encompassing: • London Amendment (1990) • Copenhagen Amendment (1992) • Montreal Amendment (1997) • Beijing Amendments (1999).
2. United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, 1992.) and its Kyoto Protocol (1997). The Kyoto Protocol entered into force on 16 February 2005. • Through Article 4.7 of the UNFCCC, the country can access international funding (e.g. Global Environment Fund) to do the following: GHGs inventory; technology development, transfer and diffusion; capacity building (response and adaptation to climate change); Research and Systematic observation; Training Education and Public awareness. • Article 3 of Kyoto Protocol fixed the targets of GHGs reduction by 2012. from industrialised countries plus countries with economies in transitions by roughly 5% from their 1990 levels and to adapt the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) including “Carbon Trading” and sequestration. Developing countries are required to collect and submit GHGs data; and to formulate and implement mitigation and adaptation measures, plus other relevant measures. Reporting on this is known as the “National Communications”. • Under Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol, resources can be accessed to CDM project activities.
The concept of “ Carbon Trading” is illustrated when a nation that emits very little GHGs (say Kenya) sells its allotted but non-existent emission quarter to a top polluter nation (say, USA) that is unable or unwilling to reduce its emissions. This is now a big business and involves billions of US Dollars annually under the “Polluter Must Pay Principle”. The act of “Trade” is to be given money to conserve forest cover whose foliage becomes a “carbon sink”.
3. Disaster risk reduction (DRR) efforts are guided by the Hyogo Framework of Action (2005. – 2015.) which aims for the substantial reduction of disaster losses, in lives and in the social, economic and environmental assets of communities and countries.
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1.3 The need for adaptation
Greenhouse gases stay in the atmosphere for many years after they were first emitted, so even if all emissions ceased immediately, the planet would still experience some degree of warming. Since most international agreements designed to strictly limit the emissions of greenhouse gases have not so far been successful, it must be accepted that a certain amount of warming is inevitable, and that preparations must be made for the challenges which that entails. The first step os to identify potential challenges that climate change may If we want to survive and prosper, we have to persevere in long and hard process of adaptation to climate change
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2. Current and future climate risks in Croatia
2.1 Country context
2.1.1 Geography The Republic of Croatia with its size of 56,542 km2 (without the Adriatic Sea), belongs among middle European countries; to be precise it is 25th out of 44 in terms of size. It is situated between the Adriatic Sea, Slovenia, Hungary, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and Montenegro.
For a country of this size it has rather long border: 2 374,9 km in total (1011,4 km with Bosnia and Herzegovina, 667,8 km with Slovenia, 355,5 km with Hungary, 317,6 km with Serbia and 22,6 km withMontenegro). Even longer is the Croatian coastline: 5 835,3 km (1 777,3 km of mainland coastline and 4 058 km of island coastline). Along this length there are 1158 islands and reefs. The Republic of Croatia extends from Žabnik (46°33’N 16°22’E) in the north to Galijula Island(42°23’N 12°21’E) in the south and from Rađevac (45°12’N 19°27’E) in the east to Point Lako
(45°29’N 13°30’E) in the west. Although the extreme Figure 2: Map of Croatia points are very distant (458 km N to S and 464 km E to W), the Croatian size and interesting horseshoe shape Network. Altogether, whether protection is international is a result of different events during history. or national, Croatia protects 7,95% of its territory. The 461 Croatian protected areas can be divided into The Republic of Croatia can be divided in three parts 10 different categories: strict reserves, national parks, based on relief, climate, hydrographical, vegetational, special reserves, nature parks, regional parks, nature historical and cultural differences: the Mediterranean monuments, significant landscapes, park forests area called Primorska Hrvatska, the mountain area called and park architecture monuments. Beside these ten Gorska Hrvatska and the Panoninan and peripanonian categories, which are protected on the national level, area called Nizinska Hrvatska. Croatia has seven internationally protected areas: National park Plitvička jezera, protected by UNESCO; Primorska Hrvatska is situated along the Adriatic Sea Velebit, protected by MAB programme; Delta Neretve, and includes 32% of Croatian territory with 31% of Crna Mlaka, Kopački rit, Lonjsko polje and Mokro Polje Croatia inhabitants. Primorska Hrvatska can be divided including Krapje đol, all protected by Ramsar convention in two parts: Istra Peninsula and Kvarner in the north, and Papuk, protected by the European Geoparks and Dalmatia in the south. Most part is influenced by
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Age 0-14 0-19 15-39 40-64 15-64 60 - 65 - 75 - Index 78,3 81,8 89,6 105,0 96,5 137,9 132,3 133,6 Table 1: – Index of population change by age for period 1981. –- 2001. Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics the Mediteranean climate (Csa in the Köppen climate hilly scenery. Nizinska Hrvatska is characterised by Cfc classification) and the humid subtropical climate climate type.7 (Cfa); a small part of Primorska Hrvatska belongs to the oceanic climate (Cfb). In a geological sense this Administrative divisions consists of two levels: first, part of Croatia mostly is built of limestone. Due to the 20 counties and the City of Zagreb; and second, 429 specific shape of coastline and the number of islands, municipalities and 127 towns. This kind of division is peninsulas, capes and reefs and other geologic and the result of historical and political factors. Two major geomorphologic structures this type of coast is named transport corridors run through Croatia: one linking Dalmatian Coast type. central Europe with south eastern Europe and Asia; the second linking Croatia with eastern Europe. Croatia Gorska Hrvatska consists of 13% of Croatian territory is also located on the Danube river which is a major with only 2% of the population; it is the smallest region navigational route8. and situated in the karst area of Gorski kotar and Lika. The low population density is a result of unfavourable 2.1.2 Population and demography natural factors and long lasting depopulation. The major According to the 2011 census, Croatia has a part of Gorska Hrvatska belongs to the oceanic climate population of 4 290 612, which means that Croatia (Cfb) except for the climate of the high mountain areas has lost 146 848 inhabitants in the past decade9. that can be described as a boreal climate (Df, lower Some research shows that decline will continue and parts Cfc). even accelerate.
The population composition by age and sex, can be
Men (%) Women (%) described as standard. A deficiency of women in the younger groups is a result of differential birth rate and 95- 90-94 excess of women in older groups is result of differential 85-89 80-84 mortality. Data from three censuses (1981, 1991 and 75-79 2001) shows rapid population ageing10. 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 The ageing index (number of persons 60 years old or 50-54 45-49 over per hundred persons under age 19) for 2001. is 40-44 90.7, 30% higher than the index in 1991 (66.7) and 35-39 30-34 300 % higher than 1953 (28.0). According to the 2001 25-29 20-24 census the median age is 39.3. Even this data shows 15-19 10-14 a developing ageing trend: in 1991 the median age was 5-9 37.2; in 1981, 35.4 and in 1971, 34.0. The median age 0-4 index for 1991 and 2001 is 105.6. Figure 3: Age/sex pyramid of Croatia (2001). Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics Due to the fact that life expectancy is also growing (from 72.3 in 1991 to 74.6 in 2001), a trend which is Nizinska Hrvatska is the largest Croatian region with 56% present in all European countries, population ageing is of Croatian territory and 67% of the population. Nizinska not presenting such a big problem as decreasing birth Hrvatska is situated between seven rivers; Dunav, in the rate and total fertility rate. East; Sava and Una, in the South; Sutla and Kupa, in the West and Mura and Drava, in the North. Nizinska
Hrvatska can be divided in three parts: the Pannonian 7 Jelić & Škrget, 2009 lowlands in the east, the Peripannonian lowland in the 8 Ilić & Orešić, 2004 middle part, and the western part characterised by 9 Croatian Bureau of Statistics. See http://www.dzs.hr 10 Ibid.
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Compared data from three age groups (“children” (0-14) decreasing TFR, a rise in the average age of mother 17,08%, “parents” (15-49) 49,3% and “grandparents” at first birth has also begun12. (50<) 33,62%) shows Croatia has entered a regressive type of age pyramid (see figure 3 below). The percentage According to projections, by 2031 the Croatian of “grandparents” is almost twice the percentage of population will decrease to a number of 3,680,750; in “children”. This change in population age composition 30-year period Croatia will lose 756,710 inhabitants. is result of two parallel global demographic processes: Depopulation is growing stronger on a yearly basis. All decrease of total number of “children” and increase calculation are based on birth/mortality rate, migrations of total number of “grandparents. Very significant for was not included. On average Croatia is losing 25,224 future population development in Croatia, especially for inhabitants every year or 3 every minute13. reproduction, is the decrease of women of pre-fertile 11 and younger fertile groups . Index (2001. = Year Population 100) Social and economic changes in transitional central 2001. 4 437 460 100 and eastern European countries made their mark on total fertility rate (TFR). The falling trend is not specific 2011. 4 293 210 96,7 for this part of Europe; stagnancy or decreasing in 2021. 4 018 670 90,6 TFR is common in almost all European countries. This 2031. 3 680 750 82,9 process has not bypassed Croatia. In parallel with the Table 3: Total population number, projection 2001. –- 2011. Source: Nejašmić & Mišetić, 2004
Year Crude Birth Rate Total Fertility Rate The difference in population between the data from the 2001 39,14 1,37 2011 census and projection for 2011 is 2 598. This 2006 38,55 1,35 difference is negligible, especially since the projection for 2011 does not take migration into account. Fresh 2011 37,58 1,32 data confirms that Croatia has entered a demographic 2016 36,64 1,28 period of rapid decline and rapid ageing of population. If 2021 35,72 1,25 the national government wishes to avoid an increasing 2026 34,82 1,22 burden on national funds (health, pension) it should take 2031 33,94 1,19 decisive steps to encourage an increase in both birth Table 2: Future trend of Crude Birth Rate and Total Fertility Rate. Source: and fertility rates and discourage emigration and maybe Nejašmić & Mišetić, 2004 encourage immigration..
12 Nejašmić & Mišetić, 2004 11 Croatian Bureau of Statistics 13 Ibid.
2.2 Climate
2.2.1 Current climate The highest rainfall tends to fall on the coastal slopes of Most of Croatia experiences a temperate and humid the Dinarides mountains. The Adriatic coastal areas and climate. In the far south of the country a Mediterranean islands experience as much as 2 700 hours of sunshine climate prevails, with very dry and hot summers, while a year, while inland areas experience approximately the majority of the country experiences warm summers, 1800 – 2 000 hours of sunshine a year14. with only the high-altitude regions experiencing very cold winters. The mean annual temperature ranges 2.2.2 Trends in climate from 12-17˚C along the coast to 3-4˚C in the mountains, Since the 19th century, meteorological data has been with summer temperatures reaching the middle taken from five stations across Croatia, allowing twenties Celsius along the Adriatic coast, and January averaging between ) and -2 ˚C in the coldest regions. 14 Ministry of Environmental Protection, Physical Planning and Construction, 2010
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Osijek Zagreb – Grič Gospić Crikvenica Hvar Year °C Year °C Year °C Year °C Year °C 2000. 12,9 2000. 13,8 2000. 10,5 1950. 16,0 1945. 19,2 2008. 12,5 2007. 13,6 2008. 10,4 2000. 15,9 1994. 17,5 2007. 12,4 2008. 13,4 2007. 10,3 2007. 15,9 2003. 17,4 1992. 12,3 1994. 13,3 1994. 9,9 2008. 15,8 2000. 17,4 1994. 12,2 2002. 13,2 2002. 9,9 2003. 15,8 1930. 17,3 1934. 12,2 1992. 13,0 1951. 9,9 1951. 15,7 2008. 17,3 1916. 12,1 2003. 12,9 1947. 9,9 1949. 15,7 2007. 17,3 1951. 12,1 2006. 12,7 1928. 9,9 2002. 15,7 1950. 17,3 2002. 12,1 2001. 12,7 2003. 9,9 1943. 15,6 2002. 17,3 1927. 11,9 1950. 12,7 2001. 9,7 2001. 15,6 1947. 17,1
Table 5: Warmest ten years since records began at five meteorological stations across Croatia. Source: Ministry of Environmental Protection, Physical Planning and Construction, 2010 for a reliable documentation of long-term climatic yy Precipitation: There has been a trend of declining trends. Below are summarised15 the key trends of the rates of precipitation at all stations across the twentieth century16: country, and an increase in the number of dry yy Air temperature: All weather stations indicated a days at all stations, with a corresponding decrease rising average temperature, especially pronounced in the number of wet days. The number of during the last twenty years. This rise is statistically consecutive dry days has also risen, in particular significant at four out of five stations. Cold weather along the Adriatic coast. indicators (e.g. number of frost days) have registered a decline at a majority of stations. Table 1 below shows the ten warmest years ever recorded at five weather stations throughout Croatia; years after 1991 are highlighted. At each station, a
15 For more data and detailed analysis, please see Annex 2 of this report. majority of the warmest years on record have occurred 16 Ministry of Environmental Protection, Physical Planning and Construction, 2010 since 1991.
2.3 Natural hazards
From all climate change driven hazards, the National twentieth century. Although 2003 was the warmest year Hazards Assessment only recognises flooding as since 1862, temperature rises have yet to cause serious a major risk in Croatia. Extreme temperature and disruption in the function of society. The data shown in precipitation, drought, wind and sea-level rise are not table 19 corresponds with the IPCC findings for Croatia: mention or covered only by basics. However, during a rise in temperature and a drop in precipitation. There the period from 1980 to 2002, natural hazards caused have been fewer very cold nights in winter, and summers US$5 billion worth of damage17; it can be concluded, have been getting warmer and longer. therefore, that Croatia is prone to natural disasters caused by natural hazards. Although 2003 was the warmest year since 1862, temperature rises have yet to cause serious disruption 2.3.1 Extreme temperature and drought in the function of society . However, the increase in As seen in table 1 below, an increase in temperature is temperature brings an increased risk of drought. As the present on almost all of Croatian territory. The decade temperatures rise, there is also a strong indication that spanning the years 1991-2000 was the warmest of the precipitation levels are decreasing: annual cloudiness has been decreasing, and the number of dry days has
17 Croatian natural and technological hazard assessment, NPRD, 2009 risen. The hundred-year-trend has been of a drop in
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Percentile 1999. 2000. 2001. 2002. 2003. 2004. 2005. 2006. 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. extreme cold <2 very cold 2/- 2% cold 9-25 5% 2% normal 25-75 1% 1% 95% 96% 3% 15% warm 75-91 3% 5% 4% 10% 4% 75% very warm 91-98 76% 10% 5% 15% 80% 1% 1% 10% extreme warm >98 20% 100% 85% 95% 80% 7% 99% 99% 96% extreme dry <2 15% 3% 10% very dry 2/- 15% 1% 80% 3% 2% 6% dry 9-25 10% 60% 5% 5% 7% 60% 5% 6% 15% normal 25-75 40% 30% 78% 15% 3% 90% 65% 37% 95% 92% 65% 1% wet 75-91 25% 8% 45% 8% 20% 6% 24% very wet 91-98 25% 3% 35% 2% 1% 8% 25% extreme wet >98 3% 14% 50% warmer 99% 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 100% 100% 100% 85% colder 5% 4% dryer 10% 90% 9% 5% 93% 63% 5% 8% 21% weter 50% 14% 80% 10% 35% 14% 99%
Table 6 Temperature and precipitation percentiles over % of Croatian territory (1999-2010). Source: National Hydrometeorological Service precipitation, most pronounced in the coastal areas days, which can be a major problem for road transport, and eastern Slavonia. Recently, the northwest of electricity (both production and supply) and other life Croatia and the eastern agricultural heartland has been lines. Whilst they last, bora can drastically decrease experiencing diminishing rainfall, with the significant temperature. A severe bora in November 2004 killed consequence that the demand for water for agricultural two people, injured fifty more and caused major purposes has been rising sharply, indicating that the property damage19. agricultural sector is extremely vulnerable to drought18. The occurrence of the jugo wind is associated with low 2.3.2 Winds pressure, although it can form with high pressure. The The bora and jugo winds are the two dominant winds in jugo is strongest during colder period of year, autumn Croatia; both are major factors along the Adriatic coast. and spring: it lasts few days with average speed The bora is the most typical wind of the Adriatic coast, up to 10 m/s. Jugo winds combined with big waves caused by the Dinarides mountains acting as a barrier and other favorable conditions, meteorological and between the hot air masses over the Adriatic and the geomorphologic, can cause serious coastal flooding continental cold air masses. It is a katabatic wind most (as in Vela Luka in 1978.). Other than that, jugo winds common during the winter. The average speed of bora are a major disruptor of ferry transport and often cause gusts is 30 m/s, while average maximum speeds are disruption in provision of the islands. around 60 m/s. The highest recorded maximum is 69.44 m/s. Bora can last from a few hours to a few
18 UNDP, 2008 19 UNDP, 2008
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2.3.3 Floods resistant, so the flood and the damage that follows it is Croatia is a highly flood-prone country due to the a surprise every time that it happens20. fact that it is situated in the Danube basin and is under strong influence of Sava and Drava rivers. 2.3.4 Sea-level rise Another problem are urban areas, where short The Mediterranean, including the Croatian Adriatic and high intensity precipitation in combination coastline, is affected by global sea-level rises caused with poor spatial planning causes floods, despite by thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of the the presence of flood defences. A high proportion polar ice caps. Particularly at-risk from sea level rise of concrete and asphalt areas and poor sewage are low islands such as Krapanj (only 1.5 m above sea systems that takes boat sewage and rainwater are level) and river deltas (e.g. the Nereteva river delta, major risk factors in urban flooding in Croatia. It is which includes large areas of agricultural land) which estimated that 15 % of Croatian territory is prone to are vulnerable to coastal flooding and salinisation. flooding, excluding coastal zones; they are at risk of Overall there has been a gradual rise over the past different types of flooding that are caused by rain, decade, but monitoring stations along the coast give sea or combined. a wide variety of readings between 1956 and 1991: stations at Rovinj and Split indicate that the local sea In the last hundred years there were about thirty major level is rising, while those at Bakar and Dubrovnik floods. In the middle of twentieth century construction register falling levels. How much of this is due to local of flood defences started to be a priority. Although all uplift and subsistence is unclear; the Croatian coast is major Croatian rivers, (Dunav, Sava, Kupa, Mura, Drava, a tectonically active area, which can obscure long-term Una and Neretva) are more or less regulated, flooding trends in sea-level changes . This makes it difficult to still happens. Once again, poor spatial planning is to accurately predict the precise impacts of sea-level rise blame. People tend to forget very quickly, drainage in the Mediterranean on Croatia.21 channels are poorly maintained, construction areas 20 Croatian natural and technological hazard assessment, NPRD, 2009 spread across flood plains, buildings are no longer flood 21 UNDP, 2008
2.4 Vulnerability to natural hazards
Climate variability and perhaps climate change is by reduced river flow and hydropower production22. already impacting human development in Croatia These kinds of problems are likely to become more and affecting the choices that people can make to common over the coming century. improve their lives. Significant portions of society and the economy are vulnerable to variability in the Poverty and vulnerability are often closely linked, existing climate and to changes in the climate in and the agricultural and tourism sectors provide the future. many of the often-unofficial jobs that support some of the poorest members of society. Other particularly Almost a quarter of the Croatian economy is based vulnerable groups include the rural poor, the elderly on sectors potentially vulnerable to climate change who are at greater risk from the negative health and extreme weather, including agriculture and impacts of climate change, and disadvantaged tourism. This accounts for €9.23 billion a year. groups such as the Roma population23. Between 2000 and 2007, extreme weather including droughts and floods caused average annual losses in the agricultural sector of €173 million. The energy sector has also been affected by extreme weather: the 2003 drought cost the government €63-69 million in compensation for power outages caused 22 UNDP, 2008 23 Ibid.
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2.5 Adaptive capacity
The capacity of the Croatian state and society to adapt capacity. Government ministries and national bodies to climate change has not as yet been fully investigated. will need to take into account the future effects of However, it is certainly the case that most sectors are climate change when developing their strategic plans already being tested by the increased levels of climate for the coming years and decades, including ministries variability and extreme weather which have been and agencies responsible for the agricultural, energy, experienced over the past years. Indications so far tourism and water sectors. Gathering more detailed suggest that it would be wise to integrate climate change information will be an important first step towards and disaster management concerns thoroughly into building adaptive capacity in the state and civil society24. future planning in both the state and the private sector in order to bolster existing capabilities and develop new 24 UNDP, 2008
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3. Sectoral impacts of climate change
All the following findings in this chapter are based on of the SEEFCCA Network for Climate Change available scientific and professional reports, as well as Adaptation – Croatia as areas of special concern for reports from respective ministries and governmental Croatia in general and for the work of the network agencies. The focus areas were selected by members members in particular.
3.1 Agriculture
3.1.1 Overview of the agricultural sector sea temperatures are likely to impact the fishing industry, The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable to potentially through an increased number of invasive climate change, since it is so weather dependent. The species and changing locations of shoals, which will industry in Croatia has already suffered severe losses in turn affect the economy of coastal provinces and from extreme weather (up to €1.4 billion between islands. Diminished surface runoff may also affect 2007-2007), which indicated the current vulnerability groundwater levels, affecting drinking water supplies as of the sector25. well as water availability for irrigation30.
Of all the arable land in Republic of Croatia (1,077,403.14 3.1.3 Adaptation measures ha) only 0.86% is irrigated (see table 1 below)26. Irrigation is one measure which can prevent or minimise According to the Croatian Bureau of Statistics, some the effects of climate change, in particular decreased irrigation indexes shows declining trends, such as the precipitation. The reduction in crop cultures without number of pumping irrigation plants and the total length irrigation, in average climate condition can vary from 10 in km of canals and pipelines. CBS chain indices of to 60 %, while in extreme dry condition it can be up to agricultural production also show a declining trend, so 90% depending on culture, soil and area31. Increasing climate change impact is more than present; whether the irrigated area of arable land in Croatia is likely to be the issue lies in irrigation, “wrong” crops or in something necessary to maintain crop yields. else is a question which must be resolved swiftly; more research in this area is necessary27,28. In the long term, investment in further research is required to develop detailed, economically sound adaptation 3.1.2 Impacts and vulnerabilities measures in this area, including the development of Climate change potentially threatens the yields of major the agricultural education sector. Potential measures crops such as maize, which will be affected by the include promoting crop rotation and encouraging increasing number of droughts29. Meanwhile, warmer farmers to use new crop varieties (including drought- resistant and faster-growing varieties)32. 25 Ministry of Environmental Protection, Physical Planning and Construction, 2010 26 Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Management, 2005 27 Ministry of Environmental Protection, Physical Planning and Construction, 2010 30 UNDP, 2008 28 Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Management, 2005 31 Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Management, 2005 29 UNDP, 2008 32 Ministry of Environmental Protection, Physical Planning and Construction, 2010
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County Irrigated Area (ha) Used Area (ha) % Zagrebačka 177,07 77.818,65 0,23 Krapinsko-zagorska 7,39 27.783,84 0,03 Sisačko-moslavačka 45,03 62.721,83 0,07 Karlovačka 21,98 34.045,18 0,06 Varaždinska 538,26 38.512,56 1,40 Koprivničko-križevačka 150,81 76.231,54 0,20 Bjelovarsko-bilogorska 31,52 91.449,01 0,03 Primorsko-goranska 19,77 17.741,73 0,11 Ličko-senjska 1,17 24.444,44 0,00 Virovitičko-podravska 929,66 83.751,84 1,11 Požeško-slavonska 1.085,60 42.547,89 2,55 Brodsko-podravska 205,32 62.316,20 0,33 Zadarska 611,99 21.030,44 2,91 Osječko-baranjska 1.389,74 184.093,72 0,75 Šibensko-kninska 61,11 11.197,62 0,55 Vukovarsko-srijemska 771,96 121.077,65 0,64 Splitsko-dalmatinska 1.036,55 20.738,39 5,00 Istarska 381,88 24.643,16 1,55 Dubrovačko-neretvanska 919,85 7.243,73 12,70 Međimurska 620,16 33.520,17 1,85 Grad Zagreb 257,93 14.493,58 1,78 Republika Hrvatska 9.264,75 1.077.403,17 0,86 Table 7: Irrigation in the Republic of Croatia (2003). Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Management
3.2 Health care
3.2.1 Overview of the health care sector possibilities for structural reconstructions. Most of the Healthcare in Croatia is provided by the state and is hospitals were built between 1930s and 1960s and free; private hospitals also exist, and operate in parallel until today remain under constant reconstruction due to the state system, occasionally acting as contractors. to the lack of space and the need for modernization. In total there are 276 doctors per 100,000 people, A considerable number of hospitals are of pavilion which is below average for the EU. The state healthcare type (different wards in different buildings) that makes system employs 70,592 individuals, working across a reconstruction even more difficult and expensive34 In large number of general hospitals, specialised hospitals late 1980s two military hospitals were built and today and public health institutes33. one is turned into clinical hospital center in Zagreb and the other has become a general hospital in Knin. A major problem of a large number of hospitals is At the beginning of 21st century new cycle of hospital related to their age. In Croatia 30% of hospitals in use construction started, but it is far from fulfilling current today, were constructed in the mid-19th century without needs. Particular problem are hospitals for which a
33 Radovic et al., 2012 34 Vodička & Juracic, 1994
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constructions started but were never completed due of disease-bearing insects is also likely to change, to the lack of money and/or political reasons. The encroaching on new areas. An upsurge in cases of university hospital in Zagreb is an excellent example. tick-borne meningoencephalitis is likely as the warmer After more than 30 years of unfinished construction,the temperatures will extend the season and altitude at building has deteriorated, and it is highly questionable which the insect is active. The tiger mosquito (Aedes if such an unpreserved construction can meet modern albopictus), native to Southeast Asia and carrier of a building criteria such as seismic resistance. number of viruses and parasites, was observed for the first time in Croatia in 2004, while there is also a risk that 3.2.2 Impacts and vulnerabilities malaria might affect coastal areas36. An increased incidence of heat waves may lead to higher death rates among the elderly, and the chronically 3.2.3 Adaptation measures ill who are particularly vulnerable in such extreme The current state of many hospitals indicates an urgent weather; however, mortality may be reduced during need for improved hospital design and planning. Since milder winters, which may result in fewer coronary hospitals should be able to remain functional even failures and asthmatic attacks35. under the worst conditions, it is essential that they are built to be resilient to natural disasters. Healthcare Warmer weather may also lead to a higher incidence professionals also need regular training on responding of water- and food-borne diseases, especially to emergencies, and should be educated about the gastrointestinal infections. Allergy patterns are potential increase in certain kinds of hazards associated expected to change, with potentially larger numbers with climate change37. affected by seasonal pollen allergies. The range 36 Ministry of Environmental Protection, Physical Planning and Construction, 2010 35 UNDP, 2008 37 Radovic et al., (2012)
Developing the health care sector to respond to extreme weather:
The following activities are being implemented by the Ministry of Health, along with the Public Health Institutes (national and local) and the World Health Organisation (WHO) in Croatia, to build the capacity of health professionals and the healthcare system: yy Lectures, round-table discussions, and workshops, held for health professionals (general practitioners, epidemiologists and public health workers) and the public, on climate change and health, including at events for World Health Day yy Leaflets, brochures, and other educational materials distributed to the public in drugstores, health institutions, and events such as World Health Day yy Advice for the public during heat waves published on the Internet and distributed to patients in health institutions. yy Advice for the elderly during heat waves distributed in retirement homes and health institutions. yy The MHS announcing high temperature warnings in its biometeorological forecast, and UV risk
Source: Croatian Health Service Yearbook, 2010
3.3 Tourism
3.3.1 Overview of the tourism sector activities along the Croatian coast38. July and August Tourism in Croatia generates about 20% of GDP and are currently the most active months, although the employs almost a third of active employed persons. tourist season normally extends from June until Almost that entire amount is generated by tourism September. In addition to the coastal attractions, there
38 UNDP, 2008.
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are also inland national parks, natural beauty spots 3.3.3 Adaptation measures and cultural heritage popular with tourists. Since so much of the current tourism infrastructure is situated along the coast, it will be important to consider 3.3.2 Impacts and vulnerabilities future changes in sea level, especially sea level rise, Some of the most popular tourist areas are the most when planning future development in this area. Plans to vulnerable to sea level changes, with a great deal of extend main season to April, May and September and tourist infrastructure at risk from coastal flooding if maybe some other months should also be made. The the sea level were to rise. Since sea level rise will be past few years have indicated that June and September slow, and, due to the tectonic nature of the coastline, have a favourable sea and air temperature, both for erratic, there may be time to protect some of this swimming and sunbathing, while July and August are infrastructure39. Other natural attractions (such as becoming more unstable, both in temperature and the Plitvice Lakes) may also suffer from decreased in precipitation extremes. Parts of Croatia such as precipitation and surface runoff. Lika and Gorski Kotar, are now becoming favourable destinations for many tourists during the summer Almost all of the climate models for the region predict months. Due to that fact, more developmental plans considerably warmer temperatures and more heat to boost touristic growth in these parts of the country waves during the summer months. Hotter summers should be developed41,42. may mean that foreign tourists find the temperature uncomfortable, and choose alternative destinations. The Croatian government has the potential to support However, this may simply result in the peak tourist the tourism sector in adapting to climate change, season being extended or changing, and tourists but it is necessary to conduct a thorough overview may also choose to holiday inland in the mountainous to establish the most effective ways for the local and regions of the country where it is cooler40. national government structures to do this. Part of this would involve an examination of the direct and indirect ways in which the government at each level is currently involved in the tourism sector, which should indicate possible ways forward for the government to support the industry in the future43.
41 Ministry of Environmental Protection, Physical Planning and Construction, 2010 39 Ministry of Environmental Protection, Physical Planning and Construction, 2010 42 UNDP, 2008 40 UNDP, 2008 43 Ibid.
3.4 Energy
3.4.1 Overview of the energy sector of electricity from renewable sources. Hydropower Croatia still derives much of its energy requirements and solar power have a leading role up to 1990s in from coal, and imports the majority of its oil from abroad. production of renewable energy. While hydropower However, Croatia is following modern environmental has stagnant trend over last twenty years, solar power trends and slowly but surely increasing production almost declined totally. During the past decade wind
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total Gross 12.175 12.725 13.248 13.976 13.140 13.037 12.462 12.616 13.149 14.669 Production Hydro 6.585 5.903 5.512 7.712 7.125 6.734 4.646 5.626 7.449 9.127 Thermal 5.590 6.821 7.736 6.262 5.996 6.278 7.776 6.946 5.647 5.478 Other 0 1 0 2 19 25 40 44 53 64 Table 8: Production of electric energy in GWh. Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics
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power plants have started to emerge all over the 3.4.3 Adaptation measures Croatian coast promising a new rise in renewable The 2009 Croatia Energy Development Strategy, energy sources. designed to ensure that energy sources are secure for the coming years, makes no mention of climate 3.4.2 Impacts and vulnerabilities change adaptation or extreme weather. This current Although an increase in “clean” energy is very positive EDS definitely must be amended to consider climate from an ecological point of view, the uncertainty of change issues beyond CO2 emissions, and reconsider climate change is forcing further diversification, into a more significant push towards use of geothermal and sources such as geothermal or biomass energy. solar energy. Hydropower, solar power and wind power plants will be most certainly affected by climate change44. New wind power plant, are very susceptible to wind change, both in direction and speed. Both types of Particularly concerning is the drop in hydropower power plants use energy sources that, according potential as a result of diminished precipitation and to predictions, are going to be greatly affected by reduced surface runoff over the coming century: a ongoing climate processes. Better spatial planning reduction of as much as 50% in hydropower output would create opportunity to place power plant on is possible by the end of the 21st century45. The last more suitable locations.46. fully functional hydropower plant in Croatia was built in 1989; hydropower plant Lešće is yet to function at 100% capabilities. However, the predicted increase in the number of warm days is likely to prove beneficial for the solar energy capacities of Croatia.
44 UNDP, 2008 45 Ibid. 46 UNDP, 2008
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4. National climate change and disaster risk reduction strategies and structures in Croatia
4.1 State of knowledge and data availability
Among the general public there is a relatively high level courses available in the area of climate change and of awareness of the issue of climate change, and a sustainable development48. willingness to act; a 2008 survey indicated that close to 90% of respondents would be willing to use sustainable Good data is essential for making informed adaptation transportation, and 86% would be prepared to reduce decisions, and the absence of comprehensive electricity consumption for environmental reasons47. data in some sectors makes adaptation planning While this is a positive sign, there are also indications difficult. Even where data exists, it is not always that the public is not aware of how they can play a part made freely available for study. In particular, the in achieving these aims. raw data from publically-funded studies should be made more straightforward to access49. While some A key part of awareness-raising takes place in data is available from international sources, studies schools. Steps are being taken towards fully undertaken within the country itself are potentially a incorporating climate change into national curricula valuable source of information for making adaptation at every level. At primary level, children are taught decisions. Most in-country research surrounding environmental protection, while climate change is climate change is geared towards emissions beginning to be taught as part of the secondary reductions. Much of this research is supported curriculum. At the university level, there are many by government agencies, including the Croatian Environment Agency and the Ministry for Science, Information and Sports50.
48 UNDP, 2008 49 Ibid. 47 UNDP, 2008 50 Ibid.
4.2 Government strategies and institutional arrangements addressing climate change and disaster risk reduction
Croatia has ratified the UNFCCC as anA nnex 1 country, for Action and has established a National Platform for and in 2010 submitted its fifth national communication to DRR. The Ministry of Environmental Protection, Physical the UNFCCC. It has also ratified the Hyogo Framework Planning and Construction takes the lead on climate
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change related activities, with the National Protection for Adaptation (SEE/CCFAP-A)51 exist to encourage and Rescue Directorate responsible for coordinating cooperation in tackling the climate change issue; disaster response. however, these are not legally binding agreements and therefore not enforceable. Croatia has considerable Most current government strategies relating to potential to develop a low-carbon economy and to climate change in Croatia emphasise mitigation, and begin to actively adapt to climate change, but this there is little mention of the concept of adaptation. is only possible with concerted government effort, The box below gives an overview of the current and, vitally, the development of effective cooperation environmental protection legislation in Croatia, and collaboration between relevant government including legislation surrounding greenhouse gas departments. It is crucial to this end to integrate emissions. As an acceding country to the EU, climate change adaptation in existing policies and to Croatia has adopted the acquis communautaire, foster the elaboration of a national climate change including environmental legislation. adaptation strategy and national climate change adaptation plan52. On a regional level, initiatives such as the South East 51 Available in full online at http://www.ccsd-conference.me/documents/experienc- European Climate Change Framework Action Plan emontenegro/climate-changes/South_East_European_Climate_Change_Framework.pdf 52 UNDP, 2008.
Environmental legislation in Croatia
In accordance of air protection, including controlling and limiting GHG, Croatia has adopted several acts, decision, guides and regulations, outlined below: yy Air Protection Act (OG No. 178/04, 60/08) yy Regulation on the quality of biofuels (OG No. 141/05) yy Regulation on the quality of petroleum-derived liquid fuels (OG No. 53/06, 154/08) yy Regulation on the monitoring of greenhouse gas emissions in the Republic of Croatia (OG No. 01/07) yy Regulation on limit values for pollutant emissions from stationary sources into the air (OG No. 21/07, 150/08) yy Guide for the implementation of the Regulation on limit values of pollutant emissions from stationary sources into the air, Chapter VI (OG No. 21/07) yy Regulation on emission quotas for certain pollutants in the Republic of Croatia (OG No. 141/08) yy Regulation on implementation of the Kyoto Protocol flexible mechanisms(OG No. 142/08) yy Regulation on greenhouse gas emission quotas and the method of emission allowance trading (OG No. 142/08) yy Regulation on amendments to the Regulation on greenhouse gas emission allowances and emissions trading (OG No. 113/10) yy Decision on the adoption of the National Plan for the implementation of Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants (OG No. 145/08) yy Decision on adopting the Plan on reduction of emissions of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and particulate matter from major combustion plants and gas turbines in the territory of the Republic of Croatia (OG No. 151/08) yy Plan on allocation of greenhouse gas emission quotas in the Republic of Croatia (National Allocation Plan) (OG No. 76/09) yy Programme for gradual emission reduction of certain pollutants in the Republic of Croatia for the period until the end of 2010, with emission projections for the period 2010-2020 (OG No. 152/09)
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4.3 The role of civil society and the Red Cross
Croatia has a large number of NGOs dealing with 4.3.1 The role of the Red Cross environmental protection and different aspects of According to Croatian Red Cross law, the Croatian climate change. Around 800 Croatian NGOs deals Red Cross deals with disaster preparedness, disaster with the causes of climate change and environmental risk reduction and disaster relief. Increasingly, climate protection in general on a local, regional and national change is considered as a crucial factor that should level. Environmental education is very well organised, be integrated into disaster risk reduction strategies whether is provided in schools (e.g. the Eco-schools and programmes on national and local levels. In the program or Globe program) or within NGOs itself. Croatian Red Cross strategic framework, policies and strategies of the International Federation of Red Cross Unfortunately, the recent drought, floods, strong and Red Crescent Societies (Federation), the relevance winds and other recent weather extremes show some of disaster risk reduction and climate change are interesting data: the majority of Croatian citizens recognised, such as the overall Strategy 2020 of the are aware of climate change and its effects on local Federation53 and the Framework for Community Safety weather patterns, but what to do or how to adapt and Resilience54. and mitigate such condition is still vague to most of Croatians. The government still has not recognised the importance of education and prevention; in other words, the importance of disaster risk reduction. The result of that is an absence of NGOs dealing with disaster risk reduction. Croatian Red Cross still stands alone concerning DRR issues. 53 See http://www.ifrc.org/en/who-we-are/vision-and-mission/strategy-2020/ 54 Available at http://www.ifrc.org/Global/Case%20studies/Disasters/cs-framework- community-en.pdf
Climate change and the Red Cross
In 2007, at the 30th International Conference of the Red Cross and Red Crescent, the International Committee of the Red Cross, the Federation, National Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies and governments resolved to address the humanitarian impacts of climate change by: yy Raising awareness; yy Working with partners; yy Decreasing vulnerability; yy Assisting the most vulnerable, especially in developing countries; yy Improving preparedness and response; yy Integrating adaptation to climate change into disaster risk reduction and disaster management policies and plans; yy Mobilizing resources and building capacity; yy Complementing and providing input to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Source: Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, 2011, Integrating climate change into Red Cross Red Crescent programmes: from local commitments to global actions, p2
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5. Recommendations
All the available data indicate that the warning signals of to its human resources and geographical position has a climate change exist, and that they are recognised by high natural adaptive capacity, but strong intersectoral the scientific community. In Croatia, various institutes collaboration is needed to realise this. Solutions are and universities collect and analyse data, but they not straightforward and each situation requires a are not systemised in the same manner and they are specific solution. However, when scientific findings are not ready to use and user friendly. Also there is no incorporated to every day solutions and policy know- institutional follow up of scientific data due to the low how is developed Croatia can successfully face the institutional and organizational capacity. Croatia thanks consequences of climate change.
5.1 Policy dialogue: recommendations for decision-makers
yy Common language: It is of great importance to between government, industry, science and other have an understanding between stakeholders communities does not function in the manner that in the process of adapting to climate change. should. Data and information exchange about Different wordings, terms and definitions create climate change topics must be better organised. great problem in communication and often lead yy Planning and climate change: Spatial planning to misunderstanding. So, to start with it would be is the basis for national development whether wise to create a glossary. we are talking about industry, agriculture or yy Data accessibility: There are a great number some other sector. Climate change should of scientific papers on climate change in be important part of spatial plans at national, Croatia in almost all relevant sectors (tourism, regional and local levels. agriculture, health...). The problem lies in yy Scientific society and education: The scientific the inability to get a hold of or to have a community and teachers are not fully supported comprehensive analysis of all papers. There is both financially and logistically by national no database that would be composed solely government to successfully tackle climate change of scientific paper dealing with climate change issues whether at research level or at educational regardless of scientist background. level. Another problem is, climate change per se, yy Linking climate and economy: On more than a it is comprehensive cross-sector, cross-border few occasions we witnessed influence of climate issue and as such it should be treated in scientific change to our economy. It would be prudent to society. In other word more paper should be incorporate not only climate change effects, but written in collaboration between scientists from all natural processes, into business policy with different background. Having said that, it would the intention of better understanding how our be appropriate to organise, ones or twice a economy would function under such unusual year events that would allow easy access to conditions. all relevant data and information, and prompt yy Coordination: It is obvious thorough every networking between stakeholders. day work, that coordination and collaboration
31 CLIMATE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
5.2 Awareness raising: recommendations for the general public55
55 UNDP, 2008
yy Education on reduction of carbon footprint: on the effects and economic costs of climate Develop guidelines for how citizens can get change and Government strategies and future involved in mitigating and adapting to climate plans to tackle climate change. change on an individual level. yy Media and education system: Continue to yy Raise public awareness surrounding climate include climate change adaptation in reporting and change: Implementation of fact-based public school and university curricula. discussions to educate general public of all ages
5.3 Civil society development: recommendations for civil society organizations and the Red Cross
yy Encourage development of climate change yy Bring CSOs into decision-making process: CSOs: Foster establishment of CSOs dealing with Promote evidence-based advocacy and disaster risk reduction, disaster prevention and inclusion of CSOs and the Red Cross in climate change adaptation. decision-making processes. yy Bring climate change adaptation into CSO activities: Integrate climate change in CSOs and Red Cross strategies, policies and programmes to improve service delivery.
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6. References
Ilić M & Orešić, D (2004) Pan-European Transport Corridors and Transport System of Croatia, Hrvatski geografski glasnik 66 2: 5-22
IPCC (1995) Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press
IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press
IPCC (2012) Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press
Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Management (2005) Nacionalni projekt navodnjavanja i gospodarenja poljoprivrednim zemljištem I vodama u Republici hrvatskoj, University of Zagreb Faculty of Agriculture
Ministry of Environmental Protection, Physical Planning and Construction (2010) Fifth National Communication of the Republic of Croatia under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Zagreb
Nejašmić, I. & Mišetić, R. (2004) Buduće kretanje broja stanovnika Hrvatske, Društvena istraživanja 13 4-5: 751-776
Jelić T. & Škrget Đ. (2009) Geography 4, Alfa, Zagreb, Croatia
UNDP (2008) A Climate for Change: Climate change and its impacts on society and economy in Croatia, Human Development Report Croatia 2008, Zagreb: UNDP
Vodička M. & Juracic D. (eds.) (1994) Hospitals (in Croatian) Skolska knjiga, Zagreb, Hrvatska
33 CLIMATE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
Annex 1: Key demographic information
2011/ 1995. 2000. 2005. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2010.(%)
Active population 1 658 028 1 698 829 1 729 312 1 791 546 1 768 928 1 734 879 -2,0 (IX)
Total persons in 1 417 427 1 340 958 1 420 574 1 554 805 1 498 784 1 432 454 -2,0 (IX) employment GDP, current prices (*000 22 122,9 21 511,3 44 815,7 69 920,1 63 478,4 60 829,6 6,2 (I-IV) 000 USD)
GDP, per capita (USD) 4 738 4 910 10 089 15 766 14 332 13 750 /
GDP real growth rate in % 6,8 3,0 4,2 2,4 -5,8 -1,2 0,2 (I-IX)
Industrial production, 0,3 1,6 4,6 1,2 -9,2 -1,4 -1,7 (I-IX)4 growth rate % Exchange rate HRK/EUR, 6,75 7,63 7,4 7,22 7,33 7,28 2,1 (I-IX) period average Exchange rate HRK/USD, 5,22 8,28 5,95 4,96 5,28 5,5 -3,3 (I-IX) period average Trade exchange5, Trade -2 834,3 -3 454,9 -9 787,8 -16 603,3 -10 728,9 -8 247,0 -2,4 (I-IX) balance (*000 000 USD) Current account balance 1 431,1 -532,8 2 455,5 -6 028,3 3 169,0 -918,5 -4,7 (I-IV) (*000 000 USD)2
Unemployment rate 14,5 21,1 17,9 13,2 14,9 17,4 17,4 (X)
NET wage and salary 1 819 3 326 4 376 5 178 5 311 5 343 2,0 (I-VIII) (HRK) Consumer prices – / 4,6 3,3 6,1 2,4 1,1 2,3 (I-X) inflation9 Table 8: Selected economic indicators of Croatian economy. Source: Croatian Chamber of Economy561 2 Sources: CNB 4 Preliminary data 5 Revised data 9 It represents a new measure of inflation and it is being published since January 2004. Data for 2002
56 Available at http://hgk.biznet.hr/hgk/tekst.php?a=b&page=tekst&id=362
34 Republic Of CROATIA
2007. 2008. 2009. Consumption expenditures, kuna 74 006 74 524 76 188 Structure of expenditures, % 100,00 100,00 100,00 Food and non-alcoholic beverages 31,62 32,09 32,06 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 3,88 3,48 3,59 Clothing and footwear 7,93 7,92 7,29 Housing and energy consumption1 13,34 13,83 14,39 Furnishings, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house 5,42 5,34 5,22 Health 2,63 2,78 2,77 Transport 11,54 12,00 10,98 Communication 5,21 5,37 5,14 Recreation and culture 6,22 5,44 5,99 Education 0,88 0,89 1,00 Restaurants and hotels 3,17 3,14 3,11 Miscellaneous goods and services 8,16 7,71 8,45 Table 9: Consumption expenditures, average per household. Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics
1 Housing expenditures do not include imputed rent. Imputed rent is an assumed amount of rent that a household would have to pay if they rented the same type of dwelling they live in for the needs of their own household.
2007. 2008. 2009. At-risk-of-poverty rate, % 17,4 17,4 18,0 At-risk-of-poverty threshold, kuna yy for one-person households 23 969 24 311 26 703 yy for households consisting of two adults and two children 50 336 51 054 56 076 At-risk-of-poverty threshold before social transfers, % Social transfers excluded from income 24,3 25,5 25,8 yy Pensions and social transfers excluded from income 41,6 43,1 41,1 yy Inequality of income distribution –quintile share ratio (S80/S20) 4,3 4,6 4,3 Gini coefficient2 0,28 0,29 0,27 Table 10: Poverty indicators1. Source: Croatian bureau of Statistics Table 11 – Poverty indicators1 (6). 1 The poverty indicators were calculated by using data on the total net income of private households collected through the Household Budget Survey (HBS). 2 The Gini coefficient is a measure of the inequality of income and it ranges between 0 and 1. The higher its value, the higher the income inequality.
2008. 2009. 2010. Gross. Net. Gross. Net. Gross. Net. Agriculture 6 513 4 688 6 509 4 712 6 465 4 692 Industry 6 784 4 723 6 890 4 805 6 465 4 692 Services 6 517 4 484 6 518 4 513 6 575 4 591 Education 7 454 5 156 7 664 5 315 7 641 5 356 Health 8 840 5 983 9 009 6 124 8 911 6 118 Table 11: Average monthly earnings. Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics and Croatia Chamber of Economy
35 CLIMATE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
Indicators 2007. 2008. 2009. Hospitals per 1000000 1,78 1,8 1,44 Hospital beds per 1000000 548,97 547,57 537,49 Physicians per 1000000 265,98 266,12 266,71 Physicians, medical group of specialist per 1000000 78,88 80,14 85,07 Total health expenditure, PPP$ per capita, WHO estimates 1398 1496 / Public sector health expenditure as % of total health expenditure, WHO estimates 87 84,9 / Table 12: Selected health indicators for Croatia. Source: World Health Organization (WHO)
2008. 2009. 2010. Insured persons - average Total 4 365 225 4 343 476 4 348 014 yy Active employed persons 1 582 261 1 546 484 1 493 148 yy Active farmers 52 685 46 732 40 647 yy Pensioners 1 034 635 1 030 736 1 037 643 yy Other insured persons1 505 155 545 706 612 860 yy Family members 1 190 489 1 173 818 1 163 716 Health insurance benefits Temporary work disability Sick leave, ‘000 days 18 148 16 709 14 765 yy Due to accident at work2 / / / yy Due to illness 17 607 16 193 14 314 yy Due to family member care 541 516 451 Average number of absent days 57 796 53 385 47 173 yy Due to accident at work2 / / / yy Due to illness 56 073 51 734 45 733 yy Due to family member care 1 723 1 651 1 440 Pregnancy and maternity leave yy Cases 36 218 34 4893 30 5563 yy Days, ‘000 9 642 9 4203 8 7923 Maternity leave up to child’s three years of age yy Cases 5 997 6 2863 5 4903 yy Days, ‘000 2 592 2 5603 2 4793
Table 13: – Insured persons and temporary work disability. Source: Croatia Institution of Health Protection and Safety at Work1 1 Including unemployed persons and displaced persons. 2 Monthly reports of primary health care doctors, who are fist contacted in the case of an accident at work, are used for obtaining data on accidents at work or professional sickness. Data on days of sick leave due to accidents at work have been presented since 2008 at the newly established Croatian Institute for Health Insurance of Health Protection at Work. 3 Since 1 January 2009, the Maternity and Parental Benefits Act (NN, Nos. 85/08 and 110/08) has been comprehensively defined the rights of parents of new born children, the rights of foster parents and the rights of parents who care for children with serious development handicaps. Consequently, with some variations in terminology, the terms and ways of using the maternity leave have been changed. Therefore, data for 2009 and 2010 are not fully comparable to data of previous years, when those rights were regulated by the Maternity Leave Act and the Health Insurance Act.
1 Available at http://www.hzzzsr.hr/
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Annex 2: Observed climatic trends in Croatia
This annex consists of an extract from the 2010 Gospić up to +0.07°C per 10 years in Zagreb, continued Fifth National Communication on Climate Change and amplified by the beginning of the 21st century and is included to provide more detailed information (Tables 13. and 14). In such way, decadal trends were surrounding the observed climatic trends in the Republic proceeding until 2004 within the range from 0.04°C up of Croatia. Information from this annex is summarised in to 0.08°C, and by 2008 between 0.05°C and 0.10°C. chapter 2 of this report. Prevailing positive trend has become particularly expressed within the last 50 years, even more within “Detection of climate variations and changes in air the last 25 years (Table 14.). Trends of mean annual air temperature and precipitation over the area of Croatia temperature within the 108-year period are statistically since the beginning of the 20th century has been significant at all stations except for Osijek, while within performed according to the long-term meteorological the last 50, i.e. 25 years at all observed stations. The measurements that started during the 19th century at positive temperature trends in the continental part of meteorological stations in different climate regions: Croatia is mostly due to winter trends (+0.06 °C/10 Osijek (continental climate), Zagreb-Grič (continental years in Osijek, +0.13 °C/10 years in Zagreb and climate under a mild maritime influence), Gospić Gospić), while on the Adriatic to summer trends (+0.13 (continental climate of highland Croatia under a strong °C/10 years in Crikvenica and +0.07 °C/10 years in maritime influence), Crikvenica (maritime climate Hvar). The greatest trends were recorded in Zagreb; of eastern coast of the northern Adriatic) and Hvar however, it should take into account that such increase (maritime climate of the Dalmatian area). is partially a result of the urban heat island .
Decadal trends during the 20th century as well as Consequence of the faster atmosphere warming up those till 2008. were compared in order to determine during the last period of time is a result that out of ten the differences that appeared due to the changes in warmest years since the beginning of the 20th century temperature and precipitation regimes at the beginning 7 of them were recorded in Zagreb, 6 in Gospić and of the 21st century (12,13). Crikvenica, 5 in Hvar and 4 in Osijek (Table 16.).
Air temperature Assuming that the warming observed in mean air Increase of mean annual air temperature, which in the temperatures is a result of changes in frequencies of 20th century was between +0.02°C per 10 years in temperature extremes. Analysis of changes in number
Osijek Zagreb – Grič Gospić Crikvenica Hvar 1901. – 2008. (108 years eriod) +0,05 +0,10 +0,06 +0,09 +0,06 1909. – 2008. (100 years period) +0,04 +0,09 +0,07 +0,08 +0,05 1934. – 2008. (75 years period) +0,05 +0,13 +0,09 +0,05 +0,06 1959. – 2008. (50 years period) +0,23 +0,34 +0,32 +0,28 +0,12 1984. – 2008. (25 years period) +0,52 +0,75 +0,69 +0,75 +0,35
Table 14: Trends in mean annual air temperature (°C/10 years) for 108-, 100-, 75-, 50- and 25-years period (Trends significant at the 5% - bold and italic). Source: National Meteorological and Hydrological Service581
58 Available at http://www.meteo.hr/
37 CLIMATE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
Osijek Zagreb – Grič Gospić Crikvenica Hvar Mean air temperature trend 1901.-2000. (°C/10 years) Winter +0,04 +0,09 +0,10 +0,06 +0,04 Spring +0,02 +0,07 +0,00 -0,01 +0,02 Summer +0,03 +0,05 -0,03 +0,07 +0,03 Autum +0,03 +0,05 +0,00 +0,07 +0,05 Year +0,03 +0,07 +0,02 +0,05 +0,04 Mean air temperature trend 1901.-2004. (°C/10 years) Winter +0,04 +0,10 +0,11 +0,07 +0,04 Spring +0,04 +0,09 +0,03 +0,02 +0,04 Summer +0,05 +0,08 +0,02 +0,11 +0,06 Autum +0,03 +0,06 +0,02 +0,08 +0,06 Year +0,04 +0,08 +0,04 +0,07 +0,05 Mean air temperature trend 190.1-2008. (°C/10 years) Winter +0,06 +0,13 +0,13 +0,08 +0,04 Spring +0,05 +0,11 +0,05 +0,04 +0,05 Summer +0,06 +0,09 +0,04 +0,13 +0,07 Autum +0,03 +0,07 +0,03 +0,09 +0,05 Year +0,05 +0,10 +0,06 +0,09 +0,06
Table 15: Trends in mean annual and seasonal air temperature (°C/10 years). (Trends significant at the 5% - bold and italic). Source: National Meteorological and Hydrological Service of days, in which the air temperature exceeds some continental climate (Osijek) and maritime climate of specific values, does not provide any comparison Adriatic islands (Hvar). Therefore, The Expert Team on of observed characteristics in different climate Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices of conditions. Namely, frequency of cold (tmin<0°C) or the World Meteorological Organization - Commission warm days (tmaks≥25°C) significantly differs between for Climatology (WMO-CCl) and Research Programme
Osijek Zagreb – Grič Gospić Crikvenica Hvar Year °C Year °C Year °C Year °C Year °C 2000. 12,9 2000. 13,8 2000. 10,5 1950. 16,0 1945. 19,2 2008. 12,5 2007. 13,6 2008. 10,4 2000. 15,9 1994. 17,5 2007. 12,4 2008. 13,4 2007. 10,3 2007. 15,9 2003. 17,4 1992. 12,3 1994. 13,3 1994. 9,9 2008. 15,8 2000. 17,4 1994. 12,2 2002. 13,2 2002. 9,9 2003. 15,8 1930. 17,3 1934. 12,2 1992. 13,0 1951. 9,9 1951. 15,7 2008. 17,3 1916. 12,1 2003. 12,9 1947. 9,9 1949. 15,7 2007. 17,3 1951. 12,1 2006. 12,7 1928. 9,9 2002. 15,7 1950. 17,3 2002. 12,1 2001. 12,7 2003. 9,9 1943. 15,6 2002. 17,3 1927. 11,9 1950. 12,7 2001. 9,7 2001. 15,6 1947. 17,1
Table 16: Ten warmest years. (period 1991. – 2008. is bolded). Source: National Meteorological and Hydrological Service
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on Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) decrease in annual precipitation amounts is a result of suggested a number of indices of meteorological decline in winter (-2.9% in 10 years) and spring (-2.0% parameters. Suggested indices are related to days in 10 years) precipitation amounts. In the mountainous in which the air temperature exceeds the threshold hinterland (Gospić on the Lika plateau) a decrease specified by the probability of appearance, i.e. in in winter (-2.7% in 10 years) and spring (-2.0% in 10 specific return period. Six indices have been used for years) precipitation amounts is mostly expressed. The the analysis of temperature extremes, four of them with decline in annual amounts of precipitation over the area thresholds specified by percentiles and two of them north of the Sava River results from decrease in spring by fixed thresholds. Three warm temperature indices (Osijek: -4.1% in 10 years and Zagreb-Grič: -1.1% in are warm days and warm nights with maximum and 10 years) and autumn (Osijek: -3.0% in 10 years and minimum air temperature above the 90th percentile Zagreb-Grič: -1.4% in 10 years) precipitation amounts. of the daily temperature distribution in the 1961.- 1990. baseline period, as well as summer days with Decadal trends in annual and seasonal precipitation maximum air temperature higher than 25°C. Three amounts have not been significantly changed cold temperature indices are cold days and cold according to data series prolonged by 2008. (Table nights with maximum and minimum air temperatures 17). Smaller changes are present in Osijek, where below the 10th percentile, as well as frost days with attenuation of negative spring precipitation trend was minimum air temperature lower than 0°C. observed, but still remaining statistically significant, as well as weakening of negative autumn precipitation Within the whole analysed period, a majority of warm trend and strengthening of positive summer trend. temperature indices has a positive trend, while a Negative spring precipitation trend weakened in the majority of cold temperature indices has a negative area of Hvar. trend (exceptions are warm nights Tn10% in Hvar, and summer days in Gospić and frost days in Osijek). Precipitation amounts have large interannual variability, Comparison with trends from earlier periods 1901- both on annual and seasonal scales. Therefore, in 2000. and 1901.-2004. indicates that almost all order to find out position of 10 driest years in the trends by 2008. has been amplified, some of them observed 108-year period, it can be seen that they have become statistically significant, while changes do not occur grouped in some period. During the last in trends of warm temperature indices are greater 18 years, i.e. since the beginning of 1990’s, there was than changes in trends of cold indices. Trends are only one out of three driest years. 2003. is one of 10 much more expressed at the Adriatic, than in the driest years at all locations. Beside this year, there was inland, except in Zagreb, where they are probably a 2000. in Osijek, 2007. and 1994. in Gospić and 1992. result of urban heat island impact. in Hvar. (Table 18.).
Precipitation Variability of annual precipitation amounts in the period During the 20th century annual amounts of precipitation 1901.-2008., expressed by time series of coefficients showed a downward trend in all parts of Croatia, thus of variability, calculated for 30-year periods with one joining the trend of drying across the Mediterranean (Table year shift, indicates a decrease in Zagreb, Gospić and 17.). It is more expressed over the Adriatic (Crikvenica: Crikvenica. Such a decrease was present in Osijek by -1.8% in 10 years, statistically significant and Hvar: the end of the 20th century as well, but the changes -1.2% in 10 years), than in the inland (mountainous since the beginning of the 21st century contribute to an hinterlan– Gospić: -0.8% in 10 years, eastern Slavonija, increase of variability. In Hvar there was an increase of Osijek: -1.3% in 10 years, north-western Croatia, variability in a period from the middle of the 20th century. Zagreb-Grič: -0.3% in 10 years). These are the results of the seasonal precipitation trends which differ among Change in precipitation regime patterns, which can regions. In the area of northern Adriatic (Crikvenica) result in precipitation decrease in Croatia, can be also decrease in all seasonal precipitation amounts has been indicated by tendency in frequency and intensity of observed, mostly expressed during summer (-2.7% precipitation extremes defined by number of days in in 10 years), then in spring (-2.2% in 10 years) and which the precipitation amount Rd exceeds defined winter (-1.8% in 10 years). On Dalmatian islands (Hvar) thresholds (dry days, wet days and very wet days), i.e.
39 CLIMATE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
Osijek Zagreb – Grič Gospić* Crikvenica Hvar Precipitation amount trend 1901.-200.0 (%/10 years) Winter +0,6 -0,3 -2,7 -1,8 -2,9 Spring -4,1 -1,1 -2,0 -2,2 -2,0 Summer +0,7 +1,2 +0,9 -2,7 +2,8 Autum -3,0 -1,4 +0,1 -0,9 -0,4 Year -1,3 -0,3 -0,8 -1,8 -1,2 Precipitation amount trend 1901-2000 (%/10 years) Winter +0,2 -0,4 -2,6 -1,9 -2,4 Spring -3,6 -0,9 -2,0 -2,1 -2,0 Summer +0,8 +0,9 -0,1 -3,4 +2,9 Autum -1,8 -1,0 +0,6 -0,7 -1,0 Year -1,0 -0,3 -0,8 -1,8 -1,3 Precipitation amount trend 1901.-2000. (%/10 years) Winter -0,0 -0,4 -2,9 -1,6 -2,9 Spring -3,2 -0,9 -1,8 -1,9 -1,3 Summer +1,3 +1,1 +0,1 -2,9 +2,9 Autum -2,0 -1,3 -0,2 -1,1 -0,5 Year -0,8 -0,3 -1,0 -1,7 -1,0 * - since 1924. Table 17: Trends in annual and seasonal precipitation amounts (Trends significant at the 5% - bold and italic) Source: National Meteorological and Hydrological Service part of annual precipitation amount occurring during and very wet days Rd ≥ 95th percentile of daily very rainy days, annual maximum 5-day and 1-day amounts, determined by the sample of all precipitation precipitation amounts. Dry days are defined as days in days (Rd≥1.0 mm) within standard reference period which Rd<1.0 mm, wet days have Rd ≥ 75th percentile 1961.-1990.
Osijek Zagreb – Grič Gospić* Crikvenica Hvar Year mm Year mm Year Mm Year Mm Year mm 2000. 316 1949. 581 1983. 910 1949. 704 1983. 384 1921. 422 1973. 607 1953. 973 1945. 726 2003. 431 1983. 467 1971. 616 1949. 1085 2003. 752 1989. 444 1947. 494 1927. 624 1971. 1091 1953. 786 1913. 461 1953. 500 2003. 624 2003. 1099 1971. 8352 1903. 479 1949. 505 1921. 651 2007. 1109 1973. 842 1977. 496 2003. 517 1946. 665 1989. 1119 1956. 850 1938. 505 1971. 519 1942. 671 1994. 1121 1921. 861 1946. 542 1928. 522 1938. 688 1975. 1135 1983. 877 1950. 557 1924. 523 1911. 691 1946. 1136 1920. 882 1992. 563 * - since 1924. Table 18: Ten driest years. (period 1991. – 2008. is bolded). Source: National Meteorological and Hydrological Service
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In the period 1901-2008 there was statistically significant Dry spells increase of annual number of dry days (Rd<1.0 mm) in Detected significant positive trend in number of dry days the whole area of Croatia, mostly negative trend of wet in the area of Croatia raises the question on frequency days (Rd≥R75%), significant in Osijek and Crikvenica, of consecutive dry days. Variations of dry sequences while in the number of very wet days (Rd≥R95%) there are analysed employing daily precipitation data from was no change (Table 19). Fraction of annual total the period 1961.-2000. at 25 meteorological stations, precipitation due to very wet days (R95%T) is almost which uniformly comprise main climate zones in Croatia unaltered. Absolute annual 1-day and 5-day maxima (continental, mountain and maritime). Dry spell is indicate large interannual variability, with weak positive defined as a sequence of days with daily precipitation trend only on Dalmatian islands, while in the inland and amount (Rd) less than defined threshold. Seasonal and Littoral there is a decrease of precipitation amounts annual mean and maximum durations of dry spells have during heavy precipitation events, statistically significant been analysed for precipitation threshold of 1 mm and for 5-day maxima in Osijek (-1.0 mm/10 years) and 10 mm. Trend is expressed as departure per decade in 1-day maxima in Gospić (-1.4 mm/10 years). relation to the respective long-term mean value.
Osijek Zagreb – Grič Gospić* Crikvenica Hvar Trend 1901. – 2000. (10 years) DD (days) +0,9 +1,5 +1,6 +2,1 +1,1 R75% (days) -0,3 +0,0 -0,2 -0,5 -0,3 R95% (days) -0,1 +0,1 +0,1 -0,1 -0,0 R95%T (%) -0,3 +0,4 +0,5 +0,1 +0,3 Rx1d (mm) -0,4 +0,0 -1,3 +1,4 +0,5 Rx5d (mm) -2,2 -0,4 -0,3 -2,7 -0,7 Trend 1901. – 2008. (10 years) DD (days) +1,0 +1,4 +1,4 +2,3 +1,1 R75% (days) -0,2 +0,1 -0,2 -0,5 -0,2 R95% (days) -0,1 +0,1 +0,0 -0,1 -0,0 R95%T (%) -0,2 +0,3 +0,1 -0,0 +0,3 Rx1d (mm) +0,2 -0,2 -1,4 +0,8 +0,9 Rx5d (mm) -1,0 -0,6 +0,3 -2,4 +0,6 * - since 1924. Table 19; Trends in indices of precipitation extremes (DD – dry days, R75% - wet days, R95% - very wet days, R95%T – annual precipitation fraction due to very wet days, Rx1d – annual 1-day precipitation maxima, Rx5d – annual 5-day precipitation maxima). (Trends significant at the 5% - bold and italic). Source: National Hydrological and Meteorological Service
As seen from above, in the area of drying such as Results of trend analysis indicate prevailing increase of Croatia there is no signal of major secular changes in mean annual duration of dry spells with Rd < 1 mm . extremes related to the high amounts of precipitation It is statistically significant in Istria (5 to 6%/10 years) and frequency of wet and very wet days over the larger and on southern islands (Hvar and Lastovo 5%/10 part of Croatia. The reduction in in the annual amounts years).Increase of dry spells on annual basis is a result of precipitation can be attributed to changes in the of prevailing increase in all seasons, except in autumn, frequency of low-intensity rain days and significant when negative trend has been observed. The most increase in incidence of dry days all over Croatia. significant changes have been detected in spring, especially in northern Adriatic (8 to 11%/10 years). Analysis of annual maximum dry spells with Rd < 1 mm does not reveal any significant positive or negative
41 CLIMATE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
trend in Croatia. Positive trend prevails in spring and it is area of Slavonija (10 to 11%/10 years). Maximum dry statistically significant in northern Adriatic (9 to 11%/10 spells have being increased along the coast (10 to 11 years), while negative trend prevails in autumn, which %/10 years), while reduced in the inland (8 %/10 years). is significant only in Rijeka, Šibenik and Osijek (9 to Such annual trend of maximum dry spells is mostly 12%/10 years). contributed by summer variations. Prevailing increase of dry spells at the Adriatic, as well as poorly expressed Analysis of annual mean durations of dry spells for trend in the continental area contribute to the fact that daily precipitation threshold of 10 mm indicates Croatia remains within the transitional area between the prevailing positive trend in Croatia, significant in Istria northern Europe with general tendency of precipitation and Dubrovnik (6 to 8%/10 years). Negative, but increase, and the drying Mediterranean.” statistically insignificant trend has been observed only in lowlands of Croatia. Statistical significance of trend Source: Ministry of Environmental Protection, Physical at annual scale is mostly forced by winter and summer Planning and Construction (2010) Fifth National significant increase of mean dry spells. Still, positive Communication of the Republic of Croatia under the trend, statistically the most significant one, has been United Nations Framework Convention on Climate observed in spring; while in autumn, durations of mean Change, Zagreb, pp131-149 dry spells with Rd < 10 mm decline, especially in the
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Annex 3: Education in the republic of Croatia
Croatian educational system consists of four level, Binary system: university and preschool level, primary school level, high school level professional studies and faculty level or according to International Standard Croatia has a binary higher education system, meaning Classification of Education six levels. that prospective students can choose between two types of higher education studies: Preschool upbringing consists of education and care of yy University studies consisting of academic preschool children trough educational, health protection, programmes that are conducted solely at nutrition and social care programs. Preschool level universities attends children from sixth months up to six year of age. yy Professional studies consisting of professional programmes conducted at polytechnics or Basic education or primary school level education colleges of applied sciences (exceptionally, is eight year program in language and literature, professional programmes can also be natural science, art, music, mathematics, informatics, implemented at universities). chemistry and health. This level is free and obligatory for all children from six up to fifteen years of age. The Bologna Process in Croatia The Bologna Process, following the Bologna Declaration High school level can be divided in two parts according of 1999, is a process aimed at harmonising the systems to type of education, gymnasium and specialised of higher education in Europe in order to create a schools. Gymnasiums are knowledge oriented while European Higher Education Area. The Bologna Process specialised schools are capability and skills oriented. aims to lead to greater compatibility and comparability of Both are precursors for further education. higher education systems in Europe and thereby make it easier for learners to be mobile and for institutions The Croatian higher education system has a long to attract students and scholars from other countries educational tradition preserved primarily through the and continents. The higher education system in Croatia work of its public universities, which are (in alphabetical has undergone a comprehensive reform within the order): J.J. Strossmayer University of Osijek, Juraj framework of the Bologna Process. The Croatian higher Dobrila University of Pula, University of Dubrovnik, education system is now structured according to three University of Rijeka, University of Split, University of cycles (undergraduate, graduate and postgraduate) Zadar and University of Zagreb. The University of Zadar and higher education studies in Croatia are organised was the first university in Croatia, founded in 1396. It according to the system of transferable credits (ECTS), remained active until 1807, when other higher education thus making it easier for international students (from institutions took over the activities of the University until Europe and beyond) to study in Croatia and have their the foundation of the renewed University of Zadar in studies recognised in their home countries. 2002. Private and public higher education The University of Zagreb, founded in 1669, is the institutions oldest continuously operating university in South Croatia has both public and private higher education Eastern Europe. institutions. Most Croatian universities are public institutions. However, private university education has recently started to develop in Croatia and two private universities have been established (Dubrovnik
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International University and Catholic University of on type of educational institution and educational level. Croatia). Regarding higher education institutions For example climate change in primary school is part providing professional studies, the picture is more of curricula of geography and in some small extent of varied. Almost all polytechnics are public institutions, nature, biology and chemistry. But primary school has while most colleges of applied sciences are private dedicated week for e.g. ozone, water and mountains institutions. Both polytechnics and colleges of applied and during that week all teachers and pupils are involved sciences provide first and second cycle professional in mentioned topics, regardless of subjects. study programmes – these institutions differ only in the number of study programmes they provide, not in the At the University level situation is little different, because type of programmes56. every University and faculty has right to propose its own courses. Practice is that almost every faculty Climate change topics are present in national curricula has at least one course involved in climate change, throughout educational level. Depth of topics depends whether is nature science kind of faculty, technical or health sciences.
56 http://www.studyincroatia.hr/studying-in-croatia/croatian-higher-education-system
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46 www.seeclimateforum.org