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Croatia: National Climate Vulnerability Assessment (ENG) REPUBLIC OF CROATIA CLIMATE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT REPUBLIC OF CROATIA CLIMATE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT REPUBLIC OF CROATIA © Zavisa Simac, Ksenija Vitale. Climate Vulnerability Assessment: Croatia. Zagreb, May 2012 Copies of all or part of this study may be made for non-commercial use, providing the source is acknowledged. The SEEFCCA would appreciate receiving details of its use. Requests for commercial reproduction should be directed to the SEEFCCA at [email protected]. The opinions and recommendations expressed in this study do not necessarily represent the official policy of the SEEFCCA or individual National Red Cross Societies or project partners in this IPA project. The designations used do not imply the expression of any opinion on the part of SEEFCCA concerning the legal status of a territory or of its authorities. The copyright of each photo used in this study is indicated. This publication has been produced with the assistance of the European Union. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of Zaviša Simac and Ksenija Vitale and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union. www.seeclimateforum.org www.facebook.com/seeforumoncca [email protected] Editor: Croatian Red Cross Author: Zaviša Simac, Ksenija Vitale Advisors: Sonja Greiner, Marinko Metlicic, Louisa Whitlock Design: Imre Sebestyén, jr. / UNITgraphics.com Cover image: © iStockphoto.com/enderbirer Print: UVEZ Ltd. Zaprešić, Hrvatska REPUBLIC OF CROATIA ACRONYMS CBS Croatian Bureau of Statistics CDM Clean Development Mechanism CEA Croatian Environmental Agency CFC Chlorofluorocarbons CLIVAR Research Programme on Climate Variability and Predictability CRCS Croatia Red Cross Society DRR Disaster Risk Reduction FEEC Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Computing GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse Gasses GWh Gigawatt Hour LULUCF Land Use Change and Forestry MAB Man and Biosphere Programme MENP Ministry of Environmental and Nature Protection MFCAL Multifunctional character of agriculture and land MHS Meteorological and Hydrological Service MRMI Medical Response to Major Incidents MSES Ministry of Science, Education and Sport NGO Non Governmental Organisation SEEFCCA South East European Forum on Climate Change Adaptation TFR Total Fertility Rate UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WHO World Health Organisation WMO-CCl World Meteorological Organization Commission for Climatology 5 CLIMATE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The writing of this Climate Vulnerability Assessment Economic Promotion of the Austrian Federal Economic was made possible through the support of the following Chamber and the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF). financial contributions: This project is co-funded by the European Union, Instrument for Pre-Accession We express our gratitude to all participants in the Assistance (IPA), and implemented with further funds project. provided by the Austrian Red Cross, the Institute for Preface Climate change has manifested itself in the form of rising The CRCS is mandated by its constitution to undertake temperatures (often referred to as global warming) that disaster preparedness and response activities in the has far reaching implications on the delicate balance country. However, climate change impacts such more of nature that dictates our climatic systems. Globally, severe and frequent natural hazards, are expected climate change has resulted in the reduction of land and to pose challenges to CRCS programmes. Therefore sea ice and snow mass. The melting ice has resulted the strategy is to make climate change an integral in rising sea levels that are putting Croatian coast and part of CRCS programming and incorporate disaster islands at great risk. Heat waves have become frequent risk reduction (DRR), to go beyond preparedness and and lead to increased deaths among the elderly and response activities. populations with health issues. CRCS proposed activities which will, hopefully, lead Climate change is anticipated to have far reaching to a resilient society. Due to the impacts of climate effects on the sustainable development of Croatia. change and the increase of uncertainty in the weather, The economy of Croatia is dependent on agricultural the existing coping strategies that communities production and tourism. Extreme climate variability have in place, may become insufficient. Vulnerability (droughts and floods, sunny days and temperature) to climate change impacts usually occurs due to have a large negative effect on the county’s socio- variation in frequency and duration of those changes economic development. This is likely to worsen with or because people are constrained economically, expected climate change impacts because they have socially or politically from responding adequately fewer resources to adapt socially, technologically and to those changes. Diversification of community financially. Due to climate change much agricultural livelihoods and resources, improved infrastructure, land will be lost, with shorter growing seasons and resilient institutions and strengthening of local lower yields. The overexploitation of land resources in knowledge can contribute to reduced vulnerability, combination with poor spatial planning, pose additional while reduction of access to natural resources or threats. In addition, rising temperatures are changing practices incompatible with local customs, traditions the geographical distribution of climate-related disease or knowledge can increase vulnerability. vectors (e.g. malaria) which are migrating to new areas and higher altitude densely populated areas. 6 REPUBLIC OF CROATIA SCOPE aND PUrPOSE OF THiS CVa This climate vulnerability assessment report is a This study focuses on: publication under the Instrument for Pre-Accession y Overview of present and future climate risks in the Assistance (IPA) project “South East European Forum country on Climate Change Adaptation” (SEEFCCA). Within this y Assessment of most important climate change regional project, four national civil society organisation impacts (negative and positive) (CSO) networks on climate change adaptation in y The country’s action to tackle climate change Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia have including considerations of national policies, been established to strengthen civil society and tackle strategies and plans climate change through awareness-raising and policy y Identifying vulnerable sectors such as public dialogue on national and regional levels. health, energy, agriculture and tourism y Vulnerability to natural hazards The recommendations of this report should foster the y Identifying most vulnerable regions in the country definition of climate change related initiatives and guide y Recommendations regarding adaptation strategies the work of national CSO networks on Climate Change y Identifying capacities of civil society organisations Adaptation,including the Netowrk for Climate Change y identifying gaps in horizontal collaboration between Adaptation - Croatia. The results of this document government sector are also integrated in the regional synthesis climate y Identifying gaps in collaboration between vulnerability assessment report that brings together the government, scientific and economy sectors findings of national climate vulnerability assessments in Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia. This national climate vulnerability assessment shall raise awareness among civil society organizations and The IPA project “South East European Forum on Climate public stakeholders regarding the risks and impacts Change Adaptation“ 2011-2012 is implemented by of a changing climate. It shall be used primarily as a Croatia Red Cross, Macedonia Red Cross,Montenegro background document for policy dialogue, lobbying Red Cross, the NGOs Environmental Improvement and building of a strong civil society for climate Center and WWF in Serbia and coordinated by the change adaptation. Austrian Red Cross. Other partners in this project include the Institute for Economic Promotion of the Austrian The objective of this consultancy is to undertake a Federal Economic Chamber, the Red Cross/Red country-wide assessment and to provide an overview Crescent Climate Centre in The Hague (Netherlands), of the impacts of climate change and variability in the the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) Danube- social, health, ecological and economic sectors. The Carpathian Programme and the WWF Romania. study shall identify most vulnerable sectors, possible knowledge gaps and adaptation capacities to negative impacts of climate change. Furthermore, it should allow for identification of cross-border action to address sectorial and regional vulnerabilities to climate change, taking into account existing national and regional initiatives and cooperation. 7 CLIMATE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGy aND DEVELOPMENT PrOCESS This report was prepared by the authors with the with local experts and other stakeholders. The report assistance of members of the Climate Change focuses on specific sectors identified by members of Adaptation Network – Croatia. The report was based the Climate Change Adaptation Network – Croatia, and on a desk study of the available literature and further the recommendations were developed from the existing information was drawn from interviews and discussion literature and approved by network members. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Introduction: Climate change National climate change
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