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Iraq: Democracy Or Civil War? Hearing IRAQ: DEMOCRACY OR CIVIL WAR? HEARING BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON NATIONAL SECURITY, EMERGING THREATS, AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS OF THE COMMITTEE ON GOVERNMENT REFORM HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED NINTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION SEPTEMBER 15, 2006 Serial No. 109–250 Printed for the use of the Committee on Government Reform ( Available via the World Wide Web: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/congress/index.html http://www.house.gov/reform U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 39–536 PDF WASHINGTON : 2008 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512–1800; DC area (202) 512–1800 Fax: (202) 512–2104 Mail: Stop IDCC, Washington, DC 20402–0001 VerDate 11-MAY-2000 09:51 Jun 16, 2008 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00001 Fmt 5011 Sfmt 5011 C:\DOCS\39536.TXT KATIE PsN: KATIE COMMITTEE ON GOVERNMENT REFORM TOM DAVIS, Virginia, Chairman CHRISTOPHER SHAYS, Connecticut HENRY A. WAXMAN, California DAN BURTON, Indiana TOM LANTOS, California ILEANA ROS-LEHTINEN, Florida MAJOR R. OWENS, New York JOHN M. MCHUGH, New York EDOLPHUS TOWNS, New York JOHN L. MICA, Florida PAUL E. KANJORSKI, Pennsylvania GIL GUTKNECHT, Minnesota CAROLYN B. MALONEY, New York MARK E. SOUDER, Indiana ELIJAH E. CUMMINGS, Maryland STEVEN C. LATOURETTE, Ohio DENNIS J. KUCINICH, Ohio TODD RUSSELL PLATTS, Pennsylvania DANNY K. DAVIS, Illinois CHRIS CANNON, Utah WM. LACY CLAY, Missouri JOHN J. DUNCAN, JR., Tennessee DIANE E. WATSON, California CANDICE S. MILLER, Michigan STEPHEN F. LYNCH, Massachusetts MICHAEL R. TURNER, Ohio CHRIS VAN HOLLEN, Maryland DARRELL E. ISSA, California LINDA T. SANCHEZ, California JON C. PORTER, Nevada C.A. DUTCH RUPPERSBERGER, Maryland KENNY MARCHANT, Texas BRIAN HIGGINS, New York LYNN A. WESTMORELAND, Georgia ELEANOR HOLMES NORTON, District of PATRICK T. MCHENRY, North Carolina Columbia CHARLES W. DENT, Pennsylvania ——— VIRGINIA FOXX, North Carolina BERNARD SANDERS, Vermont JEAN SCHMIDT, Ohio (Independent) BRIAN P. BILBRAY, California DAVID MARIN, Staff Director LAWRENCE HALLORAN, Deputy Staff Director BENJAMIN CHANCE, Chief Clerk PHIL BARNETT, Minority Chief of Staff/Chief Counsel SUBCOMMITTEE ON NATIONAL SECURITY, EMERGING THREATS, AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS CHRISTOPHER SHAYS, Connecticut, Chairman KENNY MARCHANT, Texas DENNIS J. KUCINICH, Ohio DAN BURTON, Indiana TOM LANTOS, California ILEANA ROS-LEHTINEN, Florida BERNARD SANDERS, Vermont JOHN M. MCHUGH, New York CAROLYN B. MALONEY, New York STEVEN C. LATOURETTE, Ohio CHRIS VAN HOLLEN, Maryland TODD RUSSELL PLATTS, Pennsylvania LINDA T. SANCHEZ, California JOHN J. DUNCAN, JR., Tennessee C.A. DUTCH RUPPERSBERGER, Maryland MICHAEL R. TURNER, Ohio STEPHEN F. LYNCH, Massachusetts JON C. PORTER, Nevada BRIAN HIGGINS, New York CHARLES W. DENT, Pennsylvania EX OFFICIO TOM DAVIS, Virginia HENRY A. WAXMAN, California R. NICHOLAS PALARINO, Staff Director and Counsel KALEB REDDEN, Professional Staff Member ROBERT A. BRIGGS, Clerk ANDREW SU, Minority Professional Staff Member (II) VerDate 11-MAY-2000 09:51 Jun 16, 2008 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00002 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 C:\DOCS\39536.TXT KATIE PsN: KATIE C O N T E N T S Page Hearing held on September 15, 2006 ..................................................................... 1 Statement of: Ajami, Dr. Fouad, Director of Middle East Studies, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University; Dr. Jim Fearon, Gabelle professor in the School of Humanities and Social Science, and professor of political science, Stanford University; Ambassador Peter Galbraith, senior diplomatic fellow, Center for Arms Control and Nu- clear Non-Proliferation, former U.S. Ambassador to Croatia ................... 43 Ajami, Dr. Fouad ....................................................................................... 43 Fearon, Dr. Jim ......................................................................................... 54 Galbraith, Ambassador Peter ................................................................... 69 Letters, statements, etc., submitted for the record by: Ajami, Dr. Fouad, Director of Middle East Studies, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, prepared statement of ..................................................................................................................... 46 Fearon, Dr. Jim, Gabelle professor in the School of Humanities and Social Science, and professor of political science, Stanford University, prepared statement of ................................................................................... 57 Galbraith, Ambassador Peter, senior diplomatic fellow, Center for Arms Control and Nuclear Non-Proliferation, former U.S. Ambassador to Cro- atia, prepared statement of .......................................................................... 72 Kucinich, Hon. Dennis J., a Representative in Congress from the State of Ohio, prepared statement of .................................................................... 12 Shays, Hon. Christopher, a Representative in Congress from the State of California, prepared statement of ........................................................... 4 (III) VerDate 11-MAY-2000 09:51 Jun 16, 2008 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00003 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 C:\DOCS\39536.TXT KATIE PsN: KATIE VerDate 11-MAY-2000 09:51 Jun 16, 2008 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00004 Fmt 5904 Sfmt 5904 C:\DOCS\39536.TXT KATIE PsN: KATIE IRAQ: DEMOCRACY OR CIVIL WAR? FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2006 HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, SUBCOMMITTEE ON NATIONAL SECURITY, EMERGING THREATS, AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, COMMITTEE ON GOVERNMENT REFORM, Washington, DC. The subcommittee met, pursuant to notice, at 10:05 a.m., in room 2154, Rayburn House Office Building, Hon. Christopher Shays (chairman of the subcommittee) Presiding. Present: Representatives Shays, Kucinich, and Van Hollen. Staff present: J. Vincent Chase, chief investigator; R. Nicholas Palarino, Ph.D., staff director; Kaleb Redden and Alex Manning, professional staff members; Robert A. Briggs, analyst; Robert Kelley, chief counsel; Michael Girbov, graduate assistant; Andrew Su, minority professional staff member; and Jean Gosa, minority assistant clerk. Mr. SHAYS. A quorum being present, the Subcommittee on Na- tional Security, Emerging Threats, and International Relations hearing entitled, ‘‘Iraq: Democracy or Civil War? What are the Con- sequences of Leaving Iraq,’’ is called back to order. This is an ex- tremely important topic, as I think we all can agree, and thus we want the record to be complete. Today’s hearing is a continuation of both Monday and Wednes- day’s hearing, but a continuation of Wednesday’s hearing. At the end of today we will adjourn. At the start of each reconvening ses- sion, Members have the opportunity to make opening statements and I will begin with my statement. Today we convene for the final day of our 3-day hearing, ‘‘Iraq: Democracy or Civil War?’’ examining security force levels, prospects for national reconciliation and the consequence of leaving Iraq im- mediately, later but still prematurely, or when Iraqis are capable of taking over for Coalition forces. The conflict in Iraq finds United States and Coalition forces up against increasing insurgent sectarian and terrorist violence. Thomas Friedman of the New York Times, who has supported the U.S.’ objective to foster progressive democracy in the Middle East, bluntly stated, ‘‘it is now obvious that we are not midwifing democ- racy in Iraq, we are baby-sitting a civil war.’’ While some may take issue with Mr. Friedman’s choice of words, the broad contours of his point are clear: The violence in Iraq con- tinues, if not increases; the new Iraqi leadership has not yet shown the political will to confront it, and efforts to promote peace and de- mocracy are stalled. (1) VerDate 11-MAY-2000 09:51 Jun 16, 2008 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00005 Fmt 6633 Sfmt 6633 C:\DOCS\39536.TXT KATIE PsN: KATIE 2 Our witnesses this past Monday came to different conclusions about security in Iraq, but one thing was clear from their testi- mony. Our current baseline for overall security forces is inad- equate. We do not have enough Coalition forces in Iraq. In addition, it is clear to me, based on my 14 visits to Iraq and all our hearings, the 325,500 projected Iraqi security force level to be reached in December of this year will be inadequate and not allow us to bring most of our troops home. At our second session this past Wednesday, officials from the De- partment of State and the U.S. Agency for International Develop- ment and a panel of distinguished Iraqis testified on the prospects, timing, and conditions for achieving national reconciliation and a permanent constitution. Ambassador David Satterfield, the senior advisor on Iraq to the Secretary of State, told us that quashing military violence is a priority—excuse me, told us that quashing militia violence is a priority, but that all of the tough decisions cur- rently facing Iraqis, standing down militias, sharing the oil wealth, federalism and the rollback of debaathification are parts of the so- lution. He concluded that a grand bargain incorporating all of the parts would be required to achieve lasting reconciliation. Our second panel on Wednesday comprised of Dr. Hajim Al- Hasani, former Speaker of the Iraqi Parliament and currently a Sunni member of Parliament; Mr. Karim Al-Musawi, Washington representative of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq; and Mr. Qubad Talabany, Washington representative of the Kurdish Region Government and
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