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EAST ASIA FORUM QUARTERLY JANUARY — MARCH 2018 Relevance at Risk Picture: Jorge Silva / Reuters EASTECONOMICS, POLITICS and PUBLICASIA POLICY IN East ASIA andFORUM the PACIFIC Vol.10 No.1 January–March 2018 $9.50 Quarterly Why ASEAN matters Gary Clyde Hufbauer Success ensures long-term importance to the US Jayant Menon Trade: regional means, global objectives Tan See Seng A defence of ADMM Plus Amy E. Searight How ASEAN matters in the age of Trump ... and more ASIAN REVIEW — Gareth Evans: Australia and geopolitical transition Stephen Costello: Only Seoul can lead Korean integration EASTASIAFORUM CONTENTS 3 CHONG JA IAN Quarterly Still in the driver’s seat or asleep at the ISSN 1837-5081 (print) wheel? ISSN 1837-509X (online) 6 GARY CLYDE HUFBAUER From the Editors’ Desk Success ensures long-term importance to the US In recent times we’ve seen the United States retreat from leading 7 JAYANT MENON the global order and apparently reversing its pivot to Asia; the rise Regional means and global objectives of China with its aggressive stance on the South China Sea and its 9 ANTHONY MILNER infrastructure development ‘carrot’, the Belt and Road Initiative; a Culture and values central to creating deeper putative ‘Quad’ configuration of Indo-Pacific power around the US, partnership India, Japan and Australia; and a hot spot in North Korea. Given all 11 AMY E. SEARIGHT this and continued US–China rivalry for regional leadership, what How ASEAN matters in the age of Trump role can ASEAN play? How viable is ASEAN centrality, given the 13 GARETH EVANS diversity of its members and its new challenges? ASIAN REVIEW: Australia in an age of In this EAFQ we examine these questions first from the outside, geopolitical transition comparing the substance of US repositioning with its rhetoric 15 PHILIPS J. VERMONTE (Hufbauer and Searight) and how Australia, like the rest of the region, ASIAN REVIEW: Managing the must prepare itself to live in Asia without the United States. This superpower transition will require being less reliant on the United States and engaging with 17 STEPHEN coSTELLO China while strengthening relations with regional partners, such as ASIAN REVIEW: Only Seoul can lead ASEAN, and possibly the Indo-Pacific group (Evans, Milner). North Korean integration Korea plays into these uncertainties (Costello). 20 MUHAMMAD SINATRA What are the pillars of ASEAN cooperation, and the ASEAN plus ASIAN REVIEW: A long election season cooperation mechanisms, incorporating dialogue partners but with looms for Indonesia ASEAN ‘centrality’? The value of ASEAN economic integration to 22 KUIK CHENG-CHWEE the multilateral trade liberalisation agenda, the challenges ahead for Power transitions threaten ASEAN’s hedging deeper integration beyond the border (Menon) and the importance of role the momentum for both in negotiating the Regional Comprehensive 24 JOHN BLAXLAND AND Economic Partnership (RCEP) (Hufbauer) are one element. Others, GREG RAYMOND such as the ASEAN Regional Forum and ASEAN Defence Ministers Prosperity and protection: ASEAN through Thai eyes Meeting Plus, ensure continuation of ASEAN’s balancing role. But they will both need to be strengthened and extended to deal with 26 TAN SEE SENG issues like the South China Sea (Kuik, Tan), counter-terrorism and A defence of ADMM Plus combating intolerance (Jayakumar). To not be eclipsed, ASEAN needs 28 SHASHI JAYAKUMAR to reposition significantly (Chong, Vermonte). Rethinking ASEAN’s approach to We examine key member-state commitment to ASEAN—with counter-terrorism Vietnam’s view of ASEAN as a buffer in great power dynamics 30 HUONG LE THU (Huong) and Thailand seeing ASEAN’s value for regional prosperity Vietnam’s experience, a reference point for and security (Blaxland and Raymond)—and offer a caution on Australia expectations of Indonesian leadership, given its political election cycle (Sinatra). COVER: Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte, left, chats with Indonesian President Joko Widodo at the presidential John Blaxland and Mari Pangestu palace in Jakarta in September 2016. Both nations are key members of ASEAN. Picture: Darren Whiteside, Reuters. Panel picture Page 4: Chiradech Chotchuang, Shutterstock. 2 EAST ASIA FORUM QUARTERLY JANUARY — MARCH 2018 relevaNce at rISk PICtuRE: JORgE SIlva / REutERS taking it easy in a parking site at a rice mill in Chainat province, thailand. Still in the driver’s seat or asleep at the wheel? CHONG JA IAN ASEAN is unlikely, Southeast Asian common concerns and advance shared states interested in maintaining an interests. SEAN’s role as a platform for active role in shaping regional affairs ASEAN enabled what were A projecting Southeast Asia’s may have to start looking beyond relatively new, developing and in international influence is a challenge. ASEAN to do so—even at the expense some cases small states collectively Much of this has to do with growing of ASEAN centrality. to play a sort of quasi-middle power divergence in members’ economic and Among ASEAN’s greatest successes role with which more powerful political interests, compounded by has been to reduce the possibility of actors have to contend. This was the consequences of an increasingly war among its members. The mutual apparent in ASEAN’s successful ascendant China and sharpening accommodation among members ten-year international isolation of US–China rivalry. Differing interests contributed to another of the group’s Soviet-backed Vietnam and the impede the group’s effectiveness in a major accomplishments: as a platform Hanoi-sponsored Cambodian regime, changing world. Given that reform of for member states to project their conducted in conjunction with the EAST ASIA FORUM QUARTERLY JANUARY — MARCH 2018 3 United States and China. saw ASEAN expand to cover most of EASTASIAFORUM ASEAN may no longer inhabit such Southeast Asia with the incorporation Quarterly a sweet spot. of Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia and Established at the height of the Vietnam—the grouping’s former Cold War, ASEAN was entrenched adversary. EDITORIAL STAFF around an understanding among The question for ASEAN now Issue Editors conservative, anti-communist elites is whether its formula for success John Blaxland is Professor of with at least some authoritarian remains relevant. Finding common International Security and Intelligence sympathies. These elites accepted ground on pressing issues has Studies and Director of the ANU autonomy, mutual non-intervention, become a growing challenge, the Southeast Asia Institute. consensus on issues that required usual platitudes about solidarity and Mari Pangestu is Professor at the collective action and mutual restraint centrality notwithstanding. Recent University of Indonesia and former Indonesian Minister of Trade and from the use of force as the basis for efforts to manage disputes have had Tourism and Creative Industry. coordination, if not cooperation. Such limited success, as demonstrated Series Editors commitments reduced tensions among by the decades-long processes Peter Drysdale, Head, East Asia Forum member governments and enabled surrounding the Declaration of and East Asian Bureau of Economic them to focus on consolidating Conduct of Parties and the Code of Research, Crawford School of Public domestic political authority, economic Conduct over the South China Sea. Policy, ANU. development and, where convenient, Even the handling of trade Shiro Armstrong, Co-director, diplomatic cooperation. liberalisation, human trafficking, Australia-Japan Research Centre, and ASEAN successfully carved out trans-boundary haze, over-fishing Editor of East Asia Forum, Crawford an area of steady economic growth and large-scale human rights abuses School of Public Policy, ANU. and calm at a time when wars were within ASEAN have seen slow actual Editorial Staff Coordination: Brandon Smith. raging in Indochina and China was in progress. That these issues intersect Editing: Rosa Bishop, Nicol Brodie, the throes of the Cultural Revolution. with the dynamics associated with the Alison Darby, Oliver Friedmann, Sam As a result external actors, including rise of China and US–China rivalry Hardwick, Hannah Harmelin, Sarah the major powers, accepted ASEAN further complicates matters, given the O’Dowd, Nishanth Pathy, Michael prerogatives in Southeast Asia. potential for division stemming from Wijnen, Catherine Yen, Ebony Young, ANU. Riding on ASEAN’s Cold War Chinese and US pressure. successes, members consolidated the ASEAN’s increased diversity makes Editorial Advisers: Peter Fuller, Max Suich. group’s position as East Asia’s premier the group more susceptible to stasis. regional organisation—due partially to Production: Peter Fuller, Words & Pics. the absence of similar arrangements Email [email protected], [email protected]. in Northeast Asia. Other actors, including major powers like the EASTASIAFORUM Quarterly The views expressed are those of the individual United States, China and Japan, were authors and do not represent the views of the therefore willing to accept ASEAN IN our NeXt issue . Crawford School, ANU, EABER, EAF, or the ‘centrality’ and its position ‘in the institutions to which the authors are attached. driver’s seat’ when it came to intra- regional cooperation. These considerations characterised several ASEAN-focused cooperation initiatives in East Asia between the 1990s and 2000s. They included the ASEAN Regional Forum, ASEAN+3, Published by ANU Press the East Asian Summit and the Trade wars The Australian National University multilateral Chiang Mai Initiative for Canberra ACT 2601, Australia Email: [email protected] currency swaps after the 1997–98 and Asia Web:
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