The Asian Model of Development: from Recent Past Through Crises to Possible Future Transformation
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Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century
Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century § Adrien Auclert∗ Hannes Malmbergy Frédéric Martenetz Matthew Rognlie August 2021 Abstract We use a sufficient statistic approach to quantify the general equilibrium effects of population aging on wealth accumulation, expected asset returns, and global im- balances. Combining population forecasts with household survey data from 25 coun- tries, we measure the compositional effect of aging: how a changing age distribution affects wealth-to-GDP, holding the age profiles of assets and labor income fixed. In a baseline overlapping generations model this statistic, in conjunction with cross- sectional information and two standard macro parameters, pins down general equi- librium outcomes. Since the compositional effect is positive, large, and heterogeneous across countries, our model predicts that population aging will increase wealth-to- GDP ratios, lower asset returns, and widen global imbalances through the twenty-first century. These conclusions extend to a richer model in which bequests, individual savings, and the tax-and-transfer system all respond to demographic change. ∗Stanford University, NBER and CEPR. Email: [email protected]. yUniversity of Minnesota. Email: [email protected]. zStanford University. Email: [email protected]. §Northwestern University and NBER. Email: [email protected]. For helpful comments, we thank Rishabh Aggarwal, Mark Aguiar, Anmol Bhandari, Olivier Blanchard, Maricristina De Nardi, Charles Goodhart, Nezih Guner, Fatih Guvenen, Daniel Harenberg, Martin Holm, Gregor Jarosch, Patrick Kehoe, Patrick Kiernan, Pete Klenow, Dirk Krueger, Kieran Larkin, Ellen McGrat- tan, Kurt Mitman, Ben Moll, Serdar Ozkan, Christina Patterson, Alessandra Peter, Jim Poterba, Jacob Rob- bins, Richard Rogerson, Ananth Seshadri, Isaac Sorkin, Kjetil Storesletten, Ludwig Straub, Amir Sufi, Chris Tonetti, David Weil, Arlene Wong, Owen Zidar and Nathan Zorzi. -
Global Wealth Inequality
EC11CH05_Zucman ARjats.cls August 7, 2019 12:27 Annual Review of Economics Global Wealth Inequality Gabriel Zucman1,2 1Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA; email: [email protected] 2National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA Annu. Rev. Econ. 2019. 11:109–38 Keywords First published as a Review in Advance on inequality, wealth, tax havens May 13, 2019 The Annual Review of Economics is online at Abstract economics.annualreviews.org This article reviews the recent literature on the dynamics of global wealth https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics- Annu. Rev. Econ. 2019.11:109-138. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org inequality. I first reconcile available estimates of wealth inequality inthe 080218-025852 United States. Both surveys and tax data show that wealth inequality has in- Access provided by University of California - Berkeley on 08/26/19. For personal use only. Copyright © 2019 by Annual Reviews. creased dramatically since the 1980s, with a top 1% wealth share of approx- All rights reserved imately 40% in 2016 versus 25–30% in the 1980s. Second, I discuss the fast- JEL codes: D31, E21, H26 growing literature on wealth inequality across the world. Evidence points toward a rise in global wealth concentration: For China, Europe, and the United States combined, the top 1% wealth share has increased from 28% in 1980 to 33% today, while the bottom 75% share hovered around 10%. Recent studies, however, may underestimate the level and rise of inequal- ity, as financial globalization makes it increasingly hard to measure wealth at the top. -
A WILPF Guide to Feminist Political Economy
A WILPF GUIDE TO FEMINIST POLITICAL ECONOMY Brief for WILPF members Table of Contents Advancing WILPF’s approach to peace . 2 Political economy as a tool . 4 A feminist twist to understanding political economy . 4 Feminist political economy in the context of neoliberal policies . 5 Gendered economy of investments . 7 Feminist political economy analysis - How does WILPF do it? . 9 What questions do we need to ask? . 10 Case study . 12 © 2018 Women’s International League for Peace and Freedom August 2018 A User Guide to Feminist Political Economy 2nd Edition 13 pp. Authors: Nela Porobic Isakovic Editors: Nela Porobic Isakovic, Nina Maria Hansen, Cover photo Madeleine Rees, Gorana Mlinarevic Brick wall painting of faces by Design: Nadia Joubert Oliver Cole (@oliver_photographer) www.wilpf.org on Unsplash.com 1 Advancing WILPF’s approach to peace HOW CAN FEMINIST UNDERSTANDING OF POLITICAL ECONOMY IN CONFLICT OR POST-CONFLICT CONTEXT HELP ADVANCE WILPF’S APPROACH TO PEACE? Political economy makes explicit linkages between political, economic and social factors. It is concerned with how politics can influence the economy. It looks at the access to, and distribution of wealth and power in order to understand why, by whom, and for whom certain decisions are taken, and how they affect societies – politically, economically and socially. It combines different sets of academic disciplines, most notably political science, economy and sociology, but also law, history and other disciplines. By using feminist political economy, WILPF seeks to understand the broader context of war and post-conflict recovery, and to deconstruct seemingly fixed and unchangeable economic, social, and political parameters. -
Financial Integration and International Business Cycle Co-Movement: Wealth Effects Vs
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper No. 89 http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/institute/wpapers/2011/0089.pdf Financial Integration and International Business Cycle Co-movement: Wealth Effects vs. Balance Sheet Effects* J. Scott Davis Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas September 2011 Revised: August 2012 Abstract Different types of international financial integration have different effects on cross-country business cycle co-movement. International business cycle transmission through financial integration occurs through the wealth and balance sheet effects. The balance sheet effect leads to business cycle convergence, but the wealth effect leads to divergence. Using a cross- sectional regression, this paper shows that cross-border credit market integration (debt) has a positive effect on co-movement, implying that the balance sheet effect is the main conduit for international transmission through credit markets. However, cross-border capital market integration (equity) has a negative effect, implying that the wealth effect is the main channel for international transmission through capital markets. By distinguishing between wealth and balance sheet effects, this paper resolves many discrepancies between some key empirical and theoretical findings in the open economy macro literature, between different studies in the theoretical literature, and between empirical studies that use a cross-sectional regression and those employing panel data. JEL codes: E30, E44, F40, G15 * Scott Davis, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 2200 N. Pearl Street, Dallas, TX 75201. 214-922-5124. [email protected]. This paper previously circulated under the title “Financial Integration and International Business Cycle Co-movement: The Role of Balance Sheets.” I would like to thank Jean Imbs and participants at the Banque de France, CEPR conference on “The Financial Crisis: Lessons for International Macroeconomics” for many helpful comments and suggestions. -
East Asian Economies and Their Philosophy Behind Success: Manifestation of Social Constructs in Economic Policies
Journal of International Studies © Foundation of International Studies, 2017 © CSR, 2017 Scientific Papers Lajčiak, M. (2017). East Asian economies and their philosophy behind success: Journal Manifestation of social constructs in economic policies . Journal of International Studies, of International 10(1), 180-192. doi:10.14254/2071-8330.2017/10-1/13 Studies © Foundation East Asian economies and their philosophy of International Studies, 2017 behind success: Manifestation of social © CSR, 2017 Scientific Papers constructs in economic policies Milan Lajčiak Ambassador of the Slovak Republic to the Republic of Korea Slovak Embassy in Seoul, South Korea [email protected] Abstract. The study contributes to broader conceptualization of East Asian Received: December, 2016 economies by elaboration of sociocultural and institutional approaches, 1st Revision: explaining differences between Western and East Asian geography of thinking January, 2017 and focusing on the manifestations of Confucian values and their social Accepted: February, 2017 constructs into organizational patterns of economic policies and business culture within East Asian economies. The analysis demonstrates that these factors has DOI: strongly impacted successful industrialization processes in East Asian countries 10.14254/2071- and served as a strategic comparative advantage in their economic developmental 8330.2017/10-1/13 endeavor. The paper is claiming that economic policies of the region would never be so effective if they would not be integrated into social organizational models of these countries. The ability of East Asian leaders to understand weaknesses and strengths of their societies in terms of market forces and to tap on their potential through economic policies was a kind of philosophy behind their success. -
Income Inequality and the Business Cycle: a Threshold Cointegration Approach ♣
INCOME INEQUALITY AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE: A THRESHOLD COINTEGRATION APPROACH ♣ Gary A. Hoover University of Alabama Daniel C. Giedeman Grand Valley State University Sel Dibooglu♦ University of Missouri St Louis March 2009 Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of various socio-economic variables on various cohorts of the income distribution. We use asymmetric cointegration tests to show that unemployment and immigration shocks have real impacts on income inequality. In addition, using threshold test results we are able to show that positive and negative shocks to the economy do not have symmetric effects nor do the impacts of these shocks impact income quintiles uniformly. Keywords: Income inequality, Granger Causality, Asymmetric Cointegration JEL: I32, I39 ♣ The authors wish to thank Junsoo Lee and an anonymous referee for helpful comments. The usual caveats regarding remaining errors apply. ♦ Corresponding author: University of Missouri St Louis, Department of Economics, One University Blvd., St Louis, MO 63121, Email: [email protected], Phone: 314 516 5530; Fax: 314 516 5352 1. INTRODUCTION Beginning with the seminal work of Kuznets (1955) many researchers have endeavored to investigate the nature of the relationship between economic growth and income inequality. The Kuznets hypothesis posited that the functional relationship between inequality and economic development had an inverted “U” shape. Kuznets speculated that inequality would initially be positively correlated with economic development but that the relationship between economic growth and inequality would become negative at higher levels of development. Results supporting this hypothesis typically come from the use of cross-sectional country-specific data. Some recent researchers dispute the Kuznets hypothesis such as Bruno et al. -
Indonesia's Transformation and the Stability of Southeast Asia
INDONESIA’S TRANSFORMATION and the Stability of Southeast Asia Angel Rabasa • Peter Chalk Prepared for the United States Air Force Approved for public release; distribution unlimited ProjectR AIR FORCE The research reported here was sponsored by the United States Air Force under Contract F49642-01-C-0003. Further information may be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans, Hq USAF. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Rabasa, Angel. Indonesia’s transformation and the stability of Southeast Asia / Angel Rabasa, Peter Chalk. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. “MR-1344.” ISBN 0-8330-3006-X 1. National security—Indonesia. 2. Indonesia—Strategic aspects. 3. Indonesia— Politics and government—1998– 4. Asia, Southeastern—Strategic aspects. 5. National security—Asia, Southeastern. I. Chalk, Peter. II. Title. UA853.I5 R33 2001 959.804—dc21 2001031904 Cover Photograph: Moslem Indonesians shout “Allahu Akbar” (God is Great) as they demonstrate in front of the National Commission of Human Rights in Jakarta, 10 January 2000. Courtesy of AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE (AFP) PHOTO/Dimas. RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND® is a registered trademark. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. Cover design by Maritta Tapanainen © Copyright 2001 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, -
THE NEOLIBERAL THEORY of SOCIETY Simon Clarke
THE NEOLIBERAL THEORY OF SOCIETY Simon Clarke The ideological foundations of neo-liberalism Neoliberalism presents itself as a doctrine based on the inexorable truths of modern economics. However, despite its scientific trappings, modern economics is not a scientific discipline but the rigorous elaboration of a very specific social theory, which has become so deeply embedded in western thought as to have established itself as no more than common sense, despite the fact that its fundamental assumptions are patently absurd. The foundations of modern economics, and of the ideology of neoliberalism, go back to Adam Smith and his great work, The Wealth of Nations. Over the past two centuries Smith’s arguments have been formalised and developed with greater analytical rigour, but the fundamental assumptions underpinning neoliberalism remain those proposed by Adam Smith. Adam Smith wrote The Wealth of Nations as a critique of the corrupt and self-aggrandising mercantilist state, which drew its revenues from taxing trade and licensing monopolies, which it sought to protect by maintaining an expensive military apparatus and waging costly wars. The theories which supported the state conceived of exchange as a ‘zero-sum game’, in which one party’s gain was the other party’s loss, so the maximum benefit from exchange was to be extracted by force and fraud. The fundamental idea of Smith’s critique was that the ‘wealth of the nation’ derived not from the accumulation of wealth by the state, at the expense of its citizens and foreign powers, but from the development of the division of labour. The division of labour developed as a result of the initiative and enterprise of private individuals and would develop the more rapidly the more such individuals were free to apply their enterprise and initiative and to reap the corresponding rewards. -
Feminist Economics and the New Development Paradigm
B+1515 Feminist economics and the new development paradigm Women around the world work longer hours, participate less in labour markets than men, receive lower incomes and are more involved in unpaid work. Feminist economics demands a new development paradigm that is not based on +1515 economic growth and whose indicator is not the average GDP which conceals the half of the economy that is non- BB monetary. The classic model ignores essential activities that take place outside markets, such as maintaining a household, voluntary work, child rearing, caring for the elderly and a large part of food production and crop maintenance. The evolutive economist Hazel Henderson says quered. To cope with this new situation, society must Elsa Duhagon that human behaviour ranges from conflict and organise itself around a family model different from competition at one end of the scale to cooperation the traditional one of “man as provider” and “woman The economic and financial crisis has shown once and exchange at the other. She points out that only as housewife”. Today many families are headed by again that we need an economic analysis that takes market economics functions at the competition end women or by men and women where both have paid gender inequalities into account and that adjusts and that all the other social sciences are interested jobs. For this reason, Grynspan proposes programs some of the basic assumptions of classical econom- in cooperation and exchange, and consequently the of reconciliation between work and family in a way ics. To the current economic conception, growth theory of games is more and more the model to be that involves reconciling men and women, with this equals economic development and the Gross Do- applied.2 She adds, “In fact, new economics and even relation now being seen as one of co-responsibility in mestic Product (GDP) is the most used indicator to the mainstream of economic theory are beginning to the family and one that transcends the private sphere measure the “wealth” generated. -
Lifecycle Patterns of Saving and Wealth Accumulation
Finance and Economics Discussion Series Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C. Lifecycle Patterns of Saving and Wealth Accumulation Laura Feiveson and John Sabelhaus 2019-010 Please cite this paper as: Feiveson, Laura, and John Sabelhaus (2019). \Lifecycle Patterns of Saving and Wealth Accumulation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-010. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, https://doi.org/10.17016/FEDS.2019.010r1. NOTE: Staff working papers in the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS) are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. The analysis and conclusions set forth are those of the authors and do not indicate concurrence by other members of the research staff or the Board of Governors. References in publications to the Finance and Economics Discussion Series (other than acknowledgement) should be cleared with the author(s) to protect the tentative character of these papers. Lifecycle Patterns of Saving and Wealth Accumulation Laura Feiveson John Sabelhaus July 2019 Abstract Empirical analysis of U.S. income, saving and wealth dynamics is constrained by a lack of high- quality and comprehensive household-level panel data. This paper uses a pseudo-panel approach, tracking types of agents by birth cohort and across time through a series of cross-section snapshots synthesized with macro aggregates. The key micro source data is the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), which captures the top of the wealth distribution by sampling from administrative records. The SCF has the detailed balance sheet components, incomes, and interfamily transfers needed to use both sides of the intertemporal budget constraint and thus solve for saving and consumption. -
Do Asian Values Deter Popular Support for Democracy? the Case of South Korea
A Comparative Survey of DEMOCRACY, GOVERNANCE AND DEVELOPMENT Working Paper Series: No. 26 Do Asian Values Deter Popular Support for Democracy? The Case of South Korea Chong-Min Park Korea University Doh Chull Shin University of Missouri Issued by Asian Barometer Project Office National Taiwan University and Academia Sinica 2004 Taipei Asian Barometer A Comparative Survey of Democracy, Governance and Development Working Paper Series The Asian Barometer (ABS) is an applied research program on public opinion on political values, democracy, and governance around the region. The regional network encompasses research teams from twelve East Asian political systems (Japan, Mongolia, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Singapore, and Indonesia), and five South Asian countries (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal). Together, this regional survey network covers virtually all major political systems in the region, systems that have experienced different trajectories of regime evolution and are currently at different stages of political transition. The ABS Working Paper Series is intended to make research result within the ABS network available to the academic community and other interested readers in preliminary form to encourage discussion and suggestions for revision before final publication. Scholars in the ABS network also devote their work to the Series with the hope that a timely dissemination of the findings of their surveys to the general public as well as the policy makers would help illuminate the public discourse on democratic reform and good governance. The topics covered in the Series range from country-specific assessment of values change and democratic development, region-wide comparative analysis of citizen participation, popular orientation toward democracy and evaluation of quality of governance, and discussion of survey methodology and data analysis strategies. -
Globalization and Poverty: the Engine of Economic Growth and Development
GLOBALIZATION AND POVERTY: THE ENGINE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT Doug Bandow, Ph.D. Today's world is a place of exploding opportunities. Technological change is transforming the world. Even in the midst of intermittent economic crisis, people in the West live better than at any point of human history. Yet tragedy abounds in this world of plenty. Hundreds of millions of people live in miserable poverty. Malnutrition and even starvation stalk many lands. The opportunities that people in the West take for granted are absent from much of the world. Jesus said that “The poor you will always have with you,” which means that the obligation to assist those in need is also constant.1 The obligation is not only to those among the community of faith. “Let us do good to all people,” the Apostle Paul wrote the Galatian church.2 Industrialized states have tried different strategies to spur economic growth around the world. Communism, socialism, and other state-led development systems have been a bust—disastrously so. Foreign aid has done more to retard than speed growth. Well-intentioned efforts like the Peace Corps have had little permanent or systematic effect. Without doubt, many such international efforts have been well-intentioned. However, good intentions are not enough. Suppose a brother or sister is in need, wrote James. “If one of you says to him, ‘Go, I wish you well; keep warm and well fed,’ but does nothing about his physical needs, what good is it?”3 Similarly, what good are government “aid” programs which do not in fact help? What is working, in contrast, is the process of globalization.