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Preparing for the Possibility of a North Korean Collapse
CHILDREN AND FAMILIES The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that EDUCATION AND THE ARTS helps improve policy and decisionmaking through ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT research and analysis. HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE This electronic document was made available from INFRASTRUCTURE AND www.rand.org as a public service of the RAND TRANSPORTATION Corporation. INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS LAW AND BUSINESS NATIONAL SECURITY Skip all front matter: Jump to Page 16 POPULATION AND AGING PUBLIC SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Support RAND Purchase this document TERRORISM AND HOMELAND SECURITY Browse Reports & Bookstore Make a charitable contribution For More Information Visit RAND at www.rand.org Explore the RAND National Security Research Division View document details Limited Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This report is part of the RAND Corporation research report series. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for re- search quality and objectivity. Preparing for the Possibility of a North Korean Collapse Bruce W. Bennett C O R P O R A T I O N NATIONAL SECURITY RESEARCH DIVISION Preparing for the Possibility of a North Korean Collapse Bruce W. -
South Korea and the Sino-US Institutional Rivalry: the Case of the AIIB
South Korea and the Sino-US Institutional Rivalry: The case of the AIIB -Sino-US Institutional Rivalry and Korea’s Strategic Ambiguity- Minjeong Lee(Chung-Ang University) Abstract This paper explains how South Korea has responded to a dramatic change in security landscape in East Asia that the power competition between two great powers brought about. The U.S. provoked by rapidly rising China, has consistently pursued a policy of “rebalancing” in Asia. Faced with the U.S. provocation, China also has made determined effort to secure a sphere of influence in Asia. Against the backdrop of the power competition between the two great powers, East Asian countries have been required to take a side between the powers. The paper examines the choices that secondary East Asian states may make in order to maximize their national interests subject to the pressure from the two great powers with an emphasis on South Korea. Drawing on the concept strategic ambiguity, the paper claims that South Korea, one of the secondary states, has intentionally become very ambiguous regarding U.S. and China’s call for taking a side. Knowing that allying with either of the two powers will make it worse off by inviting the powers’ retaliatory measures, Korea has been “strategically” unclear and vague about the requests from the two powers. Focusing on Korea’s delay in the participation of AIIB, the paper finds that secondary powers like South Korea often find it “optimal” to be intentionally vague in its policy toward the great powers. Key Words: South Korea; China; the U.S.; the AIIB; Strategic Ambiguity 1 Ⅰ. -
Family, Mobile Phones, and Money: Contemporary Practices of Unification on the Korean Peninsula Sandra Fahy 82 | Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies
81 Family, Mobile Phones, and Money: Contemporary Practices of Unification on the Korean Peninsula Sandra Fahy 82 | Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies Moving from the powerful and abstract construct of ethnic homogeneity as bearing the promise for unification, this chapter instead considers family unity, facilitated by the quotidian and ubiquitous tools of mobile phones and money, as a force with a demonstrated record showing contemporary practices of unification on the peninsula. From the “small unification” (jageun tongil) where North Korean defectors pay brokers to bring family out, to the transmission of voice through the technology of mobile phones illegally smuggled from China, this paper explores practices of unification presently manifesting on the Korean Peninsula. National identity on both sides of the peninsula is usually linked with ethnic homogeneity, the ultimate idea of Koreanness present in both Koreas and throughout Korean history. Ethnic homogeneity is linked with nationalism, and while it is evoked as the rationale for unification it has not had that result, and did not prevent the ideological nationalism that divided the ethnos in the Korean War.1 The construction of ethnic homogeneity evokes the idea that all Koreans are one brethren (dongpo)—an image of one large, genetically related extended family. However, fissures in this ideal highlight the strength of genetic family ties.2 Moving from the powerful and abstract construct of ethnic homogeneity as bearing the promise for unification, this chapter instead considers family unity, facilitated by the quotidian and ubiquitous tools of mobile phones and money, as a force with a demonstrated record showing “acts of unification” on the peninsula. -
North Korea: a Chronology of Events from 2016 to 2020
North Korea: A Chronology of Events from 2016 to 2020 May 5, 2020 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov R46349 North Korea: A Chronology of Events from 2016 to 2020 Contents Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1 Chronology ...................................................................................................................................... 3 1994 ........................................................................................................................................... 3 1998 ........................................................................................................................................... 3 2003 ........................................................................................................................................... 4 2005 ........................................................................................................................................... 4 2006 ........................................................................................................................................... 4 2007 ........................................................................................................................................... 5 2009 ........................................................................................................................................... 5 2011 .......................................................................................................................................... -
Strangers at Home: North Koreans in the South
STRANGERS AT HOME: NORTH KOREANS IN THE SOUTH Asia Report N°208 – 14 July 2011 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................... i I. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 1 II. CHANGING POLICIES TOWARDS DEFECTORS ................................................... 2 III. LESSONS FROM KOREAN HISTORY ........................................................................ 5 A. COLD WAR USES AND ABUSES .................................................................................................... 5 B. CHANGING GOVERNMENT ATTITUDES ......................................................................................... 8 C. A CHANGING NATION .................................................................................................................. 9 IV. THE PROBLEMS DEFECTORS FACE ...................................................................... 11 A. HEALTH ..................................................................................................................................... 11 1. Mental health ............................................................................................................................. 11 2. Physical health ........................................................................................................................... 12 B. LIVELIHOODS ............................................................................................................................ -
South Korea's Economic Engagement Toward North Korea
South Korea’s Economic Engagement toward North Korea Lee Sangkeun & Moon Chung-in 226 | Joint U.S.-Korea Academic Studies On February 10, 2016, the South Korean government announced the closure of the Gaeseong Industrial Complex, a symbol of its engagement policy and inter-Korean rapprochement. The move was part of its proactive, unilateral sanctions against North Korea’s fourth nuclear test in January and rocket launch in February.1 Pyongyang reciprocated by expelling South Korean personnel working in the industrial complex and declaring it a military control zone.2 Although the May 24, 2010 measure following the sinking of the Cheonan naval vessel significantly restricted inter-Korea exchanges and cooperation, the Seoul government spared the Gaeseong complex. With its closure, however, inter-Korean economic relations came to a complete halt, and no immediate signs of revival of Seoul’s economic engagement with the North can be detected. This chapter aims at understanding the rise and decline of this engagement with North Korea by comparing the progressive decade of Kim Dae-jung (KDJ) and Roh Moo-hyun (RMH) with the conservative era of Lee Myung-bak (LMB) and Park Geun-hye (PGH). It also looks to the future of inter-Korean relations by examining three plausible scenarios of economic engagement. Section one presents a brief overview of the genesis of Seoul’s economic engagement strategy in the early 1990s, section two examines this engagement during the progressive decade (1998-2007), and section three analyzes that of the conservative era (2008-2015). They are followed by a discussion of three possible outlooks on the future of Seoul’s economic engagement with Pyongyang. -
South Korean Efforts to Counter North Korean Aggression
http://www.au.af.mil/au/csds/ South Korean Efforts to Counter North The Trinity Site Korean Aggression Papers By Major Aaron C. Baum, USAF http://www.au.af.mil/au/csds/ Recent North Korean nuclear aggression has raised debates Prior to the armistice, President Dwight Eisenhower signaled about how the United States should secure its interests in North- his willingness to use nuclear weapons to end the Korean Con- east Asia. However, any action on the peninsula should consid- flict. He then reiterated his resolve should China and North Ko- er the security preferences of American allies, especially the rea reinitiate hostilities.3 From 1958 to 1991, the United States Republic of Korea (ROK). With militaristic rhetoric coming stationed nuclear artillery, bombs, and missiles in South Korea from the Trump administration, the question arises of how im- to counter a North Korean invasion.4 Further, in 1975 the Ford portant U.S. policy is to the actions of our Korean allies in administration affirmed that the United States would consider countering North Korean (DPRK) nuclear aggression. Thus, it the use of nuclear weapons in a conflict “likely to result in de- is important to review nuclear crises of the past and the align- feat in any area of great importance to the United States in Asia ment of U.S. and ROK policy toward Pyongyang. This paper … including Korea.”5 reviews three periods of nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula It was not until 1978 at the 11th Security Consultative and argues that U.S. military policy is not the sole factor deter- Mechanism (SCM) that extended nuclear deterrence was for- mining South Korean response to DPRK nuclear provocation. -
North Korean Refugees in South Korea
8|2014 KAS INTERNATIONAL REPORTS 59 NORTH KOREAN REFUGEES IN SOUTH KOREA ARDUOUS ESCAPE AND DIFFICULT INTEGRATION Norbert Eschborn / Ines Apel “We can’t live in North Korea because of fear, we can’t live in China because of fear of deportation and we can’t live in South Korea because of ignorance.” This saying is widespread among North Korean refugees living in South Korea. It perfectly sums up the dilemma of a group of thousands of people who are no longer willing to live their lives under the totalitarian regime of the Kim family in North Korea. They therefore undertake an arduous and Dr. Norbert Eschborn highly risky escape from their homeland – a journey that is Resident Represen- tative of the Konrad- often takes many years – only to find they then have to Adenauer-Stiftung in face the many difficulties of integrating into the society of Seoul. their final destination, South Korea. The status of these refugees in South Korea is somewhat ambivalent. On the one hand, they are ideal subjects for offi- cial propaganda and it was not without a certain undertone of irony that South Korea’s Kore Joongang Daily announced in February 2007 that the 10,000th North Korean refugee had arrived in South Korea on 16 February 2007, the 65th Ines Apel, B.A. studied birthday of former North Korean dictator Kim Jong-il.1 Since Japanese and Korean that day, the number of refugees has more than doubled. Studies at the Eber- At the same time, their political status in South Korea is hard Karls University in Tübingen. -
Abuses of Generosity and Compassion - a Case of "Fraudulent North Korean Refugee Claimants"
Submission to the Honourable Jason Kenney, Minister of Citizenship, Immigration and Multiculturalism Recommendations on Abuses of Generosity and Compassion - A case of "fraudulent North Korean refugee claimants" - December 2012 Submitted by The Council for Human Rights in North Korea("HRNK Canada") 1289 Weston Road, Toronto, ON M6M 4R2 (416)244-3251 [email protected] ............................................................................................................... "Canadians take great pride in the generosity and compassion of our immigration and refugee programs. But they have no tolerance for those who abuse our generosity and seek to take unfair advantage of our country." Minister Jason Kenney, February 16, 2012 ............................................................................................................... Contents Definition 1.1 North Korean 1.2 Defected North Korean ("Defected NK") 1.3 North Korean defector ("NK defector") 1.4 South Korean defector ("SK defector") 1.5 North Korean refugee claimant ("NK refugee claimant") 1.6 Fraudulent North Korean refugee claimant ("Fraudulent NK refugee claimant") NK Defectors' Resettlement in South Korea 2. NK defectors coming to South Korea from China 3. NK defectors coming to South Korea via other third countries 4. NK defectors' Naturalization and Resettlement in South Korea SK Defectors' Refugee Claims in Canada 5. SK defectors coming to Canada from South Korea 6. SK defectors' refugee claims as South Koreans 7. SK defectors' refugee claims, posing as "defected -
North Korean Political Prison Camps Starts with the So-Called “August Faction Incident” in 1956
North Korean Prison Camps Radio Free Asia Radio Free Asia Copyright: 2016 by Radio Free Asia . Table Of Contents Chapter 1 Prison Camps from Hell ..................................................................................................................... 2 1) What are Political Prison Camps? ........................................................................................................... 2 2) Testimonies of Former Prisoners ............................................................................................................. 2 3) North Korea Keeps its Political Prison Camps Secret ............................................................................ 3 4) Names Used by North Korea to Disguise the Camps ............................................................................ 4 5) The Intensity of Labor and the Guilt-By-Association System .............................................................. 4 Chapter 2 What is My Crime? ............................................................................................................................ 6 1) Total Control Zones and Revolutionizing Zones .................................................................................. 6 2) Nine Years of Imprisonment as No.1 Criminal ..................................................................................... 6 3) Christians All Go to Prison Camps ......................................................................................................... 8 4) Preposterous Espionage Charges and Passed-Down -
Transitional Justice in South Korea: One Country’S Restless Search for Truth and Reconciliation
Transitional Justice in South Korea: One Country’s Restless Search for Truth and Reconciliation Paul Hanley*† Abstract A recent Korean film, “National Security”, about a democracy activist and former Korean politician, Kim Geun-Tae, who was kidnapped and tortured into making a false confession by police in 1985, has renewed debate among South Koreans about the state of transitional justice in the country. From 1995 to 2010, South Korea took a number of steps to expose the political oppressions and human rights abuses of its past authoritarian governments and to assist individuals involved in the struggle for democracy to clear their names and restore their reputations. This article analyzes the relative success and failure of South Korea’s truth seeking process and the prospect for the realization of transitional justice in the country in the future. I. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................ 140 II. OVERVIEW OF MODERN KOREAN HISTORY ............... 141 A. First Republic (1953 – 1960) ............................................ 142 B. Second Republic (1960 - 1961) ........................................ 143 C. Military Rule (1961 – 1962) ............................................. 144 D. Third Republic (1963 – 1972)........................................... 144 E. Fourth Republic (1972 – 1979) ......................................... 146 F. Fifth Republic (1979 - 1987) ............................................ 146 2014] TRANSITIONAL JUSTICE IN SOUTH KOREA 139 G. Sixth Republic (1987 -
Against Humanity in North Korean Political Prisons
Report: Inquiry on Crimes Against Humanity in North Korean Political Prisons A report by the War Crimes Committee of the International Bar Association (IBA) International Bar Association 4th Floor, 10 St Bride Street London EC4A 4AD T: +44 (0)20 7842 0090 F: +44 (2)20 7842 0091 [email protected] www.ibanet.org © International Bar Association and Hogan Lovells December 2017 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, or stored in any retrieval system of any nature without the prior written permission of the copyright holder. Application for permission should be made to the Content Department at the IBA address or Robert Snoddy at Hogan Lovells. Selling without prior written consent prohibited. The views expressed in this publication are those of the contributors, and not necessarily those of the International Bar Association or Hogan Lovells. IBA WAR CRIMES COMMITTEE CO-CHAIRS Federica D’Alessandra Harvard University Gregory W Kehoe Greenberg Traurig IBA WAR CRIMES COMMITTEE IMMEDIATE PAST CO-CHAIR Steven Kay QC 9 Bedford Row The IBA would like to give special thanks to Hogan Lovells for co-authoring this report. The IBA would also like to thank the following organizations for their support: Acknowledgments The War Crimes Committee of the International Bar Association (“IBA”) is grateful to the IBA and its Executive Director, Dr. Mark Ellis, for their support and leadership in advancing this first of its kind, civil society-led Inquiry on Crimes Against Humanity in North Korean Political Prisons (the “Inquiry”). The War Crimes Committee wishes to recognize the following Inquiry organizers within the Committee for their tireless efforts, creativity and enormous commitment of time to this undertaking: Steven Kay, Q.C.