Zeszyty Naukowe AON nr 3(100) 2015 ISSN 2299-6753 SOURCES OF MODERN RUSSIAN-UKRAINE WAR: DONETSK DIMENSION Prof. Ihor TODOROV, Ph.D. Uzhhorod, Ukraine Abstract The article describes the origis �������������������ad the begiig o the ��raiia-raiia-��ssia co����������lict i ����������the east o ��raieraie in 2014. The conditions for the emergence of this conflict are defined. It proves the leading role of Russia as a principal organiser and executor of the war against Ukraine. It addresses the lack of effort by the West to confront Russian aggression. Key words: geopolitical grounds, east Ukraine, Donetsk region, Russian aggression, Ukraine-Russia war, “Donetsk People’s Republic” Further escalation of the conflict, or in fact, the In the Donbas�����������������������������, there have always been pro- war, in the eastern Ukraine confronts researchers Russian sympathies, especially on an emotional with the need to find out the origins of this level. Until recently, these sympathies had not situation, including its geopolitical background. moved into the sphere of political separatism. This is the purpose of our scientific research. They were expressed mainly through the vote Achieving this purpose involves implementation for the Party of Regions, which, conventionally, of such tasks as the definition of the conditions was considered pro-Russian. Besides, sympathy for conflict resolution, and proving the leading for the “northern neighbour” and the Soviet past role of Russia as the organiser and key executor was expressed in the Donetsk region in the form of the war against Ukraine. The implementation of of support for the openly pro-Russian Communist these tasks relies on the documents issued by the Party. But, both political parties operated within central government and local authorities, media the Ukrainian legal domain and could not act information and the author’s own observations. against the territorial integrity of the state. In December 2013, it seemed that the idea of The events of early March 201�, when splitting Ukraine ������������������������������was not popular, unlike in 200�. thousands of people who were in favour of union Dissatisfaction with the current government was with Russia started going out in the central streets very deep, though sufficiently hidden in the public of Donetsk, seemed illogical and ungrounded. discourse of Donbas1. In the towns of Donbas from Earlier, the Russian tricolour banner sometimes late November 2013, their own “euromaidans” appeared in the streets of Donetsk, but it had never took place. In Donetsk, particularly every day been a mass phenomenon. Suddenly, everything in the evening, 50-60 participants gathered, and changed: masses of people appeared who had on Sundays – up to 300. Meetings were entirely never been seen before. There were grounds to say peaceful; the police treated their participants that, in Ukraine, a special operation had begun that kindly, but, in general, the residents of Donetsk was carefully planned and prepared in advance, shared a predominantly negative attitude to the based on qualitative consideration of the local Kiev ‘maidan’. realities. We now know that these scenarios were developed in the last few years and, perhaps, it was 1 Я. Грицак, Знову про можливий розкол України. Критика, http://krytyka.com/ua/articles/znovu-pro-mozhlyvyy- planned to implement them after the presidential rozkol-ukrayi . elections of 2015. However, the February events 27 IHOR TODOROV on Independence Square (Maidan) accelerated Donetsk residents, for the most part, felt the beginning of the raid2. On the part of the local themselves unprotected. The events that unfolded authorities and local governments and, especially, in the city in March 201� left an obvious mark: the law enforcement bodies, there were no clear, 31% of respondents said that life in the city was effective and thoughtful actions to oppose separatist “restless”, 20% rated it as “dangerous”, and 3�% forces. Calls were made for the unity of Ukraine, believed that life in general had become more but no effective steps in this direction were taken. difficult and more depressing. In this situation, the Subversive work, which was conducted among Donetsk residents, in fact, had no one to rely on: the residents of the region, was clearly aimed at creating level of trust in the security forces was very low. the mythology of both the Russian realities (high Courts and prosecutors were the leaders of distrust salaries and pensions) and of “fears” traditional for among Donetsk residents: no more than 10% of eastern Ukraine - Bandera, fascists ... In February, Donetsk people trusted them. Locals had a little they were supplemented by myths about the “Right more confidence in the Security Service and the Sector “which supposedly is going to Donbas police. The army had the greatest confidence, but to take revenge on its residents for Yanukovych. the share of those who did not trust it, in general, Again, the language issue surfaced, although most was as low as that of the SBU. residents of Donetsk were aware that the Russian There was no unity in the perception of pro- language had never been threatened there. Russian rallies and meetings in support of the The NGO “Donetsk Institute of Social unity of Ukraine. Although the overall distribution Research and Political Analysis” (director V.Kipen) of responses shows a greater tendency of public conducted an opinion poll in Donetsk in March opinion to support the rally participants for 201�. Donetsk inhabitants then demonstrated a high a unified Ukraine; it cannot be said that there level of interest in political events occurring in the was an unequivocal dominance of supporters of country and the city. Three-quarters of respondents a particular point of view. (77%) identified their interest in these events as However, the thesis of the Donetsk residents’ stable and high. 3�% of the citizens of Donetsk predominant orientation to Russia was not tended to trust the Ukrainian media in covering the confirmed by the distribution of answers to the events, 2�% - the Russian ones. Such a distribution question of identity. Clear patriotic feelings, in of trust in the information sources fully reflects the general, were characteristic of more than a third fragility of the public opinion, which was formed of Donetsk residents. Close to them is a large in conditions of information warfare. group (21%) of Donetsk residents that identified Half of Donetsk residents then spoke for themselves as “Russian-speaking citizens of preserving the unitary structure of Ukraine. Of Ukraine.” In total, this amounted to 58% of these, 31% of the unitary government supporters Donetsk’s population. A third of respondents cared believed that regions should be given broader for Russia3. economic and tax powers. There were 16% who It is worth mentioning that the pro-Russian saw the future of Donetsk region within Ukraine, movement began several years ago. In 2005����, an but with the authority extended to the status of unregistered organisation “Donetsk Republic” a federation subject. In total, there were 66% who began to operate. Its pro-Russian activists staged supported the unity of Ukraine. There were 27% rallies, which were attended by a few dozen who supported the Donetsk region joining the people. The situation had changed radically in Russian Federation, including those who spoke for early April 201�, when together with Russian the actual entry of Ukraine into an alliance similar tricolour banners, tricolour flags of the “Donetsk to the Soviet Union. And only 5% saw the region Republic” appeared in large numbers. On as a separate state formation. 7 April , radical separatists acting according to the Moscow scenario and coordinated by the Russian secret services, declared a so-called “People’s 2 Т. Возняк, Паралельні сценарії подій в Україні Council of Donbas” in a captured building of the взимку 2013-2014 рр. Путін частково все-таки здійснив свій план демонтажу України. Портал �ahid.��T, http:// 3 Почти 66 % жителей Донецка хотят жить в единой zaxid.net/news/showNews.do?paralelni_stsenariyi_podiy_v_ Украине – соцопрос, http://www.ostro.org/general/politics/ ukrayini_vzimku_2013201�_rr&objectId=1332169. news/��212�/. 28 SOURCES OF MODERN RUSSIAN–UKRAINE WAR: DONETSK DIMENSION Donetsk Regional State Administration, and held In general, except tricolour flags and piles a fake “extraordinary session” which adopted the of garbage in the square in front of the Donetsk illegal and unconstitutional decision to establish Regional State Administration, as well as the a so-called “Donetsk People’s Republic” and its hysterical cries of pro-Russian activists on social accession to the Russian Federation. networks, Donetsk continued to live its normal life Donetsk Oblast Council requested Donetsk in April 201�: people went to work and enjoyed residents to remain prudent and not to succumb the spring8. There were two parallel realities. to provocations. It advocated a peaceful and legal However, in late April, the situation changed settlement of the crisis in the Donbas�. Donetsk radically. They began to cross. Much was made city council also made an official statement that it by Russian propaganda. The trapped airwaves d������������������������������������������������id not recognise the so-called “People’s Council of the regional TV and radio company broadcast of Donbas”, which announced the creation of the the Russian channels. Even then, it was clear that “Donetsk People’s Republic”5. the presidential election would not be held in the However, there was an actual betrayal of law region. While the then chairman of RSA, S.Taruta, enforcement officers who did not oppose the said that everything was fine until the last moment. seizure of administrative buildings and taunted The camouflaged men with weapons began to walk the members of pro-Ukrainian rallies. Many of the openly in the streets. And many Donetsk residents senior officers of the SBU regional management were willing to accept any lie by Putin. On 11 were recruited by Russia. In fact, this structure May, the fake referendum on the “independence” in the Donetsk region in fact worked for another of the Donetsk People’s Republic was held, which state6.