Not for circulation– Please do not cite or quote without author’s permission ’s ‘Midstream Doctrine’

Saleh M.K. Saleh Centre for Energy, and Mineral Law and Policy, University of Dundee Not for circulation– Please do not cite or quote without author’s permission Outline

• Sudan: Downstream or Midstream?

• Factors Determining Sudan’s ‘Midstream Doctrine’

• Evidence of Sudan’s ‘Midstream Doctrine’

• Future issues… Not for circulation– Please do not cite or quote without author’s permission Traditional Analysis: Sudan is Downstream

 1959 Agreement with • 5: General Provisions 1. If it becomes necessary to hold any negotiations concerning the waters, with any riparian state, outside the boundaries of the two Republics, the Governments of the Sudan Republic and the United Arab Republic shall agree on a unified view after the subject is studied by the said Commission

 No significant amount of Nile’s water originates in Sudan Not for circulation–More Please do notModern cite or quote Analysis:without author’s permission Factors Determining Sudan’s Midstream Position / Doctrine

HISTORY

GEOGRAPHY DEMOGRAPHY

AGREEMENTS / COOPERATION WITH UPSTREAM RIPARIANS POLITICS Not for circulation–Geography Please do not cite or quote / with Hydrologyout author’s permission Not for circulation– Please do not cite orHistory quote without author’s permission Sudan through the ages… Not for circulation–Sudan Please do throughnot cite or quote with theout author’s ages permission… The relatively modern / lasting impression… Not for circulation– Please do not citeDemography or quote without author’s permission Ethnic Groups Shared by Sudan and Other Riparians

Sudan / : Sebei, Lango, Acholi, Madi

Sudan / DRC: Tagbu, Sudan / Egypt: Beja, Hedareb, Ababda Avukaya, Logo, Bisharin, Kenuzi Kaliko, Dukpu, Yulu, Azandi, Alur

Sudan / : Wetawit, Shita, Mekan, Donyiro, Sudan / : Luo, Nilotes Kichepo, Tirma, Anuak, Daasanach, Gumuz, Welega-Oromo Sudan / : Beni Amir, Rashaida, Beja, Hedareb Not for circulation– Please do not cite orPolitics quote without author’s permission

• The 1959 Agreement was not domestically politically consensual or popular

Sudan Constitution 2005 • Nature of the State ‘ 1. The Republic of the Sudan is a sovereign, democratic, decentralized, multi-cultural, multi-racial, multi-ethnic, multi-religious, and multi-lingual State…

Notably differing from Egypt Not forSudan’s circulation– Please International do not cite or quote without Agreements author’s permission • 1991 Sudan-Ethiopia Agreement ‘the principle of equitable utilisation of the waters of The and River’

• 1997 UN Watercourses Convention ‘Equitable and Reasonable Utilization and Participation’ Art. 5 ‘No Significant Harm’ Art. 7 ‘General Obligation to Cooperate’ Art. 8 Applicability of Existing Agreements… Art. 3 Not for circulation–Cooperation Please do not cite or quote / withRelationsout author’s permission with Upstream Riparians

• Co-financing of Kara Dobe Dam in Ethiopia: 38,000 MW, USD$ 800 m

• Regional supplier of oil to Ethiopia, possibly Eritrea

• mediation in Uganda / LRA war Not for circulation– Please do notFuture cite or quote withIssuesout author’s… permission

• / Dream? Potential for at least 3.8 km3 of extra water into Nile annually

• South Sudan secession in 2011…? Not for circulation– Please do not cite or quote without author’s permission Thanks for your attention!