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HIGH SPEED RAIL (London - West MidLands) Supplementary Environmental Statement and Additional Provision 2 Environmental Statement Volume 5 | Technical appendices Traffic and transport (TR-001-000) July 2015 SES and AP2 ES 3.5.3.1 SES AND AP2 ES – VOLUME 5 www.gov.uk/hs2 HIGH SPEED RAIL (London - West MidLands) Supplementary Environmental Statement and Additional Provision 2 Environmental Statement Volume 5 | Technical appendices Traffic and transport (TR-001-000) July 2015 SES and AP2 ES 3.5.3.1 High Speed Two (HS2) Limited has been tasked by the Department for Transport (DfT) with managing the delivery of a new national high speed rail network. It is a non-departmental public body wholly owned by the DfT. A report prepared for High Speed Two (HS2) Limited: High Speed Two (HS2) Limited, One Canada Square, London E14 5AB Details of how to obtain further copies are available from HS2 Ltd. Telephone: 020 7944 4908 General email enquiries: [email protected] Website: www.gov.uk/hs2 Copyright © High Speed Two (HS2) Limited, 2015, except where otherwise stated. High Speed Two (HS2) Limited has actively considered the needs of blind and partially sighted people in accessing this document. The text will be made available in full via the HS2 website. The text may be freely downloaded and translated by individuals or organisations for conversion into other accessible formats. If you have other needs in this regard please contact High Speed Two (HS2) Limited. Printed in Great Britain on paper containing at least 75% recycled fibre. SES and AP2 ES Appendix TR-001-000 Contents 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Background 1 2 London Region 2 2.1 Regional methodology and assumptions 2 2.2 Kilburn (Brent) to Old Oak Common (CFA4) 3 2.3 Northolt Corridor (CFA5) 36 2.4 South Ruislip to Ickenham (CFA6) 60 3 Country Region 75 3.1 Colne Valley (CFA7) 75 3.2 The Chalfonts and Amersham (CFA8) 81 3.3 Central Chilterns (CFA9) 87 3.4 Dunsmore, Wendover and Halton (CFA10) 95 3.5 Stoke Mandeville and Aylesbury (CFA11) 103 3.6 Waddesdon and Quainton (CFA12) 107 3.7 Calvert, Steeple Claydon, Twyford and Chetwode (CFA13) 113 3.8 Newton Purcell to Brackley (CFA14) 120 3.9 Greatworth to Lower Boddington (CFA15) 130 3.10 Ladbroke and Southam (CFA16) 142 3.11 Offchurch and Cubbington (CFA17) 144 3.12 Stoneleigh, Kenilworth and Burton Green (CFA18) 145 3.13 Coleshill Junction (CFA19) 150 3.14 Curdworth and Middleton (CFA20) 163 3.15 Drayton Bassett, Hints and Weeford (CFA21) 169 3.16 Whittington to Handsacre (CFA22) 174 4 West Midlands Region 198 4.1 Balsall Common and Hampton-in-Arden (CFA23) 198 4.2 Birmingham Interchange and Chelmsley Wood (CFA24) 226 4.3 Castle Bromwich and Bromford (CFA25) 257 4.4 Washwood Heath to Curzon Street Station (CFA26) 259 5 Route-wide and off-route assessment 265 5.1 Introduction 265 5.2 SES corrections in passenger numbers at stations 265 5.3 Forecast changes in daily passenger demand 266 5.4 Langley 266 i SES and AP2 ES Appendix TR-001-000 1 Introduction 1.1 Background 1.1.1 The Bill for High Speed Rail between London and the West Midlands was submitted to Parliament together with the main Environmental Statement (ES) in November 2013. The Additional Provision 1 Environmental Statement (AP1), which was submitted in September 2014, contained generally minor amendments to the design of the original scheme (i.e. the scheme submitted in November 2013). The Bill and associated Additional Provisions to the Bill, if enacted by Parliament, will provide the powers to construct, operate and maintain Phase One of HS2. 1.1.2 Since the submission of the main ES and AP1 ES, a number of changes or updates to environmental information and scheme design or assumptions have occurred. 1.1.3 In order to differentiate between the original proposals and subsequent changes, the following terms are used: 'the original scheme' - the Bill scheme submitted to Parliament in November 2013, which was assessed in the main ES; 'the AP1 revised scheme' - the original scheme as amended by the AP submitted in September 2014; 'the SES scheme' - the original scheme with the design changes described in the Supplementary Environmental Statement (SES); and 'the AP2 revised scheme' - the original scheme as amended by the SES scheme and AP2. 1.1.4 This Transport Assessment (TA) addendum summarises changes to the TA reported in the main ES (Volume 5 Appendix, Transport Assessment, TR-001-000) including: the regional assessment methodology, the assessment of impacts in each Community Forum Area (CFA) between Kilburn (CFA4) and Washwood Heath to Curzon Street Station (CFA26) as a result of the AP2 revised scheme, and other changes and corrections; and route-wide and off-route impacts. 1.1.5 An additional section is included in each CFA which describes new baseline surveys that have undertaken. 1.1.6 The above amendments lead to a number of changes to the TA in each CFA as reported in the main ES, and these are described in the following sections of this report. 1.1.7 Where text, tables or figures are not discussed they are unchanged from the main ES. 1.1.8 Where not specifically stated all paragraph, table and figure references are references to the main TA in Volume 5 Appendix: Transport Assessment (TR-001-000) of the main ES. 1 SES and AP2 ES Appendix TR-001-000 2 London Region 2.1 Regional methodology and assumptions Operations Assessments 2.1.1 The assessments of traffic changes have only considered the construction phase. Operational impacts need to be assessed in combination with any impacts arising from the Euston station design review. Therefore, any new or different operation impacts arising in Kilburn (Brent) to Old Oak Common (CFA4) and Northolt Corridor (CFA5) will be reported in a future AP. Regional highway modelling CloHAM and WelHAM SATURN highway modelling 2.1.2 In order to assess changes to the scheme in London it has been necessary to undertake new transport modelling. However, since the submission of the main ES a number of changes have been made to provide an updated base for the modelling. Paragraphs 6.2.25 to 6.2.31 of the main TA describe the development of the West London (WeLHAM) Highway Assignment Models used in the assessment of the original scheme. 2.1.3 Transport for London (TfL) has subsequently provided HS2 Ltd with an interim 2012 base year WeLHAM model in spring 2014 and confirmed that this would provide a better base for the assessment of the AP2 revised scheme than the 2009 base year model described above. 2.1.4 HS2 Ltd has further developed this WeLHAM model and undertaken additional calibration and validation of the model in the areas of interest, namely Old Oak Common and West Ruislip/Ickenham. Further details of the model development are provided in the model performance report (MPR) which is included in Annex C. 2.1.5 Table 6.2 has been partially updated to show the model performance statistics for Old Oak Common and West Ruislip. Table 6.2: WeLHAM local area link performance summary (partial replacement) DMRB GEH <5 guidance AM peak hour Ave. inter peak hour PM peak hour (08:00-09:00) (10:00-16:00) (17:00-18:00) Old Oak Common area 94% N/A 94% West Ruislip area 100% N/A 100% 2 SES and AP2 ES Appendix TR-001-000 (CFA4) 2.2 Kilburn (Brent) to Old Oak Common (CFA4) Kilburn (Brent) to Old Oak Common (CFA4) AP2 revised scheme changes 2.2.1 The original scheme through this area is as described in paragraphs 6.7.1 to 6.7.10 of the main TA. 2.2.2 In the Kilburn (Brent) to Old Oak Common CFA (CFA4) there are three SES changes which affect the TA: SES-004-002 The removal of the proposal to relocate the Heathrow Express (HEx) depot at the North Pole (East) site. It is now proposed to relocate the depot to Langley in the County of Berkshire and the County of Buckinghamshire. SES-004-003 Old Oak Common Lane closure mitigation. Step-free pedestrian access will be maintained along Old Oak Common Lane throughout most of the twelve month period of construction with occasional short term closures for certain construction works. Further details of this proposal can be seen in the SES and AP2 ES Volume 2 report for CFA4, and consequential use of the updated West London Highway Assignment Model (WeLHAM ) 2.2.3 There is also a change regarding the use of an internal haul road to the Victoria box site, which leads to an increase in HGV movements at Old Oak Common. The internal haul road is longer used because of the re-phasing of the Heathrow Express (HEx) depot relocation. 2.2.4 The above changes lead to a number of amendments to the main TA in Kilburn (Brent) to Old Oak Common (CFA4). Assessment methodology 2.2.5 The assessment methodology for the original scheme is described in Section 6.2 of the main TA. 2.2.6 As noted above, the updated WeLHAM model has been used by HS2 Ltd to provide revised forecasts for the AP2 revised scheme. Existing baseline 2.2.7 The baseline traffic and transport information for Kilburn (Brent) to Old Oak Common is described in Section 5.7 of the main TA. 2.2.8 Supplementary traffic surveys were undertaken in June 2014 and December 2014 at locations not previously surveyed but potentially now affected by the SES revised scheme.