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RISCHIO SISTEMICO Il Collegamento Tra Istituzioni Finanziarie Corso di Laurea Magistrale in Sviluppo Economico e dell’Impresa Curriculum Finanza dello sviluppo e della PMI Tesi di Laurea RISCHIO SISTEMICO Il collegamento tra istituzioni finanziarie Relatore Chiar.mo Prof. Claudio Pizzi Correlatore Chiar.ma Prof.ssa Francesca Parpinel Laureando Piercarlo La Torre Matricola 816343 Anno Accademico 2013 / 2014 INDICE PREFAZIONE .................................................................................................... 1 DEFINIRE E MISURARE IL RISCHIO SISTEMICO ................................. 5 1.1 INTRODUZIONE ....................................................................................................................................................... 5 1.2 LE DEFINIZIONI DI RISCHIO SISTEMICO ..................................................................................................... 7 1.3 LA MISURAZIONE DELL RISCHIO SISTEMICO ......................................................................................... 11 1.3.1 Classificazione basata sui dati richiesti .................................................................................................. 12 1.3.2 Classificazione basata sulla prospettiva di sorveglianza ................................................................ 19 1.3.3 Classificazione legata all’orizzonte temporale .................................................................................... 23 1.3.4 Classificazione per la prospettiva di ricerca ......................................................................................... 27 L’ORIGINE DEL RISCHIO SISTEMICO .................................................... 29 2.1 INTRODUZIONE .................................................................................................................................................... 29 2.2 LA NATURA DEL RISCHIO SISTEMICO ........................................................................................................ 31 2.2.1 Liquidità, Insolvenza e Maturity Mismatch ........................................................................................... 34 2.2.2 Liquidità di finanziamento ed Effetto Domino .................................................................................... 36 2.2.3 Asset Price Effect e la Spirale delle Perdite ........................................................................................... 39 2.2.4 La spirale del Margine .................................................................................................................................... 41 2.2.5 Esternalità ........................................................................................................................................................... 45 2.3 LA CRISI FINANZIARIA DEL 2007-2009 ..................................................................................................... 47 LA NETWORK THEORY .............................................................................. 58 3.1 INTRODUZIONE .................................................................................................................................................... 58 3.2 STORIA E CARATTERI DELLA NETWORK THEORY .............................................................................. 62 3.2.1 Cenni storici ......................................................................................................................................................... 62 3.2.2 Le reti del mondo reale ................................................................................................................................... 65 I 3.2.3 I network come strutture in evoluzione .................................................................................................. 68 3.2.4 I network come sistemi dinamici ............................................................................................................... 69 3.3 APPLICAZIONI DELLA NETWORK THEORY NEL SISTEMA FINANZIARIO .................................. 70 3.3.1 Il contagio nella Network Theory .............................................................................................................. 72 3.3.2 Il congelamento del mercato interbancario ......................................................................................... 79 IL MODELLO EMPIRICO D’ANALISI ....................................................... 82 4.1 INTRODUZIONE .................................................................................................................................................... 82 4.2 LE DIVERSE MISURE DI CONNETTIVITÀ ................................................................................................... 84 4.2.1 Le Centrality Measures ................................................................................................................................... 88 4.3 LA CREAZIONE DEL MODELLO ...................................................................................................................... 98 4.3.1 La scelta degli indici ........................................................................................................................................ 98 4.3.2 La scelta dei dati ............................................................................................................................................ 100 4.3.3 La scelta del modello .................................................................................................................................... 103 4.4 ANALISI E RISULTATI ..................................................................................................................................... 110 4.4.1 Riassunto dei risultati .................................................................................................................................. 132 CONCLUSIONI .............................................................................................. 134 BIBLIOGRAFIA ............................................................................................. 137 RINGRAZIAMENTI ...................................................................................... 141 II ELENCO DELLE TABELLE Tabella 1.1: Classificazione delle misure del rischio sistemico in base ai dati necessari 14 Tabella 1.2: Classificazione delle misure del rischio sistemico in base agli scopi di regolamentazione 22 Tabella 1.3: Classificazione delle misure del rischio sistemico in base in base all’orizzonte temporale 25 Tabella 1.4: Classificazione delle misure del rischio sistemico in base agli scopi di ricerca 28 Tabella 3.1: Possibili canali di contagio nel sistema bancario 73 Tabella 4.1: Indici di connessione sistemica 86 Tabella 4.2: Valori dell’indice di closeness centrality calcolati per il Network completo in tutti e tre trienni di analisi 117 Tabella 4.3: Valori dell’indice di closeness centrality calcolati per il Network nel singoli anni del secondo triennio 118 Tabella 4.4: Valori dell’indice di betweenness centrality calcolati per il Network completo in tutti e tre trienni di analisi 119 Tabella 4.5: Valori dell’indice di closeness centrality calcolati per ogni singolo istituto e per ogni triennio 127 Tabella 4.6: Valori dell’indice di betweenness centrality calcolati per ogni singolo istituto e per ogni triennio 128 Tabella 4.7: Valori dell’indice di closeness centrality calcolati per ogni coppia di intermediari finanziari 130 Tabella 4.8: Valori dell’indice di betweenness centrality calcolati per ogni coppia di intermediari finanziari 131 III ELENCO DELLE FIGURE Figura 2.1: Raggruppamento semplificato delle voci di bilancio della Banca Centrale 32 Figura 2.2: Semplice esempio di relazione tra due banche 37 Figura 2.3: Rappresentazione dell’Effetto Domino 38 Figura 2.4: La spirale delle perdite 40 Figura 2.5: Il possibile circolo virtuoso della liquidità 41 Figura 2.6: La spirale del Margine 42 Figura 2.7: Diagramma di dispersione costruito plottando, rispettivamente in ascissa e in ordinata, la media pesata dell’indebitamento e del valore totale delle azioni delle cinque maggiori banche d’investimento dell’epoca 43 Figura 2.8: Andamento del tasso d’interesse percentuale negli Stati Uniti sui prestiti bancari e sui mutui dal 1975 al 2010 49 Figura 2.9: Media nazionale dei prezzi degli immobili negli Stati Uniti tra il 1976 e il 2010 50 Figura 2.10: Percentuale dei mutui ipotecari negli Stati Uniti. In nero appaiono i mutui non garantiti, in grigio più chiaro quelli garantiti 52 Figura 2.11: Strutturazione dei Collateralized Debt Obligations 54 Figura 3.1: Il problema dei ponti di Königsberg proposto da Eulero durante lo studio dei grafi 63 Figura 3.1: Prestito interbancario 75 Figura 3.2: Le diverse strutture di prestito analizzate da Allen e Gale 76 Figura 4.1: Rappresentazione della degree centrality di un grafo non orientato 90 Figura 4.2: Modelli di grafi a stella con diverso numero di vertici 92 Figura 4.3: Rappresentazione della betweenness centrality 93 Figura 4.4: Rappresentazione della closeness centrality 95 Figura 4.5: Possibile rappresentazione dell’eigenvector centrality index 97 Figura 4.6: Summary dell’output del modello Garch 106 Figura 4.7: Funzione di autocorrelazione dei residui del modello 107 IV Figura 4.8: Distribuzione dei residui del modello 107 Figura 4.9: Creazione del modello ARIMA e test di Dickey-Fuller sui residui 109 Figura 4.10: Rappresentazione grafica della matrici delle connessioni relativamente al Network completo nel triennio 2004-2006 112 Figura 4.11: Rappresentazione grafica della matrici delle
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