A peer-reviewed open-access journal NeoBiota 59: 1–20 (2020) Winter moth environmental niche 1 doi: 10.3897/neobiota.59.53550 RESEARCH ARTICLE NeoBiota http://neobiota.pensoft.net Advancing research on alien species and biological invasions Predicting the invasion range for a highly polyphagous and widespread forest herbivore Laura M. Blackburn1, Joseph S. Elkinton2, Nathan P. Havill3, Hannah J. Broadley2, Jeremy C. Andersen2, Andrew М. Liebhold1,4 1 Northern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Morgantown, West Virginia, USA 2 Department of En- vironmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts, USA 3 Northern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Hamden, Connecticut, USA 4 Faculty of Forestry and Wood Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, 165 00 Praha 6 – Suchdol, Czech Republic Corresponding author: Andrew Liebhold (
[email protected]) Academic editor: Ingolf Kühn | Received 23 April 2020 | Accepted 26 June 2020 | Published 28 July 2020 Citation: Blackburn LM, Elkinton JS, Havill NP, Broadley HJ, Andersen JC, Liebhold AМ (2020) Predicting the invasion range for a highly polyphagous and widespread forest herbivore. NeoBiota 59: 1–20. https://doi.org/10.3897/ neobiota.59.53550 Abstract Here we compare the environmental niche of a highly polyphagous forest Lepidoptera species, the winter moth (Operophtera brumata), in its native and invaded range. During the last 90 years, this European tree fo- livore has invaded North America in at least three regions and exhibited eruptive population behavior in both its native and invaded range. Despite its importance as both a forest and agricultural pest, neither the poten- tial extent of this species’ invaded range nor the geographic source of invading populations from its native range are known.