What Will Novartis Do with $13Bn Cash Pile from GSK?
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6 April 2018 No. 3899 Scripscrip.pharmaintelligence.informa.com Pharma intelligence | informa Eric Le Berrigaud, an analyst at Bryan Gar- nier, said in an investor note March 27 that $13bn “is a touch above our estimated trans- action price.” He added that the sale will provide Novartis “with more financial flexibil- ity to be used exceptional share buy-backs or access to more strategic alternatives i.e. broadening the range of targets for potential bolt-on acquisitions fitting its core business- es.” It is “strategically good for Novartis given that it simplifies and focuses its organization.” Analysts at Deutsche Bank noted that the deal would be dilutive to the tune of around 3.5% per year to core earnings per share un- less Novartis deploys the cash elsewhere. They wrote that “disappointingly, the company is vague in this regard, discussing only its stan- dard capital allocation policy, rather than any Shutterstock: Nomad_Soul Shutterstock: pre-prepared statement for a commitment to reduce the dilution through a share buy back. As such, Novartis management has the abil- What Will Novartis Do With $13bn ity to create shareholder value through this transaction but the jury remains out for now.” The jury appears to be in at Société Gé- Cash Pile From GSK? néral, where analysts issued a note say- KEVIN GROGAN [email protected] ing that the $13bn price tag “is a positive surprise” as they had valued the stake at ovartis AG CEO Vas Narasimhan capital to grow our core businesses, drive $10.6bn. They wrote that they expect Nara- has only been in the hot seat for a shareholder returns and execute value-cre- simhan “to refocus the company on innova- Ncouple of months but is wasting no ating bolt-on acquisitions.” Narasimhan also tion,” believing that Novartis will give more time in transforming the firm into a pure stressed his often-repeated message about details about its plans to redeploy the cash pharma player, selling its stake in a con- building “the leading medicines company, with its first quarter results on April 19. sumer healthcare joint venture with Glaxo- powered by digital and data.” Ian Hilliker, an analyst at Jefferies said in a SmithKline PLC for $13bn. The news comes as no great surprise, note that as the consumer healthcare sec- The Swiss major would appear to have given that the JV, created in 2015 as part of tor “does appear to be facing more difficult got a good deal, given that the figures that a three-part transaction between the two times at present, with increased competi- had been mentioned for the 36.5% stake companies, gave Novartis a put option, exer- tion, or price pressure from e-commerce, had been in the region of $9-12bn. Nara- cisable from March 2, 2018 to March 2, 2035, this looks to be a strategically well-timed de- simhan certainly thinks so, saying in a state- to require GSK to purchase its stake, or parts cision for Novartis.” Noting that the initial dis- ment that while its consumer healthcare of it. Many analysts thought that an asset posal of the JV stake will be dilutive, he said JV with GSK is progressing well, “the time is swap might have taken place but the Swiss “we would expect that Novartis will look to redeploy some of these proceeds fairly right for Novartis to divest a non-core asset major has only waited 25 days to exercise its quickly to help mitigate any dilution. It is at an attractive price.” He went on to say that option and take the cash. The question now “this will strengthen our ability to allocate is what Novartis will do with the money. CONTINUED ON PAGE 6 BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE EDITORS OF PHARMASIA NEWS, START-UP AND SCRIP INTELLIGENCE Shire’s Suitors J&J’s Price Pledge Amazon’s Adventures Takeda’s interest set to flush What’s the whole story? Expansion into healthcare out others (p7-8) (p13) a major disruption (p10) IN THIS ISSUE from the editor [email protected] Looking back at the first quarter of 2018, defining panies including Pfizer and Merck & Co have outlined themes and stories in the pharma space have included plans to return cash to shareholders, invest in capital the corporate tax reform in the US that was finally passed projects and pay employee bonuses, for example. at the end of 2017, and the increasing encroachment of As for digital disruption, minds have become in- digital technology and data in the world of healthcare. creasingly focused on the possibility that Amazon President Trump’s tax reform prompted fresh expec- will transform the drug distribution system (p10); the tations of a new wave of M&A, which has yet to mate- online retail giant’s partnership with JP Morgan and rialize in any serious way: there have been few >$1bn Berkshire Hathaway in January remains shrouded in transactions and no mega-mergers, and aside from the mystery but is significant as its first foray into health Celgene-Juno buy the larger deals have been predomi- care. That sense of looming disruption to current dis- nantly ex-US (Sanofi buying Ablynx and Bioverativ, tribution models in the US is compounded by govern- GlaxoSmithKline buying Novartis out of their con- ment threats of cost controls. Changing business mod- sumer health joint venture). Watch this space, though, els and consolidation in the PBM sector, with pharma Takeda’s revelation that it is thinking about making an veterans being brought into prominent leadership po- offer for Shire could kick start a competitive flurry (p7). sitions, indicates how seriously the market incumbents Tax reform is also prompting other investment: com- are taking the threat (p18). 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ISSN 0143 7690. 2 | Scrip | 6 April 2018 © Informa UK Ltd 2018 Ipsen’s Oncology Dream Shadows Over Hemlibra 20 9 14 Mother Of All Cytokines 19 exclusive online content inside: COVER / What Will Novartis Do With $13bn Cash Pile From GSK? Repatha Inroads Build Gradually As EU Extension Nears 4 GSK Gains Clarity For Pharma Focus Through Novartis https://bit.ly/2GSuIc4 Consumer JV Buy Europe is expected to follow where the US led in expanding 6 GSK’s Horlicks Review Plan – Some Early Expectations the label for Amgen’s PCSK9 inhibitor Repatha to include a prevention indication for heart attacks and strokes. 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