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Desafíos Para La Seguridad Y La Defensa En El Continente

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Desafíos Para La Seguridad Y La Defensa En El Continente JOSÉ GUSTAVO AROCHA “La década 2020-2030 que comienza, sin duda, quedará marcada por el sello de una pandemia que CRAIG A. DEARE lamentablemente ha dejado miles de muertes y que DESAFÍOS PARA LA SEGURIDAD Y LA DEFENSA Y LA DEFENSA LA SEGURIDAD PARA DESAFÍOS también agudizará la pobreza y la desigualdad, que AMERICANO 20 EN EL CONTINENTE DESAFÍOS PARA MARIO DUARTE son factores estructurales detrás de problemas como el narcotráfico, la violencia de las pandillas y las olas LA SEGURIDAD Y LA DEFENSA EVAN ELLIS migratorias que cruzan todo el continente. A ello se suman enormes desafíos como el cambio climático EN EL CONTINENTE AMERICANO ROSENDO FRAGA y la presencia de actores extrarregionales con agen- das disruptivas. 2020-2030 JOHN GRIFFITHS SPIELMAN ¿Cuál será el rol que tendrán las fuerzas armadas de la región en este escenario? Esa es justamente la ATHANASIOS HRISTOULAS reflexión que este libro del centro de estudios AthenaLab busca oportunamente recoger, invitan- JOSEPH HUMIRE do a expertos de distintos países en este propósito. Mis más de tres décadas en el mundo militar me MARIANA KALIL enseñaron que si las fuerzas armadas quieren ser exitosas en entornos complejos, como los actuales, AGUSTÍN MACIEL-PADILLA deben ser flexibles, abiertas y siempre estar pensan- do un paso más adelante”. 20-2030 JUAN CARLOS PINZÓN John Grifths Spielman Almirante USN (r) James Stavridis Juan Pablo Toro JOSÉ ROBLES MONTOYA editores THIAGO RODRIGUES JAMES STAVRIDIS JUAN PABLO TORO DESAFÍOS PARA LA SEGURIDAD Y LA DEFENSA EN EL CONTINENTE AMERICANO 2020-2030 Desafíos para la seguridad y la defensa en el continente americano 2020-2030 John Griffiths Spielman y Juan Pablo Toro (eds.) ATHENALAB Av. El Golf 40, Piso 12, Las Condes https://athenalab.org [email protected] © AthenaLab ISBN: 978-956-9058-42-4 Diseño y diagramación: María Soledad Sairafi [email protected] Santiago de Chile, diciembre de 2020 DESAFÍOS PARA LA SEGURIDAD Y LA DEFENSA EN EL CONTINENTE AMERICANO 2020-2030 John Grifths Spielman Juan Pablo Toro EDITORES ÍNDICE 9 Prefacio James Stavridis 13 Introducción: Desafíos para la seguridad y defensa en la década 2020-2030 John Griffiths & Juan Pablo Toro AMÉRICA DEL NORTE 19 Las Fuerzas Armadas Canadienses en un mundo cambiante al 2030 Athanasios Hristoulas 51 La agenda de defensa de Estados Unidos para la próxima década: El papel de la fuerza militar Craig A. Deare 81 El reto de la agenda de defensa de México: La ausencia de un enfoque integral de seguridad nacional Agustín Maciel-Padilla AMÉRICA CENTRAL 107 Fuerzas armadas de Centroamérica: nuevas amenazas a la soberanía Mario A. Duarte García AMÉRICA DEL SUR 133 Escenario de defensa de Argentina 2030. Prioridad: el Atlántico Sur Rosendo Fraga 149 Situación de la Seguridad y Defensa de Brasil para la década de 2020- 2030 Thiago Rodrigues & Mariana Kalil 173 Visión de la defensa nacional de Chile al 2030 John Griffiths Spielman 201 Reflexiones sobre la modernización y el futuro de las Fuerzas Armadas de Colombia: visión 2030 Juan Carlos Pinzón Bueno 233 La agenda de defensa de Perú para la próxima década: El papel de la fuerza militar José H. Robles Montoya 253 ¿Cuál es el rol de las Fuerzas Armadas en Venezuela? Joseph M. Humire & José Gustavo Arocha EPÍLOGO 275 Retos de las Fuerzas Armadas de Latinoamérica para responder a la pandemia del covid-19 Evan Ellis 317 Autores de la presente obra 319 Agradecimientos PREFACIO James Stavridis A lo largo de mi carrera en la Armada de Estados Unidos, una de las posiciones más interesantes que me tocó ejercer fue la de jefe del Comando Sur, que se encarga de todas las operaciones militares en Centroamérica, el Caribe y Sudamérica. Gracias a ella pude conocer gran parte de un continente bendecido por una extraordinaria riqueza de recursos naturales, así como por paisajes sorprendentes y personas que representan diversas cultu- ras al mismo tiempo. Se trata de una región, además, donde la guerra entre Esta- dos parece altamente improbable. Pero ese entorno regional, en apariencia pacífico, no nos puede llevar a engaño. Son muchos los desafíos que enfrenta nuestro hemisferio en materia de segu- ridad; la mayoría compartidos, dado nuestros fuertes vínculos históricos, geográficos, políticos, económicos y demográficos. En esta casa común llamada América, cada día somos más depen- dientes los unos de los otros. La década 2020-2030 que comienza, sin duda, quedará mar- cada por el sello de una pandemia que lamentablemente ha de- jado miles de muertes y que también agudizará la pobreza y la desigualdad, que son factores estructurales detrás de problemas como el narcotráfico, la violencia de las pandillas y las olas mi- gratorias que cruzan todo el continente. A ello se suman enormes JAMES STAVRIDIS | ! desafíos, como el cambio climático y la presencia de actores ex- trarregionales con agendas disruptivas. ¿Cuál será el rol que tendrán las fuerzas armadas de la región en este escenario? Esa es justamente la reflexión que este libro del centro de estudios AthenaLab busca oportunamente recoger, invitando a expertos de distintos países en este propósito. Mis más de tres décadas en el mundo militar me enseñaron que si las fuerzas armadas quieren ser exitosas en entornos complejos —como los actuales— deben ser flexibles, abiertas y siempre es- tar pensando un paso más adelante. También mi experiencia en el Comando Sur, entre 2006- 2009, me permitió conocer directamente a los Ejércitos, Arma- das y Fuerzas Aéreas de muchos de sus países, ya que juntos rea- lizamos entrenamientos y ejercicios, operaciones antinarcóticos, respondimos a crisis humanitarias y llevamos adelante misiones médicas. Es evidente que las capacidades, tamaños, equipos y tradiciones no son las mismas. Sin embargo, tenemos amenazas comunes que nos están impi- diendo desarrollar todo el potencial de nuestras sociedades. Vivi- mos en una era peligrosa, guiada por un avance tecnológico sin precedentes, donde la globalización permite potenciar a actores radicales que intentan presionar a las democracias a través de tácticas criminales y terroristas. En este sentido, cada nación se vuelve más importante para enfrentar los desafíos que depara la nueva década. Por eso, considero muy importante que se conozca cómo los distintos países avizoran el rol de sus fuerzas armadas en los próximos años. Cómo resolverán tareas que incluyen, en algu- nos casos, cooperar con aliados ante amenazas transnacionales; proteger recursos naturales en mares y selvas; ayudar a los ciu- dadanos en caso de catástrofes naturales o provocadas por el ser humano, y colaborar con las policías en el marco de procesos interagenciales. "# | PREFACIO Espero que estos artículos que se han escrito sobre Argentina, Brasil, Canadá, Colombia, Chile, Centroamérica, Estados Uni- dos, México, Perú y Venezuela sirvan para entendernos mejor y tender puentes entre nuestras Fuerzas Armadas, que son vitales para cuidar esta casa común de las Américas, donde comparti- mos intereses, valores y metas. Si las amenazas a nuestra segu- ridad, prosperidad y estabilidad evolucionan, también tenemos que hacerlo nosotros, como una familia unida por un destino compartido. Y por sobre todo, debemos navegar juntos, en una sociedad, en América. JAMES STAVRIDIS | "" INTRODUCCIÓN: DESAFÍOS PARA LA SEGURIDAD Y DEFENSA EN LA DÉCADA 2020-2030 John Griffiths Juan Pablo Toro El inicio de la década 2020-2030 quedará marcado de forma indeleble por los efectos de la pandemia de covid-19, que ha cau- sado cientos de miles de muertos y ha generado una severa crisis económica en el mundo. La crisis sanitaria incluso tiene hoy al continente americano convertido en su epicentro. Para enfrentar la emergencia, muchos países han tenido que desplegar sus fuer- zas armadas en distintas tareas, que incluyen ayudar a contro- lar cuarentenas, proteger fronteras, distribuir insumos médicos, trasladar pacientes críticos y prestar sus capacidades hospitalarias a los servicios nacionales de salud. Si bien las pandemias no son un fenómeno nuevo, y varios ejércitos de la región se han movilizado en el pasado reciente para ayudar a frenar la propagación del cólera o del virus del Zika —como ha ocurrido también con los desastres naturales—, la necesidad de hacer frente a este nuevo coronavirus ha puesto en evidencia que hoy se impone un espectro amplio del uso de las fuerzas militares en ámbitos que no tienen que ver con lo bélico. JOHN GRIFFITHS & JUAN PABLO TORO | "$ En particular en América Latina, donde la consolidación es- tatal es muy dispar, las poblaciones se dan cuentan de que no tienen otras instituciones mejor organizadas y preparadas para desplegarse rápidamente por el territorio y por eso recurren a ellas. Así es como los militares van sumando y sumando misiones de naturaleza social, que las alejan progresivamente de su propó- sito original de ganar la guerra y garantizar la paz. Ya en varios países están cumpliendo un rol policial sostenido frente a com- plejas realidades de tipo criminal. ¿Pero si hoy hacen de todo, podrán cumplir bien con sus numerosas misiones? ¿Qué nuevos escenarios demandarán la participación de los militares en esta década que comienza? ¿Con qué equipos o entrenamiento debe- rán contar? Estimamos en AthenaLab que para reflexionar sobre estas inte- rrogantes era propicia la Cumbre de Ministros de Defensa de las Américas que se celebró en Chile este 2020. El propósito original de este libro es justamente aportar con miradas y experiencias de destacados expertos de Argentina, Brasil, Canadá, Centroaméri- ca, Chile, Colombia, Estados
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