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Annual Report 2019

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Annual Report 2019 Annual Report 2019 July 2020 Note of the Governor Note of the Governor 03/08/20209 Over 2019, Tunisia could have carried on with the upward trend of growth initiated since 2017, had it not been for the conjunction of a set of adverse factors, both domestic and external, leading to a weak growth rate of just 1% against 2.5% a year before. In fact, the international environment was not lenient for our national economy, as world growth has been at its lowest level since the international financial crisis: 2.9% with respect to 2019. The main factors of this deceleration are related to uncertainties about trade and geopolitical tensions, as well as to the Brexit, hitting world trade very hard. Even largely accommodating monetary policies did not manage to give impetus to this anemic growth. Aside from this complex external environment, the Tunisian economy was strongly influenced by a national context marked by extension the political transition phase and election dates, as well as by a persisting tense political and social climate. The delay of these electoral dates created a political vacuum of about six months, leading to economic reforms’ postponement. Against this gloomy backdrop, growth suffered, particularly, from the effect of the drop in external demand especially for manufacturing industries, the impact of adverse weather conditions on the olive for oil harvest, as well as persistent difficulties at the extracting industries’ level, affecting among others, the balance of current payments and public finances with a substantial shortfall which is dipping year-to-year. Economic growth was, nonetheless, rescued by the tourist sector which flourished over 2019, by resuming, overall, performances prior to 2011. As for demand, private consumption ran out of steam, while investment and exports declined, affecting not only growth of the current period but also future growth, given, notably, that investment which has already been on a downhill slide over the previous decade, is still cut down by a savings rate which is still in fall: 8.8% of GNDI. Besides, this weak economic performance did not help to significantly consolidate job creation, which, despite its recovery, is still not enough to absorb unemployment, the rate of which remains worrisome, in spite of a certain decrease: 14.9 % in 2019 against 15.5% a year before. Yet, and despite indicators that are still alarming, it must be said that stabilisation efforts conducted over the previous years helped to prevent against a slippage of overall Annual Report 2019 i Note of the Governor imbalances which would have deepened difficulties weighing down on an already limited budgetary and financial room for maneuver, particularly with a drop in the twin deficits. In fact, the current deficit came to 8.5% of GDP against 11.2% in 2018, in line, notably, with tourist receipts’ improvement by more than 35%, from one year to the next, and the 15% rise in transfers of Tunisians living abroad, aside from imports’ shrinking, tied to economic activity slowdown. Likewise, and thanks to a considerable effort as regards collection of tax receipts, the budgetary deficit was reduced by 1.3 percentage point, coming to 3.5% of GDP, which had a positive impact on public debt ratios. However, public balance is still characterized by an excessive rigidity of current expenditure, notably, the "Salaries and wages" and "Equalisation" headings, which is likely to drive investment expenditure off, bearing in mind public finances’ budgetary constraints. Thus, it should be recalled that the ongoing deterioration of the Tunisian economy’s basics particularly between 2017 and 2018 led the Central Bank to react in order to counterbalance macroeconomic balances slippage risks. The adopted approach aimed at bringing the real interest rate into a positive territory so as to favour inflation convergence towards its long-term average. This restrictive orientation of monetary policy which firmed up by the key interest rates’ raising, in February 2019 to 7.75%, strongly supported the deflationary process and succeeded in bringing the inflation rate from a maximum of 7.7% in June 2018 to 6.1% in December 2019. At the prudential level, establishment, in November 2018 of a credit / deposit ratio at 120%, contributed to curbing banks’ needs for liquidity and bringing the overall volume of refinancing from 15.8 billion dinars at the end of 2018 to 11.5 billions at the end of 2019. The different measures taken by the Central Bank of Tunisia contributed also to reducing demand for foreign currency and creating a new liquidity dynamics on the foreign exchange market which, boosted by a better monitoring of the external payments situation, helped to consolidate net assets in foreign currency, up from 84 days to 111 days of import, from one year to the next. These measures helped also to adjust the dinar’s downward track, breaking up, thus, with a virtually continuous depreciation circle initiated since the 2015 terrorist attacks. This resulted in a positive effect on external debt indicators. On the other hand, the year 2019 was marked by a fostered resilience of the financial sector in favour of a better monitoring of credit and macro-financial risks following restrictive monetary policy and macro-prudential measures. However, macroeconomic conditions are still weighing down on the credit portfolio’s quality, which justifies the additional provisioning effort undertaken in 2019. Annual Report 2019 ii Nevertheless, external balances’ improvement, resulting from the restrictive nature of monetary and budgetary policies since 2018 must not hide persisting vulnerabilities, notably at the energy balance’s balance level, which is ceaselessly deteriorating and dragging down the overall trade balance, in the absence of a viable transition strategy, aside from certain exporting sectors’ weak competitiveness. In fact, recovery remains fragile and can only be preserved and boosted by striving rapidly to restore economic growth by implementing bold economic policies which come within the framework of overall structural reforms allowing for activity recovery notably in the foreign currency-generating sectors, namely phosphate and fuel. Notwithstanding these constraints, stabilisation efforts conducted by the authorities conferred Tunisia with a greater credibility internationally, notably with the IMF. This is demonstrated through the success of the fifth review of the Extended Facility Fund which was achieved in April 2019. Total disbursements with respect to this programme amounted to 1.6 billion dollars. However, slowness of the process to form the new Government hampered holding, over the last quarter of 2019, of the sixth review of the above-said programme and arose reflection around a new form of financial cooperation with the Fund. Concurrently with financial assistance, the year 2019 also bore the mark of a significant fostering of technical cooperation, established thanks to the BCT’s close ties with its partners. This cooperation is intended to technical support over a wide range of activities covering the Bank’s main professions, as well as to accompanying implementation of the BCT’s first Strategic Plan, spanning the 2019-2021 period. The adopted approach in this regard reconciles the need to improve operational soundness with the requirements of the ecosystem where the Bank operates. Besides, within its strategic approach and in line with financial technologies industry, the BCT has assigned to itself a "Facilitator" role with the Fintech ecosystem. In fact, the year 2019 was devoted to preparing the establishment of efficient mechanisms capable of promoting financial innovation in Tunisia, while preserving a sound operation of the financial system. This is how the Fintech Committee was created, within a participatory approach, and was in charge of getting the issuing Institute closer to the Startups community specialised in finance-oriented solutions. In addition, the regulatory SandBox was created, constituting a space for real tests and a managed- care environment to initiate innovations, aside from the financial inclusion Unit and the banking services consumers protection Unit which aims at favouring financial inclusion and protecting banking services’ users. This action is part of the triennial strategic plan, the aim of which is to promote good practices and reinforce economic actors’ confidence in the financial system, by covering all aspects of the Bank-Client relationship. Annual Report 2019 iii Note of the Governor Through these structures, and by means of a more pronounced opening up on its ecosystem notably the technological one, the Central Bank of Tunisia contributes to establishing a new financial culture spotlighting new payment modes which substitute for cash. The BCT aims, in this context, at achieving two objectives. The first one is relevant to modernising payment means towards more convenient ones for users. In his respect, the regulatory text on Mobile Payment establishment was promulgated in May 2020. The second objective consists in being endowed with a supplementary protection against money laundering and terrorism financing. Worth to be recalled, in this context, that considerable efforts were rewarded in October 2019 by Tunisia’s delisting from GAFI’s black list after 20 months of ranking, thanks, notably to the Tunisian Commission of Financial Analyses’ achievements. For the year 2020, the rampant spread of the Covid-19 pandemic and the ensuing drastic containment measures have severely shaken markets and affected economic agents’ attitude, announcing entry of several countries in the world, including Tunisia, in a steep recession. Faced up with this unprecedented crisis which fomented uncertainty, decision-making was not easy. In this tumultuous environment, the Central Bank has privileged financial stability considerations by being committed, with determination, alongside the Government, in a logic favouring rescue of productive entities and jobs, while keeping in mind the need to prepare the post-Covid 19 period and ensure that businesses preserve their sustainability and get ready to take profit from the new opportunities that are offered to them, both nationwide and worldwide.
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