STATISTICAL REPORT 2018 Editor: John Cooper Copyright © Fuelseurope

Printed in Belgium - Designed by www.morris-chapman.com STATISTICAL REPORT 2018

Statistical Report 2018 5

Foreword

High quality, verified and reliable facts and figures Colour coding aims to help our readers browse are essential to support economic and political effectively through the document. Each colour analysis. For this purpose, FuelsEurope Statistical corresponds to a specific theme making browsing Report 2018 aims at providing a comprehensive between subsections user-friendly. We hope that set of statistics about the refining industry that you will find this Report useful. can be used by all stakeholders. • Oil & Energy This 2018 edition contains the most up-to-date information based on currently available data for • Oil Products the sector. One should however note that some • Prices & Margins of the data is updated every 2 or 4 years. • Refining This includes global energy markets, oil products demand and international trade flows, fuel • Marketing Infrastructures specifications, prices and margins, the integration with the petrochemical sector as well as the environmental performance of the EU refining industry.

John Cooper Director General 6 Statistical Report 2018

7% 3% orl 5% ropea io 33% il cosptio is easre i illio toes oter els i illio toes o oil eialet toe WORLD: 28% 13 276 Mtoe Mtoe

000 24% 00 4 418

000 3 732 00 3 204 5% 8% 000 www.linkedin.com/company/fuelseurope www.twitter.com/FuelsEurope 12% 2 00 37%

2 000 EU:: 15% 1 642 Mtoe 1 00

1 000 910 613 592 24% 00 386 420 238 190 79 136

it illio toes a oil eialet toe 0 www.youtube.com/fuelseurope www.fuelseurope.eu il atral oal clear ro Reeales as eer electricit Oil & Energy - Statistical Report 2018 7

FIG.1 WORLDWIDE ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY FUEL TYPE IN 2016 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017

7% 3% orl 5% ropea io 33% il cosptio is easre i illio toes oter els i illio toes o oil eialet toe WORLD: 28% 13 276 Mtoe Mtoe

000 24% 00 4 418

000 3 732 00 3 204 5% 8% 000 12% 2 00 37%

2 000 EU:: 15% 1 642 Mtoe 1 00

1 000 910 613 592 24% 00 386 420 238 190 79 136

it illio toes a oil eialet toe 0

il atral oal clear ro Reeales as eer electricit

Oil, natural gas, and coal remain the dominant source of energy The EU, unlike other major economies, has a higher share of fuelling the global economy (together 85%). Oil remained the nuclear (11.6%), renewables and hydro (13.1%) in its energy mix. main energy source globally. The overall share for renewables, including hydro electricity, remains relatively small (10%). Note: Please note that due to rounding, figures may not add up exactly to 100%. 8 Statistical Report 2018 - Oil & Energy

FIG.2 WORLDWIDE ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY REGION IN 2016 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017

O O

OE OE

E- O l energy E- l energy E e e it toe E E E

Global energy consumption grew by 1% in 2016. EU-28 share of oil (14%) and natural gas (12%) consumption remained at the same level. However, the EU’s share of coal consumption decreased by OE it illio toes per ear 1% point (6%). As presented in figure 1, oil (37%) and natural gas (24%) remain the main energy source in the EU (61%). Coal is the main energy S source consumed in China and India and together O these two countries are responsible for 62% of global coal consumption. E l energy E- S R R E e Note: Oil consumption is measured in million R RS tonnes; other fuels in million tonnes of oil E E equivalent (Mtoe). S Please note that due to rounding, figures R may not add up to exactly 100%. S R S 201 Oil & Energy - Statistical Report 2018 9

FIG.3 WORLDWIDE CRUDE OIL MOVEMENT IN 2016 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017

O O

OE OE

E- O l energy E- l energy E e e it toe E E E

OE it illio toes per ear S O E l energy E- S R R E e R RS Crude oil is an internationally traded commodity with trade flows S E E taking place all over the world. R There are two open and transparent markets - crude oil and refined S products - within which the European refining industry operates. R S 201 10 Statistical Report 2018 - Oil & Energy

FIG.4 WORLDWIDE REFINED PRODUCT DEMAND* AVERAGED 96.5 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY IN 2016, WITH EU ACCOUNTING FOR 13% Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017

OE O E

l O E E

E E EOE i i E n n E

Global demand for oil demand products increased from 96.1 *Inland demand plus international aviation and marine million barrels per day in 2015 to 96.5 in 2016. Although the bunkers and refinery fuel and loss. Consumption of European market is declining, it still remains the second biogasoline (such as ethanol), biodiesel and derivatives largest in the world (15%) behind North America. China, of coal and natural gas are also included. Middle East and Africa noted a continued growth in demand for refined products. Oil & Energy - Statistical Report 2018 11

FIG.5 WORLDWIDE REFINING SUPPLY/MARKET DEMAND BALANCES IN 2017 Source: Wood Mackenzie

OE O E

O EOE E l O E E E E

it illio toes per ear E & OE

E E EOE i i E n n E

RR R R R RS

The refining supply/market demand balance shows that Relatively balanced product demand and refinery throughput most of the regions are dependent on imports to meet in the EU hides a large surplus of EU gasoline production and market demand. Russia has a positive trade balance, which a significant shortage of diesel and jet production. provides it with a key role in supplying the demand from other regions. 12 Statistical Report 2017 - Oil & Energy

FIG.6 EU TOTAL OIL DEMAND AMOUNTED TO 630 MILLION TONNES IN 2017 Source: Wood Mackenzie

O y O y stria tal eli atia laria itaia roatia eor prs alta ec Replic eterlas ear ola stoia ortal ila Roaia race Sloaia era Sloeia

it illio toes per ear reece Spai ar See rela ite io E O ora Siterla re O O O

EU-28 total oil demand amounted to 630.2 Mt in 2017, Among EU Member States that recorded the biggest fall in representing a slight increase of approximatively 0.7% the oil demand were Malta (-4.1%), Luxembourg (-3.7%) and compared to 2016. Italy (-3.7%).

Most EU Member States recorded an increase in oil demand. Note: Please note that due to rounding, figures may not add up. Czech Republic, Poland and Sweden with respectively 17.2%, 6.1% and 4.3%, show the biggest increase. Prices and Margins - Statistical Report 2018 13 HOW TO REDUCE CARBON EMISSIONS IN

? 14 Statistical Report 2017 - Oil & Energy

Providing low-carbon liquid fuels

The pathway to reduce CO2 emissions ? Oil Products - Statistical Report 2017 15

FIG.7 DEMAND HISTORY OF OIL PRODUCTS IN THE EU IN 2017 Source: Wood Mackenzie

800

00 otal ea 201

00 00 00 it illio toes per ear 200

100 0 200 200 200 2008 200 2010 2011 2012 201 201 201 201 201

Since 2008, we can observe a downward trend for oil products demand in the EU. Over the past SS 8 years, overall demand declined by around 8%. The downward trend is mainly driven by the RS R RS decrease in fuel oil and gasoline, whilst diesel/ S RR SS gasoil and kerosene decreased only slightly. 16 Statistical Report 2018 - Oil Products

FIG.8 AVERAGE REFINERY OUTPUT BY PRODUCT TYPE IN OECD EUROPE IN 2017 Source: OECD/IEA

O PO P

O O

A wide range of products, from transportation and industrial for transport and industry, petroleum coke for the metal fuels to chemical feedstock, are produced from crude oil. industry as well as waxes, solvents and other specialised EU refineries also produce many specialty products, such products. Fuels for transport represent the biggest share of as bitumen for road construction and roofing, lubricants the production. Oil Products - Statistical Report 2018 17

FIG.9 ROAD FUEL DEMAND IN THE EU IN 2017 Source: Wood Mackenzie 00000

P 20000 O PO P

200000

O O 10000 ieselasolie ratio 100000 it illio toes per ear

O 0000

O 2 0 2 0 1 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 8 2 0 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1 2 0 1

S S R

The tax-incentivised dieselisation trend has significantly gasoline as well as a shortage of diesel production in the EU. contributed to a fundamental change in the EU’s road fuel Gasoline demand continues to decline while diesel demand demand structure. The shift from gasoline to diesel began is on the rise, currently reaching a 2.5 demand ratio in 2017. some 25 years ago and led to a major demand decline for 18 Statistical Report 2018 - Oil Products

FIG.10 ROAD FUEL DEMAND IN THE EU BY COUNTRY IN 2017 Source: Wood Mackenzie

era race ite io tal Spai ola eterlas eli stria See ec Replic Sustained on by favourable excise taxes Roaia on diesel, the shift from gasoline to diesel ortal over the past two decades led to a higher reece demand for diesel as a road fuel in the vast majority of EU Member States. ar ear In some countries, such as France and ila Spain the imbalance is far more pronounced rela as a result of very favourable tax policies laria for diesel. Moreover, recent measures to rebalance taxation level of diesel with Sloaia gasoline could trigger a progressive shift in eor diesel demand. roatia Sloeia The continued growth in heavy duty transport in the EU, driven by the internal itaia market and external trade, has further atia contributed to spurring diesel demand. stoia prs alta

20 1 10 - - 10 1 20 2 0

it illio toes per ear S S Oil Products - Statistical Report 2018 19

FIG.11 NET TRADE FLOWS FOR REFINED PRODUCTS DEMONSTRATE THE TREND OF GROWING GASOLINE SURPLUS AND DIESEL / GASOIL / era JET FUEL DEFICITS race Source: Eurostat ite io tal Spai 80 ola eterlas eli 0 et asolie eports stria 1 toes See ec Replic 0 Roaia ortal reece 20 ar ear ila rela 0 et ieselasoil laria iports 2 1 toes

Sloaia it ercetae iportspercetae eports eor 20 roatia Sloeia et et el iports itaia 1 222 toes 0 atia stoia 2000 2001 2002 200 200 200 200 200 2008 200 2010 2011 2012 201 201 201 201 prs The EU is facing significant excess gasoline production capacity, S alta and is however unable to meet regional demand for diesel and jet SS 20 1 10 - - 10 1 20 2 0 fuel. Therefore the EU is relying on imports from third countries.

it illio toes per ear S S 20 Statistical Report 2018 - Oil Products

FIG.12 MAJOR GASOLINE AND DIESEL/GASOIL TRADE FLOWS TO AND FROM THE EU IN 2016 Source: Eurostat

it illio toes per ear

The major trade flows to and from the EU are a result of the gasoline/ S 201 diesel imbalance demand in Europe. As a consequence, significant excess SS 201 gasoline production capacity needs to be exported, while, to meet regional demand for diesel and jet fuel, Europe became heavily reliant on other S R S 201 countries for import, especially Russia, the Middle East and USA. SS R S 201

North America was the traditional market for exporting gasoline surplus but the recent shale oil revolution and cheap energy enabled US refiners to increase their supplies for their internal market and compete on other export markets with EU refiners. Oil Products - Statistical Report 2018 21

FIG.13 EU GASOLINE TRADING BALANCE USA REMAINS AN IMPORTANT EXPORT MARKET FOR THE EU Source: Eurostat

EXPORT

2016

2015

2014 2013 O 2012 2011

2010 2009 2008

2007

2006 it illio toes per ear 2005

2004

2003 EUROPE NON EU

2002 REST OF THE WORLD USA S 201 2001 ot Please note that due to rounding, SS 201 2000 ﬁgures may not add up to exactly 100%. S R S 201 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 SS R S 201 Unit: Million tonnes per year

The US was the traditional export market for the structural EU other markets, primarily Africa and Asia. The EU gasoline gasoline surplus. The recent shale oil boom has decreased surplus in 2016 remained high. North America and Asia were export opportunities to the US and forced EU refiners to find the two key export markets for the EU. 22 Statistical Report 2018 - Oil Products

FIG.14 EU DIESEL/GASOIL TRADING BALANCE RUSSIA IS A LEADING EXPORTER OF GASOIL TO THE EU Source: Eurostat IMPORT EXPORT 2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000 40 30 20 10 0 10 20

ot Please note that due to rounding, Unit: Million tonnes per year ﬁgures may not add up exactly to 100%.

NORTH AMERICA After a significant increase of gasoil imports from the US between 2008 and 2013, Russia recovered some of the lost shares in 2014-2016 to remain the RUSSIA leading gasoil exporter to the EU. This continued dependence of the EU on REST OF THE WORLD imports of gasoil is the result of the diesel/gasoline imbalance that the EU is facing for many years. Oil Products - Statistical Report 2018 23

FIG.15 EU JET FUEL TRADING BALANCE MIDDLE EAST REMAINS MAIN JET FUEL SUPPLIER FOR THE EU Source: Eurostat R R

201 201 201 201 2012 2011 2010 200 2008 200 200 200 200 200 2002 2001 2000

20 1 10 0 it illio toes per ear RS R S There is a growing EU dependence on jet fuel imports originating mainly from the Middle East and to a lesser S R extent from Asia Pacific.

Note: Please note that due to rounding, figures may not add up exactly to 100%. 24 Statistical Report 2018 - Oil Products

FIG.16a GLOBAL MARINE FUEL CONSUMPTION Source: Wood Mackenzie

00 000 The global demand for marine 206 937 fuel is mainly met by fuel 20 000 oil (76%), while gasoil only 176 420 represents 24% of the market. 200 000 The new limits for sulphur content of marine fuels could 10 000 drastically change the market S with a massive demand for 100 000 low sulphur distillates, requiring 64 477 major refinery investments. 0 000 47 828 it osptio 1000 toes 0

200 200 200 2008 200 2010 2011 2012 201 201 201 201 201

FIG.16b MARINE FUEL CONSUMPTION IN THE EU Source: Wood Mackenzie

0 000 During the past years there was a rise in marine gasoil 0 000 consumption at the expense 45 630 of fuel oil. Switching to LNG or 37 231 0 000 using scrubbers are alternatives to meeting the new International 0 000 Maritime Organisation (IMO) 0 000 S emissions limits.

20 000 13 276 10 000 11 073 it osptio 1000 toes 0

200 200 200 2008 200 2010 2011 2012 201 201 201 201 201 Oil Products - Statistical Report 2018 25

FIG.17 MARINE FUEL SULPHUR SPECIFICATIONS SULPHUR EMISSION CONTROL AREAS (SECAs) Source: IMO

stalise s ossile s

Limits for the sulphur content of marine fuels in SECAs: 200 nautical miles from the coast of US and Canada, have had to 1% until 31 December 2014 reduce their sulphur emissions to 0.1%. Vessels are required to 0.1% since 1 January 2015 use either a distillate, an alternate fuel or install a scrubber that removes sulphur from the exhaust after combustion. Limits for the sulphur content of marine fuels outside SECAs in the EU waters by 2020: 0.50% for EU waters by 2020. The implementation date for the 0.5% global sulphur cap is set for 2020, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Marine Since January 2015, all vessels in the Emission Controlled Area Environment Protection Committee decided at its 70th session (ECA) of the Baltic Sea, North Sea, English Channel and waters in London. 26 Statistical Report 2018 - Oil Products

FIG.18a PM EMISSIONS FROM EXHAUST IN THE EU REDUCED BY OVER 60% Source: European Environment Agency

P P 00 00

0 0

00 00

20 20

200 200

10 10 it ilo toes t 100 100

0 0

0 0 10 1 2002 2008 201 10 1 2002 2008 201

2 erall trasport eissios 10 erall trasport eissios

2 ast eissios 10 ast eissios

PM emissions are continuously decreasing as the result of With the introduction of the Euro 6 standard, modern road cleaner diesel fuel, advanced engines and effective emissions vehicles with diesel engines are using highly efficient filters control technology. that remove 99.9% of PM. Oil Products - Statistical Report 2018 27

FIG.18b SINCE 1990 FUELS ARE GETTING PROGRESSIVELY CLEANER RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS Source: European Environment Agency

8000

O 000 00

000 00

2000 200

1000 100

0 0 10 2000 201 10 2000 201

000 000 O O 0000

Unit: Kilo tonnes (kt) 000 2000 000 20000 000 1000 2000 10000

1000 000

0 0 10 2000 201 10 2000 201

Since 1990 the refining industry has contributed to cleaner NOX (as NO2) - Nitrogen Oxides exhausts by today containing over 80% lower SOX, NMVOC SOX (as SO2) - Sulphur Oxides

& CO, while NOX emissions decreased by over 60%. These NMVOC - Non Methane Volatile Organic Compounds significant improvements are the result of the partnerships CO - Carbon Monoxide with the automotive industry aiming at improving the fuel- engine efficiency and leading to multiple environmental benefits. 28 Statistical Report 2018 - Oil Products

FIG.19 MAXIMUM ON-ROAD DIESEL SULPHUR LIMITS Source: Stratas Advisors, March 2018

10 1 1 0 1 0 1 00 01 2000 2001 10000 o ioratio

Countries may apply lower limits for different grades, regions/ Detailed information on limits and regulations can be found at cities, or based on average content. www.stratasadvisors.com. Oil Products - Statistical Report 2018 29

FIG.20 MAXIMUM GASOLINE SULPHUR LIMITS Source: Stratas Advisors, March 2018

10 1 1 0 1 0 0 10 11 0 1 0 1 00 01 2000 2001 10000 o ioratio 1 10 11 00 01 00 o ioratio

FIG.21 CRUDE OIL PRICE EVOLUTION Source: Energy Information Administration

10 R 201 120

100

0 it rope ret spot price

S ollar per arrel ot aerae 20

0 10 11 12 1 1 1 1 1 18 1 2000 2001 2002 200 200 200 200 200 2008 200 2010 2011 2012 201 201 201 201 201 2018

The EU Refining industry operates between two global, open After a decade of relatively low prices, oil started rising last and transparent markets: the market for crude oil and the market decade, leading to peaks just before the financial crisis in 2008. for refined products. The main benchmarks are priced in dollars. In March 2016, oil prices fell sharply reaching closing prices below 40 $. Prices rose again in 2017 to reach $70 in January The price of crude oil is set on international spot markets and 2018. reported by designated agencies. The price of oil is an important marker for the global economy and is closely watched by businesses and policy-makers. 32 Statistical Report 2018 - Prices and Margins

FIG.22 BRENT V WTI Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)

120

100

0 it erae aal price Sl

0 200 200 200 2008 200 2010 2011 2012 201 201 201 201 201

ret

Brent and West Texas Intermediate are two of the main crude costs, though this differential decreased last year. The lifting of oil benchmarks. Historically, these crudes, of similar quality, the US crude oil export ban is one of the reasons that led to the have traded at similar prices. Recent years saw Brent trade at narrowing of the spread between North Sea Brent and U.S. West a premium to WTI, meaning EU refiners generally faced higher Texas Intermediate. Prices and Margins - Statistical Report 2018 33

FIG.23 REFINERS OPERATE BETWEEN TWO GLOBAL COMMODITY MARKETS: CRUDE MARKET AND REFINED PRODUCTS MARKET 120 Source: Wood Mackenzie & Argus Media

100 10

120 R

100 S 80 S 80 S R 0 S R 0 0

0 EU refining operates between two global 0 it erae aal price Sl commodity markets, the crude market 1111812000200120022002002002002002008200201020112012201201201201201 and the refined products market. it erae earl prices S ollar per arrel

20 The ‘crack spread’ represents the difference between the cost of crude oil 10 and the market sales price for refined products. Generally, product prices rise 120 with crude prices but the drivers of the 0 200 200 200 2008 200 2010 2011 2012 201 201 201 201 201 100 difference are many. In historic terms, the profitability has started to decline in ret 80 a context of falling demand (2008).

After a first, yet small, improvement, in 0 2012-2013 a better period started for 0 refineries in 2015-2017. The spread is generally tight, margins are low and 20 the industry is highly vulnerable to the operating costs that must be deducted 0 from the spread before profitability can be considered. 1111812000200120022002002002002002008200201020112012201201201201201 it erae earl prices S ollar per arrel 34 Statistical Report 2018 - Prices and Margins

FIG.24 AVERAGE ESTIMATED QUANTIFIABLE IMPACT OF THE LEGISLATION ON EU REFINERIES DURING 2000-2012 BARREL OF THROUGHPUT Source: European Commission, Sectoral fitness check for the petroleum refining sector

00 0 strial issios 00 Reeale er ioel ap 0 Reeale er 00 oelle et oreoe earis 02 el alit 020

01 it Rl o tropt

010

0 pact ri 20002012

The European Commission Fitness Check concluded that sector’s decline in competitiveness versus regional peers. The refiners suffered additional costs of 0.47€ per barrel due to EU European Commission Refining Fitness Check was published in regulation from 2000 to 2012, accounting for a quarter of the December 2015 after almost three years of analysis. Prices and Margins - Statistical Report 2018 35

FIG.25 CUMULATIVE COST IMPACT OF EU LEGISLATION IN 2020 Source: Concawe

12.0 12.0 cs ig cs 11.5 scenari 11.5 scenari ) ) l l b b b 11.0 b 11.0 / / $ $ ( (

s 10.5 s 10.5 r r e e n n

ﬁ 10.0 ﬁ 10.0 e e r r

U 9.5 U 9.5 E E o o t t

t 9.0 t 9.0 s s o o c c

8.5 8.5 d d e e t t

a 8.0 a 8.0 m m i i t t s 7.5 s 7.5

7.0 7.0 Unit: E Unit: E 6.5 6.5

6.0 6.0 Baseline ETS IED REACH RED SLFD Baseline ETS IED REACH RED SLFD opex (MFD) opex (MFD)

This chart provides an estimation of the cost burden likely to ETS - Emission Trading Scheme (2009/29/EC) be imposed on EU refineries over the period 2010 to 2020 as IED - Industrial Emission Directive (2010/75/EC) the result of a number of EU legislative and implementing acts. It shows the cumulative impact in a low and high cost scenario, REACH - Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation & Restriction expressed in dollars per barrel of refinery intake. These estimated of Chemicals (Regulation 1907/2006) costs impacts should be seen in the context of the EU refining RED - Renewable Energy Directive (2009/28/EC) net margin not exceeding 5$/bbl in recent years (source: IEA Market Series - Oil 2018 -Analysis and forecasts to 2023). SLFD - The Sulphur in Liquid Fuels Directive (1999/32/EC)

The legislation under consideration has the potential to OPEX - Operating Expense significantly increase the operating costs of the EU refining For EU ETS, ‘low cost scenario assumes 16.5 €/t CO , high cost industry, thereby impairing its competitive position relative to 2 scenario 30 €/t CO . other world regions where similar legislation is not enacted or is 2 enforced at later dates. 36 Statistical Report 2018 - Prices and Margins

FIG.26 FUEL TAXES MAKE A SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTION TO MEMBER STATE NATIONAL INCOME Source: Eurostat, Wood Mackenzie and European Commission

SS 10 R 10 S Sloeia 12 R laria 11

stoia 11 R roatia 10 11 R Roaia 10 itaia 10 10 atia prs 8 ola 8 reece 8 8 ortal 8 8 ec 8 8 S Sloaia 8 12 10 10 ar 8 rela 11 S Spai eor 8 alta tal

eli stria eterlas era R race ila Taxes on fuels contribute on average to some 7% of Member State tax revenue. S See This significant contribution to Member State revenue has to be put in perspective ear with the subsidies given to many competing alternatives to oil. This demonstrates that replacing petroleum products by these alternatives would have severe consequences for Member States’ income.

*Figures are based on 2017 tax revenues Prices and Margins - Statistical Report 2018 37

FIG.27 TOTAL TAXATION SHARE IN THE END CONSUMER PRICE Source: European Commission

-P RSR R S eerands nied ingd 0 reece egi inand 1 a FI nied ingd rance 54 a enia SE eran reand 52 eden EE 60 56 eerands rance LV eran DK 59 55 Prga LT Prga 53 aia 55 50 snia NL IE PL enia UK DE Maa 58 57 56 55 51 reand 64 BE aia CZ egi 62 LU inand 60 54 SK 52 enar 55 48 raia FR AT 53 HU raia RO enar 61 60 SI 55 52 snia HR 54 51 ec eic ec eic 54 sria BG sria IT rs 52 49 Maa ES 61 eden ngar 55 50 EL ngar rs PT 52 reece iania 56 aia aia 57 55 MT Pand ain ania CY Pand The price at the pump is driven to a large degree by tariffs and taxes and, on ain 56 53 erg average, over half the cost of fuel at the pump represents taxes. The taxes iania ania on gasoline are generally higher than for diesel. This differential tax treatment garia has driven a demand shift over the past 20 years. Fuels taxes contribute garia erg substantially to Member States’ revenues.

Reference date: 13 March 2018. 38 Statistical Report 2018 - Prices and Margins

FIG.28 BREAKDOWN OF AUTOMOTIVE DIESEL PRICES ACROSS EU (MARCH 2018) Source: European Commission

P See tal ite io race ila reece eli ear stoia rela ortal eterlas prs Sloeia roatia alta era ar Sloaia ec Replic R atia RS Roaia Spai stria it rice i ro itaia per litre ola laria eor

0000 0200 000 000 0800 1000 1200 100 100

In most EU Member States gasoline prices are generally higher the remainder represents taxes, the biggest share, the purchase than diesel prices due to the higher tax element. Only a fraction of the crude and the distribution and marketing costs. of the price paid at the pump contributes to the refiners’ income, Prices and Margins - Statistical Report 2018 39

FIG.29 BREAKDOWN OF AUTOMOTIVE GASOLINE PRICES ACROSS EU (MARCH 2018) Source: European Commission

P tal eterlas reece ear ortal race See ila ite io rela era eli alta Sloaia stoia roatia Sloeia atia Spai prs R ec Replic RS itaia stria ar it rice i ro eor per litre Roaia ola laria

0000 0200 000 000 0800 1000 1200 100 100

In most EU Member States, gasoline prices are generally Only a fraction of the price paid at the pump contributes to higher than diesel prices due to the higher tax element. the refiners’ income, the remainder going to Member States and the purchasing of the crude oil. 40 Statistical Report 2018 - Refining Vision 2050 A PATHWAY FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE REFINING INDUSTRY AND LIQUID FUELS Refining -Statistical Report 2017 41

FIG.30 GLOBAL REFINING CAPACITY AS OF 2016 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017

North Europe + America Eurasia Russia

Unit: Thousand barrels daily

Latin Middlee Asia America Africa East Paciﬁc

Refining is spread around the world and is a truly global decreased from 17.7% in 2015 to 17.3% in 2016 but remains the business. The share of Europe and Eurasia (Rusia excluded) has third largest refining region. 42 Statistical Report 2018 - Refining

FIG.31 REFINERY INVESTMENTS IN REFERENCE CASE 2017 - 2040 Source: OPEC World Oil Outlook 2017

R RR S 20 S RS

10 it 201 illio

0 e in Ri ie i e in i- n ei in ifi

All three categories of refinery investment requirements maintenance, $265 billion to investments in known project and are estimated at over $1.5 trillion in the period 2017-2040. the remaining $385 billion to additions beyond firm projects. The majority, around $900 billion will be dedicated to

S RR

R RR S RR Refining -Statistical Report 2018 43

FIG.32 REFINERY/STEAM CRACKER SITES IN EUROPE Source: Concawe and PetrochemicalsEurope

R RR S 20 S RS

10 it 201 illio

0 e in Ri ie i e in i- n ei in ifi

S RR

R RR S RR A large number of refineries are integrated with or located very Such interconnections show how refining is an intrinsic part of closely to steam crackers which produce the feedstock for the the industrial value chain and provides the basis for advanced petrochemical industry. high value products. 44 Statistical Report 2018 - Refining

FIG.33 80 MAINSTREAM REFINERIES WERE OPERATING IN THE EU, NORWAY AND SWITZERLAND AT THE END OF 2017 Source: Concawe

e e R efineie R efineie stria rela eli tal laria itaia roatia eterlas ec Replic ola ear ortal ila Roaia race Sloaia era Spai reece See ar ite io Refineie ora Siterla Refineie Refineie

In January 2018, there were 80 ‘mainstream’ (capacity above 2.5Mta) refineries in the EU, resol 0 l or 2ta Norway and Switzerland. Refining -Statistical Report 2018 45

FIG.34 EU, NORWEGIAN AND SWISS MAINSTREAM REFINERIES HAD 681 MILLION TONNES OF PRIMARY REFINING CAPACITY IN 2017 Source: Concawe and Oil & Gas Journal

e e Refining Refining R efineie R efineie R i R i stria rela stria rela eli tal eli tal laria itaia laria itaia roatia eterlas roatia eterlas ec Replic ola ec Replic ola ear ortal ear ortal ila Roaia ila Roaia race Sloaia race Sloaia era Spai era Spai reece See reece See ar ite io ar ite io Refineie Refineie iin nne e e ora ora Siterla Siterla Refineie Refineie iin nne e e Refineie Refineie iin nne e e

resol 0 l or 2ta resol 0 l or 2ta

The 80 mainstream refineries operating in 2017 in the EU-28, Note: Refining capacity is expressed in million tonnes per year. Norway and Switzerland had a primary refining capacity of 681 Numbers may not add up due to rounding. million tonnes in 2017. This represents a capacity decrease by some 75 million tonnes of primary refining capacity since 2010. *Status in December 2017 Over the past 12 months the refining capacity decreased in the EU by 3.25%, mainly in Italy, Germany, France, and the UK. 46 Statistical Report 2018 - Refining

FIG.35 REFINERY CLOSURES IN EUROPE Source: Platts and Concawe

200

100 it apacit l

0 200 2010 2011 2012 201 201 201 201

R R R

resol 0 l or 2ta

Since 2009, out of close to 100 refineries operating in Europe, 16 mainstream refineries were closed. Refining -Statistical Report 2018 47

FIG.36 OIL PIPELINES - MAP OF EUROPE Source: Concawe

inn a i een n A h T t L o A N B O T f C I E C o eini A f

N l u

G inn ni

00 i Rig en

engen ini e

ini iin in Re in e en 200 e een ein e

nn n en egi

e e e eg ge eg Re ine i 100 i

i i ienn

ieenien ng ien e it apacit l ne en eni Rni

n ge i

ni n ege ei e 0 n in eegin

e neneg gi 200 2010 2011 2012 201 201 201 201 n fi gi

Re Re

in ni

R R R g i in eee

in e

en resol 0 l or 2ta

RR R R R RRS R Pipelines are a long-established, safe and efficient mode of S R R S transport for crude oil and petroleum products. They are used both for short-distance transport (e.g. within a refinery or depot, R or between neighbouring installations) and long distances. RS Note: The map is based on publicly available information as An extensive network of cross-country oil pipelines in Europe well as the information gathered by Concawe and as such meets a large proportion of the need for transportation of should not be considered exhaustive. petroleum products. 48 Statistical Report 2018 - Refining

FIG.37 CAPACITY AND UTILISATION OF EUROPEAN REFINERIES Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2016

800 100

00 8 PP

M M M

MM it tilisatio rate 00

it apacit illio toes

MM 2

200 2008 200 2010 2011 2012 201 201 201

RR R S R

Since 2007, the utlisation rate of EU refineries has utilisation of European refineries oscillating around 85%. This continuously dropped from 87% to a lowest of 78% in 2014. rate is commonly accepted as a requirement for efficient In 2015, a reverse of the trend has been observed with the economic operations of a refinery. Refining -Statistical Report 2018 49

FIG.38 GHG EMISSIONS BY SECTOR IN THE EU IN 2015 Source: European Environmental Agency

800 100

00 8 PP

M M M

MM it tilisatio rate 00

it apacit illio toes

MM 2

200 2008 200 2010 2011 2012 201 201 201

RR R S R Energy supply and industry accounted for almost 43% of GHG Note: Please note that due to rounding, figures may not add up emissions in the EU in 2015. Transport, including international exactly to 100%. shipping and aviation, is supplied at 94% by oil refined products, and generates just under 23% of EU GHG emissions. 50 Statistical Report 2018 - Refining

FIG.39 CO2 EMISSIONS TREND BY SECTOR - EU28 Source: European Environment Agency

200

100 it issios o 10 leel

0 2 0 8 2 0 8 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2011 2 200 2 200 2 200 2 200 2 2001 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 10 11 1

CO emissions per sector have generally R S RR 2 been declining since 2007. Industry

SR S (processes and manufacturing) CO2 emissions decreased sharply over the RSR R S period 2007-2012 and are now between

30% and 38% below the 1990 levels. CO2 RS R emissions from transport have also been steadily decreasing since 2008 except for the ones from international aviation that are slightly increasing since 2011. Refining -Statistical Report 2018 51

FIG.40 EU REFINING SECTOR

CO2 EMISSIONS AND ALLOWANCES Source: Concawe and TOTAL

10000

120000

100000

80000

0000 it illio e 0000

20000

0 201 201 201 201 201

R S illio 2e R SSS illio 2e

The chart shows that the EU refining sector is facing a full Where emissions related to electricity production are excluded, systematic shortage across the first 4 years of the EU ETS the shortage remains in the order of 15 to 20%. phase 3 (2013-2020). This shortage can be estimated at about 27% (free allowances divided by the verified emissions). 52 Statistical Report 2018 - Refining

FIG.41 CO2 EMISSIONS PER CAPITA/REGIONS Source: International Energy Agency, WEO 2017

2016 2040 14

10 8

6 emmissions per capita 2 4

Unit: CO 2

0 Europe North Central Africa Middle East Eurasia Asia Paciﬁc America and South America

CO2 emissions vary significantly between regions falling in Europe and North America and increasing in Middle East, Eurasia and Asia Pacific. Refining -Statistical Report 2018 53

FIG.42 MAIN SOURCE SECTORS IN 2015 OF NOX Source: European Environmental Agency

1% WASTE

7% NON-ROAD 5% AGRICULTURE TRANSPORT

2016 2040 3% INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES 14 AND PRODUCT USE

11.9 12 12% ENERGY USE IN INDUSTRY 10 9.0 8.3 8.5 7.8 8 7.6 14% COMMERCIAL, 39% ROAD INSTITUTIONAL TRANSPORT AND HOUSEHOLDS 6 5.7 emmissions per capita 2 3.9 3.9 4 3.7

2.4 2.4

Unit: CO 2 1.0 0.9

0 Europe North Central Africa Middle East Eurasia Asia Paciﬁc America and South 19% ENERGY PRODUCTION America AND DISTRIBUTION

NOX is main contributor to the air quality problems found in in 2015, some other sectors such as energy production and a number of urban areas in the EU. Whilst the road transport distribution also contribute to the air quality challenge.

sector is the largest contributor with 39% of NOX emissions 54 Statistical Report 2018 - Refining

FIG.43 QUALITY OF REFINERY WATER EFFLUENT OIL DISCHARGED IN WATER Source: Concawe

0 000 e t o

r 200 t

0 s p e o t o 2000 r t

0 r t e a r o c p

s 2 100 e i r

r r e p t e

20 a e

1000 i r

1 a i c s i t i

l i 00 t i 0 000 1 1 18 181 18 18 10 1 1 2000 200 2008 2010 201 ear o Sre SR S S toesr SR R RR R toe

Over the years, the EU Refineries have significantly improved absolute amount discharged and the amount expressed the quality of refinery water effluent. The amount of oil relative to the volume of feedstock processed (throughput) discharged in effluents from reporting installations continued and the refining capacity of the installations. to decrease to extremely low levels – both in terms of the Refining -Statistical Report 2018 55

FIG.44 EVOLUTION OF GAS PRICES Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017

prices ro S ere er 10 S prices ro er telliece rop

it as prices i t

0 1 1 18 1 2000 2001 2002 200 200 200 200 200 2008 200 2010 2011 2012 201 201 201 201

Since 2009, the US industry gained a significant competitive revolution. The 2016 prices in the UK were double the average advantage over the EU industry as a result of the shale oil of US gas prices. 56 Statistical Report 2018 - Refining

FIG.45 EVOLUTION OF END-USER ELECTRICITY PRICES FOR INDUSTRY Source: International Energy Agency

20 apa 100 S rope 0 200 80

10 0

0 0 100 0

0 10 0 200 2008 200 2010 2011 2012 201 201 201 201 201 0 200 2008 200 2010 2011 2012 201 201 201 201 2 201 S

Over the past few years the US industry gained a significant Nevertheless, since mid-2014, EU electricity prices dropped competitive advantage as a result of low electricity prices. as a result of lower crude and gas prices and the gap with While European industry faced an 80% energy price increase US refiners has been significantly reduced. This situation is between 2005 and 2014, the price of electricity for the however, according to experts, due to remain overtime and the US industry only increased by 20% over the same period. EU should face again higher electricity prices. Refining -Statistical Report 2018 57

FIG.46 CHEMICAL INDUSTRY RAW MATERIAL USE Source: ICIS/CEFIC

100 0 80

0 0 0

10 0 200 2008 200 2010 2011 2012 201 201 201 201 201

The EU refining sector is closely integrated with the feedstock relies on refined products, such as naphtha and petrochemical sector. A large part of the petrochemical petroleum gases. Reﬁ ning products for our everyday life

Meet the young reﬁ ners

#YoungRefiners www.youtube.com/fuelseurope

Annual Review 2016-2017 Marketing Infrastructures - Statistical Report 2017 59

FIG.47 BIOFUELS BLENDING TARGETS BY COUNTRY Source: National Legislation (NREAP), EEA, ePure, FuelsEurope

it ercetae 0 an idiese era aate aate aate 2 stria 8 eli 8 0 laria 80 0 20 roatia prs 2 1 ec Replic 1 0 100 ear 8 stoia 10 ila 10 race era reece 8 ar rela 8 0 tal S S S S S S R S R atia 0 1 R RS R R itaia 0 0 R eor 2 alta 8 A compromise agreement on the RED II for the eterlas 8 period 2021 to 2030 was reached between ola the Council and the European Parliament in ortal 2 0 June 2018. It will oblige fuel suppliers to blend Roaia 80 in advanced biofuels and the use of other Sloaia 2 renewable energies to achieve the renewable Sloeia energy use target in transport. The use of first Spai 0 generation biofuels has been capped, while the See high risk indirect land change first generation ite io biofuels will progressively be phased out.

Note: E = Energy V = Volume MS = Member State 60 Statistical Report 2018 - Marketing Infrastructures

FIG.48 VEHICLE MARKET PENETRATION IN EU-15* Source: Emisia/ACEA

I I I I I

I I

Overall in 2017, 49.4% of all new passenger cars registered in *EU-15: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, EU-15 ran on diesel and 44.8% on gasoline, while hybrid electric Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, vehicles (HEV) accounted for 2.9% of new cars, electrically Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom chargeable vehicles (ECV) for 1.5% and other alternative fuels (such as LPG, natural gas and E85) for 1.4%. Despite tax incentives introduced by some EU Member States, the uptake of alternative vehicle technologies remains still limited. Marketing Infrastructures - Statistical Report 2018 61

FIG.49 ALTERNATIVE FUEL VEHICLES ACCOUNTED FOR 5.6% OF TOTAL PASSENGER CAR REGISTRATIONS IN THE EU IN 2017 Source: ACEA

ter ternatie ue atter ectric I I I eices eices I I

ug-in ri ectric eices ieseetr ternatie ue eices eices ta nuer registere in I I

ri ectric eice

Electric cars are slowly penetrating the EU market. These From the total of new alternative fuel vehicles registration, include battery electric vehicles (BEV), plug-in hybrid 11% are Battery Electric Vehicles. This represents only 0,6% electric vehicles (PHEV) and electric vehicles with a range of the new vehicles registrations. extender (REEV). 62 Statistical Report 2018 - Marketing Infrastructures

FIG.50 ALTERNATIVE-FUEL VEHICLES AS A PROPORTION OF THE TOTAL FLEET IN THE EEA-33 IN THE PERIOD 2005-2016 Source: European Environment Agency

1 Unit: Percentage of the total ﬂeet

0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

PASSENGER CARS BUSES LIGHT COMMERCIAL VEHICLES

According to the most recent estimates, the number of although it represents a minor proportion (0.11%) of total alternative fuel passenger cars as a proportion of the total passenger car fleet numbers. fleet has oscillated around 5% over the last five years, with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) cars making up the largest *EEA-33 - EU 28 + Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, proportion. The number of electric vehicles (EVs) has grown, Switzerland & Turkey Marketing Infrastructures - Statistical Report 2018 63

FIG.51 NUMBER OF PETROL STATIONS IN EUROPE END OF 2017 Source: National Oil Industry Associations, FPS Economy, DG Energy

uer uer f etr f etr statins statins stria tal 6 eli atia laria itaia 5 roatia eor prs alta 4 ec Replic eterlas ear ola 3 stoia ortal ila Roaia 2 race Sloaia era Sloeia 1

it er o petrol statios reece Spai Unit: Percentage of the total ﬂeet ar See 0 rela ite io 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 PASSENGER CARS BUSES LIGHT COMMERCIAL VEHICLES ora Siterla re

ers or 201 There were over 77 000 petrol stations in the EU, Norway, Switzerland and Turkey operating in 2017, fuelling some 250 ers or 201 stiate million cars and over 34 million trucks. 64 Statistical Report 2018 About FuelsEurope

FuelsEurope is a division of the European Petroleum Refiners FuelsEurope aims to inform and provide expert advice to the EU Association, an AISBL operating in Belgium. This Association, institutions and other stakeholders about European Petroleum whose members are all 41 companies that operate petroleum Refining and Distribution and its products in order to: refineries in the European Economic Area in 2017, is comprised of FuelsEurope and Concawe divisions, each having separate n Contribute in a constructive way to the development of and distinct roles and expertise but administratively consolidated technically feasible and cost effective EU policies and for efficiency and cost effectiveness. legislation.

Members account for almost 100% of EU petroleum refining n Promote an understanding amongst the EU institutions and capacity and more than 75% of EU motor fuel retail sales. citizens of the contribution of European Petroleum Refining and Distribution and its value chain to European economic, technological and social progress. Statistical Report 2018 65 Disclaimer

We have made every attempt to ensure the accuracy and IEA Disclaimer - Global Indicator Refining Margins are reliability of the information provided in this report. However, calculated for various complexity configurations, each the information is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind. optimised for processing the specific crude(s) in a specific Neither FuelsEurope nor any of its member companies accept refining centre. Margins include energy cost, but exclude responsibility or liability for the accuracy, completeness, other variable costs, depreciation and amortisation. legality, or reliability of the information contained herein. We shall not be liable for any loss or damage of whatever nature Consequently, reported margins should be taken as an (direct, indirect, consequential, or other), which may arise as a indication, or proxy, of changes in profitability for a given result of use of the information herein. refining centre. No attempt is made to model or otherwise comment upon the relative economics of specific refineries Quoting from the review - The redistribution or reproduction running individual crude slates and producing custom product of data whose source is Platts or Wood Mackenzie is strictly sales, nor are these calculations intended to infer the marginal prohibited without prior authorisation from either Platts or values of crude for pricing purposes. Wood Mackenzie. 66 Statistical Report 2018 FuelsEurope members

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