Spring 2018 www.belfercenter.org BUILDING Cyber Defenses FOR U.S. ELECTIONS by Josh Burek utdated technology. A patchwork of different systems. Front-line Undaunted, a group of young civil servants is working directly Ostaff without formal training. From the standpoint of malicious with political operatives and state and local officials to fortify cam- hackers, U.S. political campaigns and election systems present a rich paigns and elections against cyberattacks and information operations: array of vulnerable targets without critical information or training. Harvard Kennedy School students affiliated with the Belfer Center’s “Frankly, the United States is under attack,” Director of National Defending Digital Democracy Project (D3P). Intelligence Dan Coats told the Senate Intelligence Committee in Founded and led by Belfer Center Co-Director Eric Rosenbach, February, adding that Russia is attempting to “degrade our democratic the Pentagon’s former “cyber czar,” D3P has become a kind of digital values and weaken our alliances.” avengers squad, featuring cyber security professionals, communica- “This is not going to change or stop,” said National Security tions specialists, lawyers, political consultants, and national security Agency Director Admiral Mike Rogers. experts. At a time when even IT operations have taken on partisan Despite the ongoing threat, Washington—hamstrung by internal overtones, D3P is emphatically bipartisan: it is co-directed by Robby divisions—has yet to develop a comprehensive plan to bolster our Mook, Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign manager, and Matt Rhoades, democratic defenses. Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign manager.

CONTINUED ON PAGE 3 »

Securing Elections: State and local election officials from West Virginia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania tackle a simulated cyber attack on voting infrastructure during a D3P tabletop exercise in December. »

INSIDE: REMEMBERING CALESTOUS JUMA AND CHUCK COGAN ■ BELFER CENTER RANKED #1

www.belfercenter.org From the Director

here are over 7,800 think tanks in the world. TMany cover international affairs. Far fewer BLOOMBERG study science and technology. Only the Belfer Center—recently named the world’s No. 1 uni- versity research center for the fifth year in a row— leverages both domains to build a more secure, peaceful world. Their convergence at HKS is no accident. The Center’s founder, Paul Doty, was a legendary biochemist who dedicated his life to averting nuclear war. He understood that science and technology are the great levers of change in our world. And his generation recognized that while the advance of knowledge is inevitable, it must be steered in the direction of public good. The Center’s Calestous Juma, who passed on in December, exemplified that pursuit of purpose-driven progress. To ministers and heads of state, he was a sought-after adviser, pointing the way toward reforms that boosted farm yields, education standards, and economic prosperity. To the scientific Global Challenges: Belfer Center Director Ash Carter speaks during an interview on “Bloomberg Surveillance” about U.S.-China relations, North Korea, and the community, he was an unstinting champion of innovation and rigorous U.S. military during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland (January evidence. To his students, he was a passionate teacher and mentor. To all 2018). of us at the Center, he was a dear friend and colleague. We miss him. We also miss our good friend and longtime International Security Program Associate Chuck Cogan, who died in December a month shy of his 90th birthday. Chuck had an illustrious career in the CIA and shared his wisdom For Fifth Straight Year, generously with our community. ✴ ✴ ✴ Belfer Is Top University I’ve had the privilege of attending several World Economic Forums in Davos, Switzerland. This year’s gathering featured healthy debate over the Think Tank role that leading technology companies play in our lives. These organizations have connected billions of us around the world and made the sum total of human knowledge instantly accessible to all. But Davos attendees also worried that some have substituted amoral algorithms for human intelligence and adult supervision, fraying the integrity of our social fabric. As a result, some high-tech sectors are facing calls for government regulation. That debate is necessary but insufficient. What we most need is a new generation of tech innovators who are inspired to assume the civic responsibilities that come with creating changes of great consequence.

As I consider this inflection point for the relationship Teamwork: The Belfer Center community in September 2017. between technology and MARTHA STEWART For the fifth year in a row, Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for governance, the students Science and International Affairs has been ranked the best university-affiliated at HKS give me hope. research center in the world.

The rankings in the Global Go To Think Tank Index Report are produced by the As I consider this inflection point for the relationship between technol- Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program at the University of Pennsylvania’s ogy and governance, the students at Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) give Lauder Institute. The 2017 rankings, covering 7,800 think tanks, were deter- me hope. In our interactions, they invariably ask how they can be of better mined with input from more than 3,750 university faculty and administrators, service to their fellow citizens. As you’ll read in this issue, several of them journalists, policymakers, think tank scholars and executives. enlisted with the Center’s Defending Digital Democracy project, fanning out across dozens of states to meet with, and learn from, local officials to “The Belfer Center is home to a remarkable community of scholars, students, better safeguard our elections. At a time of bitter division in Washington, and staff driven by a common mission to build a more secure, peaceful world,” that kind of practical, bipartisan bridge-building between the ivory tower said Belfer Center Director Ash Carter. “I am proud that the impact of our and statehouses should make all of us proud. efforts is recognized around the world.”

2 Cyber Defenses for U.S. Elections Continued from page 1 »

D3P’s engine room is run by students. Nearly officials across the country,” two dozen HKS and MIT students have enlisted said Caitlin Conley, a U.S. with the project to align research outputs with stake- Army Major attending Harvard holder needs. To that end, 17 of the students last Kennedy School who led D3P’s fall began fanning out to states including California, efforts on the playbooks. “Our

Oregon, Nevada, Virginia, Colorado, New Jersey, recommendations are practi- STATE OF DEPT. COLORADO Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Florida to conduct field cal, and they can make a real research with officials, hear their concerns, observe difference in the 2018 elections their systems and processes, learn how they are pro- and beyond.” tecting the security and integrity of their elections, “State and local election offi- and help identify areas of vulnerability. Students cials are now on the front lines will visit additional states this semester. of a battle to maintain trust and The result of their work? Four distinct “play- confidence in America’s digital Facts from the Field: The D3P team at the Colorado Statehouse, where they met with state and local books”—practical guides to help campaign staff and democracy. We developed these election officials regarding Colorado’s elections process. state and local election officials better safeguard criti- playbooks to serve as a resource cal systems and deter and respond to misinformation. for state and local election officials, their teams, office. Other states have opted to go further in and their institutions to help build stronger cyber increasing the awareness and preparedness of their “The guidelines we provide defenses for election systems,” said Eric Rosenbach. officials by planning to conduct their own “tabletop are based on the insights “The playbooks are the result of many months of exercises” based upon the training and experiences hard work and cooperation between the D3P team provided by the D3P team. These simulations por- and concerns we heard and our national, state, and local partners.” tray outside actors deliberately attacking election from election officials The playbook recommendations are based on systems to test existing protections. across the country” D3P’s extensive field research, observation of three Although the factors that affect voting security recent elections, an in-depth survey, and multiple vary from state to state—different election methodol- —Caitlin Conley tabletop exercises conducted with bipartisan groups ogies and schedules, demographic variations, voting “Our team visited with over 34 different elec- of election officials. They also reflect best practices cultures, and constitutional requirements, among tion offices, surveyed 37 states and territories, and insights from the nation’s top software and others—the D3P team has distilled 10 recommen- and directly observed three elections across three network engineers, including from D3P’s private dations that apply universally across all jurisdictions. states, so the guidelines we provide are based on sector partners Google and CrowdStrike. Rather “I don’t think there’s just one thing that makes the insights and concerns we heard from election than simply highlight the weaknesses and vulner- a state successful. I think it’s almost like a recipe abilities of the nation’s elec- where there’s a bunch of things that have to come tion systems, the D3P team together in order for it to work,” said Jennifer strove to work directly with Nam, M.P.A. ’18, a project team leader who before election officials to develop coming to Harvard spent a decade in the U.S. measures to strengthen their Army doing intelligence work. cyber defenses and incident response capabilities. See the playbooks and learn more about the States are taking notice. Defending Digital Democracy Project at Already, West Virginia and belfercenter.org/D3P » Kentucky have shared copies For this cover story, portions of Christina Pazzanese’s Harvard of D3P’s campaign playbook Gazette article, “Wanted: A firewall to protect U.S. elections,” Listening and Learning: Jennifer Nam, member of the with all candidates seeking were used, with permission. D3P team and HKS student, listens to election officials.

3 Global Relations Israel Track-II Track-II Conference: Dialogue Connects Northeast Asia in Experts, Policymakers Strategic Transition

Middle East in Transition: Amb. Nicholas Burns makes a point during a session with MK Tzipi Livni, Belfer Center Director Ash Regional Perspectives: Victor Cha speaks about the North Korean threat during a panel Carter, and Brig. Gen. Udi Deckel on U.S. and Israeli challenges. discussion with (left to right) Ha Young-sun, Yao Yunzhu, and Gary Samore.

he Belfer Center hosted Knesset Member Tzipi Livni, Belfer n November 9-11, Executive doors, with topics ranging from U.S.- Tthe sixth annual U.S.-Israel Center Director Ash Carter, and ODirector for Research Gary China relations after the 19th Party Strategic Dialogue in November Brig. Gen. Udi Dekel offered their Samore hosted a Track II confer- Congress to economic and trade issues in partnership with Tel Aviv perspectives on the “U.S. and Israel ence on “Northeast Asia in Strategic in Asia to the risk of military conflict University’s Institute for National Facing a Middle East in Transition.” Transition” with participants from the on the Korean Peninsula. Security Studies (INSS). The dia- U.S., Republic of Korea, and China. American participants included logue was co-chaired by Professor “Both our countries The Korean delegation was Professor Richard Cooper of Harvard Nicholas Burns, Roy and Barbara face extraordinary headed by Pak In-kook, President of University; Evan Feigenbaum, Vice Goodman Family Professor of challenges in an the Korea Foundation for Advanced Chairman of the Paulson Institute the Practice of Diplomacy and unstable and violent Studies (KFAS), which provided at the University of Chicago; John International Relations, Robert Middle East.” financial support for the event. Park, Director of the Belfer Center

Danin, Senior Fellow with the —Nicholas Burns The Chinese delegation was led by Korea Working Group; and Belfer Future of Diplomacy Project, and Professor Jia Qingguo, Associate Center Senior Fellow William INSS’s Executive Director, Major At this year’s conference, the Dean of the School of International Tobey. Participants from South Korea General (ret.) Amos Yadlin. Center was fortunate to have two Studies of Peking University. included Choi Byung-il, President of For two days, high-level U.S. special sessions: former UN Secretary the Korea Association of Trade and and Israeli delegations comprised of General Ban Ki-moon spoke about “These meetings Industry Studies; Professor Kang journalists, politicians, academics, the North Korean threat and the allow for candid Myung-koo of Baruch College; Lee and policy experts met to discuss refugee crisis, and HRH Prince Turki conversations on how Geun-wook of Sogang University; some of the most pressing issues al Faisal spoke about the dramatic our three governments Lee Sook-jong, President of the East facing the United States, Israel, changes in Saudi Arabia amid the can improve Asia Institute; and Oh Seung-youn and their bilateral relationship. The sweeping campaign of arrests of cooperation against of Bryn Mawr College. In addition delegations debated the future of princes and current and former high- a common threat.” to Professor Jia and General Yao, the the Iran Nuclear Deal, the Trump level government officials. Chinese delegation included Professor —Gary Samore administration’s policy toward “This was an important meet- Zhu Feng of Nanjing University. Iran and the Middle East, what lies ing between Americans and Israelis,” The opening session of the “This is the second round of ahead in Syria and Iraq, the crisis on said Burns. “Both our countries face conference featured a panel discus- meetings we’ve held with Chinese and the Korean Peninsula, the Israeli- extraordinary challenges in an unsta- sion on responding to the North Koreans to discuss the vexing issue Palestinian divide, and U.S.-Israel ble and violent Middle East.” Korea threat, with presentations by of North Korea,” said Gary Samore. relations. Overviews of the U.S. and Professor Victor Cha of Georgetown “None of us have an easy answer, Israeli domestic political landscapes —Allison Hillegiest University, Professor Ha Young-sun but these meetings allow for candid were provided by Washington Post of the East Asia Institute in Seoul, and conversations on how our three gov- columnist Dan Balz and Knesset Major General (retired) Yao Yunzhu. ernments can improve cooperation Member Yair Lapid. The dialogue Following the public session, the against a common threat.” opened with a public event at which conference continued behind closed 4 USAF U.S. AIR FORCE U.S.

Evaluating the Nuclear Posture Review In February, the Pentagon released a new Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), a comprehensive overview of the nation’s nuclear forces, their disposition, and plans for the future. Here, Belfer Center experts share their assessments of this NPR and the future of America’s nuclear capabilities.

Graham Allison nuclear Triad, because it is the bedrock of deter- The need for these new weapons is debatable, Douglas Dillon Professor of Government rence. During the past 25 years, the United States but unlikely to be very significant in terms of “The NPR tries to make the case for investments has made no major new investments in its nuclear increasing or decreasing the risk of nuclear war.” in new, smaller ‘non-strategic’ nuclear forces, yet other countries have conducted vigor- weapons. As presented, I find the ous buildups. This history does not support the case unpersuasive. I agree that contention that U.S. investments fuel the nuclear Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall Russia’s increasing reliance on programs of others. My views are reflected in the Senior Fellow threats to use non-strategic nuclear latest Nuclear Posture Review.” “I agree with the 2018 NPR’s weapons presents a significant new emphasis on recapitalizing the challenge. But I believe our current arsenal of American nuclear enterprise nuclear and non-nuclear weapons provides a suf- James Miller and modernizing Triad deliv- ficient deterrent. If not, advocates of new weapons Senior Fellow ery systems to ensure unrivalled should explain why and demonstrate that new “Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis’s 2018 Nuclear deterrence and allied assurance. weapons could raise the nuclear threshold.” Posture Review offers continuity with past U.S. Our arsenal is aging while China, policy and plans, including those in Russia, and others aggressively pursue new the 2010 NPR. It deserves broad nuclear capabilities and adopt postures that Matthew Bunn bipartisan support. Its proposal could challenge the effectiveness of our deter- Professor of Practice for a low-yield SLBM weapon rent. Simultaneously, the U.S. must continue to “There is little doubt that the United States needs and a new nuclear-tipped sea- spearhead worldwide proliferation prevention to replace some of its aging nuclear systems if launched cruise missile are sen- initiatives, including enforcing the Iran nuclear it is going to maintain a nuclear deterrent. But sible responses to changed security agreement and leading efforts to take fissile the notion that the world’s most powerful coun- conditions, especially Russia and North Korea. materials off the global playing field.” try needs to spend more than $1 Given the President’s sole authority to direct trillion on thousands of nuclear nuclear weapons employment, the central ques- weapons, including new types, tion is whether this reasonable Mattis NPR rep- William Tobey for a vast array of missions, to resents the views of President Trump.” Senior Fellow assure its security and that of its “The new NPR returns to bipartisan verities held allies is both dangerous and wrong. before the Obama administration—a We need a broader public debate about how Gary Samore threat-based approach to great many nuclear weapons, of what kinds, in what Executive Director for Research power competition. Since the postures, for what purposes, are needed for “The ‘new’ Nuclear Posture Review of the Trump previous NPR was completed, deterrence, and about how best to reduce the administration basically re-affirms we’ve come to understand better very real dangers of nuclear war.” President Obama’s policies, espe- the threats posed by Russia, and cially replacement of the existing potentially China. Where the new NPR U.S. nuclear triad with a new gen- advances policy, it sensibly responds to changed Ash Carter eration of missiles and bombers. strategic circumstances; e.g. deploying a sea- Belfer Center Director The Trump NPR also calls for two launched nuclear cruise missile would address “I stated when I was Secretary of new types of low-yield tactical nuclear weapons, Russian violation of the INF Treaty and reassure Defense and continue to maintain which would supplement the two existing types our allies in the face of a growing DPRK threat.” that it is essential to recapitalize the of tactical nuclear weapons in the current arsenal.

5 Science & Climate Impacts “We have three options— mitigation, adaptation, and suffering. The amount of suffering in that mix can only be WORLD CONF. OF SCIENCE JOURNALISTS SCIENCE OF CONF. WORLD reduced by doing both a lot of mitigation and a lot of adaptation, and doing it starting now.” Calling out Climate Contrarians: John Holdren delivers the keynote address at the 10th World —John P. Holdren Conference of Science Journalists. Bridging Science and Societies

limate contrarians continue to undermine and seawater rise, loss of species, and reduced Under the theme “Bridging Science and Cthe urgency of immediate climate action, productivity of farms, fisheries, and forests. Societies,” the conference exposed participants particularly in the United States, despite increas- “We have three options—mitigation, adapta- to some of the world’s top science journalists and ing evidence of the devastating impacts of global tion, and suffering,” Holdren said. “The amount of practicing scientists, building take-home skills climate change, John P. Holdren, co-director suffering in that mix can only be reduced by doing and knowledge to help ensure that news about of the Belfer Center’s Science, Technology, and both a lot of mitigation and a lot of adaptation, science is intelligently conveyed to a global public Public Policy Program and former science advisor and doing it starting now.” Virtually all reputable no matter what barriers of culture, language, edu- to President Obama, said in a keynote address to studies, he added, “suggest that the economic cation, and politics stand in the way. the 10th World Conference of Science Journalists damages from not adequately addressing climate A long-time science journalist whose work 2017. The late fall conference attracted nearly change would far exceed the costs of adequately with the Belfer Center focuses on improving 1,400 science journalists from 74 countries, the addressing it.” media coverage of controversial scientific issues, largest such gathering of its kind. Russell began working with the organizing com- Holdren identified three classes of contrari- “Science journalists mittee three years ago to plan the six-day global ans—deniers, wafflers, and advocates of surren- help societies conference, hosted by the United States for the der. The wafflers are the most dangerous, he said, understand... and that’s first time. It was sponsored by the U.S. National because they seem the least unreasonable. They Association of Science Writers and Council for admit climate change is occurring but say it’s why it’s essential they the Advancement of Science Writing, working unclear how much of it is due to human influences; do their jobs well.” with the World Federation of Science Journalists

that the damage is modest; that it may even be good —Cristine Russell and host campuses, the University of California, for us; and that there is plenty of time of adapt. San Francisco, and UC Berkeley. These arguments are wrong on all counts, Holdren’s comments underscored the import- One of the most popular events was a luncheon Holdren said. But such rhetoric can raise doubt ant role the media can play in providing accurate for 600 attendees featuring three global women and impede actions essential to mitigating cli- and clear reporting on climate change and other leaders in science and technology who offered per- mate change and adapting to its extreme impacts, critical science-related issues that can impact sonal and professional perspectives on the crucial which range from increasingly severe storms, citizens regardless of where on earth they live. role of women in science, technology, engineering, floods, droughts, and diseases to rapid ice melt Holdren was invited to the global science journal- and mathematics (STEM). Moderated by Russell, ists’ gathering by Cristine Russell, the session, “Who Will Do Science? International co-chair of the international orga- Perspectives from Women in STEM Leadership,” nizing committee for the confer- included presentations by The Honorable Naledi ence and a Senior Fellow with the Pandor, South Africa’s Minister of Science and Belfer Center’s Environment and Technology, Her Royal Highness Princess Sumaya Natural Resources Program. bint El Hassan of Jordan, President of the Royal “Science journalists help societ- Scientific Society and a UNESCO Special Envoy ies understand and respond to nat- for Science for Peace, and Miyoko O. Watanabe, ural and human-caused disasters, Deputy Executive Director, Japan Science and environmental changes and chal- Technology Agency. lenges, epidemics and pandemics, Power of Press: Cristine Russell introduces a Belfer Center seminar and technological disruptions—and For more information on the conference, see: on media coverage of energy and environmental issues titled Seismic that’s why it’s essential they do their http://wcsj2017.org Shift: Climate, Energy & the Media in the Age of Trump (2017). jobs well,” said Russell. 6 As Climate Change Upends the Arctic, Innovators Winning Proposal: Gabrielle Scrimshaw speaks at the first Arctic Innovators student competition titled, “14 Ideas for a Sustainable, Seek Solutions Secure Arctic,” an event sponsored by the Arctic Initiative. by Jacob Carozza Arctic Initiative and a fellow at the Belfer Center’s best idea. The winner was Gabrielle Scrimshaw, Environment and Natural Resources Program. who proposed an investment fund for ventures cross the Arctic, rapid climate change is “All the students have so much passion to owned by indigenous people, primarily in the Ataking its toll. Melting ice and sea level rise really solve problems,” she said. “We really want booming tourism industry in northern Canada. are threatening entire communities. Areas rich to do useful work that can help the Arctic make Logadóttir is working on adapting the program in oil and gas are opening up to exploration, but useful decisions.” into a course that will be available next fall. Students the economic benefits often do not reach Arctic Some of the students’ proposals seek to uti- will again travel to Iceland and work on their own populations. For many, life in the Arctic is becom- lize emerging technologies to meet the region’s projects to solve the region’s policy challenges. ing more difficult each day. unique demands—drones that would monitor Meanwhile, students from the initial pro- The Arctic Initiative’s Arctic Innovators pro- glacier ice melt and deliver essential goods like gram have continued their work individually gram gives a select group of 14 Harvard Kennedy food and medical supplies to remote populations; this semester. Arctic Today, an online news source School students the opportunity to tackle these a digital library that uses virtual reality to share focused on Arctic issues, is publishing op-eds challenges. The students spent the fall semester and preserve food production skills. written by each student. developing ideas through sessions with Arctic Other ideas are focused on using the power of Mehek Sethi has been meeting with people leaders and experts at the Kennedy School. In national and subnational governments, acting alone involved in Arctic institutions about her proposal October, they traveled to Iceland, where they met or together, to enact change in the Arctic. One idea for an Arctic Free Trade Agreement. The Arctic with the country’s president and presented their would set up a fund for climate migrants by imposing Circle Assembly was crucial to developing her work at the Arctic Circle Assembly. a $1 levy on plane tickets in and out of the Arctic. idea, she said. The program is intended to bring more people At an event in November, the Innovators “It was incredible to see my proposal actu- into the dialogue about Arctic issues while also were challenged to condense a semester's worth ally pick up steam among key stakeholders. I am promoting innovation and entrepreneurship, said of work into a two and a half minute pitch, with excited to see where this unique opportunity leads Halla Hrund Logadóttir, a Co-founder of the the audience and a panel of judges voting on the me!” she said.

President of Iceland: Small Country, Large Impact

ow can themes from Iceland’s Cod Wars ways: creative resistance during the Cod Wars; Hwith the United Kingdom help us increase strengthening Arctic dialogue internationally; collaboration in the Arctic? How can small coun- and even making it to the World Cup in football. tries, like Iceland, make a global impact? He demonstrated that small states that aim to These were key questions H.E. Guðni Th. have international influence must be humble, Jóhannesson, President of Iceland, discussed during extremely knowledgable, self-critical, and willing his visit to Harvard Kennedy School in January to innovate. that attracted more than 1,000 students and faculty. Regarding the Arctic, the President insisted The President’s visit was co-hosted by the Belfer that “environmental concerns should come first.” Center’s new Arctic Initiative, which aims to shape He also elaborated on Iceland’s comparative Arctic-related policymaking through promoting advantage when it comes to familiarity with the research, dialogues and education. Before the ocean. As a country that relied on it for centuries, public address, the President engaged in a discus- he explained the need to safeguard the ocean sion with Dean Douglas Elmendorf, Belfer Center ecosystem from increasing pollution. Co-Director Eric Rosenbach, and the founders of Next year, Iceland will take on the chairman- Northern Exposure: Icelandic President Guðni Th. the Arctic Initiative John Holdren, Henry Lee, ship of the Arctic Council and continue to punch Jóhannesson walks through Harvard Kennedy School with Belfer Center Co-Director Eric Rosenbach. and Halla Hrund Logadóttir. above its weight by facilitating sustainable policies The President’s message was simple. in the constantly changing Arctic region. Iceland has punched above its weight in many 7 CELEBRATING CALESTOUS JUMA Calestous Juma died on December 15 following a long battle with cancer. He was Professor of the Practice of International Development at Harvard Kennedy School and Director of the Belfer Center’s Science, Technology, and Globalization Project. He also directed the Center’s Agricultural Innovation Policy in Africa and Health Innovation Policy in Africa projects, and he taught highly popular executive education courses on innovation, technology, and entrepreneurship.

hen Calestous Juma passed was this sort of constant change in Waway in December, heartfelt his environment....They were forced tributes poured in from heads of state to innovate. Both his parents were real and global NGOs, from government innovators. I think that’s where that officials and scientific organizations, spirit comes from.” from fellow professors, students, and Throughout his life, Juma worked colleagues, and from readers of his to innovate, fix, and improve life in Twitter posts who had never met him. Africa and around the world. (See page 9.) As a young teacher in Mombasa, Juma was a global renaissance Juma sent so many letters to the Daily man of science and technology: Nation that they hired him as their an elected member of the Royal first science correspondent. Later, he Society of London, the U.S. National earned a masters and then a doctorate Academy of Sciences, the World from Sussex University, moved back Observing tissue propegation of bananas at Academy of Sciences, the UK Royal to Kenya and founded the African a genetic technology lab in Nairobi (2008). Academy of Engineering, and the Centre for Technology Studies— African Academy of Sciences. bringing researchers and policymakers Juma worked tirelessly to better “Once in a while, Growing up on the shores of together. Known for his groundbreak- leverage scientific and technological humankind gets Kenya’s Lake Victoria in a remote ing research on biological diversity, knowledge for communities around village that often flooded, Juma Juma became Executive Secretary of the world, from STEM education and blessed with learned early about challenges, the United Nations Convention on agricultural innovation to 3D print- prodigious talents resilience, and innovation. Biological Diversity and helped pave ing and mobile cook stoves. With to light the world “The family kept getting pushed the way for a UN treaty signed by more his help, Kenya became one of the and dispel darkness. out of their home and then trying to go than 150 governments in 1992 to pro- first countries to use smartphones Such was Professor back,” his widow, Alison Field-Juma, tect the survival of diverse species and for money transfer, and herders in Calestous Juma.” told The New York Times. “So there ecosystems. Somalia exchanged and tracked —Sindiso Ngwenya their goats by painting them with Secretary General, COMESA “Calestous was just a wonderful colleague— their mobile numbers. He was also warm, ever upbeat and enthusiastic, always a principal drafter of the Kenyan intel- Schrag, Juma’s science and technol- ready to consider seriously the views of lectual property law. In his book The ogy colleagues at the Kennedy School, others, always looking for ways to contribute New Harvest, he wrote that Africa—a wrote that he brought to their work to the Center, the School, and the world.” reservoir of biodiversity well-adapted together “a first-class mind, a deeply to arid conditions—could help feed informed focus on some of the most —William Clark, John Holdren, Venky Narayanamurti, and Dan Schrag the world despite climate change. important issues at the intersection of Always in tune with current science and technology with develop- challenges and opportunities, Juma’s ment and sustainability, an admirable 2016 book Innovation and Its Enemies commitment to teaching and advis- reminds us that fights over technology ing, a mind-boggling work ethic, and are hardly new, chronicling a recur- his exceptional standing as a global ring pattern of public skepticism and public intellectual.” social adjustment. Using new tech- “He was also just a wonderful col- nology himself, he amassed more league,” they said, “warm, ever upbeat than 100,000 Twitter followers. His and enthusiastic, always ready to con- former project coordinator, Katherine sider seriously the views of others, Gordon, said Juma loved using both always looking for ways to contribute to Twitter and humor to connect with the Center, the School, and the world.” and share his research with the world.

With John Holdren, former science advisor to President William Clark, John Holdren, For more tributes and information, Obama, at a Belfer Center seminar to discuss Juma’s newest Venky Narayanamurti, and Dan see belfercenter.org/Calestous book, Innovation and its Enemies (October 2017).

8 “Once in a while, humankind gets blessed with prodigious talents to light the world and dispel

darkness. Civilizations and breakthroughs in STEWART MARTHA human history have arisen from such gifted people. Such was Professor Calestous Juma.”

—Sindiso Ngwenya Secretary General, COMESA

“His clear-eyed devotion to innovation is now more important than it was when he began his career–and this is something we can all learn from him.”

—Uhuru Kenyatta President of Kenya

“Saddened about the loss of a great man and scholar, Calestous Juma.”

—Al Gore former U.S. Vice President

“We have lost a brilliant mind who was dedicated to innovation, education and Africa’s prosperity.” “[Prof. Juma] was an inspiration “A world class mind, a fountain of —Paul Kagame to young graduate students knowledge, an inspiration, a rare gentleman. President of Rwanda ... We loved his humor, Africa has lost one of its best intellectual curiosity & optimism.” minds on the global stage. RIP.”

—Subhash Ghimire —Akinwumi A. Adesina former Harvard Kennedy President, African Development Bank “Always a voice to be listened to on science, School student technology, & sustainable development.”

—Helen Clark former Prime Minister, New Zealand “From the time I met him in 2010, he gave so much to me and to Nigerians. He was a true African Patriot….He advised me when we confronted the Ebola virus. The establishment “I never knew what to expect when I answered the of the Lagos Innovation Advisory Council phone: sometimes he would be calling to tell me a was informed by his Idea. His thoughts funny story; other times to tell me to come meet on agriculture and farming were most the former Prime Minister of Kenya. He was much helpful in shaping our state agro policy.” more than a boss —he was like family to me.” —Babatunde Raji Fashola Nigerian Minister of Works, Power and Housing —Katherine Gordon former Project Coordinator

“Thank you for all you did to make the world a better place; “A brilliant analyst and advocate of innovation thank you for caring and doing so to improve human life all over the world.” much for the less fortunate. I was deeply honored to know you.” —Steven Pinker Johnstone Family Professor of Psychology at Harvard University —Mark Tercek

JOMO KENYATTA UNIVERSITY JOMO KENYATTA CEO, The Nature Conservancy

“A passionate advocate of innovation, Prof. Juma believed that biotechnology particularly had the potential to spur a green revolution in Africa similar to the one that helped contain acute famines in Asia in the 1960s.”

—C.S. Prakash Dean, College of Arts and Sciences; H.M. THE QUEEN AND BRITISH CEREMONIAL ARTS, LTD. ARTS, AND BRITISH CEREMONIAL THE QUEEN H.M. Professor of Plant and Soil Receiving an honory degree from Jomo Kenyatta Science, Tuskegee University With Queen Elizabeth II at Buckingham University of Agriculture and Technology, prior to Palace to judge the first Queen Elizabeth addressing the graduating class (2012). Prize for Engineering competition (2013).

9 Belfer Center in Action SGT. AMBER I. SMITH / DOD AMBER I. SGT.

Official Image: Former Secretary of Defense and current Belfer Center Director Democracy Dilemmas: Donna Brazile, former Interim Chair of the Democratic Ash Carter (right) was joined by Secretary of Defense James N. Mattis for National Committee and a Harvard Kennedy School Shorenstein Fellow, speaks at a ceremony in the Pentagon to unveil Carter’s official portrait. America’s 25th a Belfer Center director’s lunch on the question “Can American Democracy Survive Secretary of Defense, Carter was recognized for 35 years of extraordinary Hyper Partisan Poliarization, Rising Extremism and Voter Suppression?” John Deutch service to the nation. (left), a member of the Center’s Board of Directors, took part in the discussion. GAIL OSKIN GAIL MARTHA STEWART MARTHA

Rapid Response: Juliette Kayyem, Director of the Center’s Homeland Security Palestinian Perspective: Salam Fayyad, Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Project, talks with former Department of Homeland Security Director Jeh (2007-2013) and Middle East Initiative Senior Fellow, speaks with students Johnson (right) in February before the JFK Jr. Forum “Lessons Learned from following his JFK Jr. Forum address in February. He discussed the proposition 2017 Crisis Response.” The panel included ThinkThrough Group’s José Andrés of a two-state solution in the region and the need for Palestinian unity and for (left), Walmart’s Jason Jackson, and Red Cross’s Brad Kieserman. Palestinians to understand and conform to international norms. MARTHA STEWART MARTHA

AI Issues: Jason Matheny (right), Director of the Intelligence Advanced Research Advising the President: Susan Rice, former National Security Advisor to President Projects Activity (IARPA), speaks at a JFK Jr. Forum on “The Public Policy Challenges Obama and current Belfer Center non-resident Senior Fellow, speaks with of Artificial Intelligence.” He and Belfer Center Co-Director Eric Rosenbach students and fellows about her responsibilities in the White House and about discussed enhanced intelligence capabilities presented by the AI in the intelligence security challenges facing the United States during that time and now. Her duties field and possibilities and dangers created by AI-controlled weapons systems. included providing daily national security briefings to the president.

10 Belfer Center in Action MARTHA STEWART MARTHA

Cartoons and Climate: Pulitzer Prize-winning political cartoonist Tom Toles (right) Financial Future: Former Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker, who currently and Award-winning climate scientist Michael E. Mann discuss their collaborative heads PSP Capital, speaks with Professor Nicholas Burns, Faculty Director of book, The Madhouse Effect, during an Environment and Natural Resources Program the Belfer Center’s Future of Diplomacy Project, during a JFK Jr. Forum. The event co-sponsored by the Shorenstein Center. The book uses satire to explore discussion focused on global economic challenges and issues facing the U.S., climate change denial in the face of overwhelming scientific consensus. such as trade agreements and employment.

Regional Relationships: India Air Force Air Vice-Marshal (ret) Arjun Defense Dialogue: Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph Dunford Subramaniam, Visiting Fellow at the Harvard Asia Center, and Non-Resident speaks about defense-related issues during a discussion with students and Senior Fellow at the Mitchell Institute of Aerospace Power Studies, speaks on the fellows at a seminar hosted by the Belfer Center’s Defense Project. Major evolving India-China relationship during a Future of Diplomacy Project seminar General (ret) William Rapp (right), Director of the Defense Project, introduced moderated by Nicholas Burns. Gen. Dunford and moderated the discussion.

Technology for Good: Helen Grenier, iRobot and CyPhy founder, speaks during Innovation Models: Eric Lander, Founding Director of the MIT/Harvard Broad a Belfer Center Technology and Public Policy Project event with area technology Institute and a leader of the international Human Genome Project, speaks at a leaders. Ash Carter (right) and Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business and Center board of directors lunch about current opportunities and challenges in Government Director Lawrence Summers (not pictured) co-hosted the event science, technology, and innovation. Attendees included Science, Technology, with area technology experts, including Harvard Professor Lawrence Katz (left). and Public Policy Co-Director Dan Schrag (left).

11 COURTESY KEVIN RYAN KEVIN COURTESY Spotlight: Halla Hrund Logadóttir

Finding Commonality: Ambassador Douglas Lute (2nd from right) and BG Kevin Ryan (right) confer with Russian General Anatoly Kulikov during a break in their conference at the Russian General Staff Academy. Also pictured (left to right): Russian Elbe Group Executive Director Mr. Victor Kulikov and interpreter Ms. Elena Mareeva (interpreter). U.S.-Russia Relations: Differences and a Point of Agreement

ieutenant General (ret) Douglas Lute, former General Sergei Chvarkov; former MoD Director of Former Foreign Minister Ivanov called them LU.S. NATO Ambassador and a Belfer Center International Relations General Leonid Ivashov; “economic warfare.” Senior Fellow, and Brigadier General (ret) Kevin and Director of Social-Political Research Institute In their presentations, Ryan and Lute rebutted Ryan, Belfer Center Associate and founder of the at the Academy of Sciences Gennady Osipov, in what they saw as the Russians’ misinterpretation U.S.-Russia Elbe Group, traveled to Moscow in late addition to Kulikov, Lute, and Ryan. of facts and discussed events of the past 27 years, fall to participate in a conference on U.S.-Russia “One cannot overstate the depth to which the which differed from Russian themes of subjugation Relations hosted by the Club of Military Leaders at different understandings about the events of the past and betrayal by the West. Lute emphasized exam- the Russian General Staff Academy. The conference 27 years have created different interpretations of how ples in which the U.S. and Russia cooperated on participants discussed the state of relations between the U.S. and Russia got to their current relationship,” security threats like Bosnia, terrorism, nuclear secu- the two countries and explored ways forward. Ryan said in his report on the conference. “While rity, and even Kosovo after an initial testy period.

One point on which both U.S. and Russian speakers agreed is

COURTESY KEVIN RYAN KEVIN COURTESY the necessity for mechanisms of military to military contact to reduce the risk of an accidental war.

the American speakers One point on which both U.S. and Russian Open Exchange: General of the Army and senior Russian member of the Elbe recalled a relationship speakers agreed is the necessity for mechanisms Group Anatoly Kulikov (left) in Moscow with Ambassador Douglas Lute. which began with part- of military to military contact to reduce the risk The Moscow conference, “Russia-USA: nership and after Crimea eroded into a break in of an accidental war. This, they agreed, would Prospects for Mutual Relations: Enemies, Partners, relations, the Russian speakers largely presented a allow political leaders to more quickly and more or Allies,” included about 100 retired three- and history in which the U.S. had continuously meddled reliably determine the facts of any surge in mil- four-star generals and about 50 active duty colonels in Russian affairs and sought to prevent any return itary activity or circumstances of any accidental and officer-professors from the academy who are of Russia as a world power. clash between forces operating in close proximity. studying for a year before becoming the Russian The Russian speakers’ views were largely in Ryan and Lute met with new U.S. Ambassador military’s future flag officers. Lute and Ryan, whose synch with those expressed by President Putin: to Russia Jon Huntsman Jr. before the conference presentations were part of the 2017 Elbe Group The West—U.S. and NATO in particular—has and with new Ambassador to NATO Kay Bailey exchanges, were the only U.S. participants and the taken advantage of Russia in its weakened state Hutchison, afterward. During discussions with only foreign attendees. The host, General Anatoliy since the Cold War and sought to keep Russia Hutchison and NATO Secretary General Jens Kulikov, former Minister of Internal Affairs and from returning to the status of a “world power.” Stoltenberg, they also emphasized the need for the senior Russian member of the Elbe Group, gave The U.S. has sought to destabilize Russia like it direct military-to-military contact between the introductory and closing remarks. sought to destabilize other countries through U.S. and Russia to avoid an accident escalating Speakers at the conference included former color revolutions and promotion of “so-called” into unwanted war. Minister of Foreign Affairs Igor Ivanov; Deputy democracies. The latest example of this effort are Commander of the Russian General Staff Academy the economic sanctions levied against Russia. Based on a report by Kevin Ryan.

12 Spotlight: Halla Hrund Logadóttir Where Climate, Security, and Development Meet by Josh Burek

or Halla Hrund Logadóttir, the challenges posed by rapid climate Fchange in the Arctic truly hit home. Growing up on her grandparents’ sheep farm in Iceland, Logadóttir could see the crags of a massive glacier on the horizon. While sheep grazed on sloping volcanic fields of emerald WIBE LUND MATS green grass, she learned to drive tractors and fix engines. Today, she’s using that hands-on experience to protect the world’s most fragile ecosystem. The Arctic, according to Logadóttir, has a reverse Las Vegas problem: what happens there does not stay there. While the harmful impacts of climate change are felt first and most acutely in the Arctic region, the consequences—from melting ice caps to spoiled ecosystems—quickly spill over into the rest of the globe. Making wise policy decisions now, however, could not only mitigate the risk of environmental harm but also set the stage for sustainable economic development that helps indigenous populations. Convening industrial lead- ers, diplomats, scientists, and “I want to make sure Back Home: A view of Logadóttir’s family farm in Iceland. environmentalists to craft such that we’re making policies is the mission of the the right decisions trade routes to energy extraction and food production, a changing Arctic Belfer Center’s Arctic Initiative, won’t just redraw the map; it will change the trajectory of human develop- which John Holdren and now so we won’t have ment in the 21st century. Henry Lee co-founded and regrets in the future.” “You might just think of a polar bear way up there and it doesn’t seem lead along with Logadóttir. so relevant, but an ice-free Arctic would have massive consequences for “I’ve always had this strong feeling of wanting to do something good for my international security, global weather patterns, and the livelihood of millions.” country and its region,” she says. “I want to make sure that we’re making the One of the Arctic Initiatives’s top priorities is developing environmentally right decisions now so we won’t have regrets in the future....My heart is in this!” sensitive policies that address challenges in the fast-changing region and Earlier, Logadóttir was a Director of Iceland School of Energy at Reykjavík advance the well-being of indigenous populations. Logadóttir is proud of the University in Iceland and an advisor on energy and Arctic issues to some creative plans that HKS students affiliated with the Initiative have developed of the country’s top leaders. this year to strike that balance. Many people think of the Arctic as a remote, pristine area disconnected “You can see these 14 students working on different ideas for the Arctic,” from the rest of the world. But Logadóttir points out the importance of the she says. “If you look at what they have managed to achieve over a short Arctic with a map that puts the North Pole in the middle. “It’s funny how period, it gives me hope that we can solve some of these issues. We’ve man- our world view is set based on a traditional map. But this area is such a big aged to set a very collaborative tone. We aren’t just doing research; we’re also part of our planet.” contributing solutions on policy issues through social innovation.” Melting ice caps from climate change could generate a host of new prob- Just as Iceland is a unique convergence of fire and ice, volcanoes and glaciers, lems—and unexpected opportunities. From rising seas and new international climate risk and opportunity, Logadóttir says the Arctic Initiative is a micro- cosm of the Belfer Center: different scholarly domains CIA converging for the sake of a more secure, peaceful world. “We aren’t just doing research; we’re also contributing solutions on policy issues.”

“No one 100 years from now wants to be known for making terrible decisions,” she says. “Deep down inside, everyone wants to build a sustainable future. We have a unique opportunity at HKS to help make that happen.”

13 SENIOR MASTER SGT. ADRIAN CADIZ SGT. SENIOR MASTER

Innovation Experimentation: Then-Secretary of Defense Ash Carter speaks with Defense Innovation Unit Experimental employees as he arrives at Moffett Field, Calif., May 11, 2016. Technological Change and Opportunity—

with Civic Responsibility by Ash Carter hen I began my career in elementary Technologists in my generation understood will require retraining. The biotech revolution of Wparticle physics, the great figures who that we had an obligation to use our knowledge to coming decades will be even more consequential taught and inspired me had been part of the steer technology in the direction of public good. than the digital revolution. Manhattan Project generation that developed It’s obvious that technologists today have the same the atomic bomb. They were proud to have cre- obligation, and also that society is in need of prac- The biotech revolution of ated a “disruptive” technology that ended World tical, analytically-driven solutions to the problems coming decades will be War II and deterred a third world war. But their that arise from fast-paced technological change. even more consequential understanding of the technology also gave them When I was Secretary of Defense, a priority than the digital revolution. a deep regard for the awesome risks that came of mine was to address this issue in defense by with those technologies. building bridges between the Pentagon and the Solutions to problems like these will emerge As a consequence, they dedicated themselves tech community. But defense is far from the only only if the new generation of young tech innovators to inventing, in parallel, the technologies behind area where the public interest sorely needs the is encouraged and inspired to assume the civic arms control and nuclear reactor safety. By working input of technical people. The Internet and social responsibilities that come with creating changes on both the bright opportunities and the complex media have also created new opportunities for of great consequence.

dilemmas of nuclear technology, these scientists hostility, lies, and isolation. Automation will elim- This is a brief excerpt from from Carter’s MIT Technology Review tried to round out its effect on humanity. inate the jobs of millions of people, while new jobs article, “What I Learned from the People Who Built the Atom Bomb,” technologyreview.com/s/609557.

One Year into Trump Term: Bets Won and Lost

Sample Questions from the Poll: hat happened in the world during the Along with each question, you can view the first year of the Trump presidency? Yogi correct answers with a breakdown of how the 6. Russia: Assessed from the perspective of American W national interests, relations with Russia will be: Berra warned against making bets—especially respondents answered, and you can read some [a] Substantially better than they were in the last 2 years about the future. Nevertheless, because the of the most noteworthy reasoning we received. of the Obama administration (32% of responses) real world offers no opportunity to opt out, the We are pleased to announce our two win- [b] Substantially worse (26%) Belfer Center—in collaboration with POLITICO ners: Ralph Melcher of Santa Fe, New Mexico, [c] About the same (43%) Magazine—invited readers in January 2017 to and Paul Schrager of Sudbury, Massachusetts. 13. Deportations: In year one, the Trump administration summon their courage and register their bets Each answered 15 out of 20 questions cor- will deport ___ undocumented immigrants: for 2017. The deadline for placing “bets” was rectly. Both winners will receive $500 and a [a] Fewer than 100,000 (37%) [b] 100,000-500,000 (42%) February 7, 2017. signed copy of Graham Allison’s book Destined [c] 1/2 to 1 million (16%) More than 1,100 people took part in the for War: Can America and China Escape [d] More than 1 million (5%)

contest, suggested by the Center’s Graham Thucydides’s Trap? 15. Iran: Obama’s signature nuclear agreement with Iran will be: Allison. The tallies are charted on the Center Congratulations, Paul and Ralph, and [a] Overturned by Trump (34%) website at belfercenter.org/bets2017. thanks to all who placed bets! [b] Canceled by Iran (18%) [c] Maintained despite additional U.S. sanctions (48%) 14 JONATHAN ERNST/AP JONATHAN

AI Pros and Cons: Tom Corn of VMware, gestures during a Strategic Listening: Deputy National Security Advisor Dina Powell discussion on the impact of maching learning on cybersecurity. (right), in a meeting with Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Panelists also included (from left) moderator Sameer Bhalotra of Mohammed bin Salman (not pictured), in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, StackRox, Jennifer Lin of Google, and Dan Chenok of IBM Center along with U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis (center) and for the Business of Government. U.S. Embassy Charge d’Affaires Christopher Henzel in April 2017. Cyber Security Project Dina Powell Joins as Launches Initiative on Senior Fellow Artificial Intelligence Center Also Welcomes New International and Machine Learning Council Members and Staff by Mari Dugas ina Habib Powell, President The Belfer Center is also pleased to n keeping with the Belfer Center’s their thoughts on the threats from DTrump’s former Deputy welcome several new members of Imandate on science and interna- machine learning, current cyber- National Security Advisor for its International Council: tional affairs, the Cyber Security security challenges as a result, and Strategy, has been named a Senior Project has launched a new research some of the policy questions stem- Fellow with the Center’s Future of • Dave DeWalt has been a CEO in initiative on Artificial Intelligence ming from this technology. Diplomacy Project. the technology industry for 17 (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) Center Director Ash Carter Powell will share her expertise years, most recently with FireEye, and their implications for cyberse- opened the panel in front of a robust on American foreign policy, the McAffee, and EMC. curity. Led by Michael Sulmeyer, audience of faculty, fellows, and stu- Middle East, and international Director of the Cyber Security dents from Harvard Kennedy School politics with Kennedy School stu- • Steve Loughlin, a partner in Accel Project, the initiative explores and other Boston universities. The dents, faculty, and fellows in semi- Partners, previously headed the themes of conflict in cyberspace. panelists encouraged transparency nars, study groups, and meetings on internal Articificial Intelligence Both AI and ML will play a growing of ML research and software and campus during the coming year. She initiative at Salesforce. role in national defense and security. grappled with the question of how will also contribute to the Future Cyber Security Project fellow Ben humans and machines can work of Diplomacy Project’s objective of • Steven R. Perles is founder of the Buchanan began the focus on AI together in the field of national secu- advancing the critical importance Perles Law Firm, PC. and ML with his June 2017 Belfer rity and defense. of diplomacy, addressing national Center Report, “Machine Learning security threats, and focusing on • Chuck Robbins is Chairman and for Policy Makers.” Both AI and negotiations in international poli- CEO of Cisco. To kick off the next wave of the ML will play a tics today. In addition, she will work AI and ML initiative, the Cyber with the Kennedy School’s Center • Paul Tramantano is a Senior Security Project in February hosted growing role in for Public Leadership. Managing Director and Wealth an expert panel on the implications national defense “Dina Powell is one of our coun- Manager at First Republic of machine learning for cybersecu- and security. try’s finest public servants,” said Investment Management. rity. Headed by Sameer Bhalotra, Nicholas Burns, Faculty Director CEO of StackRox and former Senior Also in February, the Belfer of the Future of Diplomacy Project. We also are pleased to be joined by Director for Cyber Security at the Center co-sponsored a JFK Jr. Forum “She was a key figure in the Trump new Center staff members: White House, the panel brought with Jason Matheny, Director of administration’s Middle East together experts from Silicon Intelligence Advanced Research policy and other leading issues and Bogdan Belei and Joy Li, Research Valley to offer the tech perspective Projects Activity (IARPA), on the brings extensive experience from Assistants for Center Director on machine learning. Jennifer Lin public policy challenges of AI. her service in the George W. Bush Ash Carter; Julie Gardella, S t a ff (Director, Product Management at In the coming months, the Cyber administration.” Assistant for the Environment and Google), Dan Chenok (Executive Security Project will also publish a Prior to joining the Trump Natural Resources Program; Erika Director of the IBM Center for new research agenda on the role of Administration, Powell spent over Manouselis, Project Assistant for The Business of Government), and AI in national defense. a decade at Goldman Sachs where the Future of Diplomacy Project; Tom Corn (Senior Vice President she was a partner and served as and Rose Garcia, Staff Assistant and General Manager of Security global head of the firm’s impact for Executive Director for Research Products at VMware) offered investment business. Gary Samore.

15 Featured Fellows

Middle East Initiative Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program Jonas Bergan Draege Mahsa Rouhi Protests and Party Politics on Understanding Iran, from the the Ground in Turkey Inside and Out

by Jacob Carozza by Celia Carbone

hough he was raised in a small town in the west of Norway, Jonas Bergan ahsa Rouhi’s research bridges the academic and policy worlds on TDraege has always had the Middle East on his mind. Mnuclear and international security issues in the Middle East. Having The postdoctoral fellow at the Belfer Center’s Middle East Initiative traveled grown up in Iran, she brings a unique perspective to her work. to the region as a young boy with his father, a librarian who worked on resto- Rouhi was raised in Tehran, the country’s capital. Her parents converted ration projects in Egypt and Gaza. Draege spent further time in the Middle their home into a private elementary school and she envisioned herself East during the Arab Spring, interning at the Norwegian embassy in Jordan returning to help pioneer innovative education systems. Her years spent in and working as a translator in Syria for a news organization based in Lebanon. the United Kingdom and United States at university sparked her interest in When his PhD program began at the European University Institute about international relations. two years later, millions of Turks were taking to the streets to protest the Rouhi joined the Project on Managing “I want to be able increasingly authoritarian government of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the Atom as an intern in 2008 followed by to point my readers in what would be dubbed the Gezi Park protests. an internship at Harvard Law School. She to something they “Suddenly you had a more visible—at least to outsiders—reaction to returned in the 2010-2011 academic year have been missing.” frightening tendencies in the Turkish government,” Draege said. as a predoctoral Stanton Nuclear Security Draege’s research focuses on the reactions of Turkish political parties to Fellow. Rouhi is currently a postdoctoral Research Fellow at the International the protests. He examined countless hours of speeches in parliament, looked Security Program and Project on Managing the Atom. at budget data, and spoke with contacts in Turkish institutions. He found that “The most difficult part was to separate my feelings towards Iran as my country the main opposition parties have largely co-opted the rhetoric of the protests, and my home from an objective academic analysis of the situation,” Rouhi said. but missed their window of oppor- “This is a prime Rouhi believes the insights she gained from living in Iran and studying tunity to force real policy change. example of a reaction to at a leading university add depth to her work and a deeper understanding Erdoğan’s repression of political democratic backsliding.” of the region and issues of concern internationally. freedoms has since accelerated. “What I always hope to have is an impact,” she said. “I want to be able to “I think this is a prime example of a reaction to democratic backsliding,” point my readers to something they have been missing or misinterpreting, Draege said. “And I think this has lessons for not only a country of 81 million for example, when they read about Iran’s nuclear program.” people, but also for a large number of countries in the world that are now Political and social issues regarding Iran are often misinterpreted by the experiencing the same kind of democratic backsliding.” media and reinforce negativity about the country, Rouhi said. Growing up At the Middle East Initiative, Draege is expanding his work into a book, and studying in post-revolutionary Iran informs her on-the-ground research and plans to return to Turkey in late March for more on-the-ground research. and allows her to present a different perspective. At the Belfer Center, she He also plans to teach this summer at the University of Oslo, his alma has been working to make her academic work and writing more accessible mater, and record new episodes of his Norwegian-language social science to policymakers and to a general readership in the United States and Iran. podcast “Politikk og Røvere” (“Politics and Robbers”). Rouhi shares her research and ideas with policymakers, including the Draege’s fellowship at the Middle East Initiative ends in June. He praised Iranian ambassador to the United Nations and Iranian Foreign Minister the initiative’s approach to political science, which he said emphasizes sys- Mohammad Javad Zarif. She hopes she can draw upon these relationships tematic collection and thorough examination of data. to facilitate an ongoing dialogue between Iranian experts and U.S. experts “I’m so happy to be at the Middle East Initiative,” Draege said. “You have at the Belfer Center. some of the best researchers in political science in the Middle East based there, in the immediate vicinity but also at the initiative itself.” 16 Remembering Chuck Cogan MARTHA STEWART MARTHA

Project on Managing the Atom/International Security Program Elmar Hellendoorn

U.S. Nuclear Strategy and the Chuck Cogan with former CNN foreign affairs commentator Jill Dougherty and the Belfer Center’s Kevin Ryan following a JFK Jr. Protection of Europe Forum on Russian politics in 2014. by Jonathan Edel by Susan Lynch hile his grammar school classmates gleefully followed sports cars r. Charles G. “Chuck” Cogan, Signal Corps during the Korean Wand soccer stars, Elmar Hellendoorn would get excited about the Dan International Security War. In 1954, he joined the CIA newest airplanes and tanks. No surprise, growing up next to a U.S. airbase in Program (ISP) Associate since where he had overseas tours in Soesterberg, Netherlands. “F-15s were always flying over and as a young kid 2006, died peacefully in his sleep Asia, Africa, and Europe; his last you would stand on a hill so you could see the planes taking off,” he recalled. on December 14, 2017 at his home overseas posting was in Paris from “I was very consciously living the last days of the Cold War—I felt it.” in Cambridge, Massachusetts. His 1984–1989, where he was station says Hellendoorn. He remembers the excitement of running into the kitchen ninetieth birthday would have been chief. as a five-year old in 1989, yelling “‘Mom, mom, people on TV are saying in January 2018. “Chuck Cogan was a the Wall has fallen!’” Cogan was a frequent partici- wonderful colleague With the Cold War over and the former Soviet Union cooperating with pant over the years in ISP seminars and a great asset the West to secure its nuclear arms, it was easy to see nuclear strategy as a and other Center events, contrib- for the International declining priority. “For many years there was a lot of optimism about nuclear uting his insights and anecdotes disarmament,” Hellendoorn said. from his long career as a Central Security Program.... The euphoria over the supposed “end of “Many of the Intelligence Agency (CIA) officer He was a man of history,” however, did not take into account basic premises and his subsequent career as a great integrity, the post-Cold War reality of a more diverse of deterrence are historian. who did not trim global nuclear landscape. still very actual, Professor Stephen Walt, ISP his views to fit today’s fashions.” With a more crowded nuclear playing but the context Faculty Chair, offers this remem- field, there are new threats and dynamics. brance: “Chuck Cogan was a won- has changed —Stephen Walt In Hellendoorn’s words, “many of the basic derful colleague and a great asset for premises of deterrence are still very actual, massively.” the International Security Program. Cogan came to the Kennedy but the context has changed massively.” He was a true patriot and distin- School initially as a Senior Research As a post-doc Research Fellow at the Project on Managing the Atom/ guished public servant, as well as Fellow with the Intelligence and International Security Program, Hellendoorn explores this new landscape a genuine intellectual with a deep Policy Program. with a focus on European policy. “Europeans are pondering whether they can appreciation of other cultures. Most After retiring from the CIA in always trust the U.S. to use nuclear weapons for the defense of Western Europe, of all he was a man of great integ- 1991, Cogan earned a Doctor of even if that’s going to cost the destruction of U.S. cities,” Hellendoorn said. rity, who did not trim his views to Public Administration degree from With his research on the early days of NATO, Hellendoorn examines fit today’s fashions and always told the Kennedy School. His doctoral how Europe and the U.S. approached this question in the 1950s and 60s. He you exactly what he thought. I will dissertation was published as his explains that at the time, the thinking in the U.S. was that “If Europe were miss his sharp insights and warm first book, Oldest Allies, Guarded lost to the Soviets, then the entire Cold War might be lost.” good humor.” Friends: the United States and France With the end of the Cold War, the U.S. pivot to Asia, and the Trump After graduating from Harvard Since 1940, (Praeger, 1994). presidency, some observers believe that the U.S. may no longer consider College in 1949 with B.A. in History, Cogan would publish seven protecting Europe a vital interest. Hellendoorn is also examining the history Magna Cum Laude, Cogan worked more books, in English and French, of European-U.S. nuclear cooperation because “You see parallels with the as a journalist before serving as a in the subsequent years. contemporary situation.” Second Lieutenant in the U.S. Army 17 Hot off the Presses

Israeli National Security: Coercion: The Power to Cyber Mercenaries: The Square and the A New Strategy for an Hurt in International The State, Hackers, and Tower: Networks Era of Change Politics Power and Power, from the By Charles D. Freilich, Senior Fellow, Edited by Kelly M. Greenhill, Research By Tim Maurer, Master in Public Policy, Freemasons to Facebook International Security Program Fellow, International Security Program 2011 and Peter Krause, Former Research By Niall Ferguson, Board Member, Oxford University Press (March 2018) Cambridge University Press (Jan. 2018) Fellow, International Security Program Belfer Center Oxford University Press (January 2018) Penguin Press (January 2018) In Israeli National Security, Chuck Cyber Mercenaries explores the Freilich presents an authoritative Scholars have analyzed the causes, secretive relationships between From the cults of ancient Rome analysis of the military, diplomatic, dynamics, and effects of coercion for states and hackers. As cyberspace to the dynasties of the Renaissance, demographic, and societal challenges decades, but previous works have has emerged as the new frontier from the founding fathers to Israel faces today, to propose a com- principally focused on a single state for geopolitics, states have become Facebook, The Square and the prehensive and long-term Israeli employing conventional military entrepreneurial in their sponsor- Tower tells the story of the rise, fall national security strategy. The heart means to pressure another state to ship, deployment, and exploitation and rise of networks, and shows of the new strategy places greater alter its behavior. In contrast, this of hackers as proxies to project how network theory—concepts emphasis on restraint, defense, and volume captures fresh developments, power. Such modern-day mercenar- such as clustering, degrees of sep- diplomacy as means of addressing both theoretical and policy-relevant. ies and privateers can impose sig- aration, weak ties, contagions and the challenges Israel faces, along with The chapters in this volume focus on nificant harm undermining global phase transitions—can transform the military capacity to deter and, if tools (terrorism, sanctions, drones, security, stability, and human rights. our understanding of both the past necessary, defeat Israel’s adversaries, cyber warfare, intelligence, and forced These state-hacker relationships and the present. while also maintaining the resolve of migration), actors (insurgents, social therefore raise important questions its society. By bringing Israel’s most movements, and NGOs) and mecha- about the control, authority, and use “Captivating and compelling.... critical debates about the Palestinians, nisms (trilateral coercion, diplomatic of offensive cyber capabilities. While Ferguson manages both to tell a demography, Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, and economic isolation, foreign-im- different countries pursue different good story and provide important U.S. relations, and nuclear strategy posed regime change, coercion of models for their proxy relationships, insight into the specific qualities that into sharp focus, the strategy Freilich nuclear proliferators, and two-level they face the common challenge of power successful networks.” proposes addresses the primary chal- games) that have become more prom- balancing the benefits of these rela- —Ludwig Siegele lenges Israel must address in order to inent in recent years, but which have tionships with their costs and the Technology Editor, The Economist chart its national course. yet to be extensively or systemati- potential risks of escalation. cally addressed in either academic “A must read, an exhaustive and or policy literatures. “Cyber Mercenaries offers the first FORTHCOMING ground-breaking study of Israel’s systematic scholarly treatment of how Kissinger the national security. Building on an “This volume takes a fresh but and why governments use proxies to Negotiator: Lessons extensive analysis of the threats Israel focused look at coercion in our time. do their bidding in cyberspace.” from Dealmaking at the faces today, and its capabilities for Together the chapters constitute a cre- —Ron Deibert Highest Level dealing with them, Freilich proposes ative and economical (re-)introduction Director, Citizen Lab, By James K. Sebenius, R. Nicholas a comprehensive new national secu- to an enduring tool of international, Munk School of Global Affairs, Burns, and Robert H. Mnookin rity strategy. It will inform public and and sometimes domestic, politics.” University of Toronto Harper Collins, May 2018 expert debate for many years to come.” —Barry Posen —Dan Meridor Ford International Professor of For more Belfer Center books, see: Former Cabinet Minister, Israel Political Science, MIT belfercenter.org/books

Compiled by Susan Lynch, ISP/STPP 18 Newsmakers

CIA 2017: “Best Books”

Professor Graham Allison’s book, MAGNOLIA PICTURES MAGNOLIA Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? has been listed as one of The New York Times’s 100 Notable Books of 2017, Financial Times’s “Best Politics Books William Tobey Receives CIA Award Samantha Power Featured in New of 2017,” and The Times (of London) for Libya Article Documentary, The Final Year Books of the Year, and has made the Senior Fellow William Tobey received the Central Professor Samantha Power is featured in The Final short-list for the Lionel Gelber Prize. Intelligence Agency’s Studies in Intelligence Award Year, a documentary that provides a unique insiders’ for his “outstanding contribution to the literature of account of President Obama’s foreign policy team Professor Dara Kay Cohen is the intelligence” through his article “Cooperation in the during their last year in office. The film offers a view co-winner of the International Libya WMD Disarmament Case” published in Studies in of the inner workings of the Obama administration as Studies Association’s ISSS 2018 Intelligence (December 2017), Tobey was presented the Obama, John Kerry, Power, and Ben Rhodes prepare to Best Book Award for her book, award by DDNI Susan M. Gordon at the CIA in January. leave office after eight years. See finalyearfilm.com for Rape During Civil War, “a timely and more information. important study that sheds new light on the phenomenon of rape during non-international armed conflict.” Sheila Jasanoff Wins Raimar-Lüst Wendy Sherman named “Diplomat Research Award of the Year” The American Energy Society named Professor Sheila Jasanoff, Belfer Center faculty Ambassador Wendy Sherman, Belfer Center Senior Professor Meghan O’Sullivan the affiliate, won the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation Fellow, has been named Foreign Policy’s National Security 2017 “Energy Writer of the Year” Raimar-Lüst Award for groundbreaking research on Diplomat of the Year. Sherman, the lead U.S. negotiator for her book Windfall: How the New science and technology studies. As part of the award, for the Iran nuclear agreement, was Under Secretary of Energy Abundance Upends Global she will spend time in Germany on several projects State for Political Affairs from 2011–2015. Politics and Strengthens America’s including on climate change and global governance and Power and for her New York Times the management of geoengineering. commentary “How Trump Can Harness the U.S. Energy Boom.”

Ambuj Sagar Named Head of School Jeffrey Karam Wins Handel Prize for Professor Arne Westad’s The Cold at Indian Institute of Technology Best Article War: A World History was named one of Visiting Scholar Ambuj Sagar has been named Head Research Fellow Jeffrey G. Karam won the Christopher Financial Times’s Best History Books of the School of Public Policy at the Indian Institute Andrew-Michael Handel Prize for the best article of 2017 for its “detailed coverage of Technology, Delhi. Sagar is also a member of the of 2017, titled “Missing Revolution: The American of events in Africa, Asia and Latin Indian Government’s Expert Committee on Low-Carbon Intelligence Failure in Iraq, 1958,” published in the America as well as the familiar territory Strategies for Inclusive Growth. journal Intelligence and National Security. of US-Soviet relations, the German question and eastern Europe.”

Can China Back Down? Crisis De-escalation in the Shifts in Warfare and Party Unity: Explaining China’s Vol. 42 No. 3 Shadow of Popular Opposition Changes in Military Strategy Winter 2017/18 Kai Quek and Alastair Iain Johnston M. Taylor Fravel

International Security is America’s Would popular opinion prevent China’s leaders from Two factors determine whether China makes major backing down in an international crisis? Responses to a changes in military strategy: shifts in the international leading journal of security affairs. recent survey experiment suggest that Chinese leaders conduct of warfare and unity of the Chinese Communist The International Security journal could use several strategies to defuse the public’s bellicosity. Party leadership. is edited at Harvard Kennedy Leaders will resist corruption once in power. School’s Belfer Center and published quarterly by the MIT Archives and Inference: Documentary Evidence in Case How Civil Wars End: The International System, Press. Questions may be directed Study Research and the Debate over U.S. Entry into Norms, and the Role of External Actors World War II to [email protected]. Lise Morjé Howard and Alexandra Stark Christopher Darnton Historically, most civil wars have ended with the military defeat Follow us on Twitter International relations scholars increasingly rely on primary of the losing side. In the 1990s, by contrast, civil wars usually @journal_is documents, including those found during archival research. How ended with a negotiated settlement. What accounts for this can they do so most effectively? anomaly? Compiled by International Security staff

19 19 Nonprofit Org. U.S. Postage PAID The Robert and Renée Belfer Center for Nashua, NH Science and International Affairs Permit No. 375 Ash Carter, Director Eric Rosenbach, Co-Director

79 John F. Kennedy Street Cambridge, MA 02138 www.belfercenter.org

Belfer Center Newsletter Spring 2018

EDITOR: Sharon Wilke Associate Director of Communications [email protected]

DESIGNER: Andrew Facini Publications and Design Coordinator [email protected] Josh Burek Director of Global Communications and Strategy [email protected] Arielle Dworkin Digital Communications Manager [email protected] Bennett Craig Photographer / Multimedia Producer [email protected] The Belfer Center has a dual mission: (1) to provide leadership in advancing policy-relevant knowledge about The Communications Office was assisted in the production of this newsletter by Monica Achen, Celia Carbone, Jacob Carozza, Andrew DiIorio, Jonathan the most important challenges of international security and other critical issues where science, technology, Edel, Alison Hillegeist, Daniel Khalessi, Halla Logadottir, Joy Li, Susan environmental policy, and international affairs intersect, and (2) to prepare future generations of leaders for Lynch, Cristine Russell, and Gary Samore. these arenas. Subscribe to Belfer Center publications at belfercenter.org/subscribe All photos by Belfer Center unless otherwise noted.

Belfer in Brief Harvard’s Kennedy and Divinity Linking Science to Action, Schools Launch Religion, Harvard Will Be Fossil Fuel-Free Conflict, and Peace Initiative by 2050, Fuel-Neutral by 2026

A new collaboration between Harvard University announced in Harvard Kennedy School and Harvard February an ambitious new climate Divinity School will enable scholars to goal striving to end its use of fossil fuels study the role that religious commu- by 2050. The new Harvard climate LAWRENCE JASON nities play in violent conflict—and in action plan also includes an interim promoting sustainable peace. goal to become fossil fuel-neutral by Part of the One Harvard Sustainable 2026 (green.harvard.edu/climate). Peace Initiative, the new Religion, Linking scientific research to Conflict, and Peace Initiative (RCP) will bring together the Belfer Center’s Middle action, the new climate action plan is based on the recommendations of a East Initiative with the Divinity School’s Religious Literacy Project and initiative multi-disciplinary Climate Change Task Force convened in 2016 and composed on Religions and the Practice of Peace. The initiative is funded by Ramez and of faculty experts, students, and senior administrators. Tiziana Sousou. “We are facing a time when the notion of shifting the world’s foundations Tarek Masoud, Sultan of Oman Professor of International Relations, and for energy choices in a more sustainable, life-friendly direction is feasible tech- Hilary Rantisi, Director of the Middle East Initiative, will lead the initiative at nologically, economically, and politically,” said William Clark, Harvey Brooks the Kennedy School. Professor of International Science, Public Policy and Human Development at “The RCP initiative will enable us to leverage the expertise and enthusiasm Harvard Kennedy School and faculty co-chair of the Task Force. of faculty and staff from both Schools to prepare future leaders, advance schol- “We need to reduce radically the use of fossil fuels not only because of their arship, and build bridges between academia and practice around these critical catastrophic impacts on climate,” Clark said, “but also because of their massive yet insufficiently studied issues,” said Rantisi. “At a crucial and precarious time direct damages to human health and the natural environment.” in contemporary global affairs, this initiative could not be more timely or urgent.”

Follow us on our various @BelferCenter social media channels:

20 Printed on 100% recycled paper